Millennium treffit - Innovaatioilla ilmastomuutosta vastaan

J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council 30.3.2016
Innovaatiolla ilmastonmuutosta vastaan

1. Climate Leadership Council
2. The status of the climate change
3. Paris agreement and next phases
4. Innovation needs and opportunities
Contents
J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council

Members:
Market cap > 46% of Helsinki Stock Exchange Gross sales > 90 billion euros

Climate Leadership Council
Vision 2030
Forerunner companies are leading other
companies and organisations with their example
to move towards operations that lead to carbon-
neutrality and sustainable use of natural
resources, both in Finland and abroad. They have
succeeded in creating competitive solutions to
global environmental challenges.
Strategy
The members of CLC are systematically developing
their operations and actions, and thereby
encouraging other organisations, communities
and decision-makers to join. CLC is also collecting
best practices and sharing information.
Board 2015-2016
Pertti Korhonen, Chairman (Outotec Oyj)
Mikko Kosonen, Vice-Chairman (Sitra)
Henrik Ehrnrooth (Caverion Corporation)
Taavi Heikkilä (S-Group)
Antti Herlin (KONE Oyj)
Pekka Lundmark (Fortum Oyj)
Timo Ritakallio (Ilmarinen)
Theme areas
• Carbon price: Developing global carbon pricing
mechanisms
• Investors: Developing climate and carbon risk analysis and
management methods
• Carbon footprint and handprint: Reducing organizations’
carbon foot print
• Transport and mobility: Developing low-carbon strategies
and solutions
• Construction and living: Developing low-carbon strategies
and solutions
• Renewable energy systems: Developing renewable energy,
energy storage and demand-side management solutions
New theme areas can be established based on proposals from
members.
Projects
Each year, CLC selects a few significant projects to develop and
promote. Currently, these include:
• Development of building blocks for a low-carbon roadmap
for companies
• Development of the Helsinki metropolitan area into a Smart
& Clean reference area
• Support for the World Bank’s Carbon Price initiative
• Development and piloting of analysis methods for
climate and carbon risk
• Collaboration with relevant national and international
partners

All Figures © IPCC 2013Without more mitigation, global mean surface temperature
might increase by 3.7° to 4.8°C over the 21st century.

The status of the
climate change
The year 2014 was the warmest
ever recorded by humans. Then
2015 was warmer still. January
2016 broke the record for the
largest monthly temperature
anomaly. February didn’t break
climate change records – it
obliterated them. Regions of the
Arctic were were more than 16C
warmer than normal and the
surface of the Earth north of the
equator was 2C warmer than
pre-industrial temperatures.

Wide systemic
impact
Climate change is the biggest and most systemic risk
Source: World Economic Forum, Global Risks 201627
Highest impact

Zimbabwe has suffered $1.6 billion in damage from its
2016 drought. This is approximately 12% of their GDP.
(Image credit: Ziniyange Auntony/AFP/Getty Images.)
Fiji suffered $470 million in damage from Category 5 Cyclone
Winston's impact in February 2016. ~10% of their GDP.
(Image credit: My Fijian Images and Jah Ray.)
Vietnam: $6.7 billion damage from
its 2016 drought. 4% of Vietnam's GDP
(Image credit: STR/AFP/Getty Images)2016

Source: IPCC J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council

BIOVERSITY PROBLEMS
Source: IPCC
The graph charts the maximum
speed that different species can
move against how fast they must
move, shown on the right.
Many species fall below the line
of the worst-case scenario (the
dotted red line marked “RCP8.5
flat areas”), which means they
have no chance of survival.
Only some species of split-hoofed
mammals, carnivorous mammals,
plant-feeding insects and
freshwater mollusks even stand a
chance.

Carbon Tracker;
<”60$/barrel oil” is
burnable
14
Increasing amount of investors are divesting fossil fuels or actively impacting
fossil companies to have 2 C targets

Valuations illustrate the end game
of fossil energy has begun

“It is not a coincidence that immediately prior to the
civil war in Syria, the country experienced the worst
drought on record. As many as 1.5 million
people migrated from Syria’s farms into
Syria’s cities, and that intensified the political
unrest that was beginning to brew. Now, I’m
not telling you that the crisis in Syria was
caused by climate change. No, obviously, it
wasn’t. It was caused by a brutal dictator who barrel-bombed, starved,
tortured, and gassed his own people,” Kerry said. “But the devastating
drought clearly made a bad situation
a lot worse.”

TEMPERATURE AND LONG-TERM GOAL
- Capping global temperature increases since pre-industrial times to 1,5-2C degrees.
- Means emission reduction between 40 percent to 70 percent by 2050
compared to 2010 levels.
REVISION MECHANISM
- Countries will need to update their current pollution-reduction pledges by 2020
and then do so every five years.
CARBON MARKETS
- A mechanism that would allow credits could be used for internationally.
TRANSPARENCY
- A framework for monitoring, measuring and verifying emissions reductions.
FINANCE
- The deal obliges developed nations to help developing countries pay for reducing
pollution and adapting to the impacts of climate change. The next goal will be to
increase the $100 billion a year that they had previously agreed to provide by 2020.

In INDC or current emission scenarios a >50% chance of keeping
+2C target is lost 25-28 years
World Energy Outlook 2015, Dr. Fatih Birol,
IEA Executive Director. Presentation in Tokyo 21.12.2015.J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council

Due to the long time horizon of the investments, 1,5 or well below 2C
targets should be set ASAP
40 years - 40% reductions (1%/y):
”low hanging” changes first
20 years - 55% reduction (2,7%/y):
more difficult changes
1,5-2,0C targets should be set in
2018 and also drivers for the change
When knowing that the change will be massive, we should postpone it to 2030-2050, when it
may become undoable.

Renewables
Futurist Ray Kurzweil:
solar power has been
doubling every two
years for the past 30
years — as costs have
been dropping. He says
solar energy is only six
doublings — or less
than 14 years — away
from meeting 100% of
today’s energy needs.
Developing countries invested more
than high-income countries: China 36%
of the global total. India increased by 22%
and US by 19%. In Europe the investments
in renewables fell by 21%.

Energy efficiency
World Energy Investment Outlook, Special Report. IEA
2014.

Storages
25

Carbon sinks
Carbon is the backbone of life on Earth.
We are made of carbon, we eat carbon
and our civilizations - our economies, our
homes, our means of transport - are built
on carbon.”
Some of the carbon is in motion. Most of it is locked
away in rocks and underground in deposits of coal, oil
and natural gas. The rest moves through the Earth’s
“four spheres”: the geosphere, hydrosphere,
atmosphere and biosphere, also known as soils,
water, air and living things.
Ocean’s are the biggest sink.
They currently soak up 48% of
the CO2 emissions. Recent
research has found, that the
carbon-storing ability of oceans
is declining, in part because they
are warming and cold water is
better at holding CO2. That
makes our land-based sinks –
those forests, soils, wetlands
and grasslands — even more
important.
Carbon cycle is not in balance.
During the last 200 years of fossil
fuel combustion have put more
carbon into the atmosphere than
the carbon cycle can handle. The
excess of CO2, lingers in the
atmosphere like a blanket around
the Earth, trapping heat and
producing global warming.
The most fundamental objective to keep climate change at adaptable levels is to restore the Earth’s carbon balance.
DOE and several of its national laboratories estimated in 1999 that natural carbon sinks worldwide were removing about 2
gigatons of carbon annually from the atmosphere. The labs concluded that an ambitious international effort could
remove five times that much carbon from the atmosphere, more than 10 gigatons each year. Today, natural carbon sinks
store about 16% of the United States’ annual CO2 emissions from fossil energy combustion.
Healthy soils hold more moisture and
are more productive. Moving animals
from pasture to pasture before they can
over-graze allows grasslands to host the
pollinators critical to 75% of the word’s
food crops. Wetlands retard flooding,
recharge groundwater and provide
another type of wildlife habitat. Coastal
marshes reduce damages from storm
surges. Urban forests and green spaces
reduce flooding, provide an inexpensive
way to control storm water and reduce
the urban heat island effect that causes
illnesses and deaths. Rural forests hold
raindrops and soils in place, preventing
erosion that would otherwise pollute
rivers and streams.

Forests as carbon sinks and as
producers of value adding materials
Biofuels

Annually this means ~$1.100 billion. In 2010–2015 the investment level has been $300–350
billion. Big majority of the funds should come from the private sector.
https://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/graphics/investment-
in-global-energy-supply-by-fossil-fuel-non-fossil-fuel-and-
power-td.html
Investment in global energy supply by fossil fuel, non-fossil
fuel
and power T&D
Upsoar investments: We need $ 16,5 trillion investments into cleantech and
energy efficiency by 2030 to meet 2 C goal

Attracting capital to clean solutions
Use carbon price
Wang Yining, China Association of Machine Industry
March 3, 2016, Globe conference 2016, Vancouver

Electrification of ”everything”
Liu Zhenya, Chairman, State Grid, China. Photos by J Keronen from Business & Climate Summit 21.5.2016, Paris.

CURRENT FINNISH STRENGTHS AND FUTURE GLOBAL MARKETS
ANNUAL GLOBAL MARKET SIZE US$ BILLION
GROWTH BY 2050

Mitigation
1. Renewables
2. Energy efficiency
3. Storage
4. Carbon sinks
5. Upsoar investments
6. Electrification of ”everything”
Protection
Adaptation
Innovation needs and opportunities

33J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council
Thank You!
“We’re the first generation to feel the impact of climate
change and the last generation that can do something
about it.” Gov. Jay Inslee
Photo by Myrskyvaroitus – Stormwarning ry

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