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Int. Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management, 15-16.12.2011, Lucka Kajfez Bogataj


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Climate Variability and Change, Importance for IWRM planning process
International Roundtable on Protection and Sustainable Use of Trans-boundary Waters in South East Europe, 15-16 December 2011, Zagreb, Croatia

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Int. Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management, 15-16.12.2011, Lucka Kajfez Bogataj

  1. 1. Climate Variability and Changeimportance for IWRM planning process Lučka Kajfež Bogataj University of Ljubljana, Slovenia former IPCC WG2 vicechair
  2. 2. Fossil Fuel & Cement CO2 Emissions Growth rate 2010 5.9% yr Growth rate 2000-2010 3.1% per year Growth rate 2009 -1.3% per year Growth rate 1990-1999 1% per year Uncertainty (6-10%) - +Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011; Marland et al. 2009
  3. 3. Key Questions Increased demand 1. Can 9 billion people be 50% by 2030 (IEA) fed equitably, healthily Energy and sustainably? 2. Can we cope with the Climate future demands on water? Change Food Water 3. Can we provide enough Increased demand Increased demand energy to supply the 50% by 2030 30% by 2030 growing population (FAO) (IFPRI) coming out of poverty? 4. Can we mitigate and adapt to climate change? Biodiversity 5. Can we do all this in the context of redressing the decline in biodiversity and The Perfect Storm? preserving ecosystems?(Beddington, 2009)
  4. 4. Jun-Jul-Aug and Dec-Jan-Feb temperature anomalies (°C)Jun-Jul-Aug Dec-Jan-Feb Hansen, 2011
  5. 5. Summer temperature in EuropeBarriopedro et al., 2011
  6. 6. EEA
  7. 7. 3 classes of water problems in SEE • too little water • too much water • water pollution Can (and will) be exacerbated by climate change
  8. 8. Main drought events in Europe, 2000–2009
  9. 9. Recurrence of flood events in Europe (EEA, 2011)
  10. 10. Europe: Geographic Changes +10 -1 +50% -50% 2080- 2080-2099 Minus 1980-1999 (A1B) 1980-
  11. 11. Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters toAdvance Climate Change Adaptation (IPCC , 2011)
  12. 12. Decrease in return period implies more frequent extreme temperature eventsThe time between “20-year” (unusually) warm days will decrease
  13. 13. IPCC SREX, 2011 : on drougts Summary for Policymakers• There is medium confidence that droughts will intensify in the 21st century in some seasons and areas, due to reduced precipitation and/or increased evapotranspiration.• This applies to regions including southern Europe and the Mediterranean region, central Europe, central North America, Central America and Mexico, NE Brazil, and S Africa.
  14. 14. River flow –projected trend Relative change in seasonal and annual runoff between 1961-1990 compared to 2071-2100 (SRES A2). Dankers and Feyen, 2008.
  15. 15. Projected river flow droughts riverRelative change in mean annual and summer minimum 7-day river flowbetween scenario (2071-2100, SRES A2) and control period (1961-1990)Feyen and Dankers, 2008.
  16. 16. River floods –projected trendRelative change in 100-year return level (Gumbel fit) of river dischargebetween scenario (2071-2100, SRES A2) and control period (1961-1990) Dankers and Feyen, 2008.
  17. 17. Proportion of severewater stress EU riverbasins likely toincrease from19% today to 35%by 2070.Areas affected bydroughts willincrease.
  18. 18. Risks in key sectorsWater: decresing wateravailability, changes in Agriculture:precipitation, melting of glaciers, Decreasing agriculturalextreme weather events, production, economicincreasing competition of decline, moredemand unempoyment, food Climate change shortages, increasing Urban space competition of demand Energy Infrastru Food Water cture Governance transport Land use Infrastructure, energy supply and transport: environmental change due to climate change increases Urbanisation: Increasing disaster running costs (damages, risks, health risks, growing flooding etc) or reduces population dynamics, growing energy production (hydro) slums
  19. 19. The water conflict scenario • The scarcity of water is replacing oil as a flashpoint for conflict between nations • The danger of international competition for adequate water resources will grow inevitably. • • Need to prevent intense competition for this essential substance
  20. 20. How to adapt?• Regarding increasing water stress, the most common and planned strategies remain supply-side measures such as impounding rivers to form in-stream reservoirs (also wastewater reuse and desalination).• Demand-side strategies are also needed, such as household, industrial and agricultural water conservation, reducing leaky municipal and irrigation water systems, and water pricing.• The main structural measures to protect against floods are likely to remain reservoirs and dikes in highland and lowland areas respectively. Other planned adaptation options include expanded floodplain areas, emergency flood reservoirs, preserved areas for flood water, and flood warning systems.
  21. 21. Adaptation and WATER Risk Management Approaches for a Changing Climate
  22. 22. Conclusions• Water resources management in the CEE region faces formidable challenges.• The hydrological regimes of the major rivers in the region are complex and vulnerable to climate change.• The impact of a warming climate on key hydrological processes is not sufficiently understood• At this point in time, the impacts are not sufficiently quantified in SEE region and adaptation and mitigation strategies not in place.