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Impact of Sustainable Intensification on Landscapes and Livelihoods (SILL)

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Presentation by Robert Richardson in Lusaka, Zambia on 15 June, 2015 at the Improving Integration among Agriculture, Forestry, and Land Tenure Meeting

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Impact of Sustainable Intensification on Landscapes and Livelihoods (SILL)

  1. 1. Impact of Sustainable Intensi2ication on Landscapes and Livelihoods (SILL) Robert Richardson, Laura Schmitt Olabisi, Naomi Sakana, and Kurt Waldman Improving Integration among Agriculture, Forestry, and Land Tenure 15 June 2015 Lusaka
  2. 2. SILL Project Team §  Dr. Robert Richardson, MSU §  Dr. Naomi Sakana, CIFOR §  Dr. Laura Schmitt Olabisi, MSU §  Dr. Kurt Waldman, MSU
  3. 3. Project Objectives 1.  Provide an evidence base for linkages between 2ield and farm-scale sustainable intensi2ication (SI) interventions and (i) forest conservation and (ii) biodiversity conservation in Zambia 2.  Provide recommendations to inform the design of an integrated framework for programming in Zambia §  Pilot sites: Eastern and Lusaka Provinces, Zambia
  4. 4. Sustainable Intensifica/on Interven/ons Agroforestry Conserva/on Agriculture Forest Conserva/on Biodiversity / Wildlife Conserva/on Agricultural-Environmental Linkages
  5. 5. Participatory System Dynamics Modeling § May 2014: Workshops in Mfuwe and Lusaka §  Activities designed to identify causal relationships related to agriculture & environment in Zambia §  Causal loop diagramming activities § August 2014: Participatory modeling workshop in Chisamba
  6. 6. Major Trends in Zambia § Relatively low population density § Population growth §  Projected to increase 10x by 2100 § High rates of urbanization
  7. 7. Implications § Food security– demand for food § Demand for cropland (migration to land abundant areas) § Degraded soils § Low non-farm rural employment
  8. 8. Forest Data Gaps § Forest cover (estimates vary from 30 million Ha to 60 million Ha of forest) § Deforestation rates (150,000—300,000/yr) § Deforestation versus degradation
  9. 9. Wildlife Data Gaps § Wildlife population data § Poaching rates § Response to habitat loss
  10. 10. Agricultural Income § Do SI activities increase yields? § Can we attribute increased income solely to SI practices? § What do people do with increased agricultural income?
  11. 11. Popula/on Fuel Food Grassland Forest Agricultural Decision- making Wildlife popula/ons Model Structure
  12. 12. Sources of Deforesta/on Represented in Model §  Agriculture §  Charcoal produc/on §  Fuelwood collec/on §  Home construc/on §  Commercial /mber *
  13. 13. Na/onal Level Deforesta/on over /me, baseline 14% loss18% loss Deciduous and evergreen forest 20 M 17.5 M 15 M 12.5 M 10 M 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) ha Deciduous and evergreen forest : landscape_v5_baseline Miombo woodland 40 M 37.5 M 35 M 32.5 M 30 M 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) ha Miombo woodland : landscape_v5_baseline
  14. 14. Na/onal Model Deforestation by Driver 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Time (Year) ha/Year deforestation for agriculture : landscape_v5_baseline area of forest needed for charcoal : landscape_v5_baseline area of forest needed for fuelwood : landscape_v5_baseline forest clearing for commercial timber : landscape_v5_baseline forest clearing for rural home construction : landscape_v5_baseline
  15. 15. Na/onal Model Miombo Clearing by Driver 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Time (Year) ha/Year miombo clearing for ag : landscape_v5_baseline area of miombo needed for charcoal : landscape_v5_baseline area of miombo needed for fuelwood : landscape_v5_baseline miombo clearing for commercial timber : landscape_v5_baseline miombo clearing for rural home construction : landscape_v5_baseline
  16. 16. Model Valida/on §  Model reports 156,364 ha. loss of all forest types in 2010 §  167,000: FAO (2010) §  298,000: UN-REDD (2010) §  World Bank: 0.33% annually (our model: 0.33% in 2010). §  However, we do not include deforesta/on from mining
  17. 17. Lusaka Baseline 1.23% loss rate in 2010 0.93% loss rate in 2010 Deciduous and evergreen forest 300,000 225,000 150,000 75,000 0 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) ha Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baseline Miombo woodland 600,000 450,000 300,000 150,000 0 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) Miombo woodland : lusaka_baseline
  18. 18. Lusaka Province Deforestation by Driver 30,000 22,500 15,000 7500 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Time (Year) ha/Year deforestation for agriculture : lusaka_baseline area of forest needed for charcoal : lusaka_baseline area of forest needed for fuelwood : lusaka_baseline forest clearing for rural home construction : lusaka_baseline
  19. 19. Lusaka Province Miombo Clearing by Driver 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Time (Year) ha/Year miombo clearing for ag : lusaka_baseline area of miombo needed for charcoal : lusaka_baseline area of miombo needed for fuelwood : lusaka_baseline miombo clearing for rural home construction : lusaka_baseline
  20. 20. Effect of Drought on Forest Cover A drought affecting 70% of agricultural area occurs every 40 years, and 40% of agricultural area every 8 years. Farmers turn to charcoal production for income in years in which their crops are affected. If farmers engage in CA, they are not affected. Deciduous and evergreen forest 300,000 150,000 0 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) ha Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baseline Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_drought Miombo woodland 600,000 300,000 0 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) Miombo woodland : lusaka_baseline Miombo woodland : lusaka_drought
  21. 21. Effect of Full Electrifica/on on Forest Cover Deciduous and evergreen forest 300,000 150,000 0 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) ha Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baseline Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_electrification Miombo woodland 600,000 300,000 0 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) Miombo woodland : lusaka_baseline Miombo woodland : lusaka_electrification
  22. 22. Effects of Maize Yield increase on Forest Cover Maize yields increase at 3x their current rate. Deciduous and evergreen forest 300,000 150,000 0 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) ha Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baseline Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_yield Miombo woodland 600,000 300,000 0 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) Miombo woodland : lusaka_baseline Miombo woodland : lusaka_yield
  23. 23. Effect of Fuel Efficient Stoves on Forest Cover Deciduous and evergreen forest 300,000 150,000 0 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) ha Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baseline Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_efficient_stoves Miombo woodland 600,000 300,000 0 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) Miombo woodland : lusaka_baseline Miombo woodland : lusaka_efficient_stoves
  24. 24. Eastern Baseline 0.74% loss rate in 2010 0.54% loss rate in 2010 Deciduous and evergreen forest 2 M 1.75 M 1.5 M 1.25 M 1 M 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) ha Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baseline Miombo woodland 3 M 2.75 M 2.5 M 2.25 M 2 M 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) Miombo woodland : eastern_baseline
  25. 25. Eastern Province Deforestation by Driver 20,000 15,000 10,000 5000 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Time (Year) ha/Year deforestation for agriculture : eastern_baseline area of forest needed for charcoal : eastern_baseline area of forest needed for fuelwood : eastern_baseline forest clearing for rural home construction : eastern_baseline
  26. 26. Eastern Province Miombo Clearing by Driver 30,000 22,450 14,900 7350 -200 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Time (Year) ha/Year miombo clearing for ag : eastern_baseline area of miombo needed for charcoal : eastern_baseline area of miombo needed for fuelwood : eastern_baseline miombo clearing for rural home construction : eastern_baseline
  27. 27. Effect of Drought on Forest Cover A drought affecting 70% of agricultural area occurs every 40 years, and 40% of agricultural area every 8 years. Farmers turn to charcoal production for income in years in which their crops are affected. If farmers engage in CA, they are not affected. Deciduous and evergreen forest 2 M 1.5 M 1 M 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) ha Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baseline Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_drought Miombo woodland 3 M 2.5 M 2 M 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) Miombo woodland : eastern_baseline Miombo woodland : eastern_drought
  28. 28. Effect of Full Electrifica/on on Forest Cover Deciduous and evergreen forest 2 M 1.5 M 1 M 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) ha Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baseline Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_electrification Miombo woodland 3 M 2.5 M 2 M 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) Miombo woodland : eastern_baseline Miombo woodland : eastern_electrification
  29. 29. Effects of Maize Yield increase on Forest Cover Maize yields increase at 3x their current rate. Deciduous and evergreen forest 2 M 1.5 M 1 M 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) ha Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baseline Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_yield Miombo woodland 3 M 2.5 M 2 M 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) Miombo woodland : eastern_baseline Miombo woodland : eastern_yield
  30. 30. Effect of Fuel Efficient Stoves on Forest Cover Deciduous and evergreen forest 2 M 1.5 M 1 M 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) ha Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baseline Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_efficient_stoves Miombo woodland 3 M 2.5 M 2 M 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) Miombo woodland : eastern_baseline Miombo woodland : eastern_efficient_stoves
  31. 31. Conclusions §  Charcoal and clearing for agriculture are both important stories §  Charcoal dominates in Lusaka; agriculture dominates currently in EP §  Charcoal dominates both in the future §  Agricultural land clearing is driven by rural popula/on growth, not low yields/land abandonment §  Charcoal produc/on is driven by urban popula/on growth and energy demand

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