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Fashion forecasting

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FASHION FORECASTING
2
WHAT IS FASHION FORECASTING ?
Fashion forecasting is the prediction of the trends and styles of apparel and accessories
which are new directions in fashion, that the majority of people would like to buy at a
given time and place. It is anticipating the customers wants & needs by Designers,
Merchandisers & Buyers.
2
3
WHY DO WE NEED TO FORECAST ?
• Fashion – It is the style or styles most popular at a given time. The term
implies 4 components: Style, Acceptance, Taste & Change.
• Because of the above 4 components fashion is cyclic .
• It is impossible to ask consumers what they will want to wear a year or 2
in advance – they would not know themselves.
• Because designers, merchandisers & retailers have to work well ahead of
the season (minimum of 2 seasons) so as to manufacture stocks in time
for the season & to keep the business going they have to learn to
anticipate the customers wants & needs – which in turn is called
forecasting.
4
FASHION FORECASTING INCLUDES FOLLOWING ACTIVITIES :-
• Studying market conditions – how the consumers buying
behavior is influenced by society, economics, technology &
the environment
• Noting the lifestyles of the customers
• Feedback from customers
• Past data analysis
• Observing “street fashion” & what celebrities are wearing
• Keeping up with current events, media, arts & the mood of
the public
• Surveying Fashion publications, catalogs, magazines &
fashion websites
• Evaluating popular designer collections
4
5
TO FORECAST
KNOWING THE
CONSUMER & THE
TARGET MARKET IS
IMPORTANT
6
EACH CUSTOMER IS DIFFERENT!
Knowing your consumer :-
• Demographic details
• Income
• Lifestyle
• Brand preferences
Ad

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Fashion forecasting

  • 2. 2 WHAT IS FASHION FORECASTING ? Fashion forecasting is the prediction of the trends and styles of apparel and accessories which are new directions in fashion, that the majority of people would like to buy at a given time and place. It is anticipating the customers wants & needs by Designers, Merchandisers & Buyers. 2
  • 3. 3 WHY DO WE NEED TO FORECAST ? • Fashion – It is the style or styles most popular at a given time. The term implies 4 components: Style, Acceptance, Taste & Change. • Because of the above 4 components fashion is cyclic . • It is impossible to ask consumers what they will want to wear a year or 2 in advance – they would not know themselves. • Because designers, merchandisers & retailers have to work well ahead of the season (minimum of 2 seasons) so as to manufacture stocks in time for the season & to keep the business going they have to learn to anticipate the customers wants & needs – which in turn is called forecasting.
  • 4. 4 FASHION FORECASTING INCLUDES FOLLOWING ACTIVITIES :- • Studying market conditions – how the consumers buying behavior is influenced by society, economics, technology & the environment • Noting the lifestyles of the customers • Feedback from customers • Past data analysis • Observing “street fashion” & what celebrities are wearing • Keeping up with current events, media, arts & the mood of the public • Surveying Fashion publications, catalogs, magazines & fashion websites • Evaluating popular designer collections 4
  • 5. 5 TO FORECAST KNOWING THE CONSUMER & THE TARGET MARKET IS IMPORTANT
  • 6. 6 EACH CUSTOMER IS DIFFERENT! Knowing your consumer :- • Demographic details • Income • Lifestyle • Brand preferences
  • 7. 7 MARKET RESEARCH To know the Target market, Market Research is required. Manufactures & retailers must constantly research their target market to learn buying habits & preferences It consists of following activities • CONSUMER RESEARCH • SHOPPING • SALES RESEARCH • TREND ANAYLISIS
  • 8. 8 CONSUMER RESEARCH • Manufacturers & Retailers may ask consumers about their buying preferences. • Consumer reactions are complied & tabulated to find preferences for certain garments or accessories, colors or sizes. • This information can be used to create new products to fit specific consumer tastes.
  • 9. CONSUMER RESEARCH Can be done in various ways : • Buyers & sales associates may talk with customers in the store or with store staff. • Manufacturers or retailers may hire market research companies for surveys by phone or mail to make inquiries & to hold consumer focus group meetings. • Consumer focus groups are meetings of target customers usually selected by a market research firm to meet with manufacturers or retailers. These groups discuss the pros & cons of merchandise or other aspects of shopping satisfaction. • Forming a Loyalty Club & getting feedback through mails from the customers • From the dealers or retailers selling those products • Analyzing the customer complaints or garments returned
  • 10. 10 SHOPPING • To study what consumers want & need, designers & merchandisers also “shop” in retail stores to see what merchandise is selling best. • Designers & merchandisers compare the styling, price, fit & quality of lines that compete with their own range. • It also helps in Trend spotting . There are 2 methods of shopping: • Directional Shopping • Comparison shopping
  • 11. DIRECTIONAL SHOPPING • Directional Shopping - trips to gain inspiration for design concepts for a new season. • Buying team visits stores stocking merchandise following different trends. • Depending on the product type & the company’s travel budget, designers & buying teams visit major fashion cities.
  • 12. DIRECTIONAL SHOPPING • Stores of most influential designers & retailers, usually in a higher price bracket than the market they design for are visited. • They may also visit mass market stores which are aimed at a younger market & or are more expensive than their own range. • Basically the buying team makes notes on shapes, details, colors & fabrics for reference • After this entire exercise a picture can be formed of the key trends which are coming through.
  • 13. DIRECTIONAL SHOPPING • They return with “bought samples” (notes, sketches & garments) for inspiration. • Some times buying teams are given a budget to buy garments during directional shopping trips. • London, Paris & New York are destinations popular with designers for most product types & market levels. • Milan is often visited by lingerie designers. • Children's wear designers may find more inspiration in Tokyo.
  • 14. DIRECTIONAL SHOPPING • A directional shopping trip to New York usually includes visits to Macy’s, Bloomingdales & Henri Bendel in Manhattan.
  • 15. COMPARATIVE SHOPPING • Comparative Shopping is often referred to as “Comp Shop”. • It refers to apparel associates study to of rival products sold in retail stores. • Usually undertaken several times each season by the buying/design teams. • Involves observing the current merchandise in the stores of competitors which sell comparable ranges (similar product types & prices).
  • 16. COMPARATIVE SHOPPING • The aim of Comparative Shopping is not to copy competing retailers’ products. • It is conducted to be aware of the choice of merchandise on offer to target customer to ensure that the company offers consumer value for money & is aware of developments.
  • 17. COMPARATIVE SHOPPING • Report - sketches & a grid with descriptions of products compared with prices, fabrics & colours of similar merchandise from competing stores. • This report concludes by analyzing how competitors’ ranges compare with each other & noting any important trends or styles which are missing from the company’s range.
  • 18. 18 SALES RESEARCH – PAST DATA ANAYLISIS • Every manufacturer & retailer researches their own sales records. • Rising sales statistics show what fashion trends are developing • Declining sales show what styles have passed their peak. • Overall weak sales show that a style is not meeting consumer needs for fashion, quantity or fit. • By careful monitoring sales records, retailers and merchandisers can see trends.
  • 19. 19 PAST DATA ANAYLISIS • Each style before going in production is allocated a Style number for easy tracking • Tracking the sell through of each style number category wise based on the shelf life • Collecting the best & the worst performers • Analyzing reasons for the same • Collecting similar data for colors to arrive at the color palette for the season
  • 20. 20 OBSERVING TRENDS • Identifying the product category & its competitors • What is their most sought after product/style? • Observing the styles, colors or trends widely used • Identifying its specialty • Traveling for International Fairs & Trade Shows • Visiting retail outlets • Compiling the Data & styles
  • 21. 21 TREND ANAYLISIS • FASHION TREND – Fashion trend are the styling ideas that major collections have in common. They indicate the direction in which fashion is moving. The trend may appear in a new or unique fabrication, silhouette, or other design elements that appears in multiple collections. New trend appears in small doses until it spreads to other collections. Designers for mainstream manufacturers analyze the collections to understand trend • TREND FOR TARGET MARKET – Diverse consumer age segments & lifestyle create many separate market niches, each with its own trends. With today's segmented market a trend may be confined to a single market niche. Designers & merchandisers should be able to decide which trend is best suited for their consumer group.
  • 22. TIME AND ACTION CALENDAR It is designed to control the key events needed to get the • right apparel products, • in the right mix, • at the right price • to the right customer • at the right time. 22
  • 23. A PLANNING TOOL It is the central mechanism from which all marketing schedules and all merchandising and manufacturing plans evolve. 12/9/2016 23
  • 24. A PLANNING TOOL It is the clock that drives merchandising product development schedules, manufacturing planning and shipping schedules. 12/9/2016 24
  • 25. A PLANNING TOOL It sets forth the starting and completion dates for all critical events necessary to achieve a successful season. 12/9/2016 25
  • 26. A PLANNING TOOL The calendar includes the target dates for each event such as pre production garment approval, lab dip approval, pattern approvals and when graded sates of pattern should be sent out. 12/9/2016 26
  • 27. A Planning Tool The calendar includes information about the name of the buyer, season, style, wash and quantity. 12/9/2016 27
  • 28. KEY ELEMENTS • Line preview dates by season. • Line release dates by season. • Start ship date • End ship date • Weekly sales plan • Weekly shipping plans 12/9/2016 28
  • 29. LINE PREVIEW DATE It is the merchandiser’s deadline for having all prototypes and pricing for a new product line completed. 12/9/2016 29
  • 30. Line Preview Date Merchandisers work back from this date to create their product development plans. It is the date of seasonal sales meeting where the merchandising team presents the line to the sales force. 12/9/2016 30
  • 31. LINE RELEASE DATE It is the merchandisers deadline for having all sales samples ready for the sales team to begin presenting the new line to the customers. 12/9/2016 31
  • 32. LINE RELEASE DATE This deadline is crucial to the success of the sales effort, since most sales representative schedule their earliest appointments with their most important customers. 12/9/2016 32
  • 33. Weekly Sales Plan ► It measures the effectiveness of a product line for the merchandising department. ► A graphic analysis of this plan can project increase or decrease in overall sales for a season. 12/9/2016 33
  • 34. Weekly Shipping Plan It shows season to date as well as shipping statistics for a specific week or monthly time period. It helps to determine whether or not the product mixes being delivered to distribution meet the ship ability. 12/9/2016 34
  • 35. DETERMINATION OF LEAD TIME CPM is used. •It is the key to a successful merchandising calendar. It determines the critical functions necessary to perform an activity or series of activities required to achieve an overall objective. 12/9/2016 35
  • 36. DETERMINATION OF LEAD TIME After the critical functions are selected, each one must be analyzed to determine the time required to accomplish it. A typical merchandising calendar may have 25 to 50 functions for a product line. 12/9/2016 36
  • 37. CRITICAL PATH METHOD It defines critical and non-critical tasks with the goal of preventing time-frame problems and process bottlenecks. The length of the critical path determines the minimum time in which the entire project can be completed. 12/9/2016 37
  • 38. CRITICAL PATH METHOD It highlights those activities which must be performed very rapidly, if the total project completion time is to be reduced. 12/9/2016 38
  • 39. CRITICAL PATH METHOD Specify the individual activities. Determine the sequence of those activities. Draw a network diagram. 12/9/2016 39
  • 40. CRITICAL PATH METHOD Estimate the completion time for each activity. Identify the critical path (longest path through the network) 12/9/2016 40
  • 41. SIGNIFICANCE OF CPM CPM is the key to successful merchandising calendar. 12/9/2016 41 It determines the critical functions necessary to perform an activity or series of activities required to achieve an overall objective. When a critical activity is delayed it forces all subsequent tasks to be delayed.
  • 42. DETERMINING CRITICAL PATH •The activities involved in development, execution and delivery need to be analyzed. •Determine the time required to accomplish them. •Determine the critical path. 12/9/2016 42