The document discusses the spatial context of climate risk. It provides an overview of key concepts related to climate change adaptation and disaster risk management including earth system science frameworks, climate impacts, risk elements, exposure and vulnerability mapping, complexity and dynamics of systems, and limitations around data, nonlinearity and uncertainty. Specific topics covered include temperature rise patterns, increases in hot days and decreases in cold days, conceptual linkages between adaptation and disaster risk management, the spatial nature of exposure and risk, vulnerability at different scales, dynamics of vulnerability and risk over time, limitations around distinguishing slow onset from rapid onset events, and the need for spatial tools and critical thinking to address climate and disaster resilience challenges.

1. The Spatial Context of Climate Risk
Strengthening Climate Resilience Initiative
National Consultation
18-19 May 2010
SEAMMEO InnoTech
Antonia Yulo Loyzaga
May Celine Vicente, Ph D
Gemma T. Narisma, Ph D

2. Some Starting Points
• Earth System Science Framework
• Physics and Chemistry
• Biological and Physical Impacts - Slow Onset vs. Rapid
• Elements of Risk - multi-temporal spatial visualization of probability
• Urgent Need to Map Exposure and Vulnerability
• Complexity - Nature, Scale, Structure, Dynamics
• Dynamics – Responding to External, Internal stimuli or both
• Limitations – Data, Non-linearity, Complexity, Uncertainty, Slow Onset vs.
Rapid
• Spatial Tools for Climate and Disaster Resilience – looking beyond
adaptation
• Critical thinking is badly needed :
“Climate Change Mitigation is primarily technological, while climate
change adaptation is primarily sociological.” Vinod Chandra Menon

3. Earth System Science Framework

4. Rise in mean temperatures
(1960-1998) in nearly all stations
outside urban areas
More hot days, warm nights -
Fewer cold days & nights
Manton et al. 2000

5. Conceptual Linkages of Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster
Risk Management (CCA-DRM)
Climate Change Adaptation: Disaster Risk Management
Reduce vulnerability to: Reduce vulnerability to:
Gradual changes in Extreme weather events Climate- and Geophysical Ecological
climatic parameters with increased weather-related hazards hazards
frequency and severity hazards
Sea level Rising mean Changes in Direct connection
rise temperature precipitation
patterns
Potential
connections
Exploit connections
using co-benefit
strategies
Top-down / National Bottom-up /
gov’t policies. Community-based
(SOURCE: Castillo, Charlotte Kendra G, 2007)

6. Likelihood of harm, loss,
RISK
disaster
Risk Lexicon
Physical impact of
HAZARD
disturbance
Elements affected by
EXPOSURE
hazard
Susceptibility & capacity to
VULNERABILITY prepare, absorb, & recover
from hazard
RISK ≅ HAZARD x EXPOSURE x VULNERABILITY (UNDP and UNDRO, 1979)

7. Risk is Spatial

8. Exposure is Spatial
Japan also has about 1.4 times as many people exposed to tropical cyclones than the Philippines. However, if affected by a
cyclone of the same magnitude, mortality in the Philippines would be 17 times higher than that in Japan. - UNISDR
(http://www.preventionweb.net/files/10441_Figure12.jpg)

9. 1. Isabela
2. Cagayan
3. Camarines Sur
4. Nueva Ecija
5. Pangasinan
6. Bulacan
Above 500M 7. Iloilo
8. Pampanga
9. Oriental Mindoro
10. Albay
11. Siquijor
12. Laguna
13. Occidental Mindoro
14. Surigao Del Sur
15. Capiz
16. Quezon
17. Batangas
18. Cavite
19. Catanduanes
20. Bukidnon
Department of Agriculture Data (1992-2006)

10. Vulnerability and Scale

11. Vulnerability, Scale and Complexity

12. Dynamics of Vulnerability and the Nature of Risk

13. Limitations – Uncertainty, Data, Complexity, Nonlinearity

14. Theoretical Framework for Risk Analysis
HAZARDS EXPOSURE VULNERABILITY
Climate/ Weather-Related
Population Density Human Development Index
Typhoon
Rainfall Health and Nutrition
Temperature/ Drought Poverty Indices
Education
El Niño/ La Niña
Sea Level Rise/ Storm Surge Women and Children
Land Use/ Cover
Geophysical Elderly and Disabled
Earthquake River Basins, Water Resources
EQ-Induced Landslide Regions and Critical Watershed Hierarchy of Urban Centers
Rainfall-Induced Landslide
Volcanic Eruption Types of Natural Habitat Socio-Economic Pressures
Tsunami
Flooding Integrated Marine and Regional Gross Value-Added
Terrestrial Priorities by Sector
Human Induced-Ecological
Deforestation Critical Infrastructure Transport
Mining
Climate Change Agri-Industrial Centers and
Pollution Growth Network Corridors
Priority Tourism Development
and Investment Areas
Mines and Protected Areas
RISK SCORE ≅ HAZARD x EXPOSURE x VULNERABILITY (UNDP)

19. 2020 2050

21. Limitations - Slow Onset vs. Rapid Onset

22. Source: Concepcion, Unpublished Concepcion, Unpublished

23. Existing Ongoing Proposed
Lasse Holopainen, 2005

24. MINDANAO
Existing Ongoing Proposed Lasse Holopainen, 2005

26. Rain Accumulated in Southern and Central Luzon (21-28 Sep 2009)
330.3 mm
http://www.nscb.gov.ph/headlines/StatsSpea
k/2009/030909_rav_climatechange.asp
http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/manila_rainfall_perspective_21-28sep09.jpg
• Accumulated rainfall over a week measured by TRMM was over 500 mm
in Metro Manila. This value is higher than the monthly normal.

27. Flood Map of Eastern Metro-Manila and Rizal

28. Batasan Area
Port Area
Marikina River
Pasig River
Manggahan Floodway

29. Estimated Population of Informal Settlements
as of 2000 (UPMIII)
Location Estimated No. of Slum Dwellers Description
Manggahan 1,153,726 along Manggahan Floodway
Marikina River 299,286 includes slums in Barangka and Industrial Vallet in Marikina plus Bagong Silangan in Quezon City
Batasan 2,891,987 includes slums in Batasan Hil s, Constitution Hil s, Commonwealth, Holy Spirit, Payatas and Bagong Silangan in Quezo
Port Area 309,355 includes Barangay 19 and 20 of Tondo and Barangay 275 of San Nicolas and Barangay 649 of Port Area
Pasig River 77,636 includes Barangay 900, 902, 903, 904 and 905 of Sta. Ana, Manila
Total 4,731,989

30. Spatial Tools for Climate and Disaster Resilience

31. Joint Geospatial Database for Cross-Scale Risk Reduction:
NAMRIA,Albay Province,ChristianAid UK, Oxfam GB,U.P.NIGS.MO
The Base Map: SPOT 5 XS 2.5 m, June 2006, Albay
© CNES, France and Courtesy of the NAMRIA
123°40'0"E
1 3° '0"N
20'0"N
20
1 3°
1 3° '0"N
10'0"N
10
1 3°
0'0"N
0'0"N
13°
13°
123°40'0"E

32. LOCAL RISK ≅ (HAZARD X EXPOSURE X VULNERABILITY)
Barangay Level
Lahar and Flood Population Density Poor Population
HAZARD X EXPOSURE X VULNERABILITY
RISK

34. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
HANDBOOK
BACLAYON, BOHOL, PHILIPPINES
(Third Draft)

35. Sustainable Development Handbook for Baclayon, Bohol
Climate
Factors + -
1. Temperature (Historical/ Projected)
The degree of hotness or coldness of the environment. (Source:
http://www.answers.com/topic/temperature - 244k - Cached)
Warmer months are from April to October with temperature from 27C or
higher. November temperature starts to go down with February coolest.
Temperature ranges from 25.5 C (February) to 28 C in May.
Projections indicate a progressive rise in temperature in the next 50 years.
Some impacts of increased temperature are:
• Greater demand for water
• More algal blooms
• Increased exposure to mosquito and water-borne
illnesses
Has possible temperature change been considered?
Have the impacts of potential increasing temperatures been
considered?
Would project activities/ plans withstand increasing temperatures?
35 35

36. Sustainable Development Handbook for Baclayon, Bohol
Marine
Factors + -
1. Marine Geology/ Bathymetry
Marine Geology
The branch of geology dealing with the rocks, sediments, and processes of the
floors and margins of the oceans.
(Source: http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/Marine%20Geology)
Bathymetry
The measurement of the depths of oceans, seas, or other large bodies of
water.
The data derived from such measurement, esp. as compiled in a topographic
map.
(Source : http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/Bathymetry)
Bathymetric surveys of Pamilacan shows steep sea floor gradients
around the island, which are probably fault-controlled.
(Source: 2002-2011 CLUP)
Has the stability of the shoreline been considered?
Has the possible penetration of large waves – attributed to storm surge
and tsunami - been considered?
Has the possibility of strong ground shaking been considered? Underwater Slope in Pamilacan Island
MO Project Team (Riovie D. Ramos), 2009
36

37. Sustainable Development Handbook for Baclayon, Bohol
Socio-Economic Profiles
Factors + -
1. Demography
The science of vital and social statistics, as of the births, deaths, diseases,
marriages, etc., of populations.
(Source: http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/Demography)
The population of Baclayon has grown since 1995 by 3.21% annually. This
is higher than the provincial average. The highest population densities are
found in barangays closest to the Provincial Capital and Town Center.
Majority of Baclayon’s population is rural. Increased population growth in
rural areas puts stress on limited agricultural land and natural resources.
(Source: 2002-2011 CLUP)
Children Playing in Pamilacan Island
MO Project Team (Emmi B. Capili), 2009
Baclayon’s population is largely young (50% under 25 years old), limiting
their contribution to local income and demanding greater government
subsidies for basic education and health. HOUSEHOLD POPULATION BY AGE GROUP
(Source: 2002-2011 CLUP) 80 and Over
75-79
70-74
Are human settlements safely located in relation to existing/ potential 65-69
environmental hazards? 60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
Have local stakeholders and communities been consulted in identifying
Age Group
40-44
35-39
existing/ potential environmental hazards? 30-34
25-29
20-24
Have local populations been assessed with regards to their level of 15-19
10-14
awareness to existing/ potential environmental hazards? 5-9
1-4
Under 1
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Number of Households
37

38. More critical thinking is needed.
This should be spatial, multi-scale, multi-temporal and
interdisciplinary.

39. What do we do with what we know?
(Typhoon Frank in Iloilo, CAUK 2008)

40. Maraming Salamat Po