Presented by Robert Richardson, Laura Schmitt Olabisi, Kurt Waldman (Michigan State University) at the Africa RISING East and Southern Africa Review and Planning Meeting, Malawi, 14-16 July 2015

1. Impact of sustainable intensification on
landscapes and livelihoods (SILL) in Zambia
Africa RISING East and Southern Africa Review and Planning Meeting,
Malawi, 14-16 July 2015
Robert Richardson, Laura Schmitt Olabisi, Kurt Waldman
Michigan State University

2. SILL Project Objectives
1. Provide an evidence base for linkages between field
and farm-scale sustainable intensification (SI)
interventions and climate change mitigation
2. Provide recommendations to inform the design of an
integrated framework for programming in Zambia
 Pilot sites: Eastern and Lusaka Provinces, Zambia

3. Sustainable
Intensification
Interventions
Agroforestry
Conservation
Agriculture
Forest
Conservation
Biodiversity /
Wildlife
Conservation
Agricultural-Environmental Linkages

4. Participatory System Dynamics Modeling
 Introductory workshop – generate causal loop diagrams
 Review literature and data sets
 Build national model in Vensim
 Participatory modeling workshop – refine parameters
 Build provincial-level model (Eastern and Lusaka)

5. Major Trends in Zambia
 Relatively low population density
 Population growth
 Projected to increase 10x by 2100
 High rates of urbanization
 Deforestation (150,000—300,000 ha/year)

6. Population
Fuel
Food
Grassland
Forest
Agricultural
Decision-
making
Wildlife
populations
Model Structure

7. National Level Deforestation
(baseline, 2010-2060)
14% loss18% loss
Deciduous and evergreen forest
20 M
17.5 M
15 M
12.5 M
10 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : landscape_v5_baseline
Miombo woodland
40 M
37.5 M
35 M
32.5 M
30 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Miombo woodland : landscape_v5_baseline

8. National Model
Deforestation by Driver
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Time (Year)
ha/Year
deforestation for agriculture : landscape_v5_baseline
area of forest needed for charcoal : landscape_v5_baseline
area of forest needed for fuelwood : landscape_v5_baseline
forest clearing for commercial timber : landscape_v5_baseline
forest clearing for rural home construction : landscape_v5_baseline

9. Miombo Clearing by Driver
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Time (Year)
ha/Year
miombo clearing for ag : landscape_v5_baseline
area of miombo needed for charcoal : landscape_v5_baseline
area of miombo needed for fuelwood : landscape_v5_baseline
miombo clearing for commercial timber : landscape_v5_baseline
miombo clearing for rural home construction : landscape_v5_baseline
National Model

10. 1.23% loss rate in
2010
0.93% loss rate in
2010
Deciduous and evergreen forest
300,000
225,000
150,000
75,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baseline
Miombo woodland
600,000
450,000
300,000
150,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : lusaka_baseline
Lusaka Baseline

11. Deforestation by Driver
30,000
22,500
15,000
7500
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Time (Year)
ha/Year
deforestation for agriculture : lusaka_baseline
area of forest needed for charcoal : lusaka_baseline
area of forest needed for fuelwood : lusaka_baseline
forest clearing for rural home construction : lusaka_baseline
Lusaka Model

12. Miombo Clearing by Driver
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Time (Year)
ha/Year
miombo clearing for ag : lusaka_baseline
area of miombo needed for charcoal : lusaka_baseline
area of miombo needed for fuelwood : lusaka_baseline
miombo clearing for rural home construction : lusaka_baseline
Lusaka Model

13. Effect of Drought on Forest Cover
A drought affecting 70% of agricultural area occurs every 40 years, and 40% of agricultural
area every 8 years. Farmers turn to charcoal production for income in years in which their
crops are affected. If farmers engage in CA, they are not affected.
Deciduous and evergreen forest
300,000
150,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baseline
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_drought
Miombo woodland
600,000
300,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : lusaka_baseline
Miombo woodland : lusaka_drought

14. Effects of Maize Yield Increase on
Forest Cover
Maize yields increase at 3x their current rate.
Deciduous and evergreen forest
300,000
150,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baseline
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_yield
Miombo woodland
600,000
300,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : lusaka_baseline
Miombo woodland : lusaka_yield

15. Effect of Full Electrification on
Forest Cover
Deciduous and evergreen forest
300,000
150,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baseline
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_electrification
Miombo woodland
600,000
300,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : lusaka_baseline
Miombo woodland : lusaka_electrification

16. Effect of Fuel Efficient Stoves on
Forest Cover
Deciduous and evergreen forest
300,000
150,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baseline
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_efficient_stoves
Miombo woodland
600,000
300,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : lusaka_baseline
Miombo woodland : lusaka_efficient_stoves

17. Eastern Baseline
0.74% loss rate in
2010
0.54% loss rate in
2010
Deciduous and evergreen forest
2 M
1.75 M
1.5 M
1.25 M
1 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baseline
Miombo woodland
3 M
2.75 M
2.5 M
2.25 M
2 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : eastern_baseline

18. Eastern Province
Deforestation by Driver
20,000
15,000
10,000
5000
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Time (Year)
ha/Year
deforestation for agriculture : eastern_baseline
area of forest needed for charcoal : eastern_baseline
area of forest needed for fuelwood : eastern_baseline
forest clearing for rural home construction : eastern_baseline

19. Eastern Province
Miombo Clearing by Driver
30,000
22,450
14,900
7350
-200
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Time (Year)
ha/Year
miombo clearing for ag : eastern_baseline
area of miombo needed for charcoal : eastern_baseline
area of miombo needed for fuelwood : eastern_baseline
miombo clearing for rural home construction : eastern_baseline

20. Effect of Drought on Forest Cover
A drought affecting 70% of agricultural area occurs every 40 years, and 40% of agricultural
area every 8 years. Farmers turn to charcoal production for income in years in which their
crops are affected. If farmers engage in CA, they are not affected.
Deciduous and evergreen forest
2 M
1.5 M
1 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baseline
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_drought
Miombo woodland
3 M
2.5 M
2 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : eastern_baseline
Miombo woodland : eastern_drought

21. Effects of Maize Yield increase on
Forest Cover
Maize yields increase at 3x their current rate.
Deciduous and evergreen forest
2 M
1.5 M
1 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baseline
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_yield
Miombo woodland
3 M
2.5 M
2 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : eastern_baseline
Miombo woodland : eastern_yield

22. Effect of Full Electrification on
Forest Cover
Deciduous and evergreen forest
2 M
1.5 M
1 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baseline
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_electrification
Miombo woodland
3 M
2.5 M
2 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : eastern_baseline
Miombo woodland : eastern_electrification

23. Effect of Fuel Efficient Stoves on
Forest Cover
Deciduous and evergreen forest
2 M
1.5 M
1 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baseline
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_efficient_stoves
Miombo woodland
3 M
2.5 M
2 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : eastern_baseline
Miombo woodland : eastern_efficient_stoves

24.  Charcoal production and clearing for agriculture are
both important drivers of deforestation
 Charcoal dominates in Lusaka
 Clearing for agriculture dominates currently in EP
 Charcoal dominates both in the future
 Agricultural land clearing is driven by rural
population growth, not low yields/land abandonment
 Charcoal production is driven by urban population
growth and energy demand
Conclusions