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Hout&fischer pew 8 aug
1. Americans’ Weakening Ties to Organized
Religion, 1973-2012:
Generations & Politics
Michael Hout
New York University
Claude S. Fischer
University of California, Berkeley
Pew Research Centers
Religion & Public Life Project
8 August 2013
1
2. We analyzed the trend 1973–2000
Politics:
Political liberals and
moderates —
but not conservatives —
increasingly declared no
religion
Generations:
Cohort replacement
accounted for 40% of the
trend
Why do generations
differ?
American Sociological Review, April 2002
2
17. Two more considerations
Many parents emphasize
“think for yourself” over
obedience
Undermines the authority
in traditional authority
… including the teaching
authority of religious
leaders
Academic literature: Miller & Swanson, Lenski, Kohn, Alwin.
17
18. … and secularization
Heaven
Afterlife
Miracles
Hell
God
no doubt
Bible
word-for-word
Atheist or Agnostic
0
25
50
75
100
Belief(%)
1900 1915 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990
Year of Birth
Source: General Social Surveys, 1988-2010.
Boomers skeptical about Bible
Recent cohorts have more doubts about God & more agnostic
18
20. Random effects model of cohort differences
Null New
Personal characteristics
Period: dummies
Cohort: random effects
Personal characteristics
Period: dummies
Cohort: random effects
Counter-cultural attitudes
regarding sex & drugs
Values independent thinking
Secularization index
20
21. Random effects model of cohort differences
Null New
Personal characteristics
Period: dummies
Cohort: random effects
Personal characteristics
Period: dummies
Cohort: random effects
Counter-cultural attitudes
regarding sex & drugs
Values independent thinking
Secularization index
Cohort differences,
not personal
21
22. Cohort differences explained by sex, drugs, and
independent thinking (not disbelief)
Coefficients for Cohort Covariates and the Standard Deviations of
Cohort Random Effects
Coefficients for Cohort Covariates and the Standard Deviations of
Cohort Random Effects
Coefficients for Cohort Covariates and the Standard Deviations of
Cohort Random Effects
Cohort variable Null New
Counter-cultural attitudes
regarding sex and drugs
— 0.36Counter-cultural attitudes
regarding sex and drugs (0.07)
Values independent thinking — 0.24
(0.06)
Secularization index — 0.04
(0.03)
Cohort: random effects (σ) 0.41 0.08
(0.05) (0.03)
Note: Standard errors in parentheses. Significant coefficients in bold.Note: Standard errors in parentheses. Significant coefficients in bold.Note: Standard errors in parentheses. Significant coefficients in bold.
22
23. Conclusions
Politics:
Political liberals and
moderates —
but not conservatives —
increasingly declared no
religion
Generations:
Cohort replacement
accounted for 40% of the
trend
American Sociological Review, April 2002
23
24. Conclusions
Politics:
Political liberals and moderates
—
but not conservatives —
increasingly declared no
religion
Generations:
Cohort replacement accounted
for 60% of the trend
Baby boom and later
generations developed
values and attitudes that
undermine traditional
authority
No sign of secularization
American Sociological Review, April 2002
Confirmed
Extended
24