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Landscape Level Hydrological Modeling and Farm Scale Modeling in the Volta River Basin
Landscape Level Hydrological Modeling and Farm Scale Modeling in the Volta River Basin
Landscape Level Hydrological Modeling and Farm Scale Modeling in the Volta River Basin
Landscape Level Hydrological Modeling and Farm Scale Modeling in the Volta River Basin
Landscape Level Hydrological Modeling and Farm Scale Modeling in the Volta River Basin
Landscape Level Hydrological Modeling and Farm Scale Modeling in the Volta River Basin
Landscape Level Hydrological Modeling and Farm Scale Modeling in the Volta River Basin
Landscape Level Hydrological Modeling and Farm Scale Modeling in the Volta River Basin
Landscape Level Hydrological Modeling and Farm Scale Modeling in the Volta River Basin
Landscape Level Hydrological Modeling and Farm Scale Modeling in the Volta River Basin
Landscape Level Hydrological Modeling and Farm Scale Modeling in the Volta River Basin
Landscape Level Hydrological Modeling and Farm Scale Modeling in the Volta River Basin
Landscape Level Hydrological Modeling and Farm Scale Modeling in the Volta River Basin
Landscape Level Hydrological Modeling and Farm Scale Modeling in the Volta River Basin
Landscape Level Hydrological Modeling and Farm Scale Modeling in the Volta River Basin
Landscape Level Hydrological Modeling and Farm Scale Modeling in the Volta River Basin
Landscape Level Hydrological Modeling and Farm Scale Modeling in the Volta River Basin
Landscape Level Hydrological Modeling and Farm Scale Modeling in the Volta River Basin
Landscape Level Hydrological Modeling and Farm Scale Modeling in the Volta River Basin
Landscape Level Hydrological Modeling and Farm Scale Modeling in the Volta River Basin
Landscape Level Hydrological Modeling and Farm Scale Modeling in the Volta River Basin
Landscape Level Hydrological Modeling and Farm Scale Modeling in the Volta River Basin
Landscape Level Hydrological Modeling and Farm Scale Modeling in the Volta River Basin
Landscape Level Hydrological Modeling and Farm Scale Modeling in the Volta River Basin
Landscape Level Hydrological Modeling and Farm Scale Modeling in the Volta River Basin
Landscape Level Hydrological Modeling and Farm Scale Modeling in the Volta River Basin
Landscape Level Hydrological Modeling and Farm Scale Modeling in the Volta River Basin
Landscape Level Hydrological Modeling and Farm Scale Modeling in the Volta River Basin
Landscape Level Hydrological Modeling and Farm Scale Modeling in the Volta River Basin
Landscape Level Hydrological Modeling and Farm Scale Modeling in the Volta River Basin
Landscape Level Hydrological Modeling and Farm Scale Modeling in the Volta River Basin
Landscape Level Hydrological Modeling and Farm Scale Modeling in the Volta River Basin
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Landscape Level Hydrological Modeling and Farm Scale Modeling in the Volta River Basin

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Study Objectives: …

Study Objectives:
Modeling hydrological dynamics to quantify water fluxes for achieving optimal crop-livestock productivity

- Assess sub-basin scale water balance thresholds at target sites
- Develop water allocations framework in target sites
- Recommend best-fit integrated rainwater management strategies that maximize productivity

Published in: Technology, Business
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  • 1. Landscape level hydrological modeling & Farm-scale modeling Fred Kizito, Katrien Descheemaeker, Sabine Douxchamps 3 / 7 / 2012
  • 2. Landscape level hydrological modeling Fred Kizito, Katrien Descheemaeker, Sabine Douxchamps 3 / 7 / 2012
  • 3. Study objectives Modeling hydrological dynamics to quantify water fluxes for achieving optimal crop-livestock productivity o Assess sub-basin scale water balance thresholds at target sites o Develop water allocations framework in target sites o Recommend best-fit integrated rainwater management strategies that maximize productivity Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  • 4. Study sites  Landscape hydrological modeling: o Conduct sub-basin water balance thresholds o Develop a water allocations framework in target sites o Assess water productivity in specific crop-livestock systems Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  • 5. Methods • Baseline characterization has been conducted in target sites at the household level • Tools: and • SWAT hydrological modeling is physically based – Weather, soil properties, topography, vegetation, and land management practices data sets • DEM: – Used at 90 m resolution – Watershed delineation; Stream network Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  • 6. Crop water use trends in Golinga Data Source: Ministry of Food and Agriculture, Ghana Production estimates and Regional Crop Acreage data for 1992 to 2010 - Complemented and verified with V2 Household survey data Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta 6
  • 7. Water, crops and livestock distribution for Golinga Source: Ramankutty et al, 2000 Processed from Global Croplands database; Complemented with Ghana MoFA Data and V2 Household data Source: Processed from FAO Geo-portal data -Not checked against V2 HH data Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta 7
  • 8. Water Balance Components for Golinga 1200 Calibration Validation 800 600 400 200 0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Rainfall (mm) and Discharge (mm) 1000 Simulated Warm-up Rainfall (mm) Surface Water Discharge (mm) Percolation (mm) Groundwater Discharge (mm) Evapotranspiration (mm) Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta 8
  • 9. Conclusion Milestones: • Cropping density and livestock distribution ascertained for all study sites; Water balance thresholds calculated for all study sites • Currently developing crop-livestock water productivity maps for all target sites • Landscape outputs from water allocations and water balance will complement farm-level flows analysis Conclusion • Hydrological analysis indicated that reservoirs play a critical role in maintaining storage and reducing surface runoff losses at subbasin scale Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  • 10. Farm-scale modeling Fred Kizito, Katrien Descheemaeker, Sabine Douxchamps 3 / 7 / 2012
  • 11. Objectives Identify and evaluate promising interventions for improved farm productivity • • • • • • • Extrapolating field results in space and time Aggregate field level outputs to farm level Scenario analysis: exploring options Risk analysis Tradeoff analysis (tradeoffs in resource allocation) Identifying issues for further (field) research Discussion and decision support tool: informing the innovation platform Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  • 12. NPK NPK NPK Giller et al. 2010 Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta Options
  • 13. NUANCES-FARMSIM: farm-scale modeling approach Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta Tittonell et al. (2007) Fld Crops Res. 100, 348-368; Rufino et al. (2007) Livestock Sci. 112, 273-287; Chikowo et al. (2008) Ag. Syst. 97, 151-166; Tittonell et al. (2009) Ag. Syst. 101, 1-19; van Wijk et al. (2009) Ag. Syst. 102, 89-101; Tittonell et al. (2010) E. J Agron. 32, 10-21.
  • 14. APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator) Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  • 15. Constraint analysis Example of feedbase in villages around Golinga reservoir In-house feeding Grazing Feed gap Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  • 16. Scenario Analysis Baseline situation • 1.5 ha farm • household of 8 people • crops: millet, sorghum and cowpea intercropped • no crop residue stored for cattle • 3 breeding cows, sells at 4-5 years, herd of 8-10 Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta Adapted from McDonald (2010)
  • 17. Scenario Analysis Baseline Animals sold (10y) 5-6 Animals on hand 12-13 Forage deficit 7000 Wet season labour +50 Cattle revenue 34000 Gross Margin* 515000 Cash balance -3000 * - including home consumption Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta Adapted from McDonald (2010)
  • 18. Scenario Analysis Baseline Animals sold (10y) Manure (4 t/ha) 5-6 6-7 Animals on hand 12-13 13 Forage deficit 7000 6000 Wet season labour +50 +20 Cattle revenue 34000 37000 Gross Margin 515000 637000 Cash balance -3000 109000 Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta Adapted from McDonald (2010)
  • 19. Scenario Analysis Baseline Animals sold (10y) Manure (4 t/ha) Crop residue harvesting 5-6 6-7 7-8 Animals on hand 12-13 13 13 Forage deficit 7000 6000 3000 Wet season labour +50 +20 +10 Cattle revenue 34000 37000 41000 Gross Margin 515000 637000 671000 Cash balance -3000 109000 140000 Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta Adapted from McDonald (2010)
  • 20. Scenario Analysis Baseline Calves sold (10y) Manure (4 t/ha) Crop residue harvesting Sell cow, buy 10 sheep & fatten 5-6 6-7 7-8 6-7 Cattle on hand 12-13 13 13 9-10 Forage deficit 7000 6000 3000 4400 Wet season labour +50 +20 +10 +50 Livestock revenue 34000 37000 41000 96000 Gross Margin 515000 637000 671000 739000 Cash balance -3000 109000 140000 205000 Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta Adapted from McDonald (2010)
  • 21. Scenario Analysis Discussion support tool  Learning tool Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta Adapted from McDonald (2010)
  • 22. Simulation experiment Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  • 23. Simulation experiment Lessons: - Fertilizer increases average yield, but also production risk - Information on risk is useful for insurance providers (partner in the IPs?) Andes • - Water and Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • are interlinked nutrient use efficiency Volta
  • 24. Tradeoff analysis Understanding resource allocation decisions Resources are finite; directing them to one objective will penalize other objectives • • • Labor: weeding vs. marketing produce Cash: fertilizers vs. hiring labor for weeding Crop residues: soil organic matter vs. livestock feeding Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  • 25. concentrates Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta fertilizer Tradeoff analysis
  • 26. concentrates Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta fertilizer Tradeoff analysis
  • 27. concentrates Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta fertilizer Tradeoff analysis
  • 28. concentrates Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta fertilizer Tradeoff analysis
  • 29. concentrates Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta fertilizer Tradeoff analysis
  • 30. concentrates fertilizer Tradeoff analysis Lessons: - Tradeoff analysis helps us in systems understanding - LinkedAndes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekongsocio-institutional settings (e.g. market) and farmers’ with understanding of • Nile • Volta objectives, this can be used to design well-adapted interventions
  • 31. Conclusions Farm systems models are useful tools for research to - Understand complex farm dynamics, including farmer decision making - Identify topics for further (field) research for development through - Assisting in the development of adapted interventions - Generation of information for discussion support (in IPs) ! Need for high quality input data Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  • 32. Merci pour votre attention! Thanks for your attention! Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta

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