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Summer seminar on "Hurricanes and Coastal Hazards"

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Presentation by Astrid Koch, EU Delegation's Science Counselor, on "Hurricanes and Coastal Hazards"

Presentation by Astrid Koch, EU Delegation's Science Counselor, on "Hurricanes and Coastal Hazards"

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  • Damage on the Bolivar Peninsula from Ike
  • Track chart of Hurricane Ike.
  • Track chart of Hurricane Ike.
  • Transcript

    • 1. Summer Seminar –Hurricanes & Coastal Hazards Dr. Astrid-Christina Koch Science Counselor EU Delegation to the United States in Washington
    • 2. Summer Seminar• NOAA – JRC Implementing Arrangement• Hurricane Hazards• Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale• Storm Surge• National Hurricane Center’s Products• Stay informed - Make a plan !
    • 3. Summer Seminar• NOAA – JRC Implementing Arrangement• Hurricane Hazards• Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale• Storm Surge• National Hurricane Center’s Products• Stay informed - Make a plan !
    • 4. EU-U.S. Implementing Arrangement European Commision National Oceanic and Atmospheric Joint Research Centre (JRC) Administration (NOAA)• NOAA and the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre signed an implementation arrangement on scientific and other cooperative activities in the fields of climate, weather, oceans and coasts• Umbrella agreement is the EU-US Science &Technology Agreement of 1998 signed by the Department of State and the European Commission
    • 5. EU-U.S. Implementing Arrangement National Oceanic and AtmosphericJoint Research Centre (JRC) Adminstration (NOAA)Dominique Ristori Jane Lubchenco
    • 6. EU-U.S. Implementing Arrangement National Oceanic and Atmospheric Joint Research Centre (JRC) Dominique Ristori Adminstration (NOAA) Jane LubchencoJoint priorities: • Earth observation and data sharing • Climate prediction and monitoring • Regional/global modeling of coastal hazards • Space weather prediction and impact mitigation • Atmospheric and air quality monitoring • Environmental contaminants in marine environments • Fisheries research and management • Promoting coastal activities within multilateral fora
    • 7. Specific Nature of Collaboration• Areas of collaboration – Timely exchange of relevant information on grants and proposals – Regular review of both Sides’ program reviews and agency announcements – Shared access to some laboratory facilities, equipment, and materials – Exchange of personnel with administrative approval – Shared scientific infrastructure and training of scientists and experts – Support for joint research and content development for mutual value• Coordination – Five-year duration – No financial obligations – Intellectual property rights maintained
    • 8. GMES: Dedicated to Space Infrastructure•Sentinel 1 – SAR imaging (radar data) (2011) – All weather, day/night applications, interferometry – successor of ENVISAT•Sentinel 2 – Multispectral imaging (2012) – for land applications, e.g. urban, forest, agriculture – successor of SPOT, Landsat•Sentinel 3 – Ocean & Land monitoring (2012) – Wide-swath ocean color, vegetation, sea/land surface temperature, ocean altimetry•Sentinel 4 – Geostationary atmospheric (2017) – Atmospheric composition monitoring, trans-boundary pollution•Sentinel 5 – Low-orbit atmospheric (2019) – Atmospheric composition monitoring 8
    • 9. Summer Seminar• NOAA – JRC Implementing Arrangement• Hurricane Hazards• Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale• Storm Surge• National Hurricane Center’s Products• Stay informed – Make a plan !
    • 10. Hurricane Hazards• Winds• Storm surge• Rainfall and inlandfresh water flooding• Tornadoes WIND RECORD FROM GUSTAV (2008) IN CUBA 10 DANNY (1997) SPAWNS TORNADO IN NORFOLK, VA
    • 11. Hurricane winds can cause tremendous damage to structuresand trees, as shown by Charley’s damage in southwestern Florida 11
    • 12. Wind-blown Debris can Become Deadly Projectiles in a Hurricane 12
    • 13. Storm Surge Hurricane Betsy, 1965, US 1 in the• The greatest potential killer in Florida Keys a tropical cyclone• Abnormal rise in water generated by a storm, over and above the astronomical tide• Temporary rise in sea level that effectively moves the New Orleans levee overtopping in coastline inland Katrina• Caused primarily by force of wind blowing across water surface• Contribution by low pressure within center of storm is 13 minimal Picture by Don McCrosky, Entergy’s Michoud Power Plant Manager
    • 14. Ike’s Damage Bolivar Peninsula, TX Images courtesy USGSBefore 14 After
    • 15. Factors Determining Storm Surge Height at a Given Location• Where the circulation center Isabel (2003) - Baltimore, MD crosses the coast• Storm direction of motion relative to coastline• Strength of the winds (storm intensity)• Radius of maximum winds Ike (2008) - Bolivar Peninsula, TX• Overall size of storm (outer wind radii)• Slope of the continental shelf• Shape of the coastline and other coastal features (examples: barrier islands, 15 bays, rivers, levees)
    • 16. Fresh Water FloodingHurricane Floyd (1999) Tarboro, NC (Reuters) NC DENR• U. S. tropical cyclones haveproduced as much as 43 inches ofrain in 24 hours.• TC rainfall potential depends moston the speed of motion, with slow-moving systems producing the mostrain• Tropical depressions or storms can 16produce more rain than hurricanes!
    • 17. 17Interstate 10, Looking West, Houston, Texas
    • 18. 18Interstate 10, Looking West, Houston, Texas Tropical Storm Allison (2001) Houston Chronicle
    • 19. Summer Seminar• NOAA – JRC Implementing Arrangement• Hurricane Hazards• Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale• Storm Surge• National Hurricane Center’s Products• Stay informed - Make a plan !
    • 20. Herbert Saffir Robert SimpsonWind Engineer Meteorologist
    • 21. First publication of the Saffir-SimpsonHurricane Scale - 1974: Pressure - Winds - Surge - Impacts
    • 22. Revised Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
    • 23. Revised Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
    • 24. Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale  Categorizes hurricanes by wind speed MAJOR HURRICANESTropical Category 1 Category 2 Category 3 Category 4 Category 5 Storm39-73 mph 74-95mph 96-110 mph 111-130 mph 131-155 mph > 155 mph (34-63 kt) (64-82 kt) (83-95 kt) (96-113 kt) (114-135 kt) (> 136 kt) Alberto Katrina Frances Katrina Charley Andrew (2006) (FL - 2005) (2004) (LA - 2005) (2004) (1992) Allison Claudette Isabel Wilma Hugo Camille (2001) (2003) (2003) (FL- 2005) (1989) (1969)
    • 25. Summer Seminar• NOAA – JRC Implementing Arrangement• Hurricane Hazards• Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale• Storm Surge• National Hurricane Center’s Products• FEMA - Have a plan !
    • 26. HURRICANE LANDFALL AND STORM SURGETop view of Sea Surface and Land Side view of Cross Section “ABC” Wind Sand Dunes Wind A B C on Barrier Island STORM SURGE Eye MSL 0’ A 5O’ B Current C 100’ 150’ 200’ Mainland Barrier Island Continental Shelf
    • 27. The NWS Storm Surge Program • Total Water Level Guidance: produce water level analyses, forecasts, and observations that include all contributions to surge • Surge, tides, waves, fresh water, background anomaly • Inundation Products: provide information about the water depth over the land (inundation) above ground level (AGL) • Communicating Actionable Information: provide information that people can act on • Transition from Deterministic approaches to ensemble/probabilistic approaches
    • 28. First GenerationInundation Graphic
    • 29. Actionable Information• NWS has assembled teams to investigate a collaborative watch/warning CONOPs for storm surge and begin prototyping ideas for implementation – HFIP Social Science contract established to investigate user requirements/preferences – Initial ideas tested informally during Irene – NHC/WFOs testing collaborative W/W concepts
    • 30. Summer Seminar• NOAA – JRC Implementing Arrangement• Hurricane Hazards• Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale• Storm Surge• The National Hurricane Center’s Products• Stay informed - Have a plan !
    • 31. National Weather Service hurricane forecast and warning products are like a mosaic… The National Hurricane Center paints the “big picture”... and the local Weather Forecast Offices tell the local story
    • 32. Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook  mimics the text TWO  issued at same time as text TWOHigh > 50% (20%)Medium 30 – 50%Low < 30% (40%) (70%)
    • 33. Public AdvisoryAtlantic 500 am 1100 am 500 pm 1100 pm EDT Plain-language text product originally intended for “rip and read” Headline or lead statement Summary information Watches and warnings Center location, motion, forecast Wind speed and forecast Hazards: Wind / Storm surge / Rainfall / Tornadoes / Waves and Rip Currents Recommended actions
    • 34. • Tropical Storm/Hurricane Watch: An announcement that hurricane conditions are possible within the specified area. Watches are issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.• Tropical Storm/Hurricane Warning: An announcement that hurricane conditions are expected within the specified area. Warnings are issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds. 36
    • 35. New Public Advisory Format Section headers added Storm information first Changes to watches and warnings in the current advisory are highlighted Bulleted summary of all watches and warnings in effect
    • 36. New Public Advisory Format Section headers Discussion of forecast motion and intensity and other pertinent information Storm hazards and impacts, shown by type
    • 37. Forecast / AdvisoryAtlantic 500 am 1100 am 500 pm 1100 pm EDT Only source of all the forecast data Data is used in HURREVAC and other commercial tracking software Watches and warnings Center location, motion, minimum pressure and eye diameter Forecast positions, intensity and wind radii
    • 38. Surface Wind Field Shows: Wind field Past track Current watches/ warnings
    • 39. Cumulative Wind History
    • 40. Track Forecast Cone 5-day cone 3-day cone
    • 41. NHC Forecast Cone• Represents the probable track of the center of the tropical cyclone.• Formed by connecting circles centered on each forecast point (at 12, 24, 36 h, etc.)• Size of the circles determined so that, say, the actual storm position at 48 h will be within the 48-h circle 67% of the time.
    • 42. Cone Radii in the Era of 5-Day Forecasts Atlantic East Pacific 2003 Circle 2011 Circle 2003 Circle 2011 CircleForecas Radius (n Radius (n Forecas Radius (n Radius (n Percent Percentt Period mi) mi) t Period mi) mi) Change Reduction (h) (‘98 – ’02 (‘06 – ’10 (h) (‘98 – ’02 (‘06 – ’10 errors) errors) errors) errors) 12 49 36 -27% 12 43 33 -23% 24 85 59 -31% 24 75 59 -21% 36 121 79 -35% 36 108 79 -27% 48 164 98 -40% 48 131 98 -25% 72 232 144 -38% 72 190 134 -29% 96 318 190 -40% 96 230 187 -19% 120 439 239 -46% 120 252 230 -9% 08:53 PM
    • 43. 08:53 PM CM h Ct arll o e hi e bo N ur Ci nce tso ty ow ne te , ag , F Yo SC uk Lt re ,V o A
    • 44. 08:53 PM
    • 45. Cone versusSize & Impact The Cone DOES NOT denote area of impact….
    • 46. Cone versusSize & Impact …as Ike’s hurricane force winds demonstrat e
    • 47. DiscussionAtlantic 500 am 1100 am 500 pm 1100 pm EDT Free-form text product Provides the reasoning behind forecasts and warnings Discussion of relevant observations, model guidance, and the forecast uncertainties Includes table of track and intensity forecasts
    • 48. Surface Wind Speed Probabilities Maximum 1-minute Wind Speed Probability
    • 49. Storm Surge Probabilities  available in 1-ft increments from 2 to 25 ft  run when a Hurricane Watch or Warning is in effect Chance of surge > 2 ft Chance of surge > 10 ft Stay tuned for more from Jamie…
    • 50. Storm Surge Exceedance ProductAvailable in 10% increments from 10% to 90%http://www.weather.gov/mdl/psurge/active.php
    • 51. All products can be found on the website of The National Hurricane Center:http://www.hurricanes.gov
    • 52. Summer Seminar• NOAA – JRC Implementing Arrangement• Hurricane Hazards• Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale• Storm Surge• The National Hurricane Center’s Products• Stay informed - Have a plan !
    • 53. Hurricane Liaison TeamHLT Background • Initial idea arose in early 1990’s • Successfully proven during response to the 1995 Hurricane Season • Became formal in 1996 by FEMA Director upon Andy Newman request of Governor of Former National Hurricane Center Director Max Florida and Director of Mayfield discusses where to issue watches and warnings along the west coast of Florida for Hurricane National Hurricane Center Charley.
    • 54. Hurricane Liaison Team DHS NOCCommunication Flowchart FEMA NRCCNationalHurricane FEMA RRCC HLTCenter HLT State EOCs Hu Ho rric tli an ne e Local Local EOCs NWSFOs
    • 55. Hurricane Liaison TeamResponsibilities • Facilitate video and audio conference briefings to Federal and State agencies • Direct issues of importance to the NHC Hurricane Specialists Former National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read briefing President Barack Obama on Hurricane Irene • Field and refer Saturday, August 27, 2011. emergency management calls to appropriate state or other offices
    • 56. Hurricane Preparedness Week End of May each year7 informative videos can be found at :http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/Day 1: The Hurricane Season – Bill Read, NHCDay 2: Storm Surge – Robbie Berg, NHCDay 3: Wind Effects Including Tornadoes – Robert Molleda, WFO MiamiDay 4: Inland Flooding – Dan Gregoria, WFO MiamiDay 5: The “Full Team Effort” – Dan Brown, NHCDay 6: Get a Plan – Craig Fugate, FEMADay 7: What to Do: Before/During/After – Bill Read, NHC 08:53 PM
    • 57. Facebookhttp://www.facebook.com/US.NOAA.NationalHurricaneCenter.gov
    • 58. Stay informed !• NHC website – www.hurricanes.gov• Local NWS Weather Forecast Office in Sterling close to the Dulles Airport: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/lwx/
    • 59. Make a plan !• U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) – www.ready.gov• For Embassies :OFMs Disaster Preparedness Seminar Presentations: http://www.state.gov/ofm/emergency/c50508.htm -OFM Disaster Response by Bruce Matthews, OFMs Managing Director -Emergency Preparedness and the Fire Code by the DC Fire and EMC Department -Disasters! How Prepared are YOU? by DepaRtments Diplomatic Security Protective Liaison Division -Preparedness in the District of Columbia by DC Homeland Security and Emergency Management Agency -Providing Assistance to the United States after a Disaster by FEMA 61
    • 60. This presentation was made from slides provided by James Franklin, Branch Chief of the Hurricane Specialist Unit of the National Hurricane Center. 62