My PhD research: modeling multiple ignition scenarios for assessment of firefighting strategies

1. Modeling Multiple Ignition Scenarios for Assessment of
Firefighting Strategies
Yonatan Shaham, PhD candidate
Supervisor: Itzhak Benenson
Porter School for Environmental Studies
GeoSimulation and Spatial Analysis
Tel Aviv University

2. Motivation
• Multiple ignition scenarios pose
a great threat to cities as
firefighters are outnumbered by
simultaneous fires:
• Multiple ignition scenarios
include: fires following
earthquake, fires cased by wars
and rocket lunching, industrial
catastrophes and severe wild-fires
• Simultaneous fires cause
systemic effects and Firefighters
are outnumbered
City Firefighters' Response model (CIFER) | Yonatan Shaham, PhD candidate | Supervisor: Itzhak Benenson
Porter School for Environmental Studies, GeoSimulation and Spatial Analysis | Tel Aviv University

3. The meaning of space
• Fire ignition is dependent on
the presence of people which
is characterized by tempo-
spatial patterns
• Fire spread is dependent on:
• The spatial distribution of fuel
• The spatial configuration of
constructions
• The spatial relations of constructions
and vegetation
• Meteorological conditions
• Firefighting is dependent on:
• Fire spread
• Accessibility – road network,
congestion, city structure
Spatially-explicit agent-based simulation of firefighting
activity: Firefighters facing burning room and impinging
flames (model prototype)
City Firefighters' Response model (CIFER) | Yonatan Shaham, PhD candidate | Supervisor: Itzhak Benenson
Porter School for Environmental Studies, GeoSimulation and Spatial Analysis | Tel Aviv University

4. CIFER: Research Goals
• To understand the dynamics of multiple-ignition scenarios
with respect to the spatial properties of the Israeli city
• To evaluate exiting firefighting strategies in multiple-ignition
scenarios with respect to the spatial properties of the Israeli
city
• To identify and evaluate novel firefighting strategies in
multiple-ignition scenarios with respect to the spatial
properties of the Israeli city
City Firefighters' Response model (CIFER) | Yonatan Shaham, PhD candidate | Supervisor: Itzhak Benenson
Porter School for Environmental Studies, GeoSimulation and Spatial Analysis | Tel Aviv University

5. Agent-based models and the
bounded rationality of firefighters
• People are very poor optimizers and do tackle problems by using
heuristics and rule-based algorithms.
• This is true also and even more prominently for firefighters:
• Firefighters' modus operandi is to follow rules and procedures
• Firefighters need to take quick decisions under higher than usual pressure
• Firefighters will face scarce information of poor quality during multiple
ignition scenarios
• Thus, CIFER is an agent-base model which takes firefighters as:
• autonomous agents
• following rules
• while retrieving and exchanging information
• This allows to study self-organization and emergence of system-level
dynamics
• Professional firefighter officers will engage with CIFER in game mode
to explore strategies
City Firefighters' Response model (CIFER) | Yonatan Shaham, PhD candidate | Supervisor: Itzhak Benenson Porter
School for Environmenal Studies, GeoSimulation and Spatial Analysis | Tel Aviv University

6. CIFER: general scheme
City Firefighters' Response model (CIFER) | Yonatan Shaham, PhD candidate | Supervisor: Itzhak Benenson Porter
School for Environmenal Studies, GeoSimulation and Spatial Analysis | Tel Aviv University

7. CIFER: agents and objects
City Firefighters' Response model (CIFER) | Yonatan Shaham, PhD candidate | Supervisor: Itzhak Benenson Porter
School for Environmenal Studies, GeoSimulation and Spatial Analysis | Tel Aviv University

8. Modeling fire spread in
Mediterranean and Middle-East cities
• Model of fire spread in
Mediterranean and
Middle-East cities,
should account for:
• non-flammability of the
majority of constructions
• vegetation that fill inter-
building space
• and is highly flammable
during the long summers
that last up to 8 months
City Firefighters' Response model (CIFER) | Yonatan Shaham, PhD candidate | Supervisor: Itzhak Benenson Porter
School for Environmenal Studies, GeoSimulation and Spatial Analysis | Tel Aviv University
Trees between two apartments buildings acting as a fire spread
accelerator, Tel Aviv, Israel.

9. CIFER base layer: spatially explicit model of
urban fire spread with many ignitions
City Firefighters' Response model (CIFER) | Yonatan Shaham, PhD candidate | Supervisor: Itzhak Benenson
Porter School for Environmental Studies, GeoSimulation and Spatial Analysis | Tel Aviv University

10. CIFER top layer: firefighters’ decision
making - UI for professional firefighter
officers
City Firefighters' Response model (CIFER) | Yonatan Shaham, PhD candidate | Supervisor: Itzhak Benenson Porter
School for Environmenal Studies, GeoSimulation and Spatial Analysis | Tel Aviv University

11. For more information
Yonatan Shaham
yjonas83@gmail.com
City Firefighters' Response model (CIFER) | Yonatan Shaham, PhD candidate | Supervisor: Itzhak Benenson Porter
School for Environmenal Studies, GeoSimulation and Spatial Analysis | Tel Aviv University