Disaster management report digital strategy

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Disaster management report digital strategy

  1. 1. DIGITAL PRODUCTIVITY AND SERVICES FLAGSHIPwww.csiro.auREPORTAll Hazards: DigitalTechnology & Servicesfor Disaster Management
  2. 2. Victoria’s Black Saturday bushfires in 2009 are a recent example of natural disasters causing loss of life and property in high-risk areas. Introduction Natural disasters have increased in severity and frequency in recent years. In 2010 alone, 385 natural disasters killed over 297,000 people worldwide, impacted 217 million human lives and cost the global economy US$123.9 billion.1 Similarly, Australia is encountering an increasing Priority information number of natural disasters including floods, To save lives and make our communities safer, bushfires and cyclones. Other natural and human stronger, more resilient, we need to sustain and induced hazards are increasing in frequency strengthen our disaster management efforts and and severity including storm surges, droughts, better prepare for emergency situations. Therefore, heatwaves, and earthquakes. They cost more than it is critical that emergency managers have better, $1.4 billion damage each year to homes, business, more effective information to use. Clear knowledge and the nation’s infrastructure, along with serious of specific hazards and emerging disasters related disruption to communities. to climate change, as well as methods, tools, Because we live on coastlines and in the bush, and standards and systems that will deliver the greatest we’ve built our houses and necessary infrastructure impact are needed. in these high-risk regions, such damaging natural Understanding the overarching social, economic disasters put many people’s lives and properties and environmental costs, and, for industry; the at stake. Victoria’s 2009 Black Saturday Bushfires return on investment, risk-based resource allocation and Queensland’s 2011 Brisbane Floods are recent and performance management outcomes of disaster devastating examples. management is necessary - as well as knowing how In addition to the recognised effects of climate to effectively harness community and volunteer change in Australia, such as increasing frequency networks to counteract and overcome disasters. and severity of storms, intense rainfall, extended drought and heatwaves, our expanding population is residing in areas progressively more prone to natural disasters and unpredictable weather events.2 Disaster Management
  3. 3. Consequently, emergency and disaster management Our mission is to deliver great science andin Australia is undergoing reform. The Council innovative solutions for industry, society and theof Australian Governments’ National Strategy for environment. Therefore, our scientific approachDisaster Resilience aims to enhance Australia’s to understanding risk and disaster events can becommunity and organisational capacity to better used to improve many aspects of your disaster andwithstand and recover from emergencies.2 Disaster emergency management process.resilience will strengthen when government,business, communities and individuals collectivelyadopt risk-based planning and mitigation strategies. We use our science to make aIn short, how we prevent, prepare, respond to, and profound and positive impactrecover from disasters that impact our social, built,economic and natural environments is important. for the future of Australia and humanity.Real answers to big questionsCSIRO, Australia’s national scientific agency, iswell positioned to support governments, planning Taking an all hazards approach to disastergroups, rescue and recovery agencies, municipal management, CSIRO is also working on a Disastercouncils, insurance companies, organisations, Management Decision Support Platform to bringcommunities and individuals to better cope with all hazard capabilities together. The Platform willthe disaster events continuum; from Prevention, support the capabilities that CSIRO is currentlyPreparation, Response and Recovery (PPRR) to all focusing on, but will not limit the integration ofhazards and all agencies involved. other capabilities that we may consider either working on or collaborating for in the future.We favour a multi-disciplined approach to deliver The Platform is an effort to bring a commonpowerful solutions and tackle Australia’s major IT framework to assist decision makes in thechallenges. Our team includes specialists in 3D disaster management.simulation modelling and visualisation, geospatialsciences, environmental, physical, economic and This report will highlight our current key areas ofsocial sciences, social media monitoring and big research and development that, although broaddata mining and analytics. in their potential, can be harnessed to improveWe’re working to save lives and preserve critical the process and service delivery of disasterinfrastructure by finding powerful ways to, for management in Australia and, importantly, provideexample: high-impact solutions to strengthen our national disaster resilience in the future.◆◆understand flood behaviour in 3D and how to avoid or minimise damage◆◆predict fire behaviour and mitigate the impact of bushfire◆◆rapidly access information from geographic locations in real-time◆◆predict disaster incidence probabilities◆◆assess infrastructure damage and inform future infrastructure designs◆◆collate and correlate social media information for better decision-making◆◆forecast the likelihood of an event, where it will occur and the associated cost. Droughts and flooding rains: Australia is a land of extremes. CSIRO research aims to make our communities safer, stronger and more resilient. 3
  4. 4. CSIRO flood simulation and infrastructure impacts assessment showing hypothetical flooding in a town below China’s Geheyan Dam if the dam were to break. The colour of the water indicates flow speed (red is fast, blue is slow). Understanding floods & extreme flow events Catastrophic events like floods, dam breaks, tsunamis, storm surges, coastal inundation, volcanic eruptions and mudslides involve the large‑scale movement of fluids and solids. These extreme flow events are difficult to study because solids and fluids move in large volumes over large areas, involve many physical processes and occur over an expanse of time and space. Accurate knowledge of fluid flows during natural terrain, fill spaces, flow downwards with gravity and and man-made disasters will help disaster planners interact with and respond to objects around them. This predict serious economic, environmental and powerful modelling technique, called Smoothed Particle humanitarian consequences. To assist at-risk Hydrodynamics, delivers realistic water simulations populations, CSIRO mathematicians have developed including difficult-to-model behaviours such as wave new computational modelling techniques to motion, flow of solids wave fragmentation and splashing. better understand and prepare for flood disasters. Compared to traditional ‘bucket-fill’ techniques, our fluid Importantly, emergency services will be able to use modelling techniques provide a greater understanding this information to make effective decisions based of fluid flow impacts at the local level. Broad national on accurate data from real-life disaster scenarios. and regional assessments are important for identifying coastlines vulnerable to natural disasters, sea-level rises 3D flood modelling & visualisation and erosion. However, such assessments do not provide A well-defined understanding of fluid behaviour adequate practical information for disaster managers to using computational fluid dynamics, coupled with know what local factors may affect specific sites during landscape features via digital terrain imaging, offers an emergency 3. emergency managers and planners clear knowledge to address risks from dam breaks, storm surges, Armed with a detailed understanding of the heavy rainfall floods, tsunamis and other extreme site‑specific effects of fluid flows, floods and erosion flow events. on the local environment, your adaptation planning will be improved by knowing: the current coastal High resolution 3D flood modelling and visualisation risks and vulnerabilities; the worst coastal hazard is achieved using powerful computers that or combination of hazards; and which effective rapidly process sophisticated CSIRO-developed actions will best manage your most vulnerable areas. algorithms. Water is represented as a flow of tiny This technology gives you solid evidence to make round particles that can move around objects and important decisions and be better prepared.4 Disaster Management
  5. 5. KNOW… ◆◆how a storm surge will behave as it floods regions of economic importance ◆◆what would happen if a tsunami hit a coastlineIN REAL LIFE: ◆◆the likely nature of an extreme flow disasterDam damage and its probable impact ◆◆what infrastructure is at risk and when this isA real-life situation, for which CSIRO has performed likely to occurpredictive 3D fluid modelling and visualisation, ◆◆how to execute better flood evacuation plansis the collapse of China’s Geheyan Dam. This damwall holds back 3.4 billion cubic metres of water ◆◆where to place civil engineered structures toand is built on the Qingjiang River in China. With mitigate flood damagepopulation centres downstream of this structure, ◆◆outcomes in terms of timing, area affecteda dam break would be catastrophic. and loss of critical infrastructure and evacuation routesIn collaboration with the Satellite Surveying andMapping Application Centre (SASMAC), part of ◆◆how to plan your flood and storm rescuethe Chinese National Administration of Surveying, process and improve your recovery effortsMapping and Geo-informatics (NASG) and fundedby the ACEDP program of AusAID with support fromthe Ministry of Finance and Commerce (MOFCOM),we simulated six dam wall failure scenarios for theGeheyan Dam4. We investigated how the releasedwater would impact 50 buildings, including apreschool, a primary school, a fuel station, a locations downstream of the collapsed wall.mobile phone tower, a bank and a post office, Overlaying geographically linked information,located within 10 kilometres of the dam wall. such as populations, villages and housing, roads and transport infrastructure, factoriesHow the dam collapses dictates the area of (economic infrastructure) provides an insight intoinundation and was found to be dramatically infrastructure vulnerability and can give a cleardifferent for each predicted failure scenario, picture of the damage that would occur.including analysing the dam wall debris carriedalong by the water for each scenario. We In Australia, we’ve also modelled what will happenmodelled the water discharge rates and were if a similar failure scenario occurred for WA’sable to calculate inundation levels at six different Mundaring Dam, upstream of the city of Perth.CSIRO 3D flood simulation and infrastructure impacts assessment. A still from a computer simulation showing a dam wallbreaking apart. 5
  6. 6. As Australia’s climate changes and our population grows to reside in peri-urban bushland, we face increasing incidence of bushfire threat to human lives, property and infrastructure. Understanding your bushfire exposure Bushfire is one of the world’s most dangerous natural phenomena and, sadly, has been responsible for killing over 300 Australians in the past 50 years. On average, bushfires in Australia cause over $70 million in damage annually. In addition up to $1.0 billion is spent each year on managing bushfires, not including the time and effort expended by our 300,000 volunteer firefighters engaged across the country. As Australia’s climate changes and our population influence fire occurrence, spread, mitigation and grows to reside in peri-urban bushland, we face suppression. This will help rural fire authorities and increasing incidence of bushfire threat to human land management agencies reduce and prevent the lives, property and infrastructure. devastating and costly impact of bushfires on the community and the environment. The extreme weather and bushfire conditions of 2009’s Black Saturday bushfires resulted in the loss of 173 lives, injured 414 people and destroyed Bushfire behaviour modelling over 2000 houses and 3500 structures. This Bushfires result from complex interactions between disaster impelled authorities to find ways to better the vegetation (fuel), the weather, the landscape understand the complex, interconnected factors (topography), combustion chemistry and heat that cause bushfires to provide a safer environment transfer physics. Making sense of the variables for people to live. that influence fire behaviour and their interactions is a highly skilled task. The more we learn about Current bushfire prediction tools use information fire, the more information we have to make better from fires in modest weather conditions and are decisions about fire management, prevention then extrapolated to extreme conditions by ad and suppression. hoc observations of wildfire events. Unfortunately, this empirical approach fails to completely capture Our Bushfire Dynamics and Applications scientists the range of behaviours expected from fires are advancing fire spread prediction and bushfire burning under more severe conditions. We need suppression systems using sophisticated data to understand how a high-intensity bushfire will analysis techniques and computer modelling. In behave in extreme weather. conjunction with state land management, rural fire agencies and other research agencies such as Through powerful digital science and technology the Bureau of Meteorology, our scientists apply advances, we gain a greater knowledge of bushfire knowledge of bushfire dynamics to real events and behaviour and understanding of the conditions that assist in predicting risk scenarios.6 Disaster Management
  7. 7. To unlock the mysteries of bushfire behaviour, our team performs laboratory and field experiments, IN REAL LIFE: physical investigations and statistical analyses. Our Knowledge from the experimental equipment includes large vertical and horizontal wind tunnels, plus sensors and Kilmore East fire measurement devices. Our predictive fire behaviour Black Saturday’s most significant bushfire was the models - including those relating to initial Kilmore East fire. The fire claimed 119 lives and attack, aerial suppression, fuel moisture and fire burnt through 100,140 hectares in the first 12 hours5. spread - draw on extensive results from scientific experiments investigating various vegetation types This kind of fire intensity is not unprecedented in and weather conditions. south-eastern Australia. The recurrence of large one-day fires is a relatively frequent event in the We’re well-positioned to provide valuable region which is why it is critical to get a better information about bushfire dynamics and understanding of large-scale fire phenomena. emergency response operations, to develop improved fire danger rating systems, to provide Investigating weather conditions, fuels and better public warnings and preparedness, to advise propagation, a CSIRO collaborative report on the on firefighter safety and training, to simulate Kilmore East fire provides valuable insights into fire behaviour and design effective decision the physical processes involved in high intensity support systems, to optimise fire suppression fire behaviour in eucalypt forests 4. In particular, resources and logistics for maximum efficiency the combination of dry fuel and gale force winds and to develop prescribed burning guides for caused the ignition of spotfires up to 33 km different environments. ahead of the main fire front, and a change in wind direction turned a 55 km wide flank into an In addition, our strength in mathematical uncontrollable headfire. modelling and examining how a bushfire event unfolds over time, across a given landscape, under This case study highlights a critical need to varying weather conditions and through changing improve our quantitative knowledge of large‑scale vegetation, allows us to model bushfire scenarios bushfires and for current bushfire behaviour based on fuel moisture, fire behaviour and spotfire models to be redesigned to account for spotting probability, which are all important aspects that dynamics and fire-atmosphere interactions. In inform land management agencies and rural fire addition, this study provides real-world data authorities how to safely prepare for and respond for future simulation studies on the impact of to bushfires and enhance public safety. landscape fuel management on fire propagation in extreme conditions. Current fire behaviour tools fail to incorporate the latest knowledge in fire science, limiting forecast quality and impairing critical decision making regarding community protection and safeUNDERSTAND… and effective fire-fighting. Therefore, CSIRO is◆◆the true environmental impacts of fire on the proposing a National Fire Behaviour Knowledge landscape, biodiversity, air quality, carbon and water Base that will integrate up-to-date fire behaviour, fire weather, fuel dynamics, and suppression◆◆how to classify vegetation and bush/rural-urban capability knowledge and science to help fire interface zones for hazard and risk assessments managers better predict bushfire behaviour and◆◆the most effective deployment of resources in real‑time better plan prescribed burns. for early suppression and evacuation warnings This state-of-the-art decision tool could provide◆◆where a bushfire may occur in the future: predictive information: bushfire modelling ◆◆to improve our understanding of the propagation◆◆the optimum location and design of infrastructure in and energy release of fires bushfire-prone regions ◆◆for more effective and safer fire fighting◆◆how to manage a bushfire with efficient use of ◆◆for enhanced protection of rural and bushland available resources urban communities, and ◆◆to reduce the detrimental effects of fire on our◆◆how to find alternative routes for fire trucks after an natural resources. access route is blocked (i.e. bridge collapse) Such decision support tools for predicting◆◆the effectiveness of fire mitigation and fire suppression real‑time fire danger and behaviour could provide actions (i.e. where and when to perform safe fuel better fuel mitigation planning, public warnings reduction burns) and preparedness to reduce the likelihood of◆◆which critical infrastructure is located in high-risk catastrophic bushfires. bushfire zones and how can we better protect it 7
  8. 8. Australia’s support for Indonesia’s rural growth aims to grow the economy, create employment and alleviate poverty. Credit: Josh Estey/AusAID Accessing integrated information Rapid access and sharing of accurate, integrated information is critical for governments, rescue agencies and communities to make life-saving decisions and effectively co-ordinate disaster responses. To reference and integrate important information A common gazetteer framework for for shared situational awareness, governments, effective disaster response agencies and communities use gazetteers – lists of place names linked with their geographic locations. Because gazetteers hold valuable information for disaster management agencies, an online When different purpose-specific gazetteers are system to make this rich geospatial information accessed by emergency and community services, source completely accessible, interoperable and confusion about the name of the location under time‑efficient is essential for evidence-based impact may arise and the efficiency of the disaster decision making. response may be compromised. For example, if a specific location on the map is known by more than To enhance the interoperability of gazetteers, one name, coordinating an emergency response CSIRO informatics experts are developing a global to a disaster affecting the location becomes information system to link and correlate multiple more challenging. sources of information using a gazetteer framework to better manage and share spatial information. Conversely, information linked to a specific Timely information held in different agency systems geographic location can be successfully and referenced using gazetteers will be more easily interrelated to additional information, as long as accessible through an integration mechanism. This the geographic location is the same. In theory this will support disaster risk reduction and response by means one gazetteer’s contents should be able enabling rapid access, query and dissemination and to crosslink via geographic location to another use of information for improved decision-making gazetteer’s contents. impacting potentially millions of people. However, in reality, dealing with the disparity CSIRO’s gazetteer project provides the foundations between multiple, often overlapping and often for development of event or problem specific inconsistent agency-specific gazetteer systems applications for responding to environmental makes linking them a slow and expensive process. disasters, economic crises and emergencies. The Interoperability challenges arise at every stage common gazetteer framework will also enable the of information discovery, access, interpretation, integration of volunteered geographic information transformation and integration. with formal government information sources.8 Disaster Management
  9. 9. ONE REAL WORD FEATURE: a bus station One real world feature: One real world feature: a bus station   a bus station a bus station   a bus station BIG BIG National Gazetteer of Indonesia BIG National Gazetteer Department of DEPARTMENT OF Transport Gazetteer Department of TRANSPORT Transport NATIONAL GAZETTEER OF INDONESIA of Indonesia of Bus Terminals of Bus DATASET BUS TERMINUS Terminals Gazetteer Represented in Represented in multiple systems  systems Represented in multiple systems  multiple IN REAL LIFE: Gazetteers for social using different names, and classified  using different names, and classified  using different and represented in different ways classified and represented in different ways names, and and represented in different ways Identifier Merak, Identifier    e a , Bis Feature Type Transport Feature Type Footprint Identifier    Footprint Point StasiunStas u Bis Transport            Points Transport            Point Merak, Stasiun s a Merak, Stasiun Bis a spo t spo a , Stas uo t e t Merak o t Identifier Feature Type MerakIdentifier Terminal Feature Type Footprint Feature Type    Footprint Identifier Footprint Polygon Feature Type    Footprint Terminal           Polygon Terminal           Polygon Merakyg yg protectionMerak, Stasiun Bis MERAK,Merak, Stasiun Bis Merak Merak MERAK Currently systems are  Currently systems are  disconnected and difficult to integrate disconnected and difficult to integrate In Indonesia, 240 million people live with natural disasters, such as earthquakes, tsunamis andGazetir Indeonesia Terminus Dataset Terminus Dataset STASIUM BIS Indeonesia Gazetir Terminus Gazetir Dataset Indeonesia Currently systems are disconnected and volcanic eruptions, as well as global and local difficult to integrate economic difficulties. These complex situations, Merak, Stasiun Bis (Gazetteer Entry)  Merak, Stasiun Bis Merak (Gazetteer Entry)  (Gazetteer Entry) Merak GAZETTER FRAMEWORK (Gazetteer Entry) GAZETTER FRAMEWORK coupled with poverty, burden Indonesia’s Links gazetteers (based on same  Links gazetteers (based on same  Gazetir Indonesia Gazetir Indonesia Terminus Dataset (Gazetteer) feature in different gazetteers) Terminus Dataset (Gazetteer) feature in different gazetteers) government and aid resources. (Gazetteer) Same as  (Gazetteer) Same as  used in web applications and other  used in web applications and other  Used in Used in Used in Used in online resources. online resources. MERAK, Navigation application Navigation application Online Public  Passenger Travel Stats  Online Public  MERAK Passenger Travel Stats  Disaster and social assistance programs in STASIUM BISTransport Map Indonesia collect and store valuable information. Linked Resource Linked Resource Application  Transport Map Application  (Gazetteer Entry) Linked Resource Linked Resource Linked Resource Linked Resource (Entry) Yet, due to a range of integration challenges, GAZETTER GAZETIR INDONESIA Same as TERMINUS DATASET FRAMEWORK Links gazetteers this information is difficult to access and use (Gazetteer) (Gazetteer) that reference the same real world effectively in responding to the needs of feature. Used in Used in Links web applications and vulnerable people. other online NAVIGATION PUBLIC PASSENGER resources. CSIRO, in collaboration with the Indonesian APPLICATION Linked Resource TRANSPORT MAP Linked resource TRAVEL STATS Linked resource Government and the UN, is contributing to social protection work being supported by AusAID in Indonesia by developing a pilot gazetteer Gazetteers are directories of lists of place names with geographic framework. Its aim is to improve access to locations. CSIRO is working on a pilot project with collaborators like the UN and AusAID to integrate gazetteers in Indonesia. gazetteers and information about places that enable monitoring of vulnerable populations, the rapid analysis and response to shocks that impact them. More generally, the technology platform will also benefit Australian research initiatives using The prevalent use of mobile phones and on-line information that is currently difficult and time tools in Indonesia provides a stream of up-to-date consuming to correlate. This will be analysed in a informal information that could be tapped into routine fashion creating new opportunities in fields and linked to locations using gazetteers. Based on of sustainability, hydrology and health risk. the use of well-managed gazetteers, this informal ‘crowd-sourced’ information can be rapidly The goal of this research is to radically improve referenced, organised and integrated with formal interoperability and availability of information in information providing an up-to-date picture of disparate systems, through developing a framework what is happening on the ground. to manage and access integrate unambiguous references to places contained within gazetteers. This will greatly assist agencies involved in social protection by enable better policy decisions and In essence, a the gazetteer framework will enable will help aid agencies better identify populations the rapid integration of information before and experiencing financial and other stresses and during an emergency response, to improve our deliver assistance in a timely manner. understanding of what is happening where and help government agencies deliver critical services where they are needed most. IDENTIFY… ◆◆valuable information by interpreting and integrating gazetteer information from informal and formal sources ◆◆the disaster area quickly and respond efficiently ◆◆which populations are located in high-risk regions ◆◆when a community in a specific location is under financial stress ◆◆how much rain is falling on a flood-vulnerable community ◆◆disaster-affected populations using up-to-date information ◆◆which natural phenomenon has occurred and what’s happening in real time 9
  10. 10. CSIRO is helping business and infrastructure owners and insurers better determine the risk of a disaster event occurring and estimate the maximum foreseeable loss (MFL). Estimating disaster odds and dollars Knowing if, when and where a natural or man-made disaster event may occur is essential for emergency planning and prevention, and for ensuring your disaster response and recovery processes are adequate. For example, in order to quantify bushfire risks, the major steps in fire ignition, spread and impact need to be understood and modelled. Furthermore, it is a complicated task for Estimating your maximum companies with infrastructure and investments foreseeable loss in disaster‑prone areas to determine the risk of a disaster event occurring and to estimate Despite their complexity, if historical information is the maximum foreseeable loss (MFL) they may available, events such as fires, floods, heatwaves and experience as a result of the disaster. Likewise, storm tides can be simulated. The resulting losses to setting premiums for insuring infrastructure infrastructure and natural resources can be estimated and property in disaster-prone regions is also a using data on land use, topography, vegetation, complex task. weather and the value of structures, crops and forests. Experimental and statistical research can also Flood and fire events are part of the Australian tell us about fluid flow or fire ignition/burn rates and environment. For these disasters, we investigate: the probability that the flood or fire will escalate and the complexity of the environment over time and cause further loss. space; extensive amounts of data, information and knowledge of differing form and quality necessary Understanding the MFL for your service business, or for risk determination; mitigation and control undertaking risk analysis, management or mitigation processes; and the multiple, often conflicting in relation to a disaster, requires an in-depth decision needs or requirements of your company understanding of the unfolding disaster phases. or organisation.10 Disaster Management
  11. 11. We employ four broad quantitative approaches todetermine your disaster risk: IN REAL LIFE:1. we study major historical events, Powerful estimates2. we undertake a statistical analysis of past, CSIRO conducted a study for the West Australian related insurance claims, electricity distribution company, Western Power, to estimate the potential total claimable damage3. we simulate several worst-case disaster (MFL) for fires that might be started by the electrical scenarios (Extreme Value Analysis) in one distribution system in the Perth Hills. This work or more study areas, to approximate the incorporated two approaches. In the first approach ‘1 in N year’ conditions and impacts, and we applied Extreme Value Analysis to estimate4. we perform a full regional probabilistic analysis 1-in-50 and 1-in-100 year claims based on historical of the disaster phases. claims data. In the second approach we studied the prevailing weather conditions at periods of high fireOur multi-disciplinary research team will address, danger and then used this information to simulatein a comprehensive way, the question of MFL bushfires spreading from selected points on theestimation as well as more general challenges distribution network. Both approaches providedaround your disaster risk analysis, management Western Power with insight into their MFL for theand mitigation. region of interest. In a second fire risk project, Western Power contracted CSIRO to determine the likelihood and MFL for fires that may ignite from their electrical distribution infrastructure in the economically important wine-making region of Margaret River. To estimate the MFL from fire for this region, we identified several challenges that may arise. Firstly, the negative impact of ‘smoke taint’ on grapes over a wide area, with regard to wind speed and direction, smoke altitude and smoke dispersion was investigated. Secondly, we predicted the nature of fire spread through vineyards, includingESTIMATE… the effect of trellis pole material, row orientation and whether the vine undergrowth is grassed or◆◆the probability a flood will inundate a mown. Thirdly, protection of critical infrastructure particular township or location of major winery facilities was taken into account, along with an understanding of the fire conditions◆◆the likelihood of a bushfire destroying that will likely cause damage to these assets. Finally, buildings in a given region an estimate was made of the claimable value of◆◆what infrastructure is at risk of being vineyards, wineries and wine stocks if these are affected by a disaster damaged or destroyed by fire.◆◆how much it will cost to repair the disaster damage◆◆how long a service or supply will be unavailable due to a given disaster event◆◆objective insurance levels and negotiate favourable premiums 11
  12. 12. Social media and human services Social networking websites, such as Twitter, have changed the way people broadcast and receive information. Vast amounts of instantaneous information are communicated via Twitter every minute. Short real-time messages, limited to 140 characters, allow unfiltered, uncensored news and information to be instantly posted online. Social media channels provide a new, rich source of information from which disaster managers and emergency response agencies can obtain real-time awareness of developing situations. However, the deluge of information that can be extracted from social media sources is not in an accessible format to inform emergency responses. For example, information about the 2009 Victorian bushfires was reported in real-time on social network sites but was not visible to state or federal disaster response agencies. The potential applications of social media information for disaster managers include providing: evidence of pre-incident activity; near real-time notice of an incident occurring; first-hand reports of incident impacts; and Our Emergency Situational Awareness software detects gauging community response to an emergency unusual behaviour on Twitter and alerts the user when a disaster event is being discussed. warning. Importantly, such information will contribute towards effective decisions for emergency responses. Yet to do this, we need a robust way to identify and Another social media engagement software tool, analyse emerging topics in Twitter that indicate a called Vizie, was developed as part of CSIRO’s significant disaster, emergency event or unexpected Human Services Delivery Research Alliance with incident is occurring within a given time frame and the Australian Government Department of Human at a given location. Services. Vizie enables a global overview of social media topics being discussed and allows related social media entries to be grouped Monitoring social media for into conversations. emergency situation awareness ESA and Vizie collect and analyse large volumes We are developing services to support automated of real-time Twitter feeds, and detect and alert social media analysis to collect, detect, assess, on unusual activity in near real-time. These tools simplify and report situation information in near cluster and summarise Twitter posts to provide real-time from Twitter. disaster managers with a clear explanation of the Our Emergency Situational Awareness (ESA) situation. Our tools classify and review high-value software detects unusual behaviour in the Twitter messages (i.e. damage to roads, bridges, power stream and quickly alerts the user when a disaster and telecommunications infrastructure) to enable event is being broadcast. ESA also stores complete rescue officers to quickly understand the impact of Twitter stream information and allows post-event a real-world event on people and infrastructure. In analyses. Such useful and accessible information addition, forensic analysis of incidents can also be will provide timely situation awareness for disaster carried out. managers and emergency response agencies.12 Disaster Management
  13. 13. ESA exploits the statistical incidence of words used by people on Twitter to describe emergency IN REAL LIFE: events, in addition to historical word occurrences Crisis coordination on Twitter from past disaster events to reveal topics that are emerging and to flag them for To better understand how to extract emergency investigation. ESA counts the number of times situation awareness information from social media, a word appears in a sliding five-minute window we have worked with the Australian Government’s across the Twitter stream. If this is significantly recently established Crisis Coordination Centre greater than expected, an alert is generated. (CCC) to develop our ESA software. The CCC Repeated every minute, these detected ‘word is a dedicated 24/7 facility that supports a bursts’ are extracted, stored and are available for whole‑of‑government response to national security access by incident response agencies via the ESA and natural disaster incidents. The goal of the web application. CCC is “to deliver the right information to the right people, in the right format, to the right place, at ESA provides situation awareness by using data the right time”. By managing the flow, processing mining techniques including burst detection, text and transformation of verified information from classification, online clustering and geo-tagging. various sources, the CCC is responsible for hazard These techniques are adapted and optimised for monitoring and situation awareness, and for the dealing with real-time high-volume text streams, timely and accurate dissemination of information which identify early indicators of unexpected on emerging risks and threats to police, emergency events, explore the impact of identified incidents services and other agencies. and monitor the evolution of events. A watch officer - the person at the front line of Importantly, our platforms gather and analyse information processing during an emergency material from the Twitter social network to provide event – logs all communications and verifiable all-hazard situation awareness information. facts relating to ‘who knew what when’. Watch officers could use the ESA tool for real-time social media monitoring of emergency events. Watch officers seek to understand the scope and impact of all hazards during the prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery phases of crisis management.ALERT & MONITOR…◆◆the unfolding impact of an incident to better plan your emergency response◆◆unexpected or unusual incidents ahead of official communications◆◆the severity of an incident on people and infrastructure◆◆high-value messages such as cries for help and indications of physical damage to infrastructure from eye-witnesses◆◆the status of damaged or at-risk infrastructure (i.e. energy and transport)◆◆aggregated information about emergency events without having to read individual messages◆◆situation awareness for emergency managers to successfully restore safety and essential services◆◆time-critical issues within an incident as they arise, develop and conclude◆◆the response to ongoing issues that may last for hours, days or weeks◆◆forensic analyses of past events to better plan for future emergencies 13
  14. 14. Understanding disaster impacts and bringing it all together… It is critical for emergency planners to know where to allocate investment across the PPRR spectrum to increase community safety and reduce the costs and social effects of emergencies and disasters. All disasters and emergencies transit through a Disaster Management Decision recognised sequence as they occur. An event, such Support Platform as a bushfire, cyclone, earthquake, flood, landslide, storm or tsunami, comprises a number of event A key focus of CSIRO’s contribution to the Disaster characteristics, such as producing physical features Management area is the development of a technology during the event, like radiant heat and thick smoke platform to bring all capabilities together, enable the in the case of a bushfire. opportunity to better understand hazards. The Disaster Management Decision Support Platform will create an These event characteristics have an effect on an environment where data, information and modelling ‘object’ such as a person or property, possibly can be more easily integrated across the hazard causing harm, where ‘harm’ is the immediate domains. It will better equip emergency planners, direct consequence that each event characteristic response coordinators etc with information to aid their has on the object. Harm can lead to a range of decision making process. observed and, in many cases, measurable ‘impacts’ (direct and indirect) which can be categorised as The platform will include facilitate interoperable economic, social or environmental. The extent of data exchange, cloud computing technologies and the final impact of the disaster is mediated by the workflow engines to enable better, more effective object’s exposure and vulnerability, which is directly information for disaster managers. The platform will proportional to measures taken towards prevention, assist in the four key elements of disaster management, preparedness, as well as fire and emergency namely Prevention, Preparedness, Response, Recovery management practices in response and recovery. (PPRR) by providing: To better understand the economic, social and ◆◆services to make data web accessible and environmental impacts that natural disasters have on interoperable Australian communities and to help inform decision ◆◆ability to integrate models making at the policy level, a more unified and ◆◆ability to integrate data and models from differing comprehensive approach to emergency management domains to aid decisions. and reducing risks is being developed by CSIRO. DISASTER MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT PLATFORM CLIENTS Discovery Desktop Statistical Impacts Portal Interface Application (GIS) Package Processing Codes Social Data Applications Media Models EXCHANGE LAYER Data Data Data Data Data RESOURCES A system to support decisions in disaster situations – the Disaster Management Decision Support Platform14 Disaster Management
  15. 15. OUR VISION – INTERGRATED DISASTER MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT PLATFORM POLICY Need: Disaster Emergency Response/Decision Support Management Response BUSINESS NEED Integrated Bush fire Analysis Social Impact Analysis Science Domain/Systems APPLICATIONS Applications: Landscape Climate/Weather Financial Urban Fuel Specific Science Modelling Modelling Scenarios Models Domains SYSTEMS Models and analytical tools Processing re Processing re Processing re Processing re Processing re services a services a services a services a services a ew ew ew ew ew dl dl dl dl dl id id id id id M Data M Data M Data M Data M Data Virtual Libraries/Inputs: Landscape Urban Data Knowledge Bases Fuels Climate/Weather Finance (Services) Characteristics (pop. density etc)Prepared by Ryan Fraser, adapted from work by Lesley Wyborn (Geoscience Australia), 2012Vision for all hazards approach to disaster management using the Disaster Management Decision Support Platform forinformed decisionsThe platform will provide a system to enable effective infrastructure. After an event, the portal will yielddecision making processes and timely access to information about the impacts that resulted.information and modelling capacity. To provide context for the disaster event and impact, the Portal includes data items, such asIN REAL LIFE: bridges, road signage, fencing, national park facilities (BBQs, shelters, toilets), telephone poles,The portal experience the electricity network, fire towers, field cropsA demonstration of the ‘all hazards’ approach is a and so on. Where available, data items relatingweb‑interface called the Impacts Portal, developed by to demographics, the built environment, localCSIRO and the NSW Fire and Rescue Service. government boundaries, residential zoning and land use will also be accessible.Before an event, the Impacts Portal can be used toplan ‘what if’ scenarios, such as disaster modelling The pilot Impacts Portal is under evaluation. Try itand disaster risk mapping, to develop policy, to out and provide feedback at www.fend.org.au.conduct land use analysis and risk assessments andinform disaster mitigation through preparedness and The Impacts Portal user will be able to:mitigation. During an event, the portal will assist ◆◆Explore the Impacts Framework data withinwith planning and resource prioritisation of frontline the Portal - navigating by disaster categorystaff, inform the development of safety programs (bushfire, cyclone, flood, and so on), the eventand identify vulnerable and ‘at-risk’ communities and characteristics, the type of objects impacted by an event, the harm that results, and the economic, social and environmental impacts themselves, or a combination of these. ◆◆Find data items geographically by navigating aTHE PLATFORM WILL... map of Australia using pan and zoom functions or by specifying a starting state or ABS statistical◆◆make data from various providers interoperable and easier to integrate region, as well as enable or disable category layers of data that have a location component.◆◆allow users to access disaster event data by geographic region and time ◆◆Find data items by disaster category and discover details (impacts) of specific events.◆◆provide mechanisms to run models on data ◆◆Find instances of natural disaster and fire◆◆ability to integrate data and models to emergency events that have previously occurred in aid decisions the region of interest. 15
  16. 16. A final word As Australia’s national science agency, we offer a multi-pronged ‘all-under-one-roof’ approach to support and enhance disaster management in Australia and internationally. Being one of the largest and most diverse research agencies in the world, we’re reaching out to emergency managers, planners and decision makers to connect you with the right scientific experts and tools for your problem and help you develop your emergency management solution. If your organisation needs to understand an associated disaster risk, potential damage, cost outcomes or any other quantifiable uncertainty, then, as your scientific advisor, CSIRO can work with you. The multi-faceted nature of disaster and emergency management in Australia means we need you to tell us what we can do to help. We’re not disaster planners or emergency managers, but we do have the expertise to expand and enhance your response efforts. Beach erosion on the Queensland Gold Coast. Under the newly established Digital Productivity and Services Flagship, we aim to develop and apply frontier services science and technology to add Yet like you, we want Australian citizens and $5 billion in value to the Australian economy by 2025 emergency workers to be safe from harm. And we want through improved risk management, infrastructure to support our neighbours in the Asia‑Pacific region. effectiveness, new business opportunities and transforming public service delivery. We’re poised to help local councils and community networks understand and develop awareness of risks As advances in digital productivity continue to be during storms, floods and heatwaves. This includes made, real-time situation awareness will direct more preparing and planning for natural disasters, being and more disaster management decisions. Knowing alert and knowing what to do when a disaster event how to access, interpret and respond appropriately warning is issued, how to be safe during an emergency to the abundance of rich information is key. and what to do after an emergency event to stay safe. Furthermore, communicating information to raise community awareness about the risk of a disaster, We want rescue funds and resources to be used an unfolding disaster or what to do after a disaster is efficiently and effectively. We want Australians to pay also important. fair premiums for insurance. And, above all, we want to give you the best tools and strategies Safe solutions to meet your disaster management challenges. This report is about you, not us. We’re experts Think broadly (imagine, even) how you want to in applying scientific principles to solve difficult improve your organisation’s disaster management problems, but we’re not working directly in, or on productivity. Then contact us, because we’re here to the fringes of, the disaster zone. figure it out with you and help you take a step closer to achieving a great solution.16 Disaster Management
  17. 17. References1. Guha-Sapir D, Vos F, Below R, with Ponserre S (2012) Annual Disaster Statistical Review 2011: The Numbers and Trends. Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), Brussels.2. National Strategy for Disaster Resilience. Council of Australian Governments (February 2011) http://www. dpc.vic.gov.au/index.php/featured/reforming-victorias- crisis-and-emergency-management-framework/ disaster-resilience3. Sharples C, Attwater C and Carley J (2008) Conference Papers: IPWEA National Conference on Climate Change ‘Responding to Sea Level Rise’, August, Coffs Harbour.4. Cleary PW, Prakash M, Mead S, Tang X, Wang H and Ouyang S. Dynamic simulation of dam break scenarios for risk analysis and disaster management. Accepted for publication in International Journal of Image and Data Fusion.5. Cruz MG, Sullivan AL, Gould JS, Sims NC, Bannister AJ, Hollis JJ and Hurley R (2012) Anatomy of a catastrophic wildfire: The Black Saturday Kilmore East fire. Forest Ecology and Management 284: 269-285. http://dx.doi. org/10.1016/j.foreco.2012.02.035 17
  18. 18. CONTACT US FOR FURTHER INFORMATION COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMERt 1300 363 400 CSIRO Mathematics, Informatics © 2012 CSIRO. To the extent permitted by +61 3 9545 2176 and Statistics law, all rights are reserved and no parte enquiries@csiro.au Charlie Hawkins of this publication covered by copyrightw www.csiro.au t +61 3 9545 8079 may be reproduced or copied in any form m +61 438 429 280 or by any means except with the writtenYOUR CSIRO e charlie.hawkins@csiro.au permission of CSIRO.Australia is founding its future onscience and innovation. Its nationalscience agency, CSIRO, is a powerhouseof ideas, technologies and skills forbuilding prosperity, growth, health andsustainability. It serves governments,industries, business and communitiesacross the nation. CS ACT 2012 • DPSFlagship_DisasterMangementReport.inddFront cover image: Queensland Police at flooded suburban street during Brisbane River floods, January 2011. Credit: Glenn Walker

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