http://www.pembina.org/event/b-c-advanced-conservation-and-efficiency-association-agm Tom-Pierre Frappé-Sénéclauze May 31, 2017

1. Deep emissions reduction
in the existing building
stock
Sketch of a retrofit strategy
for B.C.
Tom-Pierre Frappé-Sénéclauze
Senior Advisor, Pembina Institute
BC-ACE annual assembly
May 31, 2017
@tompierrefs

2. 2
Leading Canada’s transition
to clean energy
The Pembina Institute is a non-profit think-tank that
advocates for strong, effective policies to support
Canada's clean energy transition.

3. Outline
— Sectoral targets
— Rate and depth of retrofits needed
— Barriers & strategies
— Recommendations
— Next steps
3

4. Reference
case
CLP + Fed.
Carbon price
-33%
2020
-30% from
2005, based
on federal
target
-80%
2050
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Annual emissions in Mt CO2e
(+ forestry credits)
B.C. emissions
CIMS modeling by Navius

5. Proposed building sector targets
40-50%
by 2030
80-100%
by 2050

6. Emissions from B.C. buildings
6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
GHGemissionsfrombuildings(Mt)
Business as usual
Net-zero ready policy
Net-zero ready policy
+
Retrofit strategy
40%-50%
2030
80%-100%
2050
Targets:
3% retrofit rate
@ 60% average GHG reduction
=
electrify 1 out of 2
25% GHG reduction in rest

7. 3% per year…
Homes MURBs ICI
Current
stock
1 million
25,000
(575,000 units)
60,000
(100 million m2)
3%
30,000
per year
800 per year
(17,000 units)
1,800 per year
(3 million m2)

8. How does that compare?
Data: Gov. of B.C.
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Post-auditspermonth
%ofeligiblestockretrofitted
ecoENERGY v.i
ecoENERGY v.i /
LSBC v.i
LSBC v.ii
LSBC v.iii
ecoENERGY
v.ii LSBC v.iv
HERO
Bonu
s v.i &
ERS
Average GHG reduction: ~ 26%

9. 3% per year…
Homes MURBs ICI
Current
stock
1 million
25,000
(575,000 units)
60,000
(100 million m2)
3%
30,000
per year
800 per year
(17,000 units)
1,800 per year
(3 million m2)
LiveSmart +ecoEnergy
at their peak
(triple their average)
+
Electrify 1 out of 2

10. Economic impact of retrofit program
Photo: CC BY-NC-ND 2.0
$750M – 1 Billion
Invested per year
$4 - 8 Billion
GDP growth
8,000 - 11,000
Jobs created

11. What policies would get us there?
11
Climate Leadership Team Clean Energy Canada
Carbon tax $10 / year
$110 by 2025
$8 / year
$80 / t-CO2e by 2025
Building Code NZR by 2025 NZR by 2025
Equipment
standards
‘that transition market to high-
efficiency electric heating’
Zero-emissions space +
water heating by 2025
Building Sector GHG reductions
2030 50% 64%
2050 N/A 97%
Policy proposals and modeled GHG reduction

12. 12

13. BUSINESS
CASE
$
$
$
$
SIMPLIFIED ACCESS
RETROFITS AT
SCALE
• Carbon pricing
• Retrofit codes
• Public financing
CONSUMER
AWARENESS
• Electrification strategy
DEEP
EMISSIONS
REDUCTIONS
• Demand
aggregation
• Innovative financing
mechanisms
• Integrated delivery
• Energy disclosure
• Valuation of non-energy
benefits INDUSTRY CAPACITY
Conditions for success
13

14. Loss in energy advisor capacity
14
0
100
200
300
400
500
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
#ofregisteredenergyadvisorsinB.C.
#ofregisteredenergyadvisorsinCanada
201620152014201320122011201020092008
Canada
B.C.

15. BUSINESS
CASE
$
$
$
$
SIMPLIFIED ACCESS
RETROFITS AT
SCALE
• Carbon pricing
• Retrofit codes
• Public financing
CONSUMER
AWARENESS
• Electrification strategy
DEEP
EMISSIONS
REDUCTIONS
• Demand
aggregation
• Innovative financing
mechanisms
• Integrated delivery
• Energy disclosure
• Valuation of non-energy
benefits INDUSTRY CAPACITY
Strategies
15

16. Benefits of benchmarking
— Energy and cost savings
— Feedback on government
and utility programs
— Create market metric to
value energy
performance*
— Enables machine-learning
driven innovation*
* Only if publicly disclosed

17. Benchmarking in B.C.?
Ontario: required
for buildings
>50,000 SF
Pan-Canadian
Framework:
benchmarking by
2019
Richmond, Surrey?

18. EnerGuide education and outreach…
must lead to requirement
18

19. $2.8
Trillion
Invested in real
estate companies
that report on
their ESG
performance

20. Public financing
— Include performance requirements
(‘green strings’) on funded projects
— Create a branch of Canada
Infrastructure Bank dedicated to
aggregation of EE projects
20

21. Project aggregation
Today:
Companies tell owners what is
available for retrofits
Incremental. Case by case.
Tomorrow:
Owners collectively define
criteria for retrofits
Private companies innovate to
meet this pooled demand
Deep retrofit as a
(customizable) product21

22. WELCOME
by Jasper van den Munckhof
BEAUTIFUL, COMFORTABLE AND AFFORDABLE HOMES FOR LIFE.

23. Next Steps: How can we work together?
Photo: Lauren Parnell Marino, CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

24. Grow the coalition…
Subset of the 100+ signatories: local governments, businesses, industry associations, etc.
Call to Action on Climate and Energy in the Building Sector

25. … to engage local and provincial
governments on:
— Energy Step Code adoption and
implementation
— Priorities for new ministers
— UBCM benchmarking resolution
(Richmond)
25

26. Tom-Pierre Frappé-Sénéclauze
tompierrefs@pembina.org
@tompierrefs
pembina.org
Subscribe – our perspectives to your inbox.
twitter.com/pembina
facebook.com/pembina.institute

27. Building stock evolution
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
BuildingFloorArea(millionm2)
Pre-2000
construction
2000-2010
construction
Net-zero energy
ready
Current code and high
performance

28. Building stock evolution
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
BuildingFloorArea(millionm2)
Pre-2000
construction
2000-2010
construction
Net-zero energy
ready
1/3
2/3 1/2
1/2
TODAY

29. Emissions from buildings - BAU
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
GHGMt
Pre-2000
construction
2000-2010
construction
Current code and high
performance
Gains from improved codes
balance out growth in demand.
No net reduction.

30. 30
pre-2000
construction
2000-2010,
typical
construction
Energy
efficient
Net-Zero
Ready
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
GHG(Mt) Residential sector GHGs — CLP + carbon price

31. 31
Standard
construction
Energy
efficient
Net-Zero
Ready
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
GHG(Mt) Commercial sector GHGs — CLP + carbon price

33. Energy efficiency
Transfer of capital from energy sector to construction
and manufacturing sectors
33

34. 34
$1Mspent
5.3 jobs
in energy sector
13-18 jobs
in energy efficiency sector
Sources: University of Massachusetts & energy efficiency industrial forum
Redirecting investments in
construction creates more jobs

35. 35
A global market
$300B
Photo: Japan Times Data: IEA, 2016

36. B.C. well positioned to compete
36