Millennium breyer energy futurebasedonwindsolar 2015-09-23

The energy future based in
wind and solar energy?!
Christian Breyer
Professor for Solar Economy, Lappeenranta University of Technology
Millennium Breakfast Meeting
Aalto Design Factory
Espoo, September 23, 2015

2 Energy Future based in wind and solar energy
Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi
What is the Vision?

What is the key problem?
“Climate Change presents a unique challenge for economics: it is the
greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen.”
N. Stern, Economics of Climate Change, 2006

IPCC mitigation in energy sectors
Key insights:
• GHG emissions in the power sector to be zero by 2050
• ALL new investments MUST fulfill this requirement
source:
IPCC, 2014. 5th AR – Synthesis Report

New installed RE capacities not fully on track
Key insights:
• 50% of new capacities are RE
• Gas plants can be used as bridge
• Coal and nuclear(~30%) fully unsustainable

6 Fortum Strategy Meeting
New installed capacities on track (EU28, Nordic)

We have a dramatic subsidy problem
Key insights:
• global energy subsidies are almost fully allocated for
fossil (and nuclear) fuels
• fossil fuel subsidies are as large as global
expenditures for the health sector
• RE would grow much faster if harmful fossil-nuclear
subsidies would be phased-out

Capacity expectations till 2030 and 2040
PV ER Adv ER 2DS hi-Ren NPS 450
2030 2839 GW 3725 GW 1799 GW 1721 GW 1927 GW 647 GW 856 GW
2040 4988 GW 6678 GW 3687 GW 3199 GW 3277 GW 930 GW 1396 GW
Wind
2030 2510 GW 3064 GW 1282 GW 1600 GW 982 GW 1288 GW
2040 4316 GW 5892 GW 2033 GW 2150 GW 1321 GW 1873 GW
source: Greenpeace, BNEF, IEA
Key insights:
• leading reports had been close to consensus for 2030 and 2040, but Greenpeace is now pushing
• IEA WEO is laggng behind due to assuming wrong growth pattern

WEO key failure: linear vs logistic growth
all new renewables (ex hydro) solar PV
Overview:
• World Energy Outlook (WEO) is regularily
wrong with RE, since they are based on the
wrong growth pattern (linear vs logistic growth)
• 3 phases of RE: negligible, not relevant,
relevant but not enough
• 4th phase pending: RE is the solution
• 4th phase means tremendous growth ahead
• my number for 2030: about 18000 TWh RE gen
source: Metayer M., Breyer Ch., Fell H.-J., 2015. The projections for the future and quality
in the past of the World Energy Outlook for solar PV and other Renewable Energy
technologies, 31st EU PVSEC, Hamburg, September 14-18
download:
www.researchgate.net

10 Fortum Strategy Meeting
What is the pathway?
source: Brunila A., 2012. Fortum – Power and heat company in
the Nordic countries, Russia, Poland and the Baltics
Solar Economy
Solar based production with
high overall system efficiency
Geothermal
Hydro
Wind
Sun
Ocean
Traditional
energy production
Exhaustible fuels that
burden the environment
Coal Gas
Oil
Advanced
energy production
Energy efficient and/or
low-emission production
Nuclear
today
Nuclear
tomorrow
CHP
CCS
Bio
Fortum’s compass -
Energy is an enabler
Storage
Active
ConsumerDemand
Response
LowEfficiencyHighEfficiency
High Emissions Emission free
Interconnectors
Smart
applications

What are the real low carbon investments?
source: Schneider M. and Froggatt A., 2014. The World Nuclear Industry Status Report

Cost of ’cleantech’ solutions
source: Agora Energiewende, 2014. Comparing the Cost of Low-Carbon Technologies: What is the Cheapest option;
Grubler A., 2010. The costs of the French nuclear scale-up: A case of negative learning by doing, Energy Policy, 38, 5174
Key insights:
PV-Wind-Gas is the least cost option
nuclear and coal-CCS is too expensive
nuclear and coal-CCS are high risk technologies
high value added for PV-Wind due to higher
capacities needed

Germany – 100% RE (power and heat sector)
source: Henning H.-M. and Palzer A., 2012. 100 % Renewables for Electricity and Heat – a
Holistic Model for a Future German Energy System , 7th IRES, Berlin
PV share ~25%

Finland - 100% RE (power, heat, mobility sectors)
PV share ~16% (of annual
electricity generation)
source: Child M., et al., 2015. The role of solar PV for 100% renewable
energy supply in Finland, 31st EUPVSEC

Energy Future based in wind and solar energy
15
Total annual costs: Sustainable Finland
Key insights:
• Stranded investments in nuclear/ coal power stations not accounted (higher WACC?*)
• Test scenarios have high level of investment
• Reference scenarios have high level of fuel and CO₂ costs (risk of high CO2 price**)
* WACC 7% ► 15%
BAU: + 3 b€
New Nuclear: + 2 b€
** CO2 price 75 ► 150 €/t
BAU: + 1.9 b€
rather likely according to Luderer G. et al.,
Environ.Res.Lett., 8, 034033, 2013
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2012 2020 2050
Basic
100% RE
2050
Basic
Low
Nuclear
2050
Basic
Medium
Nuclear
2050
Basic
New
Nuclear
2050 Low
Biomass
100% RE
2050 Low
Biomass
Low
Nuclear
2050 Low
Biomass
Medium
Nuclear
2050 Low
Biomass
New
Nuclear
2050 BAU
Totalannualcosts(M€/a)
Variable costs - other
Variable costs - CO₂
Variable costs - fuel
Fixed operation costs
Annualized investment costs
source: Child M. and Breyer Ch., 2015. Vision and Initial Feasibility
Analysis of a Recarbonised Finnish Energy System, 17th Int. Conf.
of the Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku, June 11-12

North-East Asian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply
Dmitrii Bogdanov ► Dmitrii.Bogdanov@lut.fi
16
Methodology
Full system
Renewable energy sources
• PV ground-mounted
(optimally tilted)
• PV rooftop
• Wind onshore
• Hydro run-of-river
• Hydro dam
• Geothermal
• CSP
• Waste
• Biogas
• Biomass
Electricity transmission
• node-internal AC transmission
• interconnected by HVDC lines
Storage options
• Batteries
• Pumped hydro storages
• Thermal energy storage, Power-to-Heat
• Gas storage based on Power-to-Gas
• Water electrolysis
• Methanation
• CO2 from air
• Gas storage
Energy Demand
• Electricity
• Water Desalination
• Industrial Gas
download:

17
South America – 100% RE (power and gas sector)
PV share ~40%
source: Barbosa L.S.N.S., et al., 2015. Complementarity of hydro, wind and solar power
as a base for a 100% RE energy supply: South America as an example, Rio 15 –
World Climate & Energy Event, Rio de Janeiro, September 4
download:

18
North-East Asia – 100% RE (power and gas sector)
PV share ~42%
source: Bogdanov D. and Breyer Ch., 2015. North-East Asian Super Grid for 100%
Renewable Energy power supply: Distributed small-scale and centralized large-
scale solar PV as a major energy source, 31st EUPVSEC

19
Israel – 100% RE (power sector)
PV share ~90%
source: Bogdanov D. and Breyer Ch., 2015. The Role of Solar Energy towards 100% Renewable
Power Supply for Israel: Integrating Solar PV, Wind Energy, CSP and Storages, 19th
Sede Boqer Symposium on Solar Electricity Production, February 23-25
download:

Resources and Energy Demand
source: Perez R. and Perez M., 2009. A fundamental look on energy reserves for the
planet. The IEA SHC Solar Update, Volume 50
Key insights:
• no lack of energy
resouces
• limited conventional
resources
• solar and wind resources
need to be the major
pillars of a sustainable
energy supply
Remark:
• conventional resources
might be lower than
depicted by Perez

source:
ETOGAS, 2013
Learning from Nature
photons-to-biomass biomass-to-fuel
Key insights:
• processes well established
• efficiency of photons-to-biomass is quite low
• efficiency of photons-to-biomass-to fuel is even lower

A short history of the solar cell efficiency
source: NREL, 2014. Solar Efficiency Diagram
• broad variety of PV
technologies
• continuous increase of
efficiencies
• theoretical maximum at 86%

Energieeffizienz - PKW
0-100 km/h in 4,7 s; 261 kW;
88.000 €, 280 km/h max; 460 km
Reichweite; 13,8 l/100km
Porsche - Verbrennungsmotor
0-100 km/h in 4,0 s; 185 kW,
63.000 €; 210 km/h max; 400 km
Reichweite; 12 kWh/100km
energetisch Faktor 5PV-Breakeven in 4 Jahren
www.porsche.de
Tesla - Elektromotor
www.teslamotors.com
Kosten: 440 MJ; 16,50 €/100kmKosten: 90 MJ; 3,00 €/100km

CO2
Diagram of Syngas Conversion Processes
Source: P.L. Spath and D.C. Dayton, 2003. Preliminary Screening - Technical and Economic Assessment of Synthesis Gas to Fuels and
Chemicals with Emphasis on the Potential for Biomass-Derived Syngas. NREL/TP-510-34929
Naphta

But do we know the long-term PV demand?
The results of some recent studies might help …

Focus on PV for the year 2050
• all reports acknowledge significant relevance of PV (≥ 5 TWp)
• BUT, the variation in results (input) is high, despite of progressive/ RE-based scenarios
• closer view to the key numbers might provide a valuable guideline
conservative in heat and mobility
sector

Maximum (visionary) solar PV Market long-term
Key question:
• What is the long-term maximum solar PV demand globally?
Assumptions:
• global population: 10 billion people
• energy consumption level: today’s EU28 average should guarantee a good standard of living
• energy generation: primary energy demand supplied by power technologies, mainly wind energy and solar
energy, due to major constraints, like resources, costs, emissions and efficiency
• energy demand: sectors power, heat and mobility use different forms of energy, based on electricity
• efficiency of solar PV: doubling of system efficiency from ave 15% today to 30% (impact on area demand)
• scenarios: breakthrough progress of batteries: Yes (PV share 40% of total) / No (PV share 25%)

Alternative long-term approach beyond 2050
key assumptions
• based on IEA-WEO 2014
• long-term global average TPED on EU level of today
• world population stabilized at 10 bn people
• share of solar PV between 25%-40%, depending on
battery breakthrough and CSP competitiveness
• gain in PV system efficiency to 30% (area impact)
• shift of non-power TPED to power (heat pumps, EV, RO
desalination, etc.: power-to-heat/gas/fuel/water)
• no PE efficiency gain (gain in some sectors, but limiting
efficiencies in power-to-fuel)
key results
• 58 - 93 TWp PV capacity in the long-term beyond 2050
• no limitation in area demand (or other resources)
• 8 - 9 doublings of capacity for learning curve
• ~250 €/kWp target PV capex beyond 2050 (have in mind:
major capex reduction until 2030)
• 12 €/MWh target LCOE for global ave yield
• PV may become THE least cost energy source
source: Gerlach A., Breyer Ch., et al., 2015. Forecast of Long-Term PV Installations –
Discussion of Scenarios ranging from IEA to the Solar Economy, 31st EU PVSEC

Global – 100% RE (all sectors) – Role of PV
source: Gerlach A., Breyer Ch., et al., 2015. Forecast of Long-Term PV Installations –
Discussion of Scenarios ranging from IEA to the Solar Economy, 31st EU PVSEC
Key insights:
• exponential growth of PV needed for some further decades
• 2030 results inline with international institutions, BUT not 2040 onwards
• highest absolute growth around the mid of this century
• 40% solar PV share may be not the upper limit (North-East Asia, South-East Asia, Israel results)
• techno-economic least cost solutions include large shares of both, distributed AND centralised PV

30
New Business Cases: RE-PtG-LNG
source: Fasihi M., et al., 2015. Economics of global LNG trading based
on hybrid PV-Wind power plants, 31st EUPVSEC

31
New Business Cases: RE-based desalination
source: Caldera U., et al., 2015. Local cost of seawater RO desalination based on solar PV and wind
energy: Economics, global demand and the impact of full load hours, 31st EUPVSEC
Overview:
• clean water for all (and
nearly everywhere) is no
wishful thinking
• water crisis is rather a
managment failure than a
techno-economic issue
download:

32
Summary
• 100% Renewable Energy system is reachable!
• zero fossil CO2 emissions by 2050 are not yet reflected in energy markets
• dramatic high fossil fuel subsidies block RE market growth
• international institutions see strong growth, except IEA WEO lacking behind
• 100% RE scenarios understanding improves fast
• the shift to power in the gas, desalination, heat and mobility sector will be driven by
higher supply of least cost solar PV and wind sites
• 40% solar PV share for global energy supply may be realistic (with upside potential)
• 58 – 93 TWp installed PV capacities in the long-term may be feasible
• new business cases arise, such as RE-PtG-LNG or RE-desalination

Thanks for your attention …
… and to the team!

Millennium breyer energy futurebasedonwindsolar 2015-09-23

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