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Estimation of software
products user base from
Internet statistics
Marat Valiev, 2015
Overview
- Motivation
- Methods
- First step
- Current results
- Future work
2
Motivation
How to run open source product?
- distributed development community
- classical management doesn’t work on volunteers
- longer communication chain
- multidimensional success criteria
- process optimization is not convex
- discrepancy of interests between
maintainers and contributors community
- maintainers are often volunteers too
3
There is no single answers for centralized
development: CMM, Scrum, DAD, etc.
Intuition: there is no single answers for
distributed development as well
Solution: using data analysis and case studies
come up with set of best practices and
methodology to run most common OSS projects
(hint: Linux kernel is not common case)
Motivation (cont)
4
- Collect data on different aspects of OSS
projects
- Apply best knowledge to find dependencies
with project dynamics
- Map to project environment and goals
Methods
5
First step:
establish metric for user base
(hint: can not be measured directly)
Indirect measurement can be done by using
search engines index and frequency of user
search requests
Google, Yandex, Web trends, Wordstat, N-grams, …
Special case to validate: browsers
(but other reporting software will work too)
Methods - First step
6
There is clear correlation of user search with usage
Methods - Current results
7
There is no correlation with search index
Methods - Current results (cont)
8
- Validate on different Internet segments
- Russian Internet has very specific preferences
- can be identified by language
- Get in touch with OSS projects to get more data
- volunteer contributed
- distributively developed
- relatively large
- without too specific context
Methods - Future work
9

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Presentation for Moscow group

  • 1. Estimation of software products user base from Internet statistics Marat Valiev, 2015
  • 2. Overview - Motivation - Methods - First step - Current results - Future work 2
  • 3. Motivation How to run open source product? - distributed development community - classical management doesn’t work on volunteers - longer communication chain - multidimensional success criteria - process optimization is not convex - discrepancy of interests between maintainers and contributors community - maintainers are often volunteers too 3
  • 4. There is no single answers for centralized development: CMM, Scrum, DAD, etc. Intuition: there is no single answers for distributed development as well Solution: using data analysis and case studies come up with set of best practices and methodology to run most common OSS projects (hint: Linux kernel is not common case) Motivation (cont) 4
  • 5. - Collect data on different aspects of OSS projects - Apply best knowledge to find dependencies with project dynamics - Map to project environment and goals Methods 5
  • 6. First step: establish metric for user base (hint: can not be measured directly) Indirect measurement can be done by using search engines index and frequency of user search requests Google, Yandex, Web trends, Wordstat, N-grams, … Special case to validate: browsers (but other reporting software will work too) Methods - First step 6
  • 7. There is clear correlation of user search with usage Methods - Current results 7
  • 8. There is no correlation with search index Methods - Current results (cont) 8
  • 9. - Validate on different Internet segments - Russian Internet has very specific preferences - can be identified by language - Get in touch with OSS projects to get more data - volunteer contributed - distributively developed - relatively large - without too specific context Methods - Future work 9