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Millennium breyer energy futurebasedonwindsolar 2015-09-23

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The Energy Future Based in Wind and Solar Energy
Presentation by the Professor of Solare Economy Christian Breyer, Lappeenranta University of Technolgoy, at the Millennium Meet-up

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Millennium breyer energy futurebasedonwindsolar 2015-09-23

  1. 1. The energy future based in wind and solar energy?! Christian Breyer Professor for Solar Economy, Lappeenranta University of Technology Millennium Breakfast Meeting Aalto Design Factory Espoo, September 23, 2015
  2. 2. 2 Energy Future based in wind and solar energy Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi What is the Vision?
  3. 3. 3 Energy Future based in wind and solar energy Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi What is the key problem? “Climate Change presents a unique challenge for economics: it is the greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen.” N. Stern, Economics of Climate Change, 2006
  4. 4. 4 Energy Future based in wind and solar energy Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi IPCC mitigation in energy sectors Key insights: • GHG emissions in the power sector to be zero by 2050 • ALL new investments MUST fulfill this requirement source: IPCC, 2014. 5th AR – Synthesis Report
  5. 5. 5 Energy Future based in wind and solar energy Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi New installed RE capacities not fully on track Key insights: • 50% of new capacities are RE • Gas plants can be used as bridge • Coal and nuclear(~30%) fully unsustainable
  6. 6. 6 Fortum Strategy Meeting Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi New installed capacities on track (EU28, Nordic)
  7. 7. 7 Energy Future based in wind and solar energy Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi We have a dramatic subsidy problem Key insights: • global energy subsidies are almost fully allocated for fossil (and nuclear) fuels • fossil fuel subsidies are as large as global expenditures for the health sector • RE would grow much faster if harmful fossil-nuclear subsidies would be phased-out
  8. 8. 8 Energy Future based in wind and solar energy Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi Capacity expectations till 2030 and 2040 PV ER Adv ER 2DS hi-Ren NPS 450 2030 2839 GW 3725 GW 1799 GW 1721 GW 1927 GW 647 GW 856 GW 2040 4988 GW 6678 GW 3687 GW 3199 GW 3277 GW 930 GW 1396 GW Wind 2030 2510 GW 3064 GW 1282 GW 1600 GW 982 GW 1288 GW 2040 4316 GW 5892 GW 2033 GW 2150 GW 1321 GW 1873 GW source: Greenpeace, BNEF, IEA Key insights: • leading reports had been close to consensus for 2030 and 2040, but Greenpeace is now pushing • IEA WEO is laggng behind due to assuming wrong growth pattern
  9. 9. 9 Energy Future based in wind and solar energy Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi WEO key failure: linear vs logistic growth all new renewables (ex hydro) solar PV Overview: • World Energy Outlook (WEO) is regularily wrong with RE, since they are based on the wrong growth pattern (linear vs logistic growth) • 3 phases of RE: negligible, not relevant, relevant but not enough • 4th phase pending: RE is the solution • 4th phase means tremendous growth ahead • my number for 2030: about 18000 TWh RE gen source: Metayer M., Breyer Ch., Fell H.-J., 2015. The projections for the future and quality in the past of the World Energy Outlook for solar PV and other Renewable Energy technologies, 31st EU PVSEC, Hamburg, September 14-18 download: www.researchgate.net
  10. 10. 10 Fortum Strategy Meeting Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi What is the pathway? source: Brunila A., 2012. Fortum – Power and heat company in the Nordic countries, Russia, Poland and the Baltics Solar Economy Solar based production with high overall system efficiency Geothermal Hydro Wind Sun Ocean Traditional energy production Exhaustible fuels that burden the environment Coal Gas Oil Advanced energy production Energy efficient and/or low-emission production Nuclear today Nuclear tomorrow CHP CCS Bio Fortum’s compass - Energy is an enabler Storage Active ConsumerDemand Response LowEfficiencyHighEfficiency High Emissions Emission free Interconnectors Smart applications
  11. 11. 11 Energy Future based in wind and solar energy Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi What are the real low carbon investments? source: Schneider M. and Froggatt A., 2014. The World Nuclear Industry Status Report
  12. 12. 12 Energy Future based in wind and solar energy Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi Cost of ’cleantech’ solutions source: Agora Energiewende, 2014. Comparing the Cost of Low-Carbon Technologies: What is the Cheapest option; Grubler A., 2010. The costs of the French nuclear scale-up: A case of negative learning by doing, Energy Policy, 38, 5174 Key insights: PV-Wind-Gas is the least cost option nuclear and coal-CCS is too expensive nuclear and coal-CCS are high risk technologies high value added for PV-Wind due to higher capacities needed
  13. 13. 13 Energy Future based in wind and solar energy Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi Germany – 100% RE (power and heat sector) source: Henning H.-M. and Palzer A., 2012. 100 % Renewables for Electricity and Heat – a Holistic Model for a Future German Energy System , 7th IRES, Berlin PV share ~25%
  14. 14. 14 Energy Future based in wind and solar energy Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi Finland - 100% RE (power, heat, mobility sectors) PV share ~16% (of annual electricity generation) source: Child M., et al., 2015. The role of solar PV for 100% renewable energy supply in Finland, 31st EUPVSEC
  15. 15. Energy Future based in wind and solar energy Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi 15 Total annual costs: Sustainable Finland Key insights: • Stranded investments in nuclear/ coal power stations not accounted (higher WACC?*) • Test scenarios have high level of investment • Reference scenarios have high level of fuel and CO₂ costs (risk of high CO2 price**) * WACC 7% ► 15% BAU: + 3 b€ New Nuclear: + 2 b€ ** CO2 price 75 ► 150 €/t BAU: + 1.9 b€ rather likely according to Luderer G. et al., Environ.Res.Lett., 8, 034033, 2013 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 2012 2020 2050 Basic 100% RE 2050 Basic Low Nuclear 2050 Basic Medium Nuclear 2050 Basic New Nuclear 2050 Low Biomass 100% RE 2050 Low Biomass Low Nuclear 2050 Low Biomass Medium Nuclear 2050 Low Biomass New Nuclear 2050 BAU Totalannualcosts(M€/a) Variable costs - other Variable costs - CO₂ Variable costs - fuel Fixed operation costs Annualized investment costs source: Child M. and Breyer Ch., 2015. Vision and Initial Feasibility Analysis of a Recarbonised Finnish Energy System, 17th Int. Conf. of the Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku, June 11-12
  16. 16. North-East Asian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Dmitrii Bogdanov ► Dmitrii.Bogdanov@lut.fi 16 Methodology Full system Renewable energy sources • PV ground-mounted (optimally tilted) • PV rooftop • Wind onshore • Hydro run-of-river • Hydro dam • Geothermal • CSP • Waste • Biogas • Biomass Electricity transmission • node-internal AC transmission • interconnected by HVDC lines Storage options • Batteries • Pumped hydro storages • Thermal energy storage, Power-to-Heat • Gas storage based on Power-to-Gas • Water electrolysis • Methanation • CO2 from air • Gas storage Energy Demand • Electricity • Water Desalination • Industrial Gas download: www.researchgate.net
  17. 17. Energy Future based in wind and solar energy Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi 17 South America – 100% RE (power and gas sector) PV share ~40% source: Barbosa L.S.N.S., et al., 2015. Complementarity of hydro, wind and solar power as a base for a 100% RE energy supply: South America as an example, Rio 15 – World Climate & Energy Event, Rio de Janeiro, September 4 download: www.researchgate.net
  18. 18. Energy Future based in wind and solar energy Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi 18 North-East Asia – 100% RE (power and gas sector) PV share ~42% source: Bogdanov D. and Breyer Ch., 2015. North-East Asian Super Grid for 100% Renewable Energy power supply: Distributed small-scale and centralized large- scale solar PV as a major energy source, 31st EUPVSEC
  19. 19. Energy Future based in wind and solar energy Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi 19 Israel – 100% RE (power sector) PV share ~90% source: Bogdanov D. and Breyer Ch., 2015. The Role of Solar Energy towards 100% Renewable Power Supply for Israel: Integrating Solar PV, Wind Energy, CSP and Storages, 19th Sede Boqer Symposium on Solar Electricity Production, February 23-25 download: www.researchgate.net
  20. 20. 20 Energy Future based in wind and solar energy Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi Resources and Energy Demand source: Perez R. and Perez M., 2009. A fundamental look on energy reserves for the planet. The IEA SHC Solar Update, Volume 50 Key insights: • no lack of energy resouces • limited conventional resources • solar and wind resources need to be the major pillars of a sustainable energy supply Remark: • conventional resources might be lower than depicted by Perez
  21. 21. 21 Energy Future based in wind and solar energy Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi source: ETOGAS, 2013 Learning from Nature photons-to-biomass biomass-to-fuel Key insights: • processes well established • efficiency of photons-to-biomass is quite low • efficiency of photons-to-biomass-to fuel is even lower
  22. 22. 22 Energy Future based in wind and solar energy Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi A short history of the solar cell efficiency source: NREL, 2014. Solar Efficiency Diagram • broad variety of PV technologies • continuous increase of efficiencies • theoretical maximum at 86%
  23. 23. Energieeffizienz - PKW 0-100 km/h in 4,7 s; 261 kW; 88.000 €, 280 km/h max; 460 km Reichweite; 13,8 l/100km Porsche - Verbrennungsmotor 0-100 km/h in 4,0 s; 185 kW, 63.000 €; 210 km/h max; 400 km Reichweite; 12 kWh/100km energetisch Faktor 5PV-Breakeven in 4 Jahren www.porsche.de Tesla - Elektromotor www.teslamotors.com Kosten: 440 MJ; 16,50 €/100kmKosten: 90 MJ; 3,00 €/100km
  24. 24. CO2 Diagram of Syngas Conversion Processes Source: P.L. Spath and D.C. Dayton, 2003. Preliminary Screening - Technical and Economic Assessment of Synthesis Gas to Fuels and Chemicals with Emphasis on the Potential for Biomass-Derived Syngas. NREL/TP-510-34929 Naphta
  25. 25. 25 Energy Future based in wind and solar energy Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi But do we know the long-term PV demand? The results of some recent studies might help …
  26. 26. 26 Energy Future based in wind and solar energy Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi Focus on PV for the year 2050 • all reports acknowledge significant relevance of PV (≥ 5 TWp) • BUT, the variation in results (input) is high, despite of progressive/ RE-based scenarios • closer view to the key numbers might provide a valuable guideline conservative in heat and mobility sector
  27. 27. 27 Energy Future based in wind and solar energy Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi Maximum (visionary) solar PV Market long-term Key question: • What is the long-term maximum solar PV demand globally? Assumptions: • global population: 10 billion people • energy consumption level: today’s EU28 average should guarantee a good standard of living • energy generation: primary energy demand supplied by power technologies, mainly wind energy and solar energy, due to major constraints, like resources, costs, emissions and efficiency • energy demand: sectors power, heat and mobility use different forms of energy, based on electricity • efficiency of solar PV: doubling of system efficiency from ave 15% today to 30% (impact on area demand) • scenarios: breakthrough progress of batteries: Yes (PV share 40% of total) / No (PV share 25%)
  28. 28. 28 Energy Future based in wind and solar energy Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi Alternative long-term approach beyond 2050 key assumptions • based on IEA-WEO 2014 • long-term global average TPED on EU level of today • world population stabilized at 10 bn people • share of solar PV between 25%-40%, depending on battery breakthrough and CSP competitiveness • gain in PV system efficiency to 30% (area impact) • shift of non-power TPED to power (heat pumps, EV, RO desalination, etc.: power-to-heat/gas/fuel/water) • no PE efficiency gain (gain in some sectors, but limiting efficiencies in power-to-fuel) key results • 58 - 93 TWp PV capacity in the long-term beyond 2050 • no limitation in area demand (or other resources) • 8 - 9 doublings of capacity for learning curve • ~250 €/kWp target PV capex beyond 2050 (have in mind: major capex reduction until 2030) • 12 €/MWh target LCOE for global ave yield • PV may become THE least cost energy source source: Gerlach A., Breyer Ch., et al., 2015. Forecast of Long-Term PV Installations – Discussion of Scenarios ranging from IEA to the Solar Economy, 31st EU PVSEC
  29. 29. 29 Energy Future based in wind and solar energy Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi Global – 100% RE (all sectors) – Role of PV source: Gerlach A., Breyer Ch., et al., 2015. Forecast of Long-Term PV Installations – Discussion of Scenarios ranging from IEA to the Solar Economy, 31st EU PVSEC Key insights: • exponential growth of PV needed for some further decades • 2030 results inline with international institutions, BUT not 2040 onwards • highest absolute growth around the mid of this century • 40% solar PV share may be not the upper limit (North-East Asia, South-East Asia, Israel results) • techno-economic least cost solutions include large shares of both, distributed AND centralised PV
  30. 30. Energy Future based in wind and solar energy Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi 30 New Business Cases: RE-PtG-LNG source: Fasihi M., et al., 2015. Economics of global LNG trading based on hybrid PV-Wind power plants, 31st EUPVSEC
  31. 31. Energy Future based in wind and solar energy Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi 31 New Business Cases: RE-based desalination source: Caldera U., et al., 2015. Local cost of seawater RO desalination based on solar PV and wind energy: Economics, global demand and the impact of full load hours, 31st EUPVSEC Overview: • clean water for all (and nearly everywhere) is no wishful thinking • water crisis is rather a managment failure than a techno-economic issue download: www.researchgate.net
  32. 32. Energy Future based in wind and solar energy Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi 32 Summary • 100% Renewable Energy system is reachable! • zero fossil CO2 emissions by 2050 are not yet reflected in energy markets • dramatic high fossil fuel subsidies block RE market growth • international institutions see strong growth, except IEA WEO lacking behind • 100% RE scenarios understanding improves fast • the shift to power in the gas, desalination, heat and mobility sector will be driven by higher supply of least cost solar PV and wind sites • 40% solar PV share for global energy supply may be realistic (with upside potential) • 58 – 93 TWp installed PV capacities in the long-term may be feasible • new business cases arise, such as RE-PtG-LNG or RE-desalination
  33. 33. Thanks for your attention … … and to the team!

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