Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.
On  the Importance of
Technology  Foresight
for	
  the	
  future	
  of	
  energy	
  
Prof Sirkka  Heinonen  
Finland  Futu...
Humans in	
  Relation with	
  Technology	
  
through Millennia
3
homo	
  faber
homo	
  ludens
Focus2013
Triangle	
  drama	
  
humans,	
  technology	
  and	
  nature	
  
crucial	
  for	
  all	
  nations,	
  societies,	
  govern...
Modern progressNo	
  single	
  idea	
  has	
  been	
  more	
  important	
  than	
  
the	
  notion	
  of	
  progress	
   — ...
ROBOTIZATION
-­‐ Industrial
-­‐ Service
-­‐ Domestic
-­‐ Pet robots
-­‐ Android
©  athomaz.com
Technology	
  Convergence,	...
tekhne
-­‐ work
-­‐ -­‐ techniques
-­‐ crafts
-­‐ art
The ultimate	
  questionconcerning technology is	
  human/machine in...
Technology	
  is	
  the	
  material link btw
humans and	
  nature
Humans think we can master this
relation
But we have not...
The	
  role of	
  technology has to	
  be re-­‐defined
Appropriate technology – adapted for	
  livability
Biomimicry
Techn...
Futures research =	
  systematic,	
  holistic,	
  multidisciplinary
and	
  critical long-­‐term analysis of	
  futures top...
Possible
Probable FUTURES
Preferred
THE  RAPID  CHANGE  EMPHASIZES  THE  
STRATEGIC  IMPORTANCE  OF  FORESIGHT    
Change is  not only rapid but also continuo...
MI
“The	
  21st
Century	
  will	
  
be	
  the	
  
century	
  of	
  
complexity”
Steven	
  
Hawking	
  	
  
”Futures
Resear...
CLUB  
OF  
ROME
The	
  Club	
  of	
  Rome’s	
  Limits	
  to	
  Growth	
  report	
  	
  (1972)	
  
paved	
  the	
  way	
  ...
One	
  of	
  the	
  most	
  critical	
  systems	
  for	
  
humanity’s	
  survival	
  is	
  embedded	
  in	
  
natural	
  r...
The  future use of  natural resources and  energy is  affected by
socio-­cultural aspects such as  changes in  people's li...
NEO-­‐CARBON	
  ENERGY
Tekes	
  project (2014-­‐2019)
VTT	
  	
  	
  	
  LUT	
  	
  	
  	
  FFRC/UTU	
  
A new	
  renewabl...
§ 2050:  zero  emission  energy  
system  has  to  be  in  place  if  global  
warming  is  limited  to  +2°C.
§ 2030:  ...
a  conceptdeveloped by Prof Pentti  Malaska
(a  word play  on  degrowth)
unlike degrowth,  neo-­growth does not reject gro...
Four	
  Scenarios+
Energy	
  implications
©  Sirkka  Heinonen
RADICAL	
  
STARTUPS
VALUE-­‐DRIVENTECHEMOTHS
GREEN	
  DIY	
...
EMERGING	
  MEANINGS	
  SOCIETY
In	
  the	
  future	
  meanings	
  society,	
  more	
  and	
  more	
  urban	
  
functions	...
©VirpiVaattovaara
Thank  You!  
Professor  Sirkka Heinonen
Finland  Futures  Research  Centre
(FFRC),  University  of  Tur...
REFERENCES
Dator,  Jim  (2012).  Dream Society?  Ubiquitous Society?  No  Society?    Summer  Seminar by the
Finnish Socie...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Millennium heinonen technology foresight 2015-09-23

507 views

Published on

On the Importance of Technology Foresight for the future of energy by Professor Sirkka Heinonen, Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku, at Millennium Meet-up

Published in: Business
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Millennium heinonen technology foresight 2015-09-23

  1. 1. On  the Importance of Technology  Foresight for  the  future  of  energy   Prof Sirkka  Heinonen   Finland  Futures  Research  Centre,  University  of  Turku MILLENNIUM  MEET-­UP    23rd September  2015   Aalto  Design  Factory,  Espoo
  2. 2. Humans in  Relation with  Technology   through Millennia
  3. 3. 3 homo  faber homo  ludens Focus2013
  4. 4. Triangle  drama   humans,  technology  and  nature   crucial  for  all  nations,  societies,  governments,  cities,   businesses,  individuals,  and  humanity  as  a  whole.  
  5. 5. Modern progressNo  single  idea  has  been  more  important  than   the  notion  of  progress   — the  conception  that   our  imperfect  human  race  is  developing  in  a   constantly  improving  direction,  i.e.  progressing. Progress associated with technological progress
  6. 6. ROBOTIZATION -­‐ Industrial -­‐ Service -­‐ Domestic -­‐ Pet robots -­‐ Android ©  athomaz.com Technology  Convergence,   AI,  IoT,  BigData,  Robotisation
  7. 7. tekhne -­‐ work -­‐ -­‐ techniques -­‐ crafts -­‐ art The ultimate  questionconcerning technology is  human/machine interface
  8. 8. Technology  is  the  material link btw humans and  nature Humans think we can master this relation But we have not developed technology sufficiently in  harmony with nature,  following its structures,   systems,  processes…
  9. 9. The  role of  technology has to  be re-­‐defined Appropriate technology – adapted for  livability Biomimicry Technosystem adapted to  eco-­‐system
  10. 10. Futures research =  systematic,  holistic,  multidisciplinary and  critical long-­‐term analysis of  futures topics and   alternative developments Futures Research Futures Research Foresight Foresight =  structured participatory debate about the   future of  complex issues Technology   Foresight
  11. 11. Possible Probable FUTURES Preferred
  12. 12. THE  RAPID  CHANGE  EMPHASIZES  THE   STRATEGIC  IMPORTANCE  OF  FORESIGHT     Change is  not only rapid but also continuous,    increasingly difficult to  foresee in  our complex world We  are  living  the  age  of  globalization,  urbanization,   digitalization,  climate  change  and  resource  scarcity   These  megatrends  are  making  a  significant  impact  on  nations   and  on  people’s  lives   ©  Sirkka  Heinonen
  13. 13. MI “The  21st Century  will   be  the   century  of   complexity” Steven   Hawking     ”Futures Research is   business  of   complexity,   unpredict-­‐ ability,   uncertainty,   surprise” MILLENNIUM  PROJECT
  14. 14. CLUB   OF   ROME The  Club  of  Rome’s  Limits  to  Growth  report    (1972)   paved  the  way  for  a  deeper,  systemic  understanding   of  humankind’s   intervention  in  the  ecosphere.  
  15. 15. One  of  the  most  critical  systems  for   humanity’s  survival  is  embedded  in   natural  resources  and  energy. futures awareness >>>>  energy awareness
  16. 16. The  future use of  natural resources and  energy is  affected by socio-­cultural aspects such as  changes in  people's lifestyles and   value systems -­ equally important to  study as  technological,   economic and  geopolitic factors. • .
  17. 17. NEO-­‐CARBON  ENERGY Tekes  project (2014-­‐2019) VTT        LUT        FFRC/UTU   A new  renewable  energy  based  production  and  storage  system  is  being  developed  by  VTT   Technical  Research  Centre  of  Finland  and  Lappeenranta  University  of  Technology  (LUT).   FFRC  in  charge  of  the  horizon  scanning  of  the  changing  world  and  energy  landscape.   Innovative  foresight  tools  and  processes  are  applied  i.e.    Futures  Cliniques.   China  and   some  countries  from  Africa  and  Latin  America  are  included  as  case  studies.
  18. 18. § 2050:  zero  emission  energy   system  has  to  be  in  place  if  global   warming  is  limited  to  +2°C. § 2030:  only  emission  free   technologies  can  be  taken  in  use. § 2015:  solar  and  wind  become  the   least  cost  options  in  large  part  of   the  World. WHY? / A  COMPLETELY   NEW  RENEWABLE   ENERGY  SYSTEM   WHERE  ENERGY  IS   EMISSION-­FREE,   COST-­EFFECTIVE   AND  INDEPENDENT. NEO-­CARBON  ENERGY  is  one  of  the  Tekes strategic   research  openings  and  the  project  is  carried  out  in   cooperation  with  Technical  Research  Centre  of  Finland   VTT  Ltd,  Lappeenranta  University  of  Technology  LUT   and  University  of  Turku,  Finland  Futures  Research   Centre  FFRC. Neo-­‐Carbon  Energy    Project  studies a) a  100  %  renewable  energy   system  of  solar,  wind  and   storage,  and   b) the  social  societal  implication  of   the  new  energy  system
  19. 19. a  conceptdeveloped by Prof Pentti  Malaska (a  word play  on  degrowth) unlike degrowth,  neo-­growth does not reject growth but emphasises its positive connotations 1)  environmentally sustainable 2)  merges economic growth with  cultural,  social  and  ”spiritual”  growth -­>        an  attempt to  re-­establish a    holistic vision  of  growth. Could  growth  be  defined  anew  – so  that  it  is  environmentally   sustainable,  and  instead  of  conventional  economic  goals  serves  the   overall  well-­being  of  citizens?   Neo-­Growth
  20. 20. Four  Scenarios+ Energy  implications ©  Sirkka  Heinonen RADICAL   STARTUPS VALUE-­‐DRIVENTECHEMOTHS GREEN  DIY  ENGINEERS NEW  CONSCIOUSNESS
  21. 21. EMERGING  MEANINGS  SOCIETY In  the  future  meanings  society,  more  and  more  urban   functions  are  organised to  provide  meaningful   experiences  for  citizens who  become  active  urban   designers  themselves  – and  active  energy   prosumers!
  22. 22. ©VirpiVaattovaara Thank  You!   Professor  Sirkka Heinonen Finland  Futures  Research  Centre (FFRC),  University  of  Turku sirkka.heinonen (at)  utu.fi
  23. 23. REFERENCES Dator,  Jim  (2012).  Dream Society?  Ubiquitous Society?  No  Society?    Summer  Seminar by the Finnish Society for  Futures Studies.  Otava. Heinonen,  Sirkka  (2014).  What is  Futures Reseach and  Scenario Thinking?    Lecture at  University of  Buenos  Aires  (UBA),  Departamento de  Computación 18th  November  2014.  During the Secondment at  FLACSO  and  CIECTI,  Buenos  Aires  (November  2014).  50  ppt  slides.   www.youtube.com/watch?v=cY4NGAfdhJU Heinonen,  Sirkka,  Karjalainen,  Joni  and  Ruotsalainen,  Juho  (2015).  Towards  the  Third  Industrial   Revolution.  Neo-­Carbon  Energy  Futures  Clinique  I.  eBook  6/2015.  Finland  Futures  Research   Centre,  74  p.  http://www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/julkaisut/e-­tutu/Documents/FFRC-­eBook-­6-­2015.pdf Heinonen,  Sirkka  &  Ruotsalainen,  Juho  (2014).  Toward Ubiquitous Learning.   www.ael.fi/sites/default/files/files/ael_futuriikki_eng_10-­2014_final_net.pdf Malaska,  Pentti (2010).  A  More  Innovative  Direction  Has  Been  Ignored.    In:  Understanding   Neogrowth -­ An  Invitation  to  Sustainable  Productivity.  TeliaSonera  Finland  Plc.  Helsinki,  p.  200-­ 210.www.sonera.fi/media/13069ab55806de22e8955bc2a3f1afeab17b28bd/Understanding_Neogr owth.pdf

×