2014 March GrayReports - Student Demand Trends

GRAYREPORTS
Demand for Educational Programs
www.GrayAssociates.com
Results through March 2014

617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 2
GRAY
For more information please contact Bob Atkins.
Email: bob.atkins@grayassociates.com
Contents
1. About Gray and GrayReports
2. National Overview of Inquiry Volumes
3. Trends by City and Program
4. GrayReports Market Opportunity Mapping
5. Question and Answer

GRAY
Who Is Gray?
Gray offers cutting-edge data and analysis on post-secondary education markets.
GrayReports
Completions
Employment
GrayData
Placement Rates
Industry Inqs & Apps
Demographics
BLS/ONET
Business Strategy
Location Selection
Program Portfolio Strategy
Marketing Strategy and Pricing
Gray Research
Job Postings
IPEDS
US Census WANTED Analytics
Public SourcesPublic Sources Gray Resources

GRAY
What is GrayReports?
Over 31 million qualified inquiries
January 2012 to the present
~1.0 million new inquiries per month
149 programs with over 10,000 inquiries
257 cities with over 10,000 inquiries

GRAY
GrayReports: Validity
GrayReports is highly consistent with Google trends and other sources on demand for education.
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Google1GrayReports
Inquiries
GrayData
Google
Google Search Trends vs. GrayReports Inquiries
Medical Assisting
(January 2012 to October 2013)
1. Google Trends: “Interest over Time”
Correlation: 92.7%

GRAY
Why GrayReports?
Managers make decisions with the data they have.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Last Year This Year
Inquiries Up 25%
(000s)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Last Year This Year
Inquiries Down 16%
(000s)
-16%
+25%
Assessment of
Marketing
Marketing
Imperative
Great Job!
Keep it up. Fix it, Fast!
Yikes!

GRAY
Without information on the market, internal results can be very misleading.
0
2
4
6
8
10
Last Year This Year
GrayReports: Industry Inquiries
Up 44%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Last Year This Year
GrayReports: Industry Inquiries
Down 37%
-16%
+25%
+44% -37%
72% 59% 59% 78%
Company
Industry
Market Share
Why GrayReports?
Assessment of
Marketing
Marketing
Imperative
Yikes!
Keep it up!Fix it, Fast!
Tough Market
Good Work
Company
Industry

GRAY
Education Industry Inquiry Growth
2014 inquiries got off to a good start during January and February, but March results were weaker.
 March 2014 inquiries declined 6.5% year-over-year.
 Through the first quarter of 2014, inquiries are 4.25% lower than 2013.
2012
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiries
(Millions)
Education Industry Inquiries
All Programs and Award Levels
2012
2013
2014

GRAY
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Inquiries
Inquiries for On-Line Programs
2012
2013
2014
On-Line Inquiries
Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeOn-line programs are losing share of inquiries.
 In the first quarter of 2014, on-line inquiries declined 21%.
 March was worse: inquiries for on-line programs fell 26.5% year-over-year.

GRAY
Inquiries for On-Ground Programs
Inquiries for on-ground programs have increased each month this year.
 The first quarter of 2014 is up 5.3% over the same period in 2013.
 In March, inquiries for on-ground programs rose 4.9% year-over-year.
2012
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
Inquiries
Inquiries for On-Ground Programs
2012
2013
2014

GRAY
Average Price-Per-Inquiry
Since January 2012, price-per-inquiry has risen from $40.42 to $44.52, roughly 27 cents per month.
 In 2013, price-per-inquiry averaged $42.71.
 In March, price-per-inquiry rose to $44.52—an increase of 50 cents over the prior month.
$37
$38
$39
$40
$41
$42
$43
$44
$45
Average
PPI
Average Inquiry Prices
2014 2012 2013
$43.80 $44.02
$44.52

GRAY
2.7%
2.3%
2.3%
2.4%
2.5%
2.6%
2.5%
3.0%
2.6%
2.5%
2.1%
2.3%
2.8%
2.5%
2.9%
2.7%
2.8%
3.3%
3.1%
3.0%
2.7%
2.8%
2.6%
2.5%
2.2%
1.6%
1.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
ApplicationRate
Education Industry Application Rates
2012 2013 2014
Inquiry to Application: Conversion Rates
Immature
Months
Application rates rose in 2013. This year, application rates appear to be weaker.
 January 2014 is well behind 2013 levels and almost “mature.1”
 Applications from February inquiries will have to make a big jump next month to hit 2013 levels.
1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry).
Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.

GRAY
Average Cost-Per-Application
Higher price-per-inquiry and lower application rates are driving up costs per application in 2014.
 In 2013, rising application rates offset price increases, reducing the average cost-per-application.
 As Q1 matures, the 2014 price-per-inquiry will drop—but is likely to remain well above 2013 levels.
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
2012 $1,517 $1,757 $1,723 $1,703 $1,656 $1,570 $1,620 $1,388 $1,594 $1,688 $1,991 $1,853
2013 $1,542 $1,665 $1,484 $1,566 $1,566 $1,286 $1,378 $1,444 $1,599 $1,559 $1,611 $1,731
2014 $1,968 $2,727 $3,030
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
Cost-Per-Application
Not Fully Mature

GRAY
Fastest-Growing Cities in March
All of the fastest-growing cities1 met or exceeded last year’s inquiry volumes.
 San Diego, CA was the fastest-growing market for the second straight month, up 74% year-over-year.
 All five cities grew over 40%.
-24%
-7%
1%
-26% -10%
74% 46% 46% 41% 41%
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
90%
San Diego, CA Ogden-
Clearfield, UT
Shreveport-
Bossier City, LA
Boise City, ID Salt Lake City, UT
Industry Inquiries
Top 5 Highest Growth Markets – March 2014
2013 YoY % Change 2014 YoY % Change
1. Includes only cities with a minimum of 27,000 inquiries since January 2012. Data includes a 15-mile radius from the center of the CBSA.

GRAY
Largest Cities: March Growth
The five largest cities were flat or down in March.
 Los Angeles and Philadelphia were flat year-over-year.
 Chicago declined moderately at 5%, compared to a 6% year-over-year decline in February 2014.
 New York and Atlanta posted double-digit declines.
-13%
-1%
-14%
10%
13%
0%
0%
-5%
-13%
-18%-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Los Angeles CA Philadelphia, PA Chicago, IL New York, NY Atlanta, GA
Industry Inquiries
5 Largest Markets – March 2014
1. Includes only programs with over 27,000 inquiries since January 2012 for all award levels nationally.

GRAY
Fastest-Growing Programs in March
The five fastest-growing programs1 all grew over 100% year-over-year in March.
 Medical and technical programs accounted for four of the five fastest-growing programs.
 Liberal Arts is the only program that made the list for both February and March.
-3%
-39%
-6%
33%
-32%
478%
362%
187%
154%
135%
-50%
50%
150%
250%
350%
450%
550%
Respiratory Therapy
Technician/Assistant.
Health Information/Med.
Records Admin.
Liberal Arts & Sciences Vehicle Maintenance and
Repair
Network and System
Admin.
Industry Inquiries
Fastest Growing Programs – March 2014
1. Includes only programs with more than 27,000 inquiries since January 2012.

GRAY
Largest Programs, March Growth
The five largest programs were flat to down—in some cases by almost 20%.
-3%
11%
7%
-12%
8%
0%
-5%
-7%
-18% -19%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Medical/Clinical Assistant. Business Administration and
Management, General.
Medical Insurance Specialist/
Medical Biller.
Criminal Justice/ Police
Science.
Accounting.
Five Largest Programs
February Inquiries: Year-over-Year Change

GRAY
GrayReports Inquiries
1. The illustrative campus is
just southwest of the city
center.
2. North and west of the
campus there is high
inquiry volume.
3. East of the campus,
GrayReports shows less
demand.
4. The campus is relatively
far away from the heavy
demand east of the city
center.
Using GrayReports data, we can see inquiry volumes by census tract and neighborhood.
Source: GrayReports 2014 inquiries for corresponding Client programs, award level 1-4.
This chart be actual GR Inquiries
1
2
3
4
Data are for
Illustration
Only

GRAY
Over-Under: Gray Approach
Industry Inquiries by
Tract
Client Inquiries by Tract
Average Client Share of Industry
Inquiries
Distance Adjustment
“Expected Share” by Tract
“Over-Under” Share
(Actual – Expected Share)
“Over-Under” Inquiries
Over-Under Share x Industry Inquiries

GRAY
 In this example, share of inquiries drops by about 2 percentage points per mile
for locations within 8 miles of a campus.
Share of inquiries declines with distance from campus.
y = -0.02x + 0.2404
R² = 0.90
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Distance From Campus (Miles)
Client Share vs. Distance
Example: 0-8 Miles
Client Inquiry Share vs. Distance
30%

GRAY
Over-Under Analysis
There is an opportunity to increase lead flow in the neighborhood west of campus.
1. The school beats its
distance-adjusted expected
share in the areas to the
east.
2. However, the campus is
underperforming its
expected share of inquiries
in the areas just west of
campus.
 Demographic and cluster
analysis indicates that these
neighborhoods have a large,
underserved ethnic
population. 2
1
Data are for
Illustration
Only

GRAY
Takeaways
On-ground programs are gaining share.
- On-line inquiry volume is falling sharply
+ But, inquiries for on-ground are rising
- Overall, application rates declined
- Cost-per-application is up sharply
+ Results vary widely by market and program: Positioning your school in
the right locations and programs can make a big difference.
+ You can identify specific neighborhoods where improvements in
marketing can make a difference.

GRAY
Takeaways
You need GrayReports for your campuses and programs.
1. To determine if you are winning or losing the battle for share
- As a company
- By campus
- By program
- By neighborhood
2. To evaluate the performance of Marketing Agencies
- Are they rising and falling with the tide?
- Or, are they helping you take share in a tough market?
3. To make better decisions:
- How much you need to spend to sustain or take share
- Where to spend and win

GRAY
Questions and Contacts
Please feel free to contact me:
Bob Atkins
CEO
Gray Associates, Inc.
Bob.Atkins@GrayAssociates.com
617-401-7662
For the presentation or a recording of the
session, please visit:
GrayAssociates.com

2014 March GrayReports - Student Demand Trends

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