S(2)Maize in Asia: Trends, Challenges and Opportunities
Maize in Asia: Trends,Challenges and Opportunities BM Prasanna Director, Global Maize Program CIMMYT, Int. Email: firstname.lastname@example.org
Maize in the Developing World• About 73 per cent of 153 million ha of maize area worldwide in 2010 was located in the developing world.• Together with rice and wheat, maize provides at least 30% of the food calories to more than 4.5 billion people in 94 developing countries.• Preferred staple food to 900 million poor people (< 2 USD per day)
Maize in AsiaCountries <3 t/ha Countries >3 t/ha Area Production Yield Area Production YieldCountry Country (mha) (mmt) (t/ha) (mha) (mmt) (t/ha)India 8.50 21.00 2.47 China 31.50 168.00 5.33Indonesia 3.15 8.40 2.67 Vietnam 1.20 5.50 4.58Philippines 2.65 6.80 2.57 Thailand 0.97 3.90 4.02Pakistan 1.05 3.00 2.86 Laos 0.31 1.55 5.00Nepal 0.85 1.70 2.00 Cambodia 0.18 0.70 3.89Bhutan 0.04 0.07 1.56 Turkey 0.49 4.00 8.15Afghanistan 0.15 0.30 2.00 USA 32.89 318.52 9.69 Developing 111.70 405.93 3.63 World 152.51 765.47 5.02 Source: USDA (Dec 2010)Eight major maize-producing countries in Asia – China, India, Indonesia,Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam –together, nowproduce 98% of Asia’s maize and 26% of global maize.
Maize becomes No.1 crop in China since 2007 Chinese maize belt Each dot equals 50,000 ha Source: National Bureau of Statistics, 2010
The ever increasing demand• During 2003-08, maize production increased annually by 6.0% in Asia, as compared to 5.0% in Latin America, and 2.3% in sub-Saharan Africa.Between now and 2050, thedemand for maize in the Maize consumption in Chinadeveloping world will double,and by 2025 maize will havebecome the crop with the highestproduction in the developingworld (~490-500 mmt)!
Drivers for maize demand in AsiaMaize use for feed in the seven major Asian countries (China,India, Indonesia, Nepal, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam)has more than tripled from 29 m t in 1980 to 109 m t in 2000!
Impressive progress in India, but not quite enough!Source: Dr Sain Dass
Poultry production in India 2002 2009 (in millions)Broiler 1250 2000Layer 155 290Broiler breeder 9.25 15.9Layer breeder 1.6 3.2 Egg production Broiler production 2600 2350 2400 2150 2200 2001 1950 2002 1995 2000 2003 2000 1750 1800 2005 2004 1550 2005 1600 2006 1350 1400 1200 1150 8.3 % growth 2.65 m t 8.5 % growth 2.4 m t
Volatility of Maize PricesMaize imports for developing countryeconomies will increase 24% by 2050 –equalling USD 30 billion.
Food security is at risk due to climate change....In order to meetglobal demands, we will need 60-70% more food by 2050.
Drought => large annual yield fluctuations inboth sub-Saharan Africa and Asia 6.00 5.00Grain yield (t ha ) 4.00-1 3.00 2.00 1.00 Maize Rice Wheat 0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 YearAlleviating the effects of drought alone could increase average maizeyields by 35% across “Asia-7” (excluding China), and by 28% in SouthwestChina (Gerpacio and Pingali, 2007).
Mycotoxin contamination A serious problem in many maize-growing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America, affecting long-term health of humans and animals, trade and export markets. Kenya Malawi Nigeria Uganda Ghana Indonesia Nepal MexicoProduction 2,367,237 3,444,655 7,525,000 1,266,000 1,100,00 17,659,067 1,878,648 24,320,100(M tons)Grain loss (%) 20-25 20-25 5-10 20-25 5-10 6-17 4-22 10-25Mycotoxin 25-30% 9% above 27% 30% above 65-80%; 47%; 50-83%; 20-89%;incidence (%) above 20 20 ppb 20 ppb; 50% 30-2000 >50 ppb >50 ppb >20 ppb ppb aflatoxin up to 10 ppb ppb aflatoxin aflatoxin aflatoxin aflatoxin aflatoxin
Sustainability Concerns• Water: Lowering water tables and reduced availability of water for agricultural purposes• Nutrient depletion: Nepal, NE India, Myanmar, NE Thailand….• Soil erosion: S China, SE Asia• Deforestation: SE Asia• Increasing fertilizer costs, fertilizer scarcity
An era of challenges will always bean era of uncommon opportunities!!
Drought Tolerant Maize Varieties for Africa53 Drought tolerant maize varieties developed under DTMAby CIMMYT & IITA in partnership with 13 African countries,occupying nearly 2 million hectares.
CIMMYT DT Maize Lines suitable for South & SE AsiaElite DT lines from CIMMYT-Mexico,Zimbabwe & Kenya evaluated for droughttoleranceLines from CIMMYT DT-populations,adapted to the tropical Asian region:• Early maturity – Yellow (Pool 18 Seq)• Early maturity – white (Pool 16 BN Seq)• Medium maturity – Yellow (DTPY c9)• Medium maturity – white (DTPW c9)• Late maturity – Yellow (Pool 26 Seq)• Late maturity – White (LP C7& TS c5)PH Zaidi & team, CIMMYT-India
Emphasis on heat tolerance of elite productsCombined heat and drought donorsDTMA Pedigree GY (t ha-1) 91 CML311/MBR C3 Bc F12-2-2-2 0.63 238 DTPYC9-F46-1-2-1-2 0.59 . La Posta Seq C7-F64-2-6-2-2 0.55 62 CML435 0.49 231 DTPYC9-F143-5-4-1-2 0.46 44 CML442 0.19 Trial mean 0.24Drought tolerance ≠ heat tolerance ≠ Drought + heat tolerance
Philippines takes lead in approving / commercializingBt maize and Glyphosate tolerant maizeIn Philippines, about 200,000 small farmers planted 350,000hectares (ha) of Bt maize farms in 2008, as compared to the10,769 ha in 2003, when the crop was approved forcommercialization. (ISAAA)
Improved maize germplasm from CIMMYT-Colombia, Mexico andZimbabwe helps hill maize farmers in Nepal and Bhutan…Non-QPM Variety (ICAV305) Yellow QPM varietyOn-farm trials of two GLS-resistant maize varieties in the hills of Bhutan,along with local check Yangtsipa
Fine mapping and developing breeder- ready markers for some major maize diseases Sliding windows-chromosome 2Maize Streak Virus 6e-04 5e-04 4e-04 Var 3e-04 2e-04 1e-04 Turcicum Leaf 0e+00 Blight 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Marker Gray Leaf Spot
Nutritionally enriched maize in Asia Poshilo Makai-1 Yunrui-1 (QPM + GLS resistance) Yunrui-8 (QPM + high oil)HQPM-1 (parents derived using QPM version of Vivek Hybrid- CML161 and CML163) 9 (using CML as donors)
MAS in breeding for Provitamin A enriched maize Deep orange ears + + MAS for LycE MAS for CrtRB1 Increase in β-carotene from 1-2 ppm to >10 ppm
Science (20 Nov 2009) Palomero genome about 22% (140 Mb) smaller than that of B73. Large number of unreported sequences => large pool of unexplored genetic diversity
Next-generation sequencing and HT genotyping454/FLX Genotyping-by-Sequencing • GBS developed at Cornell – data for 500,000 SNPs AB SOLiDTM and indels for $30 per sample at 96-plex sequencing (low depth, high coverage). • Buckler lab is successfully implementing 384-plexSolexa sequencing, which should reduce run costs to <$15/sample. • GBS cheaper than yield testing at one location!
Genomic Selection● Proposed by Meuwissen et al. (2001)● Complete coverage of genome with markers – high density genotyping● All QTL in linkage disequilibrium with at least one marker● No QTL size thresholds needed● No concerns of missing heritability and Beavis effect
DH technology for accelerated maize breedingDH line development with in vivohaploid induction approachDonor Inducer Induction of haploidyHaploidplants Artificial chromosome doublingDoubledhaploidplantsCoupling DH development with MAS for key traits can greatlyenhance breeding efficiency.
Tropically adapted haploid inducers New tropical Inducer lines Induction rate ~10% Temperate inducerGeorge Mahuku and Team at CIMMYT-Mexico, in collaboration with Univ. of Hohenheim
Phenotypic capabilities are evolving! Development of a new generation of automated / semi- automated technologies to monitor plant characteristics and performance
Precision phenotyping • Advances in phenotyping should not be construed only from the viewpoint of instrumentation. • Characterizing field sites, experimental designs, selection of appropriate traits, and statistical methodologies, all have an equally important role to play in phenotypic data collection and utilization.
Seeds of Discovery (SeeD), a project funded by Mexico for the benefit of the World Maize Community Breeding Gene Bank Introgression Programs Web Portal Pipeline Trait values Environ- Common mental backgrounds adaptation Genetic Cultivars makeup Breeding Accessions Information Parental stocks materials Generating high quality phenotypic data of genetically heterogeneous populations Genotyping/resequencing using next-generation sequencers Identifying favorable alleles/haplotypes for developing improved germplasm with a broader genetic base
Conservation agriculture and enablingpolicies have to complement geneticenhancement• Improving system productivity• Nutrient cycling• Site specific nutrient management• Increased fertilizer, water and fuel use efficiencies CSISA SIMLESA
Precision agriculture for smallholders possible…. Farmer in Gujarat accessing the web (IBM India, 2010)