alan-cooperman-new-research-on-us-and-global-religious-identities-and-practices.pptx

1
The Landscape: New Research on U.S.
and Global Religious Identities &
Practices
A presentation for the Harvard Divinity School Dean’s
Leadership Forum
Alan Cooperman
Director of Religion Research
Religion & Public Life Project
Note: Not for publication, dissemination or quotation without the Pew Research Center’s permission.

Pew Research Center, The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections 2010-2050
Median Age of Religious Groups, 2010

Total Fertility Rate by Religion, 2010-2015
3
Muslims 3.1
Christians 2.7
World 2.5
Hindus 2.4
Jews 2.3
Folk Religions 1.8
Unaffiliated 1.7
Other Religions 1.7
Buddhists 1.6

6
Life Expectancy at Birth by Religious Group,
2010-2055
Note: Data on life expectancy differences by religion within countries are not available. These results assume that within each country, all major religious groups
have the same life expectancy at birth. Global differences between religious groups result from differences in the geographic distribution of the groups. Differences
in life expectancy between periods are calculated based on unrounded values. Source: Calculations based on United Nations life tables, World Population
Prospects: The 2010 Revision.

7
Projected Cumulative Change Due to Religious
Switching, 2010-2050
Source: The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050
Unaffiliated
Muslims
Folk Religions
Other Religions
Hindus
Jews
Buddhists
Christians

8
Islam Growing Fastest

9
Projected Change in
Global Population:
Number of People 2010-
2050, in billions
With the exception of
Buddhists, all of the major
religious groups are expected to
increase in number by 2050.

10
Projected Change in
Global Population:
Percent of Global
Population 2010-2050
But some will not keep pace with global
population growth, and, as a result, are
expected to make up a smaller percentage
of the world’s population in 2050 than
they did in 2010.

11
Long-Term Projections of Christian and
Muslim Shares of World’s Population

Countries that will no longer have a Christian
majority in 2050
12
Majority Religion
2010
% of
Population
2010
Majority/Largest
Religion 2050
% of
Population
2050
Australia Christians 67.3 Christians 47.0
United Kingdom Christians 64.3 Christians 45.4
Benin Christians 53.0 Christians 48.5
France Christians 63.0 Unaffiliated 44.1
Republic of Macedonia Christians 59.3 Muslims 56.2
New Zealand Christians 57.0 Unaffiliated 45.1
Bosnia-Herzegovina Christians 52.3 Muslims 49.4
Netherlands Christians 50.6 Unaffiliated 49.1

13
Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding. Source: The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050
Projected Religious
Composition of the
U.S., 2010-2050

14
Source: General Social Surveys, 1972-2014. Other religious affiliations and those who did not give an answer are not shown.
62%
48%
27 25
5
21
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1972 2014
Protestant
Catholic
None
%
Actual Long-Term Trends in Religious Affiliation

15
Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center, 2007 and 2012. Changes that are statistically significant are shown in
bold.
2007 2012 Change
% who describe themselves as
religiously unaffiliated among… % %
U.S. general public 15.3 19.6 +4.3
Men 18 23 +5
Women 13 17 +4
College grad+ 17 21 +4
Some college or less 15 19 +4
$75,000+ 16 21 +5
$30,000-$74,999 15 20 +5
<$30,000 17 20 +3
Northeast 15 21 +6
Midwest 15 19 +4
South 12 15 +3
West 21 26 +5
Growth in Religious Disaffiliation, by
Demographic Groups

16
Younger Adults Are More Unaffiliated
Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center, January-September 2013. Figures may not sum to 100% due to rounding.
31%
21%
15%
10%
Ages 18-29
30-49
50-64
65+

Source: General Social Surveys, 1970-2012.
17
% Unaffiliated with a Religion, by Generation
3
7
6
10
13
15
20 21
26%
29%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Early '70s Late '70s Early '80s Late '80s Early '90s Late '90s Early '00s Late '00s Early '10s
Greatest (born before 1928) Silent (1928-1945) Baby Boomers (1946-1964)
Generation X (1965-1980) Millennials (1981-1994)
%

Source: General Social Surveys, 1970-2012.
18
Daily Prayer
69%
72%
59
68
47
64
42
58
41
43
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Early '70s Late '70s Early '80s Late '80s Early '90s Late '90s Early '00s Late '00s Early '10s
Greatest (born before 1928) Silent (1928-1945) Baby Boomers (1946-1964)
Generation X (1965-1980) Millennials (1981-1994)
% saying they pray daily, by generation
%

Religious Attendance of U.S. Adults, 2003-2013
19
Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center, 2003-2013.
39%
37%
34
33
25
29
0
10
20
30
40
50
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Weekly or more
Seldom/Never
Monthly/Yearly
%

20
Religious Stability or Modest Decline?
Prayer 1987 2012
Say prayer is important part of their daily life 76% 76%
Attendance 2003 2012
Say they attend worship services weekly or more 39% 37%
Importance of religion 2007 2012
Say religion is very important to them 61% 58%
Existence of God 1987 2012
Say they “never doubt” the existence of God 88% 80%
Source: Pew Research Center surveys conducted in 2012, 2007, 2003, and 1987.
% of U.S. adults who…

21
END OF THE WORLD!
What it means for
YOUR stock
portfolio

22
Full text pages 17-
19
END OF THE WORLD!

23
Full-color weather
maps, page 10
END OF THE WORLD!

24
END OF THE WORLD.
Some revisions to our
demographic projections for
the world’s religious groups
may be necessary.

Contact Information
Alan Cooperman
Director, Religion Research
acooperman@pewresearch.org
Subscribe to our daily and weekly e-newsletters:
http://www.pewresearch.org/religion-newsletter/

Unaffiliated Are Nearly as Solidly Democratic as
White Evangelical Protestants Are Republican
26
% who are/lean toward ...
Dem Rep
White evangelical Protestant
Religiously unaffiliated
22%
61%
68%
25%
Source: Pew Research Center political surveys, 2014, based on the general public. Note: Whites include only those who are not Hispanic.

Religious Composition of Registered Voters, 2012
White
Evangelical
Protestants
34%
White
Mainline
Protestants
20%
Black
Protestants
1%
White
Catholics
18%
Hispanic
Catholics
3%
Religiously
Unaffiliated
11%
Other
13%
27
Source: Aggregated data from Pew Research Center surveys conducted in 2012, based on registered voters. The “other” category includes members of smaller
religious groups (e.g., Mormons, Jews, Muslims, Buddhists, Hindus and others) as well as Protestants and Catholics who describe their race as something
other than white, black or Hispanic (e.g., Asian, mixed race). Whites and blacks include only those who are not Hispanic.
Republicans/Republican
Leaners White
Evangelical
Protestants
9%
White
Mainline
Protestants
14%
Black
Protestants
16%
White
Catholics
13%
Hispanic
Catholics
5%
Religiously
Unaffiliated
24%
Other
18%
Democrats/Democratic
Leaners

Views About Churches and Religious Organizations
28
70%
67
67
47%
47
41
Unaffiliated Affiliated
Are too concerned with money
and power
Focus too much on rules
Are too involved with politics
% saying they agree that churches and other religious organizations…
Source: Pew Research Center/Religion & Ethics NewsWeekly survey, June 28-July 9, 2012.

29
Current Marital Status, 1960-2010
Note: Based on adults ages 18 and older. Percents may not total 100% due to rounding.
Source: Pew Research Center’s Social and Demographic Trends analysis of Decennial Census (1960-2000) and American Community Survey data (2008, 2010),
IPUMS.
%

Rise and Decline of League Bowling
30
Source: Robert D. Putnam, Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community, 2000.

31
Confidence in Institutions, 1973-2011
% saying they have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence
Question wording: “Now I am going to read you a list of institutions in American society. Please tell me how much confidence you, yourself, have in each one – a great
deal, quite a lot, some, or very little?”
Note: Data not available for Congress in 1987.
Source: Gallup New Service Survey, conducted June 9-12, 2011. Based telephone interviews of a national sample of 1,020 adults.

Wealthier Nations Tend to Be Less Religious,
But U.S. a Prominent Exception
32
Note: The curve represents the logarithmic relationship between GDP per capita and the percentage saying that religion plays a very important role in
their lives. Germany, France, Britain % data from spring 2011; U.S., Japan % data from spring 2012. Source: Spring 2011, 2012, 2013 Global Attitudes
survey. Data for GDP per capita (PPP) from IMF World Economic Outlook Database, April 2014.

Fewer in Rich Countries Say Today Is a Good
Day; U.S. an Exception
33
Note: The curve represents the logarithmic relationship between GDP per capita and the percentage saying they are having a particularly good day.
Source: Spring 2014 Global Attitudes Survey. Data for GDP per capita (PPP) from IMF World Economic Outlook Database, April 2014.

34
The historical estimates are from the World Religion Database and the Brazilian and Mexican censuses. The 2014 estimates are based on the Pew Research
Center survey. Percentages for each year may not round to 100% due to rounding and the small share of other religious groups not shown in this chart.
Estimates include 18 countries and the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico.
Religion in Latin America: Widespread Change
in a Historically Catholic Region
% of Latin America’s population belonging to each religious group

Many Protestants Were Raised as Catholics
35
% of current Protestants who say they were raised Catholic
Source: Pew Research Center, Religion in Latin America, November 2014.
15
23
26
30
37
38
38
40
44
47
48
50
54
55
56
60
62
66
68
74%
Panama
Guatemala
Honduras
Chile
Uruguay
Puerto Rico
El Salvado
Costa Rica
Mexico
U.S. Hispanics
Dominican Rep.
Nicaragua
Brazil
Argentina
Venezuela
Bolivia
Ecuador
Peru
Paraguay
Colombia

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