Sustainable agriculture and climate forecasting inades- regional consultation
MANAGING RISKS AND ENHANCING
COMMUNITY ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE
VARIABILITY AND CHANGE USING
SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES
AND CLIMATE FORECASTING
Presentation to the SCR Regional Workshop, AACC 23 rd – 25th June 2009
By Alphonce Katunzi
Tanzania Country Context
CC, Poverty and Livelihoods
CCA and DRR in Tanzania
IFTz and CCA, DRR & Development
The Project – background & justification
Project Objectives and Actions
Approach, Methodology and Project Locations
Findings, achievements and key lessons
Issues & Project contribution to CSA to DRM
Size = 948,350 km² (881,000km² -Mainland, 2,000 km² - Zanzibar).
Country’s population = 40 million (80% rural)
Poverty: 36% below Basic Needs poverty line.
Major economic sectors: Agriculture, Mining, Services
mainstay of the economy (35% of GNP, 80% of exports & 90% of
potential varies from semi-arid to fertile and highly productive land
under rain-fed agriculture.
45-75% of area = Semi-Arid’ (SAT), with 200-800 mm rainfall
Agriculture production in SAT mainly rain-fed = inadequate, high
variability; prolonged dry spells, even during the season.
Main occupation in SAT: agriculture, pastoralism and agro-pastoralism.
CC LINKS TO POVERTY AND LIVELIHOODS
Livelihoods: CC undermines livelihoods, through changes in
temperature and rainfall. E.g. yields from rain-fed agriculture in
Tanzania to reduce by 50% by 2020
Disasters: CC increases frequency and/or intensity of natural hazards -
floods and droughts.
Rural communities: hardest hit by CC impacts –why?
Most dependent on climate-sensitive natural resources &
ecosystems – agriculture and livestock (67% rural people)
Live in rural areas with most exposure to climate hazards.
Lack capacity to cope with CC effects due to limited human, financial
and institutional capacity.
Food security: increased food shortages and famines.
Adaptation more effective than mitigation at least in the short-term.
Impacts of CC - risk to poverty reduction efforts (URT, 2007) &
attainment of Development Vision 2025 and MDGs.
CC development, equity, urgent issue – threatens progress on
development goals, affects many sectors.
Climatic elements (particularly rainfall variability & uncertainty) most
limiting factors – affects rural livelihoods and agricultural productivity.
Drought - most critical climatic constraint to development in SAT.
Low soil moisture retention capacity, highly variable rainfall, seasonal
availability of water, limited growing season, declining soil fertility due
to erosion. and low adaptive capacity of farmers.
Impacts of drought:
Makes farming more difficult especially in marginal lands
Leads to poor or no yields, food insecurity and reduced hh income
Food shortages, increased food prices, seasonal food crises & famines.
Can result into loss of livestock and migration in search of pastures.
FOCUS ON CCA AND DRR
DRR & CCA share same goal – reducing vulnerability to weather and climate related
Adaptation = finding and implementing ways of adjusting to CCs.
Approaches to CCA at different levels - from community, national & intern. levels.
― UNFCCC. National Communications, Tanzania NAPA, The Hyogo Framework for
― CBA and CSOs
For dryland SAT communities - adaption options must address the deteriorating
environmental conditions that undermine their livelihoods.
Evidence: SAT communities have various autonomous adaptation and risk
management options drawing upon their rich and extensive knowledge base to cope
with adverse environmental conditions and shocks, examples;
Drought resistant crops,
SWC & water harvesting innovations,
Irrigation, cereal & seed banking,
Diversifying income sources by engaging in other farm or non-farm enterprises
Use of seasonal climate forecasting to reduce production risks.
CCA efforts exploit fully such knowledge – esp. in Arid and SA regions.
DRM IN TANZANIA – NATIONAL CONTEXT
Major hazards - natural and man-made, both
climate- and non-climate related
Climate-related : Drought, floods, landslides,
epidemics, pest infestations, landslides
Non-climate related: earth quake, fire, civil
Widespread drought of 2005-06 & 2008-
Floods of Kilosa of 2008-09
Drought and famine of Loliondo and 67
other districts of 2008-09
Floods in Northern Tz of 2006-07;
RVF outbreak 2007;
Impacts: livelihoods affected, infrastructure
destroyed, food insecurity, hunger and
famine, health problems, loss of lives.
DRM IN TANZANIA – NATIONAL CONTEXT CONT’D
Aim: disaster preparedness to reduce vulnerability and improve
Disaster preparedness measures:
Legislation on DRM – national disaster management policy (2004) &
enabling legislation, disaster management dept – PMO; Regional,
district, village level disaster managemet plans & committees, inter-
sector co-ordination and mainstreaming,
National policies on environment; population growth, land
One UN Joint Programme: strengthening national disaster
preparedness and response capacity.
Crop & food security monitoring by MAFS, FEWS…, National SGR…
IFTZ AND CCA, DRR & DEVELOPMENT
IFTz work - fostering local development by
building local capacity to tackle poverty
using mainly local resources.
Focus: agriculture and rural development,
livelihoods; natural resource management;
Past - focus on environmental issues
(Projects: PFI, SFI, IK, LUM & SWC,
Present – CC from environmental to
developmental issue; impacts on
agriculture and livelihoods, worsens
DRR – central to supporting communities
adapt to CC; Anticipatory risk management
options – common as community’s
unconscious response to CC&V.
CC affects the poor the most - CCA reduces
their vulnerability to CC effects.
DRR reduces poor people’s vulnerability to
Project idea: Based on CA call for Innovative
Projects on CCA – Focus on improved
seasonal climate forecasting
Background: Farmers & pastoralists in SAT
long relied on traditional weather forecasting
methods & other adaptation methods to warn
against impending drought, food scarcity and
other climatic stresses and design
appropriate mitigation and/or coping and
Project Focus: Demonstrating how the local
knowledge, skills, and creativity of the people
could be harnessed for coping with the
effects of degrading environmental, CC&V.
Between 2008/09 to 2009/10 - supported
community-based efforts for adapting to CC,
via action-research linking scientific and local
knowledge on seasonal climate forecasting.
Enable farmers make reliable forecasts and
increase their resilience to CC impacts.
THE PROJECT – CONT’D
Increasing demands on adaptation to CC, local economic and social
Traditional strategies need to be improved and strengthened.
Need for timely information on emerging CC to plan appropriate responses.
Little documented evidence on use of climate forecast by smallholder farmers in
Tanzania, despite its importance for;
Drought risk management in agriculture
Increasing the resilience & adaptive capacity of vulnerable communities.
Decision making on choice of crop/cropping systems, selection of crop
varieties and resource allocation.
Improving the adaptive capacity of rural livelihoods and make them feel in
control of their lives
Little has been focused on community level adaptation strategies and how these
can be improved using scientific techniques.
Support CBA to CC and its impacts by enhancing use of potential adaptation
Draw lessons from the action-research study in order to increase the resilience of
community and up-scale the experiences to other semi-arid areas.
To enhance the resilience of vulnerable communities in semi-arid
central Tanzania to cope with and adapt to CC&V and variability using
reliable information on climate forecast and prediction.
Collect, analyse and assess met. information, data & trends on climate forecast.
Inventory and participatory assessment of local knowledge on climate and
Participatory CRA with communities of likely CC impacts - focus on agric. sector.
Plan and implement community-based risk management strategies for
enhancing adaptation to the impacts of CC&V.
Strengthen capacity of communities and supporting institutions to prepare and
respond effectively to future CC risks.
Promote engagement of communities in decision-making processes on climate-
related adaptation strategies > to influence policy change.
PROJECT PARTNERS, LOCATIONS & DURATION
1. INADES Formation Tanzania
2. Hombolo Research Institute -
3. Tanzania Meteorological
Agency – Dodoma
4. District Government & Dept. Of
5. Village Governments
6. Village Communities
4 villages (2 villages in each
2 districts in 2 regions of SAT
Chamwino - Dodoma region.
Manyoni - Singida region
2008-09 & 2009-10 (2
PROJECT APPROACH & METHODOLOGY
Action-research process to involve
communities in the learning
process - assessing the potential
role of seasonal climate forecasts
for increasing the adaptive
capacity of rural communities.
Participatory tools and methods -
for understanding the climate,
climate risk assessment and
forecasting (CRA tools).
Sustainable livelihood approach -
used as a basis for exploring the
theoretical interaction of
livelihoods and climate.
KEY FINDINGS - COMMUNITY PERCEPTIONS OF CC&V
Climate variability has a large influence on the livelihoods
of communities in SAT
Climate elements with largest influence are wind, rainfall
Wind - Increase of wind speed and strength – most
frequently mentioned change
Precipitation - Rainfall pattern changed, becoming
more unreliable compared to the past, its onset and
cessation being very unpredictable, with increased
frequency of bad years compared to good years (every
Temperature - suggestion that temperatures were
getting warmer, and two villages suggested the cold
period was getting colder (cold period in June-July
getting much colder).
Total monthly rainfall (mm) ..
300 rainfall =
seasonal Total 2004/05
200 rainfall = 2001/02 seasonal
498mm seasonal Total rainfall =
rainfall = 469mm
Month and Year
COMMUNITY PERCEPTIONS – CONT’D
Crop and livestock pest (including quelea quelea birds) & disease incidence
increasing, flooding and water lodging was increasing, again linking these changes
In some cases, the change is attributed to neglect of traditions and customs, e.g.
abandoning traditional rituals in today’s communities due to modernization.
Farmers think the situation is likely to get worse in the future, e.g. in a five year
period, it is likely to have 3 bad and only two good years.
The local perceptions of CC&V tend to link mainly to local weather patterns - no
linkage is made to global climate changes.
Village names, linked to climate and weather events and/or patterns:
Ikowa village – name means ‘bumper harvest’ in local ‘Gogo’ language .
Past - common for most households to harvest record yields of sorghum and
Nowadays - most families get zero yields due to drought and lack of rains.
Perceived strengths & weaknesses to adapt
Human capital/ ability to farm – energy, strength, family labour, endurance
Crop diversity – wide range of crops and varieties
Ability to keep livestock – which can act as a buffer, eg exchange for food
Crop resilience – having drought resistant seed and rain-water harvesting innovations.
Ability to store food – food stocks and long term storage knowledge
Natural capital – need to rent land
Financial capital – no access to credit, lack of capital to buy and sell crops 16
Human capital – poor understanding of weather, potential to contract AIDS
PERCEPTIONS - CONT’D
Recurring pattern - Frequency of bad years
is increasing every two or three years now
and were more frequent than good years.
Vulnerablility varies by gender, age,
lifecycle stage and socio-economic status
of the individual.
Future: to get worse - in a five year period
three years would be bad and two would
Perception linked mainly to local patterns,
no linkage to global changes.
FINDINGS – ADAPTATION AND RISK REDUCTION OPTIONS
Risk reduction and coping strategies adopted by
farmers include establishing demonstration plots for
testing various adaptation options for improving soil
moisture retention capacity, innovations in rain-water
harvesting and use of drought resistant crop
Tillage practices (Deep tillage using spring
jembe, Magoye ripper, and oxen-ridger, compared
to local practice of ‘slash and burn’)
Drought-resistant varieties: sorghum, sunflower,
sweet potatoes, and maize.
Use of organic manure
Tree nurseries and tree planting.
Installing and using simple rain gauges to
monitor rainfall – alerts farmers on rainfall
amount sufficient soil moisture for planting.
FINDINGS - LOCAL FORECASTING KNOWLEDGE
Indicator % Score Rank
A lot of available local knowledge still in use for
weather & climate forecasting. TREES
Most of the local indicators considered to be Mwaliganza 88% 3
potential predictors of weather and future climate Mibuyu 80% 5
(score 80-100). Miondo 75% 7
Farmers believe that the indicators give correct Msele 88% 3
forecast of the rainfall. Maembe 88% 3
Some local predictions supported by scientific Mkungugu 85% 4
(met.) data e.g. rainfall variability.& trends ANIMALS
Scientific & met. information inaccessible at local Ngakakuona 90% 1
level Chimuhanga 88% 3
Mchwa (Ants) 65% 9
Mguulo 89% 2
Yobwa 78% 6
Local Name 75% 7
WIND 70% 8
Use of drought resistant varieties and deep tillage
practices gave significant yield increases compared to
Information on local knowledge & indicators of weather
forecasting collected, validated and shared.
Sharing of scientific information on weather - made
communities more conscious of weather
trend/patterns and effects on production activities.
Farmers record trends in rainfall amounts and link the
data with local forecasts. Rain gauge measurements
have been improved and are more reliable.
Making information accessible – to community
members. Before, such information was not accessible
within the villages due to poor communication and
linkage with meteorological office.
Improved record keeping - Use of record cards to
monitor and record patterns and progress of crop
growth stage/condition – Used to forecast yield, and
relate this to effects on crop growth and weather.
PROJECT ACHIEVEMENTS – CONT’D
Understanding by TMA on the gap that exists
between farmers’ needs and the weather forecasts
that they provide
Recognition of the role of IK in weather forecasting
Potential of integrating IK & scientific forecasting
Awareness raising to stakeholders (farmers,
extension workers, district officials, TMA, NGOs)
Facilitated formation of groups to undertake
weather forecasting based on IK
Community-based fora where IK forecasting is
integrated with scientific forecasting from TMA
Risk assessment & management and developing
strategies for adaptation & DRR
Improved seasonal climate forecasting, use of drought-resistant crops and moisture-
retention agronomic package are risk management options that play a key role in helping
decision making on farming operations and enhancing adaptation to CC&V.
Farmers attach particular importance on the value of local knowledge for prediction, and
the added value of scientific knowledge on weather forecasting.
Local predictors supported by scientific data, e.g. on rainfall pattern - the seasonal
migration pattern of birds locally known as ‘Yobwa/Koronga’ has been proved by
meteorological scientists to be perfectly correlated with the ITCZ (Inter Tropical
Convergence zone) which is the rainfall making mechanism in the East African Zone.
Need to conserve traditional forests and other sources of local predictors in order to
sustain the local weather forecasting knowledge. However, more research is needed to
establish the potential local predictors of climate/weather forecast
Accessibility & timely availability of meteorological information could assist farmers to
plan their agricultural activities. Particularly important for forecasting the onset of rains.
Need to introduce simple meteorological stations in villages to monitor various climate
parameters (temperature, evaporation and rainfall) and its trend.
Other risk management options – e,g economic activities important to help them bridge
the critical periods of poor production
ISSUES & CONTRIBUTION TO CSA TO DRM
Translating & communicating information & data
on adaptation options - to increase awareness,
understanding & responsiveness of communities &
Influence development of effective policies by
governments for supporting/guiding CCA & DRM
Need in-depth shared understanding of local
people’s perceptions and adaptation strategies -
action research/learning process and appropriate
Integrating IK in school curricula – potential .
Enhancing interaction btn communities and other
actors (Govt, scientists, NGOs, media..)
Contribution to CSA to DRM:
Enhances community adaptive capacity to
cope with or manage CC risks.
Contributes to addressing poverty by
reducing vulnerability & increasing livelihoods