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Impact of sustainable intensification on landscapes and livelihoods (SILL) in Zambia

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Presented by Robert Richardson, Laura Schmitt Olabisi, Kurt Waldman (Michigan State University) at the Africa RISING East and Southern Africa Review and Planning Meeting, Malawi, 14-16 July 2015


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Impact of sustainable intensification on landscapes and livelihoods (SILL) in Zambia

  1. 1. Impact of sustainable intensification on landscapes and livelihoods (SILL) in Zambia Africa RISING East and Southern Africa Review and Planning Meeting, Malawi, 14-16 July 2015 Robert Richardson, Laura Schmitt Olabisi, Kurt Waldman Michigan State University
  2. 2. SILL Project Objectives 1. Provide an evidence base for linkages between field and farm-scale sustainable intensification (SI) interventions and climate change mitigation 2. Provide recommendations to inform the design of an integrated framework for programming in Zambia  Pilot sites: Eastern and Lusaka Provinces, Zambia
  3. 3. Sustainable Intensification Interventions Agroforestry Conservation Agriculture Forest Conservation Biodiversity / Wildlife Conservation Agricultural-Environmental Linkages
  4. 4. Participatory System Dynamics Modeling  Introductory workshop – generate causal loop diagrams  Review literature and data sets  Build national model in Vensim  Participatory modeling workshop – refine parameters  Build provincial-level model (Eastern and Lusaka)
  5. 5. Major Trends in Zambia  Relatively low population density  Population growth  Projected to increase 10x by 2100  High rates of urbanization  Deforestation (150,000—300,000 ha/year)
  6. 6. Population Fuel Food Grassland Forest Agricultural Decision- making Wildlife populations Model Structure
  7. 7. National Level Deforestation (baseline, 2010-2060) 14% loss18% loss Deciduous and evergreen forest 20 M 17.5 M 15 M 12.5 M 10 M 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) ha Deciduous and evergreen forest : landscape_v5_baseline Miombo woodland 40 M 37.5 M 35 M 32.5 M 30 M 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) ha Miombo woodland : landscape_v5_baseline
  8. 8. National Model Deforestation by Driver 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Time (Year) ha/Year deforestation for agriculture : landscape_v5_baseline area of forest needed for charcoal : landscape_v5_baseline area of forest needed for fuelwood : landscape_v5_baseline forest clearing for commercial timber : landscape_v5_baseline forest clearing for rural home construction : landscape_v5_baseline
  9. 9. Miombo Clearing by Driver 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Time (Year) ha/Year miombo clearing for ag : landscape_v5_baseline area of miombo needed for charcoal : landscape_v5_baseline area of miombo needed for fuelwood : landscape_v5_baseline miombo clearing for commercial timber : landscape_v5_baseline miombo clearing for rural home construction : landscape_v5_baseline National Model
  10. 10. 1.23% loss rate in 2010 0.93% loss rate in 2010 Deciduous and evergreen forest 300,000 225,000 150,000 75,000 0 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) ha Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baseline Miombo woodland 600,000 450,000 300,000 150,000 0 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) Miombo woodland : lusaka_baseline Lusaka Baseline
  11. 11. Deforestation by Driver 30,000 22,500 15,000 7500 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Time (Year) ha/Year deforestation for agriculture : lusaka_baseline area of forest needed for charcoal : lusaka_baseline area of forest needed for fuelwood : lusaka_baseline forest clearing for rural home construction : lusaka_baseline Lusaka Model
  12. 12. Miombo Clearing by Driver 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Time (Year) ha/Year miombo clearing for ag : lusaka_baseline area of miombo needed for charcoal : lusaka_baseline area of miombo needed for fuelwood : lusaka_baseline miombo clearing for rural home construction : lusaka_baseline Lusaka Model
  13. 13. Effect of Drought on Forest Cover A drought affecting 70% of agricultural area occurs every 40 years, and 40% of agricultural area every 8 years. Farmers turn to charcoal production for income in years in which their crops are affected. If farmers engage in CA, they are not affected. Deciduous and evergreen forest 300,000 150,000 0 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) ha Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baseline Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_drought Miombo woodland 600,000 300,000 0 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) Miombo woodland : lusaka_baseline Miombo woodland : lusaka_drought
  14. 14. Effects of Maize Yield Increase on Forest Cover Maize yields increase at 3x their current rate. Deciduous and evergreen forest 300,000 150,000 0 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) ha Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baseline Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_yield Miombo woodland 600,000 300,000 0 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) Miombo woodland : lusaka_baseline Miombo woodland : lusaka_yield
  15. 15. Effect of Full Electrification on Forest Cover Deciduous and evergreen forest 300,000 150,000 0 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) ha Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baseline Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_electrification Miombo woodland 600,000 300,000 0 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) Miombo woodland : lusaka_baseline Miombo woodland : lusaka_electrification
  16. 16. Effect of Fuel Efficient Stoves on Forest Cover Deciduous and evergreen forest 300,000 150,000 0 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) ha Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baseline Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_efficient_stoves Miombo woodland 600,000 300,000 0 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) Miombo woodland : lusaka_baseline Miombo woodland : lusaka_efficient_stoves
  17. 17. Eastern Baseline 0.74% loss rate in 2010 0.54% loss rate in 2010 Deciduous and evergreen forest 2 M 1.75 M 1.5 M 1.25 M 1 M 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) ha Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baseline Miombo woodland 3 M 2.75 M 2.5 M 2.25 M 2 M 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) Miombo woodland : eastern_baseline
  18. 18. Eastern Province Deforestation by Driver 20,000 15,000 10,000 5000 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Time (Year) ha/Year deforestation for agriculture : eastern_baseline area of forest needed for charcoal : eastern_baseline area of forest needed for fuelwood : eastern_baseline forest clearing for rural home construction : eastern_baseline
  19. 19. Eastern Province Miombo Clearing by Driver 30,000 22,450 14,900 7350 -200 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Time (Year) ha/Year miombo clearing for ag : eastern_baseline area of miombo needed for charcoal : eastern_baseline area of miombo needed for fuelwood : eastern_baseline miombo clearing for rural home construction : eastern_baseline
  20. 20. Effect of Drought on Forest Cover A drought affecting 70% of agricultural area occurs every 40 years, and 40% of agricultural area every 8 years. Farmers turn to charcoal production for income in years in which their crops are affected. If farmers engage in CA, they are not affected. Deciduous and evergreen forest 2 M 1.5 M 1 M 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) ha Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baseline Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_drought Miombo woodland 3 M 2.5 M 2 M 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) Miombo woodland : eastern_baseline Miombo woodland : eastern_drought
  21. 21. Effects of Maize Yield increase on Forest Cover Maize yields increase at 3x their current rate. Deciduous and evergreen forest 2 M 1.5 M 1 M 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) ha Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baseline Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_yield Miombo woodland 3 M 2.5 M 2 M 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) Miombo woodland : eastern_baseline Miombo woodland : eastern_yield
  22. 22. Effect of Full Electrification on Forest Cover Deciduous and evergreen forest 2 M 1.5 M 1 M 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) ha Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baseline Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_electrification Miombo woodland 3 M 2.5 M 2 M 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) Miombo woodland : eastern_baseline Miombo woodland : eastern_electrification
  23. 23. Effect of Fuel Efficient Stoves on Forest Cover Deciduous and evergreen forest 2 M 1.5 M 1 M 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) ha Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baseline Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_efficient_stoves Miombo woodland 3 M 2.5 M 2 M 2010 2025 2040 2055 Time (Year) Miombo woodland : eastern_baseline Miombo woodland : eastern_efficient_stoves
  24. 24.  Charcoal production and clearing for agriculture are both important drivers of deforestation  Charcoal dominates in Lusaka  Clearing for agriculture dominates currently in EP  Charcoal dominates both in the future  Agricultural land clearing is driven by rural population growth, not low yields/land abandonment  Charcoal production is driven by urban population growth and energy demand Conclusions

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