Power industries and solar pv power plant in pakistan

Presenter:
IBRAR
Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST)
South Korea
Solar PV power plant – in Pakistan

Table of Contents
1. Pakistan Profile
1.1 Overview Of Pakistan’s Power Sector
1.2 Pakistan Power Sector - Timeline Journey
1.3 Power Sector Institutions in Pakistan
1.4 Existing Structure of Power Sector
1.5 Pakistan Power Sector - Total Installed Capacity
1.6 Pakistan Energy Mix
1.7 Major Power Plants of Pakistan
1.8 Private Power & Infrastructure Board (PPIB) projects
2. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
2.1 CPEC and it’s Impact on Power Sector
2.2 CPEC Projects – Due 2020
3. Solar PV Potential in Pakistan
3.1 Solar Sector Development to Date in Pakistan
4. Tariff Determination
4.1. Tariff Process Overview
4.2 North/South Tariff Division
4.3 Project Costs And Indexation
5. SWOT Analysis
6. Proposed Solar PV power plant – Sukkar City (Pakistan)
6.1 - Ret-Screen software
6.2 - Proposed Solar PV Project Initiative Timeline:
6.3 - Location
7. Financial Viability
7.1 - Indicators of financial viability
7.2 - Projected financial viability for Single Axis Tracking System
in Sukkar city
8. References
2

1. Pakistan Profile
Area 881,913 km2 GDP (US$ b) 312
Population 200 m (5th) GDP / capita (US $) 1555
Pop. Growth Rate 1.80% Ex. rate PKR/$ 140
Labour Force 151.4 m Inflation rate 3.8%
Literacy 60% Pop < 30 yrs age 130 m
GDP Growth 5.79% Capital ISLAMABAD
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan
K e y S t a t i s t i c s
S t r a t e g i c L o c a t i o n
G D P c o m p o s i t i o n b y s e c t o r
P o p u l a t i o n D e n s i t y
Agriculture
21%
Services
58%
Industrial
21%
3

1.1 OVERVIEW OF PAKISTAN’S POWER SECTOR
 The Electricity Generation is blend of Hydel and Thermal Units.
 Total installed capacity is around 24,953 MW with 53% and 47% Share of Public and Private Sector respectively.
 Currently Country is facing deficit of around 6,000 MW in peak summer months whereas the power demand has been
growing by 6-7% per annum resulting into load shedding of 8-16 hours.
 Expansion in Transmission Network is required to evacuate power from upcoming projects.
 Due to Financial Constraints in the Public Sector, the GoP is focusing on private sector to bridge the electricity demand supply gap.
The price per kilowatt-hour to Rs. 5.11 (4.60 US cents)
4

1.2 PAKISTAN POWER SECTOR - TIMELINE JOURNEY
 Initially two vertically integrated utilities i.e. WAPDA and KESC, were responsible for generation, transmission and
distribution in their areas
 UPTO 70s: Performance of KESC and WAPDA was very good
 IN 80s: Some deterioration observed. Demand-Supply shortfall started
 IN 90s: Budget constraints lead the government to seek involvement of private sector in power generation projects
 1992: Govt. prepared strategic plan to reform Pakistan power sector
 1993: Energy Task Force created, Power Policy 1994 formulated
 1994: Creation of PPIB (Private Power and Infrastructure Board) & preparation of National Power Plan by WAPDA
 1997: Autonomous regulatory body NEPRA created, through an Act.
 2001: WAPDA Vision 2025 prepared
 2002: NEPRA issued a future plan for Pakistan Power Sector
 2005: Medium Term Development Framework (MTDF) prepared
5

1.3 Power Sector Institutions in Pakistan
At present the following entities are responsible for delivery of power
to the end consumers:
 One Transmission and Dispatch Company (National Transmission
& Distribution Company - NTDC)
 Ten Distribution Companies (DISCOs)
 Four Public Sector Generation Companies (GENCOs)
 Water & Power Development Authority (WAPDA)
 Karachi Electric Supply Company (KESC)
 Independent Power Produces (IPP)
 Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC)
 Thirty six (36) (Independent Power Producer – IPPs)
6

7
Private
Sector
IPPs
(Hydel, Oil,
Gas, Coal)
CPPs KESC
Provinces
Khyber
Pukhtoon
Khwa
Punjab Sindh Balochistan
AJK
Gilgit
Baltistan
IPPs/ SIPPs
(Small Hydel, Wind, Sol
ar, Bio Diesel, Bio Mass
, Cogeneration)
Ministry of
Water
& Power
Pakistan
Atomic
Energy
Commission
NEPRA
WAPDA AEDB PEPCO PPIB
Mega Dams
Water
Projects
GENCOs DISCOs NTDC
CHASNUPP KANUPP
GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN
1.4 Existing Structure of Power Sector

1.5 PAKISTAN POWER SECTOR - TOTAL INSTALLED CAPACITY
Total Installed Capacity 24,953 MW
Public Sector MW %
Hydel 7,013 28
Thermal 5,458 22
Nuclear 787 3
Total 13,258 53
Private Sector
MW %
IPPs 9,273 37
KESC 2,422 10
Total 11,695 47
Public Sector
Hydel, 7013, 28%
Public Sector
Thermal, 5458,
22%
Nuclear, 787, 3%
Private Sector,
11695, 47%
Total 24,953
Source: Power System Statistics – 39th Issue 8

Solar
2%
Import
2%
Hydel
26%
Gas
12%
Oil
14%
LNG
13%
Coal Local
4%
Coal
Imported
20%
Nuclear
3%
Wind
4%
Projected Fuel Mix 2020-21
1.6 PAKISTAN ENERGY MIX
9

1.7 Major Power Plants of PakistanWAPDA,PAEC,K-ElectricandsomeIndependentPowerProducersIPPs
Power Plants
Company Location Capacity
WAPDA (HYDEL)
Tarbela Dam 3478 MW
Mangla Dam 1000 MW
Ghazi-Barotha Hydropower Project 1450 MW
WAPDA (THERMAL)
Guddu Thermal Power Plant 1655 MW
Muzaffargarh Thermal Power Plant 1350 MW
Jamshoro Thermal Power Plant 850 MW
K-Electric
Thermal Power Station, Bin Qasim I 1260 MW
CCPP, Bin Qasim II 560 MW
Thermal Power Station, Korangi 316 MW
PEPCO Nandipur Power Project 425 MW
Solar Park Quaid-e-Azam Solar Park, (Bahawalpur) 400 MW
10

Major Power Plants of Pakistan (Cont...)
Power Plants
Company Location Capacity
PAEC
(Pakistan Atomic Energy
Commission)
KANUPP (Karachi nuclear power plant) 137 MW
CHASNUPP-1 (Chashma Nuclear Power Plant) 325 MW
CHASNUPP-2 325 MW
CHASNUPP-3 340 MW
CHASNUPP-4 340 MW
PEPCO Nandipur Power Project 425 MW
Solar Park Quaid-e-Azam Solar Park, (Bahawalpur) 1000 MW
IPPs
(Pakistan's independent power
producers (IPPs)
AES Lalpir Limited, Mehmood Kot 362 MW
AES Pak Gen, Mehmood Kot 365 MW
HUBCO Hub Power Plant, Hub 1292 MW
Kot Addu Power Company Limited 1638 MW
Lucky Electric Power Company Limited 660 MW
Uch (Uch-I and Uch-II) Power Limited, Dera Murad Jamali 990 MW
Engro Powergen Qadirpur Limited, Ghotki 226.5 MW 11

1.8 PPIB’s PORTFOLIO OF UPCOMING PRIVATE POWER PROJECTS
(IPPs)
Description/ Year
Hydel Coal Gas
Total (MW) No. of Projects
MW No. MW No. MW No.
2017 150 1 2,970 3 0 0 3,120 4
2018 0 0 2,640 2 0 0 2,640 2
2019 232 2 1833 4 0 0 2,065 6
2020 1,360 2 0 0 0 0 1,360 2
2021 870 1 0 0 0 0 870 1
2022 2,033 5 0 0 120 1 2,153 6
2023 1,690 2 0 0 0 0 1,690 2
2024 1,088 4 0 0 0 0 1,088 4
2025 80 1 0 0 0 0 80 1
Grand Total 7,503 18 7,443 9 120 1 15,066 28
1/13

Progress Of Ongoing IPP Projects Being Processed By Private Power &
Infrastructure Board (PPIB)
Sr.
No.
Name of the Project/
Fuel
Gross
Capacity
(MW)
Estimated
Investment
(Million US$)
Project
Company/
Sponsors
Expected
COD
Latest Status of the Project
A: PROJECT COMPLETED:
1
Patrind Hydropower
Project - Hydel
150 362
Star Power Ltd.
(K-Water &
Daewoo) Korea
Mar-17 • Project completed
Sub Total 150 362
B: PROJECT UNDER FINANCIAL CLOSING:
2.
Gulpur Hydro Power
Project – Hydel
102 323
Mira Power Ltd.
(KOSEP, DAELIM,
LOTTE, SAMBU)
Korea
Dec-19
• Land has been acquired
• GOP Implementation Agreement (GOPIA) executed and AJK
Implementation Agreement (AJKIA), Water Usage Agreement
(WUA) and Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) initialed
• EPC contractor mobilized for pre-construction activities
• EPC Tariff under approval process by NTDC/ NEPRA
• Project to achieve Financial Closing (FC) by 30th
June 2015
Sub Total 102 323
2/13

Sr.
No.
Name of the Project
Gross
Capacity
(MW)
Estimated
Investment
(Million US$)
Project Company/
Sponsors
Expected
COD
C: PRIORITY PROJECTS PROCESSED UNDER CHINA PAKISTAN ECONOMIC CORRIDOR:
3
1320 MW Port Qasim
Power Project at Port
Qasim –Imported Coal
1,320 1,914
Sinohydro
Resources Ltd.
China and
Al-Mirqab Capital
of Doha, Qatar
Jun-18
• Construction activities are under way
• Land filling work has been completed
• The Sponsors approached National Electric Power
Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) for acceptance of
Upfront Tariff and grant of Generation License on 7th
January 2015 and 18th
August 2014 respectively
through their newly incorporated project company;
Port Qasim Electric Power Company (Private)
Limited
• Upfront Tariff granted by NEPRA on 13th
February
2015
• Generation License issued by NEPRA on 3rd
February 2015
• LOS issued to the Sponsors on 17th
April 2015
• The Company signed IA & PPA with PPIB and NTDC
respectively on 18th
April 2015
• The Sponsors are required to achieve Financial
Closing by 15th
January 2016
3/13

Sr.
No.
Name of the Project
Gross
Capacity
(MW)
Estimated
Investment
(Million US$)
Project Company/
Sponsors
Expected
COD
4.
Suki Kinari Hydropower
Project – Hydel
870 1801
SK Hydro Pvt. Ltd.
(Al Jomaiah Holding
LLC Saudi Arabia &
Haseeb Khan & Co.
Pakistan)
Sep-21
• Land acquisition at final stage
• GOPIA and WUA executed
• EPC Tariff approved by NEPRA
• PPA and IA signed
• Project to achieve FC by 15th
September 2015
5. Karot Hydel Project – Hydel 720 1420
Karot Power
Company Ltd.
(China Three
Gorges, CWEI, ATL)
Jun-20
• Land acquisition under process
• EPC contractor selection by February 2015
• Negotiation on Project Agreements commenced
in October 2014
• Project to achieve Financial Closing by August 2016
• PPIB is trying and facilitating Sponsors to achieve FC
before scheduled date
6
1,320 MW Shandong Power
Project –Imported Coal
1,320 1,914
Huaneng Shandong
Ruyi (Pak) Energy
(Pvt) Ltd
Mar-18
• The Project is required to achieve Financial Closing
by 31st
December 2015
Infrastructure Board (PPIB) 4/13

Sr. No. Name of the Project
Gross
Capacity
(MW)
Estimated
Investment
(Million US$)
Project
Company/
Sponsors
Expected
COD
7
1,320 MW Shanghai
Electric Power Project
at Thar Block I, Sindh –
Thar Coal
1,320 1,914
Shanghai
Electric Group
Company
Limited
Dec-17
• The Sponsors submitted their proposal on 24th
March 2015. The
proposal has been declared responsive by PPIB’s consultant
• Currently, the process for issuance of NTP/ LOI has been
initiated
• The Sponsor signed equity investment agreement with China
Coal Technology and Engg. Group Corp. and Joint Venture
Agreement with Shanghai Electric Group Company Limited during
the visit of the Chinese President to Pakistan
8
660 MW Engro
Powergen Project at
Thar Block - II, Sindh –
Thar Coal
660 957
Engro Powergen
Limited
Feb-19
• NEPRA has announced upfront tariff for the Project and has
granted generation license. LOS was issued by PPIB on 17th
April
2015 and the Company signed its IA & PPA with PPIB and NTDC
respectively on 4th
May 2015
• The Project has also submitted its consent for opting Power
Generation Policy 2015
• The Sponsors signed term sheets for financing of the Power
Project and Coal Mine with China Development Bank Corporation
during the visit of the Chinese President to Pakistan
Sub Total 6,290 9,779
5/13

Sr.
No.
Name of the Project
Gross
Capacity
(MW)
Estimated
Investment
(Million US$)
Project Company/
Sponsors
Expected
COD
D: ACTIVELY PROMOTED PROJECTS UNDER CHINA PAKISTAN ECONOMIC CORRIDOR:
9
330 MW Salt Range Power
Project at Pind Dadan Khan,
Punjab –local Coal
330 480
China Machinery
Engineering
Corporation (CMEC)
Dec-17
• On 5th
June 2015, PPIB issued extension to the
term of the LOI till 19th
August 2015
10
HUBCO Imported Coal
based power project –
Imported Coal
1,320 1914 HUBCO Dec-17
• The Sponsors have submitted their formal
proposal to PPIB which is currently under
evaluation
• Subject to successful evaluation of the proposal,
Notice to Proceed would be issued to HUBCO by
the end of June 2015
11
Kohala Hydropower Project
– Hydel
1100 2397
CWE Investment/ China
Three Gorges Corp.,
China
Dec-23
• Feasibility Study (Stage-1) Tariff has been
approved by NEPRA
• Land acquisition process has been initiated
• Formation of SPV, Replacement of Main Sponsor
due to corporate restructuring of CTG,
reimbursement of Feasibility study cost to WAPDA
are in process. LOS will be issued after fulfilment of
pre-requisites by Sponsors
Sub Total 2,750 4,746
6/13

Sr.
No.
Name of the Project
Gross
Capacity
(MW)
Estimated
Investment
(Million US$)
Project
Company/
Sponsors
Expected
COD
E: OTHER COAL PROJECTS:
12
660 MW Imported Coal
Based Independent Power
Generation Project at Port
Qasim, Karachi –Imported
Coal
660 957
Lucky Electric
Power
Company
Limited
Oct-19
• After completion of necessary formalities, LOS to Lucky
issued on June 8, 2015 with Financial Close (FC) deadline of
June 7, 2016
13
350 MW Imported Coal
Based Independent Power
Generation Project at Port
Qasim, Karachi –Imported
Coal
350 508
Siddiqsons
Limited
Mar-19
• PPIB issued LOI to the Sponsors on 15th
February 2015.
• The Sponsors have reportedly approached National
Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) for acceptance
of Upfront Tariff and grant of Generation License .
Sub Total 1,010 1,465
7/13

Sr.
No.
Name of the Project
Gross
Capacity
(MW)
Estimated
Investment
(Million US$)
Project
Company/
Sponsors
Expected
COD
F: PROJECTS UNDER LOS/ TARIFF DETERMINATION/ NEGOTIATION:
14
Grange Holdings Power
Project – Converted from
RFO to Imported Coal
163 218
Grange Power
Limited/
Grange
Holdings
Limited
Jan-19
• Upon proposal of NTDC, the PPIB Board in its meeting held
on 2nd
July 2014 approved conversion of the project from
RFO to coal in order to reduce the cost of generation.
• On 7th
November 2014, NTDC submitted its acceptance
w.r.t. technical details of coal-fired power plant provided by
GPL as well as draft Settlement Agreement (SA) and LOI
• On 14th
November 2014, PPIB executed SA and LoI with
GPL for a 150 MW (Net) Coal-based IPP near Arifwala
• NEPRA has determined tariff on 13th
February 2015
• After completion of required formalities, new LOS has
been on 30th
March 2015 to the project based on imported
coal with the Financial Close deadline of 30th
December
2015 and COD deadline of 30th
January 2019
15 Sehra Hydel Project – Hydel 130 344
Farab Energy &
Water, Iran
Dec-19
• Approval of EPC stage tariff by NEPRA is under process
• Due to Parnai HPP in Occupied Kashmir, hydrology of this
project may be affected
8/13

Sr.
No.
Name of the Project
Gross
Capacity
(MW)
Estimated
Investment
(Million US$)
Project Company/
Sponsors
Expected
COD
F: PROJECTS UNDER LOS/ TARIFF DETERMINATION/ NEGOTIATION:
16
Azad Pattan Hydropower
Project – Hydel
640 1354
Alamgir Power Pvt.
Limited, Pakistan
Jun-20
• Feasibility stage tariff approved by NEPRA on
16th
October 2014
• However, Sponsors filed another review petition
to NEPRA for enhancement of IRR for Hydropower
projects to 20% in light of assurance given by
NEPRA in Asad Umar review decision in January
2015, and the same is under consideration by
NEPRA
• Project land acquisition and survey for land
required upto reservoir at AJ&K side has been
completed
• The company has initiated activities related to
CDM registration
17
Chakothi-Hattian Project –
Hydel
500 1092
Suhail Jute Mills Ltd.,
Pakistan
Dec-22
• Feasibility stage tariff review approved by
NEPRA on 16th
October 2014
• However, Sponsors approached Court of Law
against tariff approval by NEPRA
• Currently, the matter is sub judice
Sub Total 1,433 3,008
9/13

Sr.
No.
Name of the Project
Gross
Capacity
(MW)
Estimated
Investment
(Million US$)
Project Company/
Sponsors
Expected
COD
G: PROJECTS AT FEASIBILITY STUDY/ LOI STAGE:
18
Kaigah Hydel Project -
Hydel
548 1564
Assmandal Trading
Agency, UAE
M/s ATL Pakistan
Dec-24
• Feasibility Study completed
• Sponsors are in process of submission of feasibility
level tariff to NEPRA
19
Madian Hydropower
Project - Hydel
157 438
Cherat Cement,
Pakistan
Dec-22
• Feasibility study completed
• Progress is slow due to Law & Order situation in past
in the vicinity of Project Area and its perception
internationally
20
Asrit-Kedam Hydropower
Project - Hydel
215 405
Younas Brothers,
Pakistan
Dec-22
• Feasibility study completed
• Progress is slow due to Law & Order situation in past
in the vicinity of Project Area and its perception
internationally
21
Mahl Hydropower Project
- Hydel
590 885
CWE Investment/ China
Three Gorges Corp.,
China
Dec-23
• Feasibility Study is in progress. First meeting of POE
was held on 21st
January 2015
• Consultants following recommendations of POE are
conducting surveys/ investigations for finding more
alternatives of dam site location. The Inception Report
and Report on Dam Site has been submitted
Sub Total 1,510 3,292
10/13

Sr.
No.
Name of the Project
Gross
Capacity
(MW)
Estimated
Investment
(Million US$)
Project Company/
Sponsors
Expected
COD
H: PROJECTS AT EARLY DEVELOPMENT STAGE:
22
Kandra Power Project -
low BTU gas + pipeline
quality gas
120 90
Petroleum Exploration
Ltd.
Dec-22
• Project is based on both pipeline quality gas and low
BTU gas from a dedicated gas field
• LOS not issued due to the non-allocation of pipeline
quality gas required for commingling with low BTU
Kandra gas
23
Lower Palas Valley
Hydropower Project –
Hydel
665 1159
Govt of Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa, WAPDA
and
K-Water & Daewoo
Engineering of Korea
Dec-22
• Project under implementation under Public Private
Partnership (PPP) mode
• MOU signed in this respect has expired
• Presently WAPDA and GoKP (Public Consortium
Partners) are reviewing and making deliberation on way
forward for implementation of the project
24
Lower Spat Gah
Hydropower Project –
Hydel
496 1057
Korea Midland Power
Co. Ltd and POSCO
Engineering
Co. Ltd (KOMIPO
Consortium) Korea
Dec-22
• Project under implementation under Public Private
Partnership (PPP) mode
• MOU signed in this respect has expired
• Sponsors’ request for extension of the MOU is under
review by GoKP and WAPDA
Sub Total 1,281 2,306
11/13

Gross
Capacity
(MW)
Estimated
Investment
(Million US$)
Expected
COD
I: PROJECTS AT ADVERTISEMENT/ PROPOSAL STAGE:
25
Athmuqam Hydropower
Project - Hydel
350 525 Dec-24
• PPIB invited EOI for the development of the project
• No proposal received
• PPIB Board has advised for re-advertisement
• As per PPIB Board's advice, EOI will be re-invited in near
future
26
Turtonas-Uzghor Hydropower
Project - Hydel
58 87 Dec-24
• Proposals received are under evaluation by an independent
consultant
27
Neckeherdm-Paur
Hydropower Project - Hydel
80 120 Dec-25
• No proposal received.
• The project will be re-advertised through Press in future
12/13

Gross
Capacity
(MW)
Estimated
Investment
(Million US$)
Expected
COD
28
Rajdhani Hydropower Project -
Hydel
132 198 Dec-24
• Following decision of 95th
Board meeting dated 5th
March 2014;
PPIB invited EOI for the development of the project
• Evaluation of proposals completed by Consultant
• AJK PDO Board on 4th
July 2014 revived the cancelled LOS after
lapse of about 2 years
• Afterwards, PPIB through its letter dated 12th
September 2014,
Ministry of Water & Power through letter dated 5th
November 2014
and AJ&K Council’s through letter dated 11th
November 2014
requested AJK PDO Board for reconsideration/ resolution of the
matter in accordance with law and policy. However, AJK PDO Board
in its meeting dated 5th
December 2014 maintained its previous
decision for extension/ revival of the LOS
• PPIB Board was updated about the matter in its 99th
meeting
dated 15th
December 2014, and in this regard “the Board advised
PPIB to get in touch with the Chief Secretary AJ&K, as a first step.
However, if things do not move further, the matter should be put
forth before the AJ&K Council”. Accordingly, Chief Secretary AJK has
been requested to provide comments on issue of Project
development. Response of the same is being awaited.
Sub Total 720 1,080
13/13

2. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) 1/7
• May 2013 by china President
• 3000 KM Network Of Road, Rail, Pipeline and Optical Fibers.
• Linking kashgar northwest china’s Xinxiang region and southwest
Pakistan’s Gawadar port.
• China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is considered to be a crucial
link between the ambitious One Belt, One Road and Maritime Silk
Road projects (Wekipedia)
• Energy Projects
• Industrial Corporations
• China Is Providing $45.6 Billion
• $11.8 For Infrastructure
• $33.8 Billion For Power Projects
25
Regional Connectivity
is the 7th Pillar of
Pakistan Vision 2025
Serves Asia’s over 3 Bi
llion population

2.1 CPEC and it’s Impact on Power Sector 2/7
• Electricity generation has increased by 3.18%
in 2015 as a result of Government of Pakis
tan (GoP) efforts and China–Pakistan
Economic Corridor (CPEC).
• Pakistan has begun diversifying its energy
producing capacity by investing in coal,
nuclear energy, solar energy and wind
energy to help offset the energy shortage
while larger projects greater than 1000 MW.
26

Zonergy Solar Power Plant - 3/7
27
 Located At Bhawalpur
 World Largest solar Power Plant
 $1.5 Billion Project
 1000 MV Production Expected
 Build In 3 Phases
 Complete At The end Of 2016
 By Zonergy Company

Karot hydro Power plant – 4/7
28
It is on Jhelum river near to
the Islamabad (Capital)
Produce 720 MW
$1.65 Billion Project
 Will complete in 2020
By Three Goreges Corporation

Suki Kinari Hydro Power Plant – 5/7
29
It is in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Province
870 MW Produce
Started In 2014
End In 2020
https://twitter.com/CPEC_Official/status/889840317515657216

Port Qasim Coal-Fired Power Plant – 6/7
30
o $2.085 Billion Project
o Completed in the end Of 2017
o Produce 1320MW
o By China Resource Limited
https://www.power-technology.com/projects/port-qasim-coal-fired-power-plant-karachi/

Wind Power Projects - 7/7
31
• Thatta Project
• Will add (135 Giga Watt-hours)
• Total investment of ($ 119 Million)
• Hydro China Dawood Project
• Installed Capacity (50MW)
• Estimated Cost ($ 125 Million)
• Sachal Project
• Installed Capacity (50MW)
• Estimated Cost ($ 134 Million)

2.2 CPEC Projects – Due 2020
Power Stations Capacity
Pakistan Port Qasim Power Project 1320 (2x660MW)
Sahiwal Coal Power Project 1320 (2x660MW)
Rahimyar Khan coal power project 1320 (2x660MW)
Thar SSRL coal power project and mine 1320 (2x660MW)
Quaid-e-Azam Solar Park 1000MW
Suki Kinari Hydropower Project 870MW
Karot Hydropower Project 720MW
HUBCO coal power project 660MW
Thar Engro Coal Power Project 660 (2x330MW)
Gwadar coal power project 300MW
UEP Windfarm 100MW
Others* 50x3MW 32

3. Solar PV Potential in Pakistan
 Pakistan is a country with huge potential of solar energy. It has solar
energy potential of 2900 GW.
 Pakistan receives about 15.5x1014 kWh of solar irradiance each year
with most regions receiving approximately 8 to 10 sunlight hours per
day.
 For 10 h a day, average solar radiation intensity ranges from
1500W/m2/day to 2750W/m2/day in Pakistan especially in southern
Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan regions throughout the year, hence in an
area of 100 m2, 45 MW to 83 MW power per month may be generated
in the above-mentioned regions.
 In Pakistan values of GHI is in the range of 200-250 watt/m2 with 1500
to 3000 sunshine hours in the year
 The solar mapping component includes up to two years of high quality,
ground-based solar measurements taken from nine sites across Pakistan
33

3.1 Solar Sector Development to Date in Pakistan
 The Government of Pakistan’s (GOP) released its Policy for Development of Renewable Energy Generation
(the 2006 RE Policy).
 The 2006 RE Policy dealt with wind, solar and small hydro (<50 MW), within the country.
 However, since 2006, progress has been slow and it is only in the last ten years that investor interest has gained
momentum, particularly in the wind and hydro sector and more recently in solar.
 To date, the only grid connected utility scale solar project in Pakistan to reach its Commercial Operation Date
(COD) is a publically-sponsored 100 MW project commissioned by the Government of Punjab in May 2015.
 The Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) reports that 35 projects with a capacity of 1111.4 MW are
under development.
34

4. Tariff Determination
 In 2016, Pakistan's National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) proposed new upfront feed-in tariffs
(FiTs) for photovoltaic (PV) and wind power plants in the country. three projects of 100 MW each have signed a
Power Purchase Agreement (PPA).
 FITs for a 25-year Solar PPA granted by NEPRA in 2016, depend on their location.
Category > 1 ≤ 20MW > 20 ≤ 50MW > 50 ≤ 100MW
Northern Pakistan - Levelized Tariff (US Cents/kWh) 11.5327 11.4460 11.3560
Southern Pakistan- Levelized Tariff (US Cents/kWh) 10.8920 10.8101 10.725
2016 SOLAR UPFRONT TARIFF/FIT DETERMINATION BY NEPRA 35

 In Pakistan, The 2006 RE Policy sets out three methods for tariff determination for
grid connected utility scale renewables:
• Competitive bidding (solicited proposals)
• Direct negotiations for a cost-plus tariff (unsolicited proposals)
• FIT setting (known in Pakistan as an upfront tariff)
4.1. Tariff Process Overview
4.2 NORTH/SOUTH TARIFF DIVISION
 Pakistan has been divided into two zones based on solar
irradiance levels.
36
Tariff Ground-Based Term
Northern region 1MW - 100MW
First 10 years: PKR20.01 (US$0.189)
Following 15 years: PKR9.13
(US$0.09
25 year upfront payment.
Southern region 1MW - 100MW
First 10 years: PKR21.11 (US$0.20)
Following 15 years: PKR8.75
(US$0.08)
25 year upfront payment
Source: https://www.pv-tech.org/tariffs/list
Northern region
Southern region

Tariff Determination (Cont.…)
4.3 PROJECT COSTS AND INDEXATION
Project Costs (USD/MW)
Project Costs (USD/MW) > 50 MW ≤ 100 MW >20 MW ≤ 50 MW >1 MW ≤ 20 MW
Engineering, Procurement, Construction (EPC) Costs 1,034,000 1,054,680 1,075,360
EPC Costs (including Degradation) 1,071,431 1,092,859 1,114,288
Land 23,810 23,810 23,810
Project Development Cost 36,658 38,490 40,320
Insurance During Construction 10,714 9,107 7,429
Capex (Capital expenditure) 1,142,613 1,164,266 1,185,846
Financing
Financing Fees & Charges 29,994 30,562 31,128
Interest During Construction 21,334 16,043 10,565
Subtotal 51,328 46,605 41,693
Total Project Cost 1,193,940 1,210,871 1,227,540
2016TARIFFASSUMEDPROJECTCOSTS
The adjustment shall be made only for the currency fluctuation against the reference exchange rate exchange rate is PKR 150 / 1US$
37

5. SWOT ANALYSIS
Strengths Weaknesses
 Pakistan has an area of the highest solar insolation in the world
and has immense solar resources.
 There are certain region of south Quetta valley and central
Punjab that receives maximum solar radiations.
 In many part of Balochistan the radiation is between 6.5 to 7
kwh/m2 per day.
 Solar energy production is cheaper than nonrenewable resources
which lead higher cost in energy production.
 Solar power will cause to decrease the global warming.
 Require very little maintenance cost beyond regular cleaning.
 There is no such equipment’s in the Pakistan which store the
energy from solar and use them later.
 Use of expertise technicians of the solar panels for maintenance.
 Unreliability; the usage of solar panels use the only 12-hours
which cause the collapse in the energy production.
 Inefficiency; since not all the light from the sun is absorbed by
solar panels. Therefore most solar panels have 40% efficiency
rate which means 60% of the sun light get wasted.
 Right place (location) will generate accurate amount of energy
from solar panels.
Opportunities Threats
 Supply of energy production will be little bit higher and
indifference in the demand and supply of energy will be
decreased.
 The usage of solar panels will decrease the usage of non-
renewable sources which currently Pakistan is using in energy
generation.
 The suitable areas of Pakistan for solar panels will increase the
production capacity.
 Foreign investor’s investment will be increased and that will be
helpful for initial investment in solar panels.
 Economical Barriers - Solar energy projects are capital intensive
and have low economies of scale. It requires a long time for
payback.
 Policy Barriers - Confusing policies regarding the participation of
private investors
 No feed-in tariff system
 Unreliable local technology
 Dependence on foreign personnel to install and operate large
solar energy projects
 Lack of awareness about solar energy especially in rural areas
38

6. Proposed Solar PV power plant – Sukkar City (Pakistan)
• National resources Canada has provided free access to the Ret-Screen software to
simulate energy production cost, economic feasibility of solar system, payback period,
CO2 reduction cost and life cycle cost of renewable energy technology.
• To access total energy generated from solar power plant, global solar radiations on
horizontal surface, monthly average air temperature and type of tracking systems are
used by Ret-Screen software to calculate energy delivered by gird.
39
6.1 - Ret-Screen software
• We can select Ret-Screen software to
access economic viability of solar PV
power plant in Sindh province.

6.2 - Proposed Solar PV Project Initiative Timeline:
• The initiative may be begin in September 2019 and will have quarterly checkpoints on progress and reports to regional stakeholders.
• Based on available resources and participant engagement, on-the-ground project construction could start as early as mid-2021.
40
Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021
Begin recruiting
participant and
pre-screening
potential sites for
solar development
Full feasibility
assessments for
high-potential
sites
Bundle sites
and issues
group Request
For Proposal
Evaluate economic
and environmental
benefits and finalize
contract for selected
installation sites
Final system design
and project
construction begins
Review potential for
solar development and
sign MOU to proceed
with viable projects
Evaluation of
vendor responses
and negotiation of
contract terms
Present projects
and contract to
council/Board for
approval

• In Sindh province Sukkur city has highest radiation value 5.35 KWh/m2/day
• Sukkur city receives annual solar radiations of 1950 kWh/m2/year.
• The average total energy generated by solar PV system for one region was also estimated
to 1.73 kWh per day.
• For Sukkur city, crystalline PV modules will be better choice because it has high value of
direct normal radiations
41
City Elevation
(m)
Latitude
(Degrees N)
Longitude
(Degrees E)
Average
temperature (°C)
Radiation horizontal
surface (kWh/m2 /d)
Electricity
generated
(GWh/year
Sukkur 51 27.7 68.9 26.2 5.35 16,353
Source: Energy Yearbook, Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan (HDIP), GoP, 2015.
6.3 - Location

7. Financial Viability
• Capital cost for 10 MW solar PV power plant is taken as $ 23.57 M.
• Government of Pakistan need to provide incentives like income tax exemption and the premium tariff on
solar projects.
• Tariff selected for the solar power plant is $ 0.12/KWh
• For PV plant following Inputs can be considered
42
Capacity of Power plant 10 MW
Tracking system Single-axis tracking
PV array losses 10%
Inverter losses 5%
Project life 25 years
Electricity export rate $ 0.12/kwh (NEPRA,2016)
Electricity export increase 5%
Debt ratio 40% (NREl,2015)
Inflation rate 7.64% (2019)

43
7.1 - Indicators of financial viability
Indicator Single-axis tracking Solar PV
Expected Generated power (GWh/year) 20.944
Additional Cost of tracking system ($/w) 1.0
Capital cost (Million $) 23.57
O&M cost ($/year) 511,000
Expected Outcome
 For single-axis tracking Solar PV of 10 MW, capital expenditure would be Million $ 23.57.
 And will generate an annual energy of 20.499 GWh/year
 Annual O&M cost of $ 511,000 at Sukkur region

44
7.2 - Projected financial viability for Single Axis Tracking System in Sukkar city
Output Variable Output Value (at
Sukkur)
Proposed optimum
value
Net Present Value $ 17,303,143 Positive Value
Cost of electricity
($/MWh)
68.17 $/MWh must be equal to or
lower than the tariff
Benefit-cost ratio 3.13 1 >
Payback (Year) 6
Internal rate of return
(IRR) on equity
21.3 % IRR ≥ Required rate of
return
Year to positive cash 6 Value < 10 years
 Payback would be 6 years
 While IRR on equity would be 21.3% which is greater than required rate of return of 6%.
 Sukkur would be best location for 10MW solar PV power plant in Sindh Province
Expected Outcome

8. References
- World Bank Group (2015). Solar Modeling Report. Available at: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/03/24365411/solar-resource-
mapping-pakistan-solar-modeling-report
- Available here: https://databox.worldbank.org/initiative/renewable-resource
- http://www.wapda.gov.pk
- Available here: http://esmap.org/re_mapping_pakistan
- http://www.aedb.org/Documents/Policy/REpolicy.pdf
- Quaid E-Azam Solar (Pvt) Ltd at Quaid E- Azam Solar Park
- AEDB presentation at London 2015 conference
- Dawn News: Solar energy to be brought into national power grid (7th January 2015)
- National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Alternative and Renewable Energy) Distributed Generation and Net –Metering Regulations 2015
Found at: http://www.nepra.org.pk/Legislation/Regulations/NOTIFICATION%20SRO%20892%20-2015.PDF
- http://www.aedb.org/index.php/ju-download/19-solar-standard-docs
- http://www.nepra.org.pk/tariff_upfront.htm
- National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) state of industry report, 2016
- Energy Yearbook, HDIP, GoP, 2015.
- Harijan K, Uqili MA, Mirza UK. Assessment of Solar PV Power Generation Potential in Pakistan. Clean Energy Technologies Journal. 2015;3(1).
- http://solargis.com/maps-and-data/free/download/pakistan-and-surrounding-regions
45

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