Preliminary Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy for the ERCOT Region, Summer 2015.
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ERCOTS's preliminary assessment of resource adequacy for the ERCOT region in Summer of 2015. This was originally posted on March 2, 2015 on www.ercot.com. A portion of this is quoted.
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OperationalResources(excludingwind),MW64,260BasedoncurrentSeasonalMaximumSustainableLimitsreportedthroughtheunitregistrationprocess
SwitchableCapacityTotal,MW3,496InstalledcapacityofunitsthatcaninterconnectwithotherRegionsandareavailabletoERCOT
lessSwitchableCapacityUnavailabletoERCOT,MW(470)BasedonsurveyresponsesofSwitchableResourceowners
MothballResources,MW1,933BasedonseasonalMothballunitsplusProbabilityofReturnresponsesofMothballResourceowners
PrivateUseNetworkCapacityContribution,MW4,344Averagecapabilityofthetop20hoursinthesummerpeakseasonsforthepastthreeyears(2012-2014)
CapacityContributionofNon-CoastalWindResources,MW1,307Basedon12%ofinstalledcapacityfornon-coastalwindresourcesperERCOTNodalProtocolsSection3.2.6.2.2andapprovedNPRR611
CapacityContributionofCoastalWindResources,MW941Basedon56%ofinstalledcapacityforcoastalwindresourcesperERCOTNodalProtocolsSection3.2.6.2.2.andapprovedNPRR611
RMRResourcestobeunderContract,MW0NoRMRResourcescurrentlyundercontract
Non-SynchronousTiesCapacityContribution,MW517Averagecapabilityofthetop20hoursinthesummerpeakseasonsforthepastthreeyears(2012-2014)
PlannedResources(notwind)withsignedIAandAirPermit,MW294Basedonin-servicedatesprovidedbydevelopersofgenerationresources
CapacityContributionofPlannedNon-CoastalWindwithsignedIA,MW232Basedonin-servicedatesprovidedbydevelopersofgenerationresourcesand12%ofinstalledcapacityfornon-coastalwindresources
CapacityContributionofPlannedCoastalWindwithsignedIA,MW113Basedonin-servicedatesprovidedbydevelopersofgenerationresourcesand56%ofinstalledcapacityforcoastalwindresources
[a]TotalResources,MW76,968
[b]PeakDemand,MW69,057Summerpeakforecastisbasedonnormalweatherconditionsfor2002–2013
[c]ReserveCapacity[a-b],MW7,911
Forecasted
SummerSeason
PeakLoad
ExtremeLoad/
TypicalGeneration
Outages
ExtremeLoad/
ExtremeGeneration
Outages
SeasonalLoadAdjustment2,2982,298
TypicalMaintenanceOutages328328328
TypicalForcedOutages2,3612,3612,361
90thPercentileForcedOutages--2,456
[d]TotalUsesofReserveCapacity2,6894,9877,443
[e]CapacityAvailableforOperatingReserves(c-d),MW5,2222,924468
Lessthan2,300MWindicatesriskofEEA1
BasedonhistoricalaverageofplannedoutagesforJunethroughSeptemberweekdays(startinginAugust2010).
BasedonhistoricalaverageofforcedoutagesforJunethroughSeptemberweekdays(startinginAugust2010).
SeasonalAssessmentofResourceAdequacyfortheERCOTRegion
Summer2015-PRELIMINARY
ReleaseDate:March2,2015
RangeofPotentialRisks
ForecastedCapacityandDemand
Basedonextremeweatherforecastusing2011weatherdata.](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7)
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Preliminary Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy for the ERCOT Region, Summer 2015.
- 1. 1 of 17 Release Date: March 2, 2015 PRELIMINARY Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy for the ERCOT Region Summer 2015 SUMMARY The ERCOT Region is expected to have sufficient installed generating capacity to serve forecasted peak demands in the upcoming summer season (June - September 2015). For the summer season, expected new capacity additions include the natural gas fired Goldsmith Peaker project with a summer rating of 294 MW, as well as 346 MW of summer peak wind capacity. This peak wind capacity was derived by applying new summer peak capacity percentages approved by the ERCOT Board of Directors in October 2014: 12 percent for non-coastal resources and 56 percent for coastal resources. Notable capacity reductions include the three R.W. Miller gas-fired steam units (summer capacity rating of 403 MW), which are now on extended outage due to lack of cooling water. Based on ERCOT's drought risk analysis, no other changes to unit capacities due to drought conditions are anticipated or reflected in the summer assessment at this time. ERCOT will continue to monitor the potential effect of drought conditions on generation capacity. Additionally, capacity for the Notrees Battery Storage facility was changed from 34 MW to zero MW because the facility provides regulation reserves in the Ancillary Services market and is not available to deliver energy on a sustained hourly basis. This SARA report includes a forecast of 2,689 MW of unit outages, based on historical outage data since the start of the Texas Nodal Market in December 2010. At this time, ERCOT does not anticipate changes to available generation capacity for the summer season due to compliance with the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) or Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS). CSAPR came into effect on January 1, 2015, and the compliance deadline for the MATS rule for units that have not received compliance extensions is April 15, 2015. ERCOT continues to monitor implementation and consults with generation resource owners on their compliance plans for CSAPR, MATS and other environmental regulations.
- 17. 17 of 17 Release Date: March 2, 2015 Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy for the ERCOT Region Background The Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) report is a deterministic approach to considering the impact of potential variables that may affect the sufficiency of installed resources to meet the peak electrical demand on the ERCOT System during a particular season. The standard approach to assessing resource adequacy for one or more years into the future is to account for projected load and resources on a normalized basis and to require sufficient reserves (resources in excess of peak demand, on this normalized basis) to cover the uncertainty in peak demand and resource availability to meet a one-in-ten-years loss-of-load event criteria on a probabilistic basis. For seasonal assessments that look ahead less than a year, specific information may be available (such as seasonal climate forecasts or anticipated common-mode events such as drought) which can be used to consider the range of resource adequacy in a more deterministic manner. In contrast to the Capacity, Demand and Reserves (CDR) report, which addresses the sufficiency of planning reserves on an annual basis as described above, the SARA report focuses on the availability of sufficient operating reserves to avoid emergency actions such as deployment of voluntary load reduction resources. Consequently, load reduction resources included in the CDR report, such as Emergency Response Service (ERS) and Load Resources that provide operating reserves (LRs), are excluded from the SARA. The SARA report is intended to illustrate the range of resource adequacy outcomes that might occur, and thus help fulfill the reporting requirement per Public Utility Commission of Texas rule 25.362(i)(2)(H). Several sensitivity analyses are developed by varying the value of certain parameters that affect resource adequacy. The variation in these parameters is based on historic values of these parameters or adjustments by any known or expected changes.