A Real Time Online Delphi Decision System, V 2.0: Crisis Management Support during Extreme EventsA module contribution to ...
http://demo.sahanapy.org<br />2<br />How to make better decisions managing disasters<br />
Lithia Springs, Georgia, 2009WICKED PROBLEMS<br />Chaos <br />Time Critical <br />High Stress <br />Information Overload <...
How to organize, manage and prioritize all risk?<br />4<br />
Present Working Environment<br />Internet Access <br />Browser – pc or smart phone <br />Collaboration<br />Collective Int...
Dynamics of Group Membership<br />Not all members have to participate in order for results to be ongoing, real time and re...
Delphi Technique Characteristicsanonymity                   feedback          single group calculation<br />7<br />
Designed System based on Delphi Technique<br />Anonymity<br />Voting is anonymous<br />Item creation is anonymous<br />Ind...
Constructs<br />9<br />
Design Science Research1st Iteration: Campus Threat Assessment Agreement<br />10<br />
Severe Weather Top Threat Central Alabama<br />11<br />
Agreement and Disagreement<br />12<br />
13<br />Design Science Research2ndIteration: Top Excuses Why Students Miss Midterms<br />
Version 2.0: Five Tools Provided<br />Problem Management<br />Add New<br />View Existing<br />Add members<br />Solution Li...
Problem Management Tool<br />15<br />
Solution List Generation Tool<br />16<br />
Item Selection: Muddling Through<br />17<br />
Voting Tool: paired comparisons<br />18<br />
Reasons behind usingPaired Comparisons for Voting<br />High stress<br />Information overload<br />Memory capacity<br />Sle...
Scale of ResultsThurstone’s Law of Comparative Judgment<br />20<br />
Thurstone’s Law of Comparative Judgment<br />Visual interpretation of information reduces information overload, quicker to...
Groups and MembershipRoles<br />22<br />
Using Experts Decreases Uncertainty  <br />23<br />
Need Practitioner’s Input<br />Need Large Groups of Experts to Test System<br />Can this be used during any phase of EM?<b...
Future Modifications <br />25<br /><ul><li> Normalization of Scale
Reduce total number of paired comparisons
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

How to Make Better Decisions Managing Disasters: Delphi Decision Maker - Real Time, Online Collaboration

1,693 views

Published on

This presentation goes along with the paper (also uploaded here) A Real Time Online Delphi Decision System, V 2.0: Crisis Management Support during Extreme Events. This is a free and open source system that is available with the Sahana Disaster Mgmt System - python version http://delphi.sahanafoundation.org/

enjoy! Dr. Connie White

Published in: Technology
  • Be the first to comment

How to Make Better Decisions Managing Disasters: Delphi Decision Maker - Real Time, Online Collaboration

  1. 1. A Real Time Online Delphi Decision System, V 2.0: Crisis Management Support during Extreme EventsA module contribution to <br />1<br />Connie White Murray Turoff Roxanne Hiltz <br />Jacksonville State University New Jersey Institute of Technology <br />Jacksonville, Alabama, USA Newark, New jersey, USA <br />
  2. 2. http://demo.sahanapy.org<br />2<br />How to make better decisions managing disasters<br />
  3. 3. Lithia Springs, Georgia, 2009WICKED PROBLEMS<br />Chaos <br />Time Critical <br />High Stress <br />Information Overload <br />Lack of Resources <br />Lack of Information Situational Assessment Uncertainty <br />Need Feedback <br />Congested Quarters Disorganization <br />Who’s In Charge?<br />3<br />
  4. 4. How to organize, manage and prioritize all risk?<br />4<br />
  5. 5. Present Working Environment<br />Internet Access <br />Browser – pc or smart phone <br />Collaboration<br />Collective Intelligence<br />5<br />
  6. 6. Dynamics of Group Membership<br />Not all members have to participate in order for results to be ongoing, real time and reflected.<br />System can be used by members anytime <br />System can be used from anywhere there is the Internet and a browser- Android phone<br />Moderator can change who is in the group and modify the individual’s privileges.<br />6<br />
  7. 7. Delphi Technique Characteristicsanonymity feedback single group calculation<br />7<br />
  8. 8. Designed System based on Delphi Technique<br />Anonymity<br />Voting is anonymous<br />Item creation is anonymous<br />Individual input results in a single group opinion<br />Users enter opinions as independent ranked list<br />Sub-item selection, muddling through<br />Feedback<br />Scale of results<br />Visual Interpretation of the data – Comparative Judgment yields more precise representation of expert’s opinion and group’s opinion<br />Forum Discussion<br />Interaction between crisis managers<br />Provides more information<br />Exposes and resolves ambiguities<br />Exposes and focuses on true uncertainties for input <br />Reduces information overload<br />8<br />
  9. 9. Constructs<br />9<br />
  10. 10. Design Science Research1st Iteration: Campus Threat Assessment Agreement<br />10<br />
  11. 11. Severe Weather Top Threat Central Alabama<br />11<br />
  12. 12. Agreement and Disagreement<br />12<br />
  13. 13. 13<br />Design Science Research2ndIteration: Top Excuses Why Students Miss Midterms<br />
  14. 14. Version 2.0: Five Tools Provided<br />Problem Management<br />Add New<br />View Existing<br />Add members<br />Solution List <br />Generation <br />Select subgroup of items for consideration<br />Voting<br />Input expert opinion through paired comparison<br />Visual Scale <br />quick interpretation of data providing more information due to distance between alternatives<br />Unique Group Creation<br />4 Roles Supported: moderator, contributor, guest, participant<br />14<br />
  15. 15. Problem Management Tool<br />15<br />
  16. 16. Solution List Generation Tool<br />16<br />
  17. 17. Item Selection: Muddling Through<br />17<br />
  18. 18. Voting Tool: paired comparisons<br />18<br />
  19. 19. Reasons behind usingPaired Comparisons for Voting<br />High stress<br />Information overload<br />Memory capacity<br />Sleep deprivation<br />Paired Comparisons provide a more accurate reflection of the expert’s opinion with > 7 items in current memory.<br />19<br />
  20. 20. Scale of ResultsThurstone’s Law of Comparative Judgment<br />20<br />
  21. 21. Thurstone’s Law of Comparative Judgment<br />Visual interpretation of information reduces information overload, quicker to interpret<br />Better than a priority ranked list of equal intervals in that each solution is in proximity to the other solutions indicating ‘how much more’ one solution is preferred to another by the group.<br />21<br />
  22. 22. Groups and MembershipRoles<br />22<br />
  23. 23. Using Experts Decreases Uncertainty <br />23<br />
  24. 24. Need Practitioner’s Input<br />Need Large Groups of Experts to Test System<br />Can this be used during any phase of EM?<br />Mitigation<br />Preparedness <br />Response<br />Recovery<br />What exercises/problem types should be used to test the system?<br />24<br />
  25. 25. Future Modifications <br />25<br /><ul><li> Normalization of Scale
  26. 26. Reduce total number of paired comparisons
  27. 27. Transitivity
  28. 28. What changes need to be made so that this will work in the real world?
  29. 29. Other suggestions of additional tools needed?</li></li></ul><li>Questions? Comments?<br />Play around with the system at:<br />http://delphi.sahanafoundation.org/<br />For additional help contact: Connie White<br />connie.m.white@gmail.com<br />THANK YOU<br />Special Thanks to the Sahana Foundation<br />In particular: Fran Boon, site mentor <br />Reza Mohammadi, program developer<br />26<br />

×