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IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS, VOL. 14, NO. 2, JUNE 2013 637
A Probabilistic Framework for Decision-Making
in Collision Avoidance Systems
Mattias Brännström, Fredrik Sandblom, and Lars Hammarstrand
Abstract—This paper is concerned with the problem of deci-
sion-making in systems that assist drivers in avoiding collisions.
An important aspect of these systems is not only assisting the
driver when needed but also not disturbing the driver with unnec-
essary interventions. Aimed at improving both of these properties,
a probabilistic framework is presented for jointly evaluating the
driver acceptance of an intervention and the necessity thereof
to automatically avoid a collision. The intervention acceptance is
modeled as high if it estimated that the driver judges the situation
as critical, based on the driver’s observations and predictions of
the traffic situation. One advantage with the proposed framework
is that interventions can be initiated at an earlier stage when
the estimated driver acceptance is high. Using a simplified driver
model, the framework is applied to a few different types of collision
scenarios. The results show that the framework has appealing
properties, both with respect to increasing the system benefit and
to decreasing the risk of unnecessary interventions.
Index Terms—Automotive safety, collision avoidance (CA),
decision-making, driver modeling, threat assessment.
I. INTRODUCTION
ROAD traffic accidents are one of the world’s largest
public health problems. In the European Union alone,
traffic accidents cause approximately 1.8 million injuries
and 43 000 fatalities each year [1]. To reduce these numbers,
vehicle manufacturers are developing systems that can detect
hazardous traffic situations and actively assist road users in
avoiding or mitigating accidents. Systems that assist drivers in
avoiding collisions are becoming increasingly more common
and are even being introduced as standard equipment in some
passenger cars [2].
Collision avoidance (CA) systems can generally be divided
into three layers, as shown in Fig. 1. Measurements from on-
board sensors, such as accelerometers, cameras, and radars,
are processed in the first layer and then interpreted in the
second layer, which makes decisions on when and how to
Manuscript received December 13, 2011; revised May 14, 2012 and
September 14, 2012; accepted October 19, 2012. Date of publication
December 5, 2012; date of current version May 29, 2013. This work was
supported by the Swedish National Road Authorities through the Strategic
Vehicle Research and Innovation Program and through the Intelligent Vehicle
Safety Systems Program. The Associate Editor for this paper was H. Dia.
M. Brännström is with the Department of Safety Electronics and Func-
tions, Volvo Car Corporation, Gothenburg 405 31, Sweden (e-mail: mattias.
brannstrom@volvocars.com).
F. Sandblom is with the Department of Safety Functions & Electronics,
Volvo Group Trucks Technology, Gothenburg 405 08, Sweden (e-mail: fredrik.
sandblom.2@volvo.com).
L. Hammarstrand is with the Department of Signals and Systems,
Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg 412 96, Sweden (e-mail: lars.
hammarstrand@chalmers.se).
Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/TITS.2012.2227474
Fig. 1. CA systems can be divided into three layers. This paper focuses
on decision-making strategies in the presence of measurement and prediction
uncertainties. The framework is applied to a threat assessment algorithm and
a model that estimates if the driver judges the situation as critical. These are
jointly evaluated when making decisions for interventions.
assist the driver. The third layer executes the decision, e.g., by
automatically applying the brakes of the vehicle.
The measurements contain random errors, and consequently,
the vehicle and object state estimates that are obtained in the
sensor fusion layer are associated with uncertainties. A threat
assessment algorithm utilizes these estimates to make predic-
tions of road-user trajectories. Based on these predictions, an
assessment is performed to estimate if and how a potential
accident can be prevented [3], [4]. Both the state estimates and
the predictions are associated with uncertainties that need to
be treated properly [5]. Moreover, to obtain a high customer
acceptance, it is important that the system also accounts for the
preferences of driver, such that the driver is not disturbed by the
system during normal driving conditions [6], [7].
The aim of CA systems is to assist drivers in avoiding
collisions with other road users and objects, without triggering
interventions that the driver may consider unnecessary. Clearly,
to autonomously avoid a collision, an intervention must be
triggered while an accident is still avoidable. However, most
collisions that can be avoided by CA systems possibly can
also be avoided by a skilled driver. This implies that there is
no way of telling whether the driver would have been able to
handle the situation without the system intervening. That is,
there is no objective measure available for judging whether an
intervention was useful or whether the driver was disturbed by
the system. It is only the driver of the vehicle that can decide
whether an intervention was motivated or not. Hence, when
making decisions on when the system shall take action, there is
always a tradeoff between making a successful intervention and
the risk of disturbing the driver. This highlights the need of in-
corporating a driver model in the CA system, such that vehicle
safety can be further improved by enabling earlier interventions
in traffic situations that the driver judges as critical.
1524-9050/$31.00 © 2012 IEEE
638 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS, VOL. 14, NO. 2, JUNE 2013
This paper is concerned with decision-making in CA systems
in the presence of uncertainties. Several probabilistic decision-
making algorithms have previously been proposed, e.g., [3],
[5], [8]–[10]. In these approaches, the risk of a false alarm is
balanced with the confidence that an autonomous intervention
is actually needed to avoid a collision. The term “false alarm”
is, in these cases, typically defined as an intervention per-
formed, although there would not have been a collision. From
the driver’s point of view, however, a more relevant definition
would be an intervention performed that the driver regarded as
unnecessary. In this paper, we propose to simultaneously eval-
uate the driver acceptance of an intervention and the necessity
thereof, as shown in Fig. 1. To formally deal with uncertainties
in measurements and predictions, we propose that decisions
on when to assist the driver are made by taking a Bayesian
approach to estimate the following:
1) how a collision can be avoided by an intervention;
2) the probability that the driver of the vehicle will consider
the autonomous intervention as motivated.
The framework enables interventions to be initiated at an
earlier stage when there is a high probability that the driver will
consider an intervention as justified. In this way, the benefit of
CA systems can be increased without disturbing the driver of
the vehicle. Moreover, to reduce the risk of the driver getting
used to having interventions, and starting to rely too much on
the system, interventions are not initiated until a significant
action is needed to avoid a collision.
To put the framework into context, a previously presented
threat assessment algorithm is used as a base to assess how a
collision with a single road user can be avoided [11]. Similar
to [5], the framework enables this assessment to be performed
in a probabilistic way, such that uncertainties in object state
estimates and predictions are accounted for. More importantly,
in contrast to previous research, the framework also estimates
the driver’s perceived threat considering both the inherent
measurement uncertainties as well as uncertainties within a
model of the driver’s assessment of the traffic situation. To
exemplify this, we introduce a simple model of the driver’s
threat assessment and apply it in the proposed framework.
This paper is organized as follows. Section II provides the
motivation for this paper and shows that a small change in the
decision timing can have a significant impact on the benefit
of CA systems. Section III outlines the problem formula-
tion and Section IV describes the decision-making framework.
Section V presents the modeling choices made in the specific
implementation used to evaluate the framework in this paper.
Section VI describes, based on these modeling choices, how
the decision-making framework can be realized. Results are
presented in Section VII, where the realization is evaluated on a
few different types of collision scenarios, using both simulated
and authentic sensor measurements. Conclusions are presented
in Section VIII.
II. MOTIVATION
Here, we describe how this paper is related to previous re-
search on driver models and show, through an example, that sys-
tem benefit is strongly affected by the timing of interventions.
A. Related Literature
Goodrich and Boer [6] propose that CA systems should
account for not only the capabilities of the vehicle and the
sensor system but also the autonomy and preferences of the
driver. Benefit and cost functions are introduced to make
decisions based on a tradeoff between the potential benefit
of an intervention and the cost of disturbing the driver with
an unnecessary intervention. Although the concept of using
cost functions is appealing at first glance, this concept has
some potential drawbacks that are pointed out, e.g., in [3].
For example, the cost of an unnecessary intervention may
be difficult to define and relate to the benefit of avoiding a
potential collision. Hence, the behavior of the CA system may
be hard to predict, and the tuning of the system could become
problematic.
McCall and Trivedi [12] propose that the probability that the
driver intends to apply the brakes shall be estimated and that
interventions shall be inhibited if the driver intends to brake.
The intent to brake is predicted by using a camera that monitors
the driver’s pedal usage and a camera that monitors the driver’s
face. Although a foot camera may be used to predict whether
the driver intends to apply the brakes, it is probably difficult to
predict whether the driver intends to steer. The driver may also
be drowsy or cognitively distracted; in which case, the driver’s
intent could be difficult to predict, even if the driver has placed
a foot on the brake pedal. Moreover, in traffic situations where
the driver intends to brake to avoid a collision, it is reasonable
to assume that the driver may consider a brake intervention as
motivated and, thus, as not disturbing.
Rather than trying to solve the difficult problem of estimating
the driver’s intent or the cost of disturbing the driver, the
presented framework aims only to estimate whether the driver
will consider an intervention as justified. In this way, driver
autonomy can be maintained by only allowing the system to
act when it is estimated that the driver has high acceptability
for interventions.
B. Impact
As mentioned in Section I, one of the aims of this paper is to
formulate a decision-making framework that can be used to im-
prove the intervention timing of CA systems. What additional
benefit is expected if the intervention timing is improved by a
fraction of a second? This question is investigated through an
example.
Assume that a vehicle equipped with a CA system is driving
at an initial speed v0 and that automatic emergency braking
is initiated with a timing such that the speed is reduced to vc
before colliding with a stationary object. How much earlier
does the braking have to be initiated to fully avoid a collision?
In all CA systems, the deceleration will eventually reach a
constant value a and a collision is avoided if
s =
v2
c
2a
(1)
where extra meters are available to bring the host vehicle to a
complete stop. The time to travel this distance, before braking
BRÄNNSTRÖM et al.: PROBABILISTIC FRAMEWORK FOR DECISION-MAKING IN CA SYSTEMS 639
Fig. 2. Graph shows how much earlier the intervention of a CA system
must be triggered to fully avoid a collision instead of colliding at an impact
velocity vc. The three curves show the required timing improvement Δt for
three different crash velocities vc = 20, 15, and 10 km/h, from top to bottom.
Braking Δt s earlier fully avoids a collision with a stationary object by the
smallest possible margin. The result is valid for braking on dry asphalt and is
invariant to system time delays td and brake system ramp-up times tr within
the range of most CA systems.
is initiated, is
Δt =
s
vo
=
v2
c
2av0
. (2)
Consequently, by applying the brakes Δt s earlier, the required
extra distance is gained, and the collision is avoided. The
required timing change Δt as a function of the initial velocity
v0 is shown in Fig. 2.
For example, given the initial speed v0 = 15 m/s, the reduced
impact speed vc = 4 m/s (i.e., 54 and 14 km/h), and that the
vehicle is driven on dry asphalt (a = 10 m/s2
), it is enough to
brake Δt ≈ 0.05 s earlier to fully avoid an accident. To put this
time into perspective, we will compare this time with the total
intervention timing required for avoiding a collision. Assume
that the autonomous brake system has an initial delay td before
braking is applied and that it takes an additional time tr before
full braking capacity a is reached. Furthermore, let tTTC be the
time to collision (TTC) given that the vehicle speed is constant
and braking is not applied. Then, a collision is fully avoided if
braking is initiated at
tavoid
TTC = td +
tr
2
+
v0
2a
(3)
whereas the vehicle collides with an impact speed, i.e.,
vc = 2av0Δt (4)
if the braking is delayed by Δts. For a typical CA system, td ≈
0.05 s and tr ≈ 0.5 s, which in the example given earlier that
a collision is fully avoided if braking is initiated at tavoid
TTC =
1.05 s, whereas the vehicle collides at vc = 4 m/s if braking is
applied at tmitigate
TTC = tavoid
TTC − Δt ≈ 1 s.
Apparently, the required difference in timing to attain avoid-
ance rather than mitigation can be very small. The reason for
this is that the required distance s to bring the host vehicle
to a complete stop from the reduced velocity vc is relatively
short once a constant deceleration a has been reached [see
(1)]. Consequently, the time Δt it takes to travel the short
distance s before braking is initiated is small and decreases with
increasing initial speed v0 [see (2)]. If the intervention timing
can be improved just by a fraction of a second, then there is a
high impact on the benefit of the system.
Fig. 3. When making intervention decisions, the proposed framework treats
uncertainties both in state estimates and in obstacle trajectories over a prediction
horizon, as indicated by the light grey area in front of the car. The vehicle
hosting the CA system can be represented by any type of automotive vehicle,
e.g., a car, a motorcycle, or a truck, as shown in this scenario.
III. PROBLEM FORMULATION
Let xh
k be a state vector representing the state, i.e., position,
velocity, etc., at discrete time instance tk of a vehicle hosting
a CA system. Similarly, let xt
k be a state vector describing
the state of all other objects of interest, e.g., other vehicles
or pedestrians in the vicinity of the host vehicle. Given noisy
observations on these states collected up to the current time tk,
denoted as Y1:k, an intervention decision rule for avoiding acci-
dents without disturbing the driver is desired. This decision rule
should take into consideration that the state vectors themselves
are not known to the CA system but, rather, only their posterior
probability density function (pdf) p(xh
k, xt
k|Y1:k) calculated by
the sensor fusion system [13] is known.
IV. PROBABILISTIC DECISION-MAKING
Here, we describe a probabilistic decision-making frame-
work and aim at answering the following questions.
1) How can the risk of disturbing the driver be modeled?
2) What decision strategy is suitable when trajectory predic-
tions of road users are associated with uncertainties?
A robust decision rule in a CA system must treat several
sources of uncertainties. First, there is an inherent uncertainty
in the states xh
k and xt
k as they are observed using noisy and
imperfect measurements. Second, to assess the danger in a
situation, the system needs to make predictions regarding the
unknown future, i.e., a task for which statistical models are
well suited [14]. Both of these uncertainty sources, shown in
Fig. 3, can be addressed by using a probabilistic approach to
decision-making.
A. Decision-Making Strategy
As previously mentioned in Section I, we propose to si-
multaneously evaluate the driver acceptance of an intervention
and the necessity thereof. Furthermore, we propose to do so
in a probabilistic decision framework considering two sets of
hypotheses. The first set captures the driver acceptance (driver
hypotheses). The second set describes the necessity for the CA
system to initiate an autonomous intervention to autonomously
avoid an accident (system hypotheses). This latter hypothesis
640 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS, VOL. 14, NO. 2, JUNE 2013
set is used to manage the risk that the driver gets used to having
interventions and, hence, may start to rely on the fact that
the system will avoid all accidents. When assessing the driver
acceptance, we argue that the driver has a high acceptance for
interventions if the driver judges the traffic situation as critical
when an intervention is initiated.
In situations where the driver is distracted, we argue that the
driver will become alert if an intervention is triggered and hence
be able to judge if the situation is critical or not.
The two hypothesis sets are denoted as
Hd
0 Driver judges the situation as not critical
Hd
1 Driver judges the situation as critical
(5)
Hc
0 CA systems judges the situation as not critical
Hc
1 CA systems judges the situation as critical
(6)
where the CA system only takes action if both Hd
1 is selected
over Hd
0, and Hc
1 is selected over Hc
0. If the probability of these
hypotheses can be calculated based on the information avail-
able, i.e., Pr{Hd
i |Y1:k} and Pr{Hc
i |Y1:k}, the decision rule
detailed in the Appendix can be used to choose one hypothesis
over the other [see (44)]. Later, we derive the framework needed
to make these decisions. For this, we need to define what a
critical situation is.
B. Criticality Assessment
A vital component in a CA system is the ability to detect
and assess the criticality of the current traffic situation, i.e.,
threat assessment. In the literature, there are many different
approaches to do this, and good examples can be found in, e.g.,
[3], [9], [11], and [15]–[17]. Similar to many of these methods,
we argue that a situation is judged as critical by an actor, i.e.,
to the driver or to the CA system, if the actor is unable to find
a safe escape path. Let there be a set of n objective physical
measures, denoted as {α1, . . . , αn}, describing the criticality
of different types of potential evasive maneuvers by an actor.
These measures could be based, e.g., on TTC metrics [5] or
on the needed use of available tire-to-road friction to avoid an
accident [11]. Each measure αi corresponds to a specific type of
evasive action by the actor, e.g., emergency braking, passing to
the side of the threat, or using a combined braking and steering
maneuver. Maneuver i is defined as critical by the actor if the
measure exceeds some limit, i.e., αi > αlim
i . The situation as a
whole is defined to be judged as critical if all of these measures,
individually, are judged as critical. To put it differently, the
situation is critical to the actor if the actor judges that there is
no safe escape path.
When assessing the measures, we argue that they should be
evaluated in themselves, independently of all other measures,
and not jointly as in many other applications. A short example
illustrates when the latter approach fails to assess whether there
is a safe escape path or not. Let a vehicle approach a pedestrian
walking with constant speed across the road and let there be
two measures α1 and α2 representing how difficult it is to pass
either to the left or to the right of the pedestrian. If the actor does
not know exactly how fast the pedestrian is walking, then α1
and α2 are correlated as shown by p(α1, α2) in Fig. 4. In prac-
tice, this means that it is relatively easy to pass either to the left
Fig. 4. Probability density p(α1, α2) for the measures α1 and α2 when
approaching a pedestrian walking across the road.
or to the right, depending on how fast the pedestrian is walking.
That is, the probability that both measures jointly exceed their
respective limits, i.e., Pr{α > αlim
}, is very small, and under
this measure, the situation would be classified as noncritical.
However, the actor needs to actually make a choice of whether
to steer to the left or to the right of the pedestrian, but being
uncertain about the pedestrian’s walking speed, it is equally
unsafe to make either of these choices. That is, there is no
safe escape path available. To capture this, we instead propose
to independently evaluate the probabilities Pr{α1 > αlim
1 } and
Pr{α2 > αlim
2 } using the marginal densities p(α1) and p(α2),
as shown in Fig. 4.
To summarize, by evaluating the measures independently
from each other, the situation is correctly classified as critical.
The same reasoning is applicable when determining whether
both the driver and the system judge the situation as critical.
Since the driver and the CA system may have different capabil-
ities to avoid an accident, e.g., by performing different types of
actions, the two actors will assess the situation independently
from each other and make separate decisions on whether the
situation is critical or not. For example, the CA system may
only be able to brake, whereas the driver may both steer, brake,
and accelerate.
C. System Hypothesis
For the CA system hypothesis, we propose to assess the
danger in a situation by calculating a set of nc measures,
{α1, . . . , αnc
}, describing how difficult it is for a CA system to
avoid a collision. Each measure αi is calculated by a function
designed for a particular type of evasive action, e.g., emergency
braking, as shown in the following:
αi
Δ
= gc
i xh
k, Xt
k:k+N i = 1, . . . , nc (7)
BRÄNNSTRÖM et al.: PROBABILISTIC FRAMEWORK FOR DECISION-MAKING IN CA SYSTEMS 641
where xh
k describes the host vehicle state at time k, and
Xt
k:k+N = {xt
k, xt
k+1, . . . , xt
k+N } is the future trajectory of
all other objects between time k and k + N. In the tracking
literature, these objects are denoted as targets, a term we use
when it is needed for clarity. Function gc
i is assumed to be
known, as discussed earlier and exemplified in Section V-B.
Given an initial state xt
k, we assume that Xt
k+1:k+N can be
described using a known statistical model
Xt
k+1:k+N = fc xt
k, wc
k (8)
where wc
k is a noise process describing the uncertainty in the
motion of the objects.
The situation is assessed as critical in the system hypothesis
if it is estimated that the system is running out of options
to safely avoid an accident. That is, if each type of evasive
action by the system is separately assessed as too risky or too
difficult to perform with respect to the measure αi. Using the
expressions in (7), a critical situation is detected if
αi > αlim
i ∀i = 1 . . . nc (9)
where {αlim
i }nc
i=1 are feature specific design parameters typi-
cally specifying some critical limit of the measure. The clear
advantage of this approach is that the design parameters can
be related to physical properties, such as desired speed reduc-
tion for a collision mitigation system when evaluating TTC.
Additionally, different features can set different thresholds de-
pending on timing and intrusiveness of the intervention, e.g., a
warning feature can have a lower threshold than an autonomous
braking feature.
Using (9), the CA system hypotheses introduced in (6) can
be defined as
Hc
0
nc
i=1 ≤ αlim
i
Hc
1
nc
i=1 > αlim
i
(10)
where Hc
1 is true if all physical measures are above their
respective thresholds. Since each measure represents a specific
type of evasive action, separate decisions are made on each
measure, and all are required to be true for there to be a
critical situation. As such, the fact that one measure assesses
the situation as very critical has limited effect on the total
assessment of the situation. For example, if the CA system
needs to use all available friction to safely avoid a collision by
steering to the left, the situation is still not assessed as critical
if the system can easily avoid an accident by autonomously
braking and/or steering to the right.
D. Driver Hypothesis
To evaluate the driver’s criticality assessment, we propose to
model the probabilities for Hd
0 and Hd
1 as defined in (5) and use
the decision rule (44) in the Appendix to determine whether
the driver judges the situation as critical or not. Similarly, as
for the general threat assessment discussed in Section IV-C, we
assume that the driver’s sense of criticality can be assessed by
evaluating a set of physical measures. Modeling driver behavior
and sense of criticality is a difficult task. Note that the presented
model is quite simple and only aims at capturing some aspects
of the driver’s sense of criticality. Other aspects such as the
mood of the driver are not modeled in this framework.
The driver uses his or her eyes and ears to make observations
regarding the current traffic situation. Based on these observa-
tions, the driver is assumed to draw conclusions regarding the
current state of the host vehicle, which is denoted as zh
k, and
that of all other vehicles, which is denoted as zt
k. Additionally,
the driver is assumed to make predictions of the future states
of the observed objects. Let us denote N samples of this
future trajectory as Zt
k:k+N = {zt
k, zt
k+1, . . . , zt
k+N }. Using
these (stochastic) variables, we propose to model the driver’s
“threat assessment” of the traffic situation using nd physical
measures, denoted as β1−nd
, which are described as
βi
Δ
= gd
i zh
k, Zt
k:k+N , i = 1, . . . , nd. (11)
Each measure βi corresponds to a specific type of evasive
action by the driver, e.g., accelerating or a combined braking
and steering action. The driver model judges the situation as
critical if
βi > βlim
i ∀i = 1 . . . nd. (12)
That is, the driver is assumed to judge the situation as critical if
the driver has run out of options and cannot find a safe escape
path. The sets {βlim
i }nd
i=1 are driver specific parameters that may
be tuned with respect to a specific intervention type, e.g., a
warning or an emergency brake intervention. These parameters
are typically connected to the driver’s safety margins, e.g., an
aggressive driver may be modeled using one set of values,
whereas a cautious driver is better modeled using a different
set. Using (12), the driver criticality hypotheses defined in (5)
can be expressed mathematically as
Hd
0
nd
i=1 βi ≤ βlim
i
Hd
1
nd
i=1 βi > βlim
i .
(13)
The driver’s perception of the current and future traffic situa-
tions is typically not known to the CA system. Instead, to be
able to evaluate (11), we propose to use probabilistic driver
models to capture the driver’s perceived uncertainty in zh
k and
Zt
k:k+N based on the driver’s observations. We assume these
models can be written on the following form:
zh
k = qh
Xh
1:k, vh
k (14)
zt
k = qt
Xt
1:k, vt
k (15)
Zt
k+1:k+N = fd zt
k, wt
k (16)
where (14) and (15) model how the driver perceives the host
vehicle state and target states, respectively, and (16) describes
how the driver predicts that the states of the other objects will
evolve over time. Each model includes a noise process, denoted
as vh
k , vt
k, and wd
k, capturing the driver’s uncertainty in the
current traffic situation and the future trajectories of the other
objects.
642 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS, VOL. 14, NO. 2, JUNE 2013
E. Decision-Making
In order for the CA system to make a decision of an
autonomous intervention, we propose to make two separate
decisions, both of which need to be true. The first is to decide
if a significant intervention is needed to autonomously avoid
a collision [see (10)], and the second is to decide if the driver
will accept the intervention [see (13)]. However, to be able to
evaluate (10) and (13) deterministically, the system needs to
fully know the state of the host vehicle and the current and
future states of all other vehicles, even the driver’s perception
thereof. Instead, we propose to use a probabilistic decision
framework incorporating statistical models to describe system
uncertainties.
To use the decision methodology detailed in the Appendix,
we need to calculate the probabilities of hypotheses (5) and (6)
using the models that we have defined and the observations that
have been collected. We start by deriving the expressions for
deciding whether an intervention is needed or not.
1) System Criticality Decision: Using the decision rule (44),
the event that the situation is judged as critical according to the
ith measure can be written as the Boolean expression, i.e.,
Dc
i
Δ
=
Pr αi > αlim
i |Y1:k
Pr αi ≤ αlim
i |Y1:k
> cc
i (17)
where cc
i is a threshold for indicating how certain the CA
system needs to be that there actually is a threat according to
the ith measure. Note that, an autonomous intervention is only
initiated if it is also assessed that the driver also judges the
situation as critical. The thresholds in (17) could be tuned such
that it requires only a small probability that αi > αlim
i without
causing undesired interventions.
The probability expressions in (17) can be calculated as
Pr αi > αlim
i |Y1:k
= E I gc
i xh
k, Xt
k:k+N > αlim
i |Y1:k (18)
where I{·} is an indicator that is one if the expression inside
the braces is true and zero if otherwise. Note that (18) can be
calculated using the motion model (8) and the posterior pdf, i.e.,
p(xh
k, xt
k|Y1:k), from the tracking system. The probability that
the ith measure is below its limit is 1 − Pr{αi > αlim
i |Y1:k},
following the law of total probability.
Finally, the system decides whether the situation is critical or
not by evaluating all nc measures using (17) and forming the
joint event, i.e.,
Dc
Δ
=
nc
i=1
Dc
i . (19)
The system deems that an imminent intervention is needed if
(19) is true.
2) Driver Criticality Decision: Similar to when the CA
system assesses the criticality of a situation, we propose to
model the driver’s criticality assessment by evaluating the nd
measures defined in (11) according to (12). Given the driver
models (14)–(16), the driver’s decision that there is a threat
according to the ith measure can then be modeled as
Dd
i
Δ
=
Pr βi > βlim
i |Xh
1:k, Xt
1:k
Pr βi ≤ βlim
i |Xh
1:k, Xt
1:k
> cd
i (20)
where cd
i is a threshold for indicating that the driver experiences
the situation as critical with respect to the ith measure. The
probabilities in (20) can be calculated as
Pr βi > βlim
i |Xh
1:k, Xt
1:k
= E I gd
i zh
k, Zt
k:k+N > βlim
i |Xh
1:k, Xt
1:k (21)
where the expected value is found using the driver models
(14)–(16).
Similarly, as for the threat assessment of the CA system, the
driver assesses the situation on a whole as critical only if the
situation is critical with respect to all nd measures, i.e.,
Dd
Δ
=
nd
i=1
Dd
i (22)
in which case, the driver accepts an intervention.
However, for the CA system to be able to assess the driver
acceptance, i.e., evaluate (22), it needs to marginalize the states
Xh
1:k and Xt
1:k from the expression using the observations
Y1:k. Consequently, the CA system makes the decision as
˜Dd
Δ
=
Pr {Dd|Y1:k}
Pr {¬Dd|Y1:k}
> ˜cd
(23)
where
Pr {Dd|Y1:k} = E I Dd Xh
1:k, Xt
1:k |Y1:k (24)
and ˜cd
is a threshold specifying how certain the CA system
needs to be that the driver judges the situation as critical, given
its uncertainty in Xh
1:k and Xt
1:k.
3) Autonomous Intervention Decision: In order for the sys-
tem to make an autonomous intervention, it must judge that the
driver accepts the intervention and that the situation is critical.
As such, the decision to intervene or not is given by
D
Δ
= ˜Dd Dc. (25)
In sum, this concludes the presentation of our proposed
probabilistic decision-making framework treating both state
and prediction uncertainty when considering both the driver’s
acceptance of an intervention, i.e., ˜Dd, and the criticality of the
situation from the CA system’s perspective Dc.
V. MODELING CHOICES
To evaluate the probabilistic decision framework, we need
to make assumptions and specific choices regarding the models
introduced earlier. Here, we present one such possible set of
choices that we use to evaluate the framework in this paper.
These choices illustrate that the framework has appealing prop-
erties even under simple modeling assumptions, which leaves
room for further improvement on threat assessment and driver
BRÄNNSTRÖM et al.: PROBABILISTIC FRAMEWORK FOR DECISION-MAKING IN CA SYSTEMS 643
Fig. 5. State representation in a Cartesian coordinate system. The radius of
turn Rk is defined as positive when the road user is turning to the left.
acceptance modeling. The selected state representation is given
in Section V-A, whereas Section V-B presents one possible
choice of threat assessment measures αi [see (7)], an object
prediction model fc [see (8)], and criticality limits αlim
i [see
(9)]. Additionally, Section V-C presents a model of the driver’s
perception qh
and qt
[see (14) and (15)], his object trajectory
predictions fd [see (16)], threat measures βi [see (11)], and
criticality limits βlim
i , [see (12)].
A. State Representation
We choose to have the same state representation for all
objects in xt
k and for the host vehicle xh
k here represented by
a generic state vector as follows:
xk = [xk yk Ψk vk ck ˙vk]T
. (26)
In (26), (xk, yk) is the road user’s position in the ground-fixed
Cartesian coordinate system; Ψk is the heading angle; vk is the
object’s speed over ground; ck = 1/Rk is the current curvature
of the trajectory, where Rk is the radius of turn; and ˙vk is the
longitudinal acceleration. The instantaneous center of motion
is perpendicular to the heading angle at a fixed distance d from
the front end of an object of length L and width W, as shown
in Fig. 5. These three measures are assumed to be deterministic
and known.
It is assumed that the system’s uncertainty in host vehicle
state xh
k is negligible, i.e., the state is assumed to be fully known
and independent of the states of the other objects. Furthermore,
it is assumed that the information regarding the other objects
coming from the sensor fusion system is described using a
Gaussian density xt
k ∼ N(¯xt
k, Pt
k).
B. Threat Assessment
In the framework presented in Section IV, the threat assess-
ment algorithm gc
i is required to be able to estimate the threat
measures αi for any host vehicle state xh
k and any obstacle
trajectory Xt
k:k+N that can be given by the path prediction fc,
[see (7) and (8)]. One such algorithm is proposed in [11], where
four threat measures are used to describe the criticality of a
traffic situation. These measures are denoted as
α1−4 = {αbrake, αaccel, αleft, αright} (27)
which represent the fraction of the available tire-to-road friction
that the CA system needs to utilize to avoid a collision with
a single object by either braking, accelerating, or passing the
object by turning either to the left or to the right, respectively.
Fig. 6. Algorithm estimates how a collision with a single object can be
avoided during a limited prediction horizon k : k + N. Acceleration, steering
left, braking, and steering right are considered potential evasive maneuvers.
These options are shown in Fig. 6. The criticality limits [see (9)]
are denoted as
αlim
1−4 = αlim
brake, αlim
accel, αlim
left, αlim
right . (28)
Since even a short summary of the algorithm would cover
several pages, the interested reader is referred to [11] for a
description on how to estimate the measures α1−4.
If there are multiple objects present, the threat of each
object is evaluated separately. Only the object with the highest
threat level is kept for further analysis and decision-making for
interventions. Clearly, the threat of the situation as a whole
may be higher than the highest threat of a single object, but
this problem is not treated in [11]. However, it shall be noted
that the proposed decision-making framework is applicable in
multiobject scenarios if a multiobject threat assessment algo-
rithm is available. In the continuation of this paper, as the
threat assessment is performed independently for each object,
we assume that there is only one object in xt
k.
The future trajectory of the other objects may be given by
any suitable prediction model fc; as such, we propose to use a
so-called bicycle model [18], i.e.,
xt
k+i = xt
k+i−1 +
⎡
⎢
⎢
⎢
⎢
⎢
⎢
⎣
cos Ψt
k+i−1 vt
k+i−1
sin Ψt
k+i−1 vt
k+i−1
vt
k+i−1 ct
k+i−1
˙vt
k+i−1
˙ct
k I {i ≤ Mc
˙c }
¨vt
k I {i ≤ Mc
¨v }
⎤
⎥
⎥
⎥
⎥
⎥
⎥
⎦
δt (29)
with the prediction horizon i = 1 . . . N. The time interval be-
tween any two samples is given by δt and the curvature rate
˙ct
k, and the longitudinal jerk ¨vt
k is modeled as a noise process
given by
˙ct
k
¨vt
k
∼ N(0, Qc). (30)
For simplicity, the time intervals Mc
˙c and Mc
¨v , during which
the curvature rate and the longitudinal jerk are applied, re-
spectively, are assumed to be known. The predicted motion
given by (29) corresponds to the common maneuver of applying
a constant steering-wheel angle rate followed by a constant
steering-wheel angle [19]. The longitudinal motion is given
by a constant jerk followed by a constant acceleration, where
decelerating objects are predicted to eventually come to a
complete stop rather than changing direction.
644 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS, VOL. 14, NO. 2, JUNE 2013
Fig. 7. Contrary to the driver, observing the world with his eyes, the driver
model observes the world through a sensor fusion system.
C. Driver as a CA System
We argue that most drivers are aware that they have a limited
ability to perceive and predict the motion of road users and that
this is considered when planning maneuvers. Consequently, if
we assume that a driver desires to avoid collisions, the driver
(consciously or subconsciously) needs to:
1) observe both stationary objects and other road users;
2) make predictions of road user trajectories;
3) plan safe maneuvers considering these predictions.
These three objectives motivate that the driver can be modeled
as a CA system, consisting of:
1) a tracking system (i.e., the driver’s eyes or perception),
given by qh
and qt
[see (14) and (15)];
2) a prediction model fd [see (16)];
3) a threat assessment algorithm gd
i [see (11)].
The driver observes the real world directly to judge whether
a traffic situation is critical or not. Similarly, the driver model
observes the world through a sensor fusion system, as shown
in Fig. 7.
1) Driver’s Perception: Many studies claim that looming,
i.e., when an observed object becomes increasingly larger on
the perceiver’s retina, is one of the most important cues that
drivers observe when making decisions on when to brake [20],
[21]. Drivers have great difficulties to perceive small looming
changes [22], [23] and may hence find it hard to estimate the
acceleration of an object. Experience and the context may also
play a role in the driver’s perception of other road users.
The modeling of human perception is not an easy task, but
promising attempts have been made, e.g., by using machine
vision to estimate the probability that a pedestrian has been
detected by the driver [24]. Many more studies are needed
to obtain a more complete human perception model. To limit
the scope of our analysis in Section VII, we assume that
drivers only have difficulties in perceiving the longitudinal
acceleration of other road users, whereas position, size, and
velocity estimates are accurate. This basic assumption is partly
supported by [25], which shows that human perception of an
object’s velocity is much more accurate than the perception of
its acceleration. To conclude, the driver’s perception [see (14)
and (15)] is modeled as
zh
k = qh
Xh
1:k, vh
k = xh
k (31)
zt
k = qt
Xt
1:k, vt
k = xt
k + vt
k (32)
vt
k = [0 00 0 0 va]T
, va ∼ N 0, σ2
a . (33)
2) Driver’s Path Prediction: The driver’s prediction fd of
an object’s future trajectory Zt
k:k+N [see (16)] is given by the
same prediction model that the system uses [see (29)] with zt
k as
input, instead of xt
k. For simplicity, the prediction uncertainty
is assumed to originate solely for the driver’s uncertainty in the
object’s acceleration. Hence, the process noise is wd
k = 0, and
the time intervals in (29) are set to Md
˙c = Md
¨v = 0.
3) Driver’s Threat Assessment: Since the driver is modeled
as a CA system, the driver’s threat assessment is given by gd
i =
gc
i , i.e., the same algorithm that was used for estimating the
threat measures αi can now be used for estimating the driver’s
threat measures as
β1−4 = {βbrake, βaccel, βleft, βright}. (34)
The only difference is that the input to the driver’s threat assess-
ment gd
i is given by the driver’s observations zh
k and predictions
Zt
k:k+N . The driver’s criticality limits (12) are denoted as
βlim
1−4 = βlim
brake, βlim
accel, βlim
left, βlim
right . (35)
4) Driver Acceptability for Interventions: To summarize:
An intervention is justified if the driver, modeled as a
CA system, judges that the traffic situation is critical with
respect to all threat measures β1−4 at the time k when an
intervention is triggered [see (20)].
In case the driver is distracted, we assume that once an
intervention is triggered, the driver will shortly observe the
threat and thus be able to judge whether the intervention was
motivated or not.
VI. IMPLEMENTATION
Here, the expressions needed to implement the decision-
making framework presented in Section IV, using the modeling
choices and assumptions introduced in Section V, are derived.
A. Probability Approximations
The probabilistic decision-making framework presented in
Section IV basically consists of evaluating probability ratios.
These calculations involve solving integrals [calculating the ex-
pectations in (18), (21), and (24)], which rarely have analytical
solutions, which is also the case for the nonlinear models used
in this paper. Instead, we resort to approximative solutions.
To arrive at a computationally tractable solution, we pro-
pose to use a grid of deterministically chosen sample (grid)
points with associated weights to approximate the integral
as a weighted sum of evaluation. That is, the probability of
an event E that is dependent on a stochastic variable x is
approximated as
Pr{E} = E [I {E(x)}] ≈
L
i=1
wiI E x(i)
(36)
where {x(i)
}L
i=1 are the deterministically chosen sample points,
and wi ∝ p(x(i)
). Since, according to the modeling choices
and assumptions that we made in Section V, there is only
uncertainty regarding xt
k, wc
k, and vt
k, we only need to choose
sample points to evaluate in these dimensions. We evaluate the
criticality and driver acceptance decision separately.
BRÄNNSTRÖM et al.: PROBABILISTIC FRAMEWORK FOR DECISION-MAKING IN CA SYSTEMS 645
B. Criticality Decision
The criticality decision is governed by event probabilities on
the form of (18). To approximate these using the grid method,
we construct an augmented state ˜xt
k = [(xt
k)T
(wc
k)T
]T
that is
distributed as
˜xt
k ∼ N
¯xt
k
0
,
Pt
k 0
0 Qc
. (37)
From (37), L = 49 grid points are selected as the union of three
sigma point sets generated using the unscented transform with
κ = {0, 1 − m, 1 − m/3}, respectively, where m is the length
of ˜xt
k. The interpretation of κ is explained, e.g., in [26]. Let us
denote this grid point set as
wx
j , ˜x
t,(j)
k
L
j=1
(38)
where wx
j ∝ p(˜x
t,(j)
k ), as defined by (37). Each grid point in
(38) is then propagated through the motion model (29) to form
the transformed grid point set {wx
j , X
t,(j)
k:k+N }L
j=1. The sought
probabilities can now be approximated as
Pr{E|Y1:k} = E I E xh
t , Xt
k:k+N |Y1:k
≈
L
j=1
wx
i I E xh
t , X
t,(j)
k:k+N (39)
for the events E = {gc
i (xh
k, Xt
k:k+N ) > αlim
i }, where i ∈ [1, 4].
C. Driver Acceptance Decision
The evaluation of the driver acceptance is performed in two
steps, as described in (20) and (23). We start by evaluating
the driver’s sense of criticality, as described in (20), by finding
solutions to probabilities on the form of (21).
For a given xh
k and xt
k, these probabilities are easily ap-
proximated using the grid method. The proposed driver model,
defined in (31) and (32), stipulates that the driver only has
added uncertainty regarding the longitudinal acceleration of the
other object. To account for this added uncertainty, M = 3 grid
points in va ∼ N(0, σ2
a) are chosen in the same manner as the
unscented transform with κ = 2/3. Let us denote this grid point
set as
wz
l , v(l)
a
M
l=1
(40)
where wz
l ∝ p(v
(l)
a ). From (40), grid points representing the
uncertainty in the driver’s perception zt
k are obtained by ap-
pending these grid points to xt
k according to (32) as
wz
l , qt
xt
k, v
t,(l)
k
M
l=1
. (41)
Propagating the points in (41) through the prediction model in
(29) yields a transformed grid point set {wz
l , Z
t,(l)
k:k+N }M
l=1, from
which the probabilities on the form of (21) can be approximated
in the same manner as (36), and the decision in (20) and (22)
can be evaluated.
Fig. 8. Collision scenarios with a lead vehicle, a playing child, a trash can,
and a turning vehicle. (bottom) The arrows in the rear-end collision scenario
illustrate scenarios with and without an evasive maneuver by the host vehicle.
TABLE I
PARAMETER SETTING
For the CA system to assess the driver’s acceptance of an in-
tervention, the system’s uncertainty in xt
k needs to be accounted
for. Using the method explained earlier, the decision in (22) can
be evaluated for a given xt
k. Again, choosing a set of L = 37
grid points in xt
k ∼ N(¯xt
k, Pt
k) using the same procedure used
to generate (38).1
The probabilities on the form of (24) can
now be approximated by evaluating the driver acceptance, as
described earlier, by inserting each grid point in xt
k into (41).
VII. RESULTS
Here, the decision-making framework is applied to the col-
lision scenarios shown in Fig. 8, using the grid based imple-
mentation method in Section VI and the parameter setting in
Table I. To find a more suitable selection of the driver’s threat
thresholds βlim
i , it is suggested that extensive testing both in
field operational tests and on test tracks should be conducted,
but such studies are beyond the scope of this paper. In addition,
when estimating how difficult it is for the driver to steer or
brake to avoid a collision, it is assumed that the lateral jerk and
the longitudinal jerk do not exceed ±10 m/s3
and ±15 m/s3
,
respectively. The selected thresholds are ad hoc and serve only
to illustrate the properties of the framework.
In the examples, it is assumed that the CA system is equipped
with actuators only for automatic braking, whereas steering
or acceleration cannot be performed automatically. This is
indicated by the parameter values of the threat limits αlim
i ,
e.g., αlim
accel = 0 in Table I. The light gray area in Figs. 9–11
indicates when it is too late for the system to prevent a collision
by braking. In the graphs, it is assumed that the brake system
has a capacity of −10 m/s2
, a maximum deceleration rate of
−20 m/s3
, and an initial time delay of td = 0.05 s.
1 In practice, these grid points are chosen as a subset of the grid points in
(38), where the wc
k dimension is excluded}
646 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS, VOL. 14, NO. 2, JUNE 2013
Fig. 9. Graphs show the probability that the driver will accept (solid line)
brake intervention Pr{ ˜Dd|Y1:k} and (dashed line) the probability that the
situation is critical with respect to the CA system Pr{Dc|Y1:k}, for two
different scenarios. The dotted line shows the lateral acceleration (in [g]) of the
host vehicle. The star in Fig. 9(b) marks the time (t = 2 s) when the vehicles
collide since no evasive action is taken. In Fig. 9(a), at t ≈ 1.8 s, Pr{Dc|Y1:k}
rises because the host vehicle passes close to the lead vehicle while turning to
the right. (a) Rear-end collision scenario with an evasive steering maneuver.
(b) Rear-end collision scenario without an evasive steering maneuver.
Fig. 10. Graphs show (solid line) the probability that the driver will accept
a brake intervention Pr{ ˜Dd|Y1:k} and (dashed line) the probability that the
situation is critical with respect to the CA system Pr{Dc|Y1:k}, for two
different targets. The star marks the time (t = 2 s) when a collision occurs
if no evasive action is taken. When approaching the child, both Pr{ ˜Dd|Y1:k}
and Pr{Dc|Y1:k} rise above the decision thresholds cc
i and ˜cd(the dashed
thin horizontal line) while a collision is avoidable; thus, the CA system can use
automatic braking to prevent a collision without disturbing the driver. (a) Driver
is approaching a trash can at 50 km/h. (b) Driver is approaching a playing child
at 50 km/h.
Fig. 11. (Solid line) Probability that the driver accepts an interven-
tion, Pr{ ˜Dd|Y1:k}. (Dashed line) Probability that braking is needed,
Pr{Dc|Y1:k}, using data collected by a radar-based sensor fusion system. The
host vehicle (bottom) is approaching a turning vehicle (top). The star marks the
time (t = 2 s) when a collision occurs if no evasive action is taken.
A. Collision Scenarios on a Test Track
Results for an authentic rear-end collision scenario, using
recorded measurements, are presented in Fig. 9. For safety
reasons, the lead vehicle is represented by a soft inflatable car
(3 × 1.7 m), which is attached to a trolley driven by a wire
system at 50 km/h. The state of the soft car is estimated using
a differential GPS system, as described in [27]. Measurement
noise is added to obtain measurements representative of radar-
and camera-based sensor fusion systems (see Pt
k in Table I). In
the first test, a professional driver of the host vehicle approaches
the lead vehicle at 80 km/h and performs a late evasive steering
maneuver. Immediately prior to this maneuver, it can be seen
that the probability that the driver model judges the traffic sit-
uation as critical increases. However, the probability decreases
as soon as the driver initiates an evasive steering maneuver.
In the second test, the host vehicle drives straight into the lead
vehicle at 80 km/h without braking or steering. The results in
Fig. 9 show that the CA system can prevent an accident without
disturbing the driver with unnecessary braking by allowing an
intervention when the probability for acceptance is high, e.g.,
given the parameter setting in Table I.
B. Simulated Collision Scenarios
Fig. 10 shows simulated scenarios where the driver is ap-
proaching either a playing child or a trash can at 50 km/h. Both
objects are initially positioned directly in the host vehicle’s
path, and the child is standing still. The uncertainty in the
state estimate is given by the covariance matrix Pt
k in Table I.
The driver is assumed to have accurate estimates of the current
position of both objects and knows that the trash can will remain
stationary. In this example, it is assumed that the child only
can run back and forth across the road, where the driver’s
prediction of child’s future speed is bounded to the interval
±4 m/s. The results show that the estimated driver acceptance
for interventions is higher when approaching the child, as
compared with when approaching the trash can.
C. Collision Scenario Using Real Radar Data
In Fig. 11, the evaluation is performed for an intersection
collision scenario using a radar-based sensor fusion system. To
obtain realistic measurements, a real target vehicle was used.
The state estimates xt
k, Pt
k in the scenario displayed in Fig. 11
are provided by a tracker [28], using a further developed version
of the radar sensor model presented in [13]. The state of the host
vehicle was then simulated to drive at a higher speed (50 km/h)
than the actual speed, such that a collision situation was created
without endangering the drivers. The results indicate that the
CA systems potentially could be designed to autonomously
avoid, or at least mitigate, accidents in this common type of
accident scenario without disturbing the driver with unneces-
sary braking. A differential GPS system is used as reference to
estimate when a brake intervention no longer can be used to
avoid a collision (light gray area).
VIII. CONCLUSION
In this paper, we presented a probabilistic framework for
decision-making in CA systems. We introduced a simple model
for estimating if the driver perceives the situation as critical
enough to justify an intervention. The results show that the use
of this model has several appealing properties. Specifically, the
driver model enables the system to perform earlier interventions
in situations where the future trajectories of other road users
BRÄNNSTRÖM et al.: PROBABILISTIC FRAMEWORK FOR DECISION-MAKING IN CA SYSTEMS 647
are believed to be difficult for the driver to predict. Moreover,
the proposed framework formally handles both measurement
and prediction uncertainties both when estimating the driver
acceptance of an intervention and when estimating if the CA
system can prevent a collision.
APPENDIX
BAYESIAN DECISION-MAKING
Here, we summarize the basic Bayesian decision-making
theory used in this paper. More details can be found in [29].
Let there be two hypotheses: H0 and H1. Given some
observations y, we wish to make a decision regarding which
hypothesis is true. Let αi be the decision that hypothesis Hi
is the correct one and suppose that we can express loss λij =
L(αi|Hj) for making the decision αi given that the true state
is Hj. Risk R(αi|y) is defined as the expected loss associated
with a particular decision, i.e.,
R(αi|y) =
j=0,1
λi jPr{Hj|y}. (42)
The minimum risk is achieved by choosing H1 over H0 if
R(α1|y) < R(α0|y), i.e., if
p(y|H1)
p(y|H0)
>
(λ1 0 − λ0 0)
(λ0 1 − λ1 1)
Pr{H0}
Pr{H1}
. (43)
This is equivalent to evaluating the well-known likelihood ratio.
It may be convenient to evaluate the posterior probabilities
rather than the likelihood, e.g., in a particle filter implementa-
tion. Applying Bayes formula to the left-hand side of (43) gives
the following equivalent rule:
Pr{H1|y}
Pr{H0|y}
H1
≷
H0
λ1 0 − λ0 0
λ0 1 − λ1 1
= γ. (44)
The given relation suggests to choose H1 over H0 if the ratio
Pr{H1|y}/Pr{H0|y} exceeds threshold γ.
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vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 299–310, Jun. 2009.
[11] M. Brännström, E. Coelingh, and J. Sjöberg, “Model-based threat assess-
ment for avoiding arbitrary vehicle collisions,” IEEE Trans. Intell. Transp.
Syst., vol. 11, no. 3, pp. 658–669, Sep. 2010.
[12] J. McCall and M. Trivedi, “Driver behavior and situation aware brake
assistance for intelligent vehicles,” Proc. IEEE, vol. 95, no. 2, pp. 374–
387, Feb. 2007.
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object tracking using a radar resolution model,” IEEE Trans. Aerosp.
Electron. Syst., vol. 48, no. 3, pp. 2371–2386, Jul. 2012.
[14] J. Sorstedt, L. Svensson, F. Sandblom, and L. Hammarstrand, “A new
vehicle motion model for improved predictions and situation assessment,”
IEEE Trans. Intell. Transp. Syst., vol. 12, no. 4, pp. 1209–1219, Dec. 2011.
[15] T. Sattel and T. Brandt, “From robotics to automotive: Lane-keeping and
collision avoidance based on elastic bands,” Veh. Syst. Dyn., vol. 46, no. 7,
pp. 597–619, Jul. 2008.
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IEEE Intell. Veh. Symp., 2008, pp. 1149–1154.
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ability analysis and set invariance theory,” IEEE Trans. Intell. Transp.
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ear transformations of probability distributions,” Dept. Eng. Sci., Univ.
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Chalmers Univ. Technol., Landala, Sweden, Tech. Rep., Apr. 2008.
[29] R. Duda, P. Hart, and D. Stork, Pattern Classification, 2nd ed. New York:
Wiley, 2001.
Mattias Brännström received the M.Sc. degree in
engineering physics from Chalmers University of
Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden, in 2004. He is
currently working toward the Ph.D. degree with the
Department of Signals and Systems, Chalmers Uni-
versity of Technology.
He is currently doing research with the Depart-
ment of Safety Electronics and Functions, Volvo
Car Corporation, Gothenburg. His research interests
include active safety and autonomous driving, par-
ticularly threat assessment and decision-making in
collision avoidance systems.
648 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS, VOL. 14, NO. 2, JUNE 2013
Fredrik Sandblom was born in Mölndal, Sweden,
in 1979. He received the M.S. degree in electrical
engineering and the Ph.D. degree from Chalmers
University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden, in
2004 and 2011, respectively.
He has been with Volvo Group Trucks Technol-
ogy, Gothenburg, since 2005, working with active
safety systems, and now holds the position of Senior
Technology Specialist. His research interests include
object tracking and sensor data fusion, particularly
methods for estimating statistical moments and their
application to recursive filtering.
Lars Hammarstrand was born in Landvetter,
Sweden, in 1979. He received the M.Sc. and Ph.D.
degrees in electrical engineering from Chalmers Uni-
versity of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden, in 2004
and 2010, respectively.
From 2004 to 2011, he was with the Department
of Active Safety and Chassis, Volvo Car Corporation,
Gothenburg, conducting research on tracking and
sensor data fusion methods for active safety systems.
He is currently a Postdoctoral Research Fellow with
the Signal Processing Group, Chalmers University
of Technology, where his main research interests include estimation, sensor
fusion, and radar sensor modeling, particularly with application to active safety
systems.

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Ieeepro techno solutions 2013 ieee embedded project decision making in collision avoidance systems

  • 1. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS, VOL. 14, NO. 2, JUNE 2013 637 A Probabilistic Framework for Decision-Making in Collision Avoidance Systems Mattias Brännström, Fredrik Sandblom, and Lars Hammarstrand Abstract—This paper is concerned with the problem of deci- sion-making in systems that assist drivers in avoiding collisions. An important aspect of these systems is not only assisting the driver when needed but also not disturbing the driver with unnec- essary interventions. Aimed at improving both of these properties, a probabilistic framework is presented for jointly evaluating the driver acceptance of an intervention and the necessity thereof to automatically avoid a collision. The intervention acceptance is modeled as high if it estimated that the driver judges the situation as critical, based on the driver’s observations and predictions of the traffic situation. One advantage with the proposed framework is that interventions can be initiated at an earlier stage when the estimated driver acceptance is high. Using a simplified driver model, the framework is applied to a few different types of collision scenarios. The results show that the framework has appealing properties, both with respect to increasing the system benefit and to decreasing the risk of unnecessary interventions. Index Terms—Automotive safety, collision avoidance (CA), decision-making, driver modeling, threat assessment. I. INTRODUCTION ROAD traffic accidents are one of the world’s largest public health problems. In the European Union alone, traffic accidents cause approximately 1.8 million injuries and 43 000 fatalities each year [1]. To reduce these numbers, vehicle manufacturers are developing systems that can detect hazardous traffic situations and actively assist road users in avoiding or mitigating accidents. Systems that assist drivers in avoiding collisions are becoming increasingly more common and are even being introduced as standard equipment in some passenger cars [2]. Collision avoidance (CA) systems can generally be divided into three layers, as shown in Fig. 1. Measurements from on- board sensors, such as accelerometers, cameras, and radars, are processed in the first layer and then interpreted in the second layer, which makes decisions on when and how to Manuscript received December 13, 2011; revised May 14, 2012 and September 14, 2012; accepted October 19, 2012. Date of publication December 5, 2012; date of current version May 29, 2013. This work was supported by the Swedish National Road Authorities through the Strategic Vehicle Research and Innovation Program and through the Intelligent Vehicle Safety Systems Program. The Associate Editor for this paper was H. Dia. M. Brännström is with the Department of Safety Electronics and Func- tions, Volvo Car Corporation, Gothenburg 405 31, Sweden (e-mail: mattias. brannstrom@volvocars.com). F. Sandblom is with the Department of Safety Functions & Electronics, Volvo Group Trucks Technology, Gothenburg 405 08, Sweden (e-mail: fredrik. sandblom.2@volvo.com). L. Hammarstrand is with the Department of Signals and Systems, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg 412 96, Sweden (e-mail: lars. hammarstrand@chalmers.se). Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/TITS.2012.2227474 Fig. 1. CA systems can be divided into three layers. This paper focuses on decision-making strategies in the presence of measurement and prediction uncertainties. The framework is applied to a threat assessment algorithm and a model that estimates if the driver judges the situation as critical. These are jointly evaluated when making decisions for interventions. assist the driver. The third layer executes the decision, e.g., by automatically applying the brakes of the vehicle. The measurements contain random errors, and consequently, the vehicle and object state estimates that are obtained in the sensor fusion layer are associated with uncertainties. A threat assessment algorithm utilizes these estimates to make predic- tions of road-user trajectories. Based on these predictions, an assessment is performed to estimate if and how a potential accident can be prevented [3], [4]. Both the state estimates and the predictions are associated with uncertainties that need to be treated properly [5]. Moreover, to obtain a high customer acceptance, it is important that the system also accounts for the preferences of driver, such that the driver is not disturbed by the system during normal driving conditions [6], [7]. The aim of CA systems is to assist drivers in avoiding collisions with other road users and objects, without triggering interventions that the driver may consider unnecessary. Clearly, to autonomously avoid a collision, an intervention must be triggered while an accident is still avoidable. However, most collisions that can be avoided by CA systems possibly can also be avoided by a skilled driver. This implies that there is no way of telling whether the driver would have been able to handle the situation without the system intervening. That is, there is no objective measure available for judging whether an intervention was useful or whether the driver was disturbed by the system. It is only the driver of the vehicle that can decide whether an intervention was motivated or not. Hence, when making decisions on when the system shall take action, there is always a tradeoff between making a successful intervention and the risk of disturbing the driver. This highlights the need of in- corporating a driver model in the CA system, such that vehicle safety can be further improved by enabling earlier interventions in traffic situations that the driver judges as critical. 1524-9050/$31.00 © 2012 IEEE
  • 2. 638 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS, VOL. 14, NO. 2, JUNE 2013 This paper is concerned with decision-making in CA systems in the presence of uncertainties. Several probabilistic decision- making algorithms have previously been proposed, e.g., [3], [5], [8]–[10]. In these approaches, the risk of a false alarm is balanced with the confidence that an autonomous intervention is actually needed to avoid a collision. The term “false alarm” is, in these cases, typically defined as an intervention per- formed, although there would not have been a collision. From the driver’s point of view, however, a more relevant definition would be an intervention performed that the driver regarded as unnecessary. In this paper, we propose to simultaneously eval- uate the driver acceptance of an intervention and the necessity thereof, as shown in Fig. 1. To formally deal with uncertainties in measurements and predictions, we propose that decisions on when to assist the driver are made by taking a Bayesian approach to estimate the following: 1) how a collision can be avoided by an intervention; 2) the probability that the driver of the vehicle will consider the autonomous intervention as motivated. The framework enables interventions to be initiated at an earlier stage when there is a high probability that the driver will consider an intervention as justified. In this way, the benefit of CA systems can be increased without disturbing the driver of the vehicle. Moreover, to reduce the risk of the driver getting used to having interventions, and starting to rely too much on the system, interventions are not initiated until a significant action is needed to avoid a collision. To put the framework into context, a previously presented threat assessment algorithm is used as a base to assess how a collision with a single road user can be avoided [11]. Similar to [5], the framework enables this assessment to be performed in a probabilistic way, such that uncertainties in object state estimates and predictions are accounted for. More importantly, in contrast to previous research, the framework also estimates the driver’s perceived threat considering both the inherent measurement uncertainties as well as uncertainties within a model of the driver’s assessment of the traffic situation. To exemplify this, we introduce a simple model of the driver’s threat assessment and apply it in the proposed framework. This paper is organized as follows. Section II provides the motivation for this paper and shows that a small change in the decision timing can have a significant impact on the benefit of CA systems. Section III outlines the problem formula- tion and Section IV describes the decision-making framework. Section V presents the modeling choices made in the specific implementation used to evaluate the framework in this paper. Section VI describes, based on these modeling choices, how the decision-making framework can be realized. Results are presented in Section VII, where the realization is evaluated on a few different types of collision scenarios, using both simulated and authentic sensor measurements. Conclusions are presented in Section VIII. II. MOTIVATION Here, we describe how this paper is related to previous re- search on driver models and show, through an example, that sys- tem benefit is strongly affected by the timing of interventions. A. Related Literature Goodrich and Boer [6] propose that CA systems should account for not only the capabilities of the vehicle and the sensor system but also the autonomy and preferences of the driver. Benefit and cost functions are introduced to make decisions based on a tradeoff between the potential benefit of an intervention and the cost of disturbing the driver with an unnecessary intervention. Although the concept of using cost functions is appealing at first glance, this concept has some potential drawbacks that are pointed out, e.g., in [3]. For example, the cost of an unnecessary intervention may be difficult to define and relate to the benefit of avoiding a potential collision. Hence, the behavior of the CA system may be hard to predict, and the tuning of the system could become problematic. McCall and Trivedi [12] propose that the probability that the driver intends to apply the brakes shall be estimated and that interventions shall be inhibited if the driver intends to brake. The intent to brake is predicted by using a camera that monitors the driver’s pedal usage and a camera that monitors the driver’s face. Although a foot camera may be used to predict whether the driver intends to apply the brakes, it is probably difficult to predict whether the driver intends to steer. The driver may also be drowsy or cognitively distracted; in which case, the driver’s intent could be difficult to predict, even if the driver has placed a foot on the brake pedal. Moreover, in traffic situations where the driver intends to brake to avoid a collision, it is reasonable to assume that the driver may consider a brake intervention as motivated and, thus, as not disturbing. Rather than trying to solve the difficult problem of estimating the driver’s intent or the cost of disturbing the driver, the presented framework aims only to estimate whether the driver will consider an intervention as justified. In this way, driver autonomy can be maintained by only allowing the system to act when it is estimated that the driver has high acceptability for interventions. B. Impact As mentioned in Section I, one of the aims of this paper is to formulate a decision-making framework that can be used to im- prove the intervention timing of CA systems. What additional benefit is expected if the intervention timing is improved by a fraction of a second? This question is investigated through an example. Assume that a vehicle equipped with a CA system is driving at an initial speed v0 and that automatic emergency braking is initiated with a timing such that the speed is reduced to vc before colliding with a stationary object. How much earlier does the braking have to be initiated to fully avoid a collision? In all CA systems, the deceleration will eventually reach a constant value a and a collision is avoided if s = v2 c 2a (1) where extra meters are available to bring the host vehicle to a complete stop. The time to travel this distance, before braking
  • 3. BRÄNNSTRÖM et al.: PROBABILISTIC FRAMEWORK FOR DECISION-MAKING IN CA SYSTEMS 639 Fig. 2. Graph shows how much earlier the intervention of a CA system must be triggered to fully avoid a collision instead of colliding at an impact velocity vc. The three curves show the required timing improvement Δt for three different crash velocities vc = 20, 15, and 10 km/h, from top to bottom. Braking Δt s earlier fully avoids a collision with a stationary object by the smallest possible margin. The result is valid for braking on dry asphalt and is invariant to system time delays td and brake system ramp-up times tr within the range of most CA systems. is initiated, is Δt = s vo = v2 c 2av0 . (2) Consequently, by applying the brakes Δt s earlier, the required extra distance is gained, and the collision is avoided. The required timing change Δt as a function of the initial velocity v0 is shown in Fig. 2. For example, given the initial speed v0 = 15 m/s, the reduced impact speed vc = 4 m/s (i.e., 54 and 14 km/h), and that the vehicle is driven on dry asphalt (a = 10 m/s2 ), it is enough to brake Δt ≈ 0.05 s earlier to fully avoid an accident. To put this time into perspective, we will compare this time with the total intervention timing required for avoiding a collision. Assume that the autonomous brake system has an initial delay td before braking is applied and that it takes an additional time tr before full braking capacity a is reached. Furthermore, let tTTC be the time to collision (TTC) given that the vehicle speed is constant and braking is not applied. Then, a collision is fully avoided if braking is initiated at tavoid TTC = td + tr 2 + v0 2a (3) whereas the vehicle collides with an impact speed, i.e., vc = 2av0Δt (4) if the braking is delayed by Δts. For a typical CA system, td ≈ 0.05 s and tr ≈ 0.5 s, which in the example given earlier that a collision is fully avoided if braking is initiated at tavoid TTC = 1.05 s, whereas the vehicle collides at vc = 4 m/s if braking is applied at tmitigate TTC = tavoid TTC − Δt ≈ 1 s. Apparently, the required difference in timing to attain avoid- ance rather than mitigation can be very small. The reason for this is that the required distance s to bring the host vehicle to a complete stop from the reduced velocity vc is relatively short once a constant deceleration a has been reached [see (1)]. Consequently, the time Δt it takes to travel the short distance s before braking is initiated is small and decreases with increasing initial speed v0 [see (2)]. If the intervention timing can be improved just by a fraction of a second, then there is a high impact on the benefit of the system. Fig. 3. When making intervention decisions, the proposed framework treats uncertainties both in state estimates and in obstacle trajectories over a prediction horizon, as indicated by the light grey area in front of the car. The vehicle hosting the CA system can be represented by any type of automotive vehicle, e.g., a car, a motorcycle, or a truck, as shown in this scenario. III. PROBLEM FORMULATION Let xh k be a state vector representing the state, i.e., position, velocity, etc., at discrete time instance tk of a vehicle hosting a CA system. Similarly, let xt k be a state vector describing the state of all other objects of interest, e.g., other vehicles or pedestrians in the vicinity of the host vehicle. Given noisy observations on these states collected up to the current time tk, denoted as Y1:k, an intervention decision rule for avoiding acci- dents without disturbing the driver is desired. This decision rule should take into consideration that the state vectors themselves are not known to the CA system but, rather, only their posterior probability density function (pdf) p(xh k, xt k|Y1:k) calculated by the sensor fusion system [13] is known. IV. PROBABILISTIC DECISION-MAKING Here, we describe a probabilistic decision-making frame- work and aim at answering the following questions. 1) How can the risk of disturbing the driver be modeled? 2) What decision strategy is suitable when trajectory predic- tions of road users are associated with uncertainties? A robust decision rule in a CA system must treat several sources of uncertainties. First, there is an inherent uncertainty in the states xh k and xt k as they are observed using noisy and imperfect measurements. Second, to assess the danger in a situation, the system needs to make predictions regarding the unknown future, i.e., a task for which statistical models are well suited [14]. Both of these uncertainty sources, shown in Fig. 3, can be addressed by using a probabilistic approach to decision-making. A. Decision-Making Strategy As previously mentioned in Section I, we propose to si- multaneously evaluate the driver acceptance of an intervention and the necessity thereof. Furthermore, we propose to do so in a probabilistic decision framework considering two sets of hypotheses. The first set captures the driver acceptance (driver hypotheses). The second set describes the necessity for the CA system to initiate an autonomous intervention to autonomously avoid an accident (system hypotheses). This latter hypothesis
  • 4. 640 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS, VOL. 14, NO. 2, JUNE 2013 set is used to manage the risk that the driver gets used to having interventions and, hence, may start to rely on the fact that the system will avoid all accidents. When assessing the driver acceptance, we argue that the driver has a high acceptance for interventions if the driver judges the traffic situation as critical when an intervention is initiated. In situations where the driver is distracted, we argue that the driver will become alert if an intervention is triggered and hence be able to judge if the situation is critical or not. The two hypothesis sets are denoted as Hd 0 Driver judges the situation as not critical Hd 1 Driver judges the situation as critical (5) Hc 0 CA systems judges the situation as not critical Hc 1 CA systems judges the situation as critical (6) where the CA system only takes action if both Hd 1 is selected over Hd 0, and Hc 1 is selected over Hc 0. If the probability of these hypotheses can be calculated based on the information avail- able, i.e., Pr{Hd i |Y1:k} and Pr{Hc i |Y1:k}, the decision rule detailed in the Appendix can be used to choose one hypothesis over the other [see (44)]. Later, we derive the framework needed to make these decisions. For this, we need to define what a critical situation is. B. Criticality Assessment A vital component in a CA system is the ability to detect and assess the criticality of the current traffic situation, i.e., threat assessment. In the literature, there are many different approaches to do this, and good examples can be found in, e.g., [3], [9], [11], and [15]–[17]. Similar to many of these methods, we argue that a situation is judged as critical by an actor, i.e., to the driver or to the CA system, if the actor is unable to find a safe escape path. Let there be a set of n objective physical measures, denoted as {α1, . . . , αn}, describing the criticality of different types of potential evasive maneuvers by an actor. These measures could be based, e.g., on TTC metrics [5] or on the needed use of available tire-to-road friction to avoid an accident [11]. Each measure αi corresponds to a specific type of evasive action by the actor, e.g., emergency braking, passing to the side of the threat, or using a combined braking and steering maneuver. Maneuver i is defined as critical by the actor if the measure exceeds some limit, i.e., αi > αlim i . The situation as a whole is defined to be judged as critical if all of these measures, individually, are judged as critical. To put it differently, the situation is critical to the actor if the actor judges that there is no safe escape path. When assessing the measures, we argue that they should be evaluated in themselves, independently of all other measures, and not jointly as in many other applications. A short example illustrates when the latter approach fails to assess whether there is a safe escape path or not. Let a vehicle approach a pedestrian walking with constant speed across the road and let there be two measures α1 and α2 representing how difficult it is to pass either to the left or to the right of the pedestrian. If the actor does not know exactly how fast the pedestrian is walking, then α1 and α2 are correlated as shown by p(α1, α2) in Fig. 4. In prac- tice, this means that it is relatively easy to pass either to the left Fig. 4. Probability density p(α1, α2) for the measures α1 and α2 when approaching a pedestrian walking across the road. or to the right, depending on how fast the pedestrian is walking. That is, the probability that both measures jointly exceed their respective limits, i.e., Pr{α > αlim }, is very small, and under this measure, the situation would be classified as noncritical. However, the actor needs to actually make a choice of whether to steer to the left or to the right of the pedestrian, but being uncertain about the pedestrian’s walking speed, it is equally unsafe to make either of these choices. That is, there is no safe escape path available. To capture this, we instead propose to independently evaluate the probabilities Pr{α1 > αlim 1 } and Pr{α2 > αlim 2 } using the marginal densities p(α1) and p(α2), as shown in Fig. 4. To summarize, by evaluating the measures independently from each other, the situation is correctly classified as critical. The same reasoning is applicable when determining whether both the driver and the system judge the situation as critical. Since the driver and the CA system may have different capabil- ities to avoid an accident, e.g., by performing different types of actions, the two actors will assess the situation independently from each other and make separate decisions on whether the situation is critical or not. For example, the CA system may only be able to brake, whereas the driver may both steer, brake, and accelerate. C. System Hypothesis For the CA system hypothesis, we propose to assess the danger in a situation by calculating a set of nc measures, {α1, . . . , αnc }, describing how difficult it is for a CA system to avoid a collision. Each measure αi is calculated by a function designed for a particular type of evasive action, e.g., emergency braking, as shown in the following: αi Δ = gc i xh k, Xt k:k+N i = 1, . . . , nc (7)
  • 5. BRÄNNSTRÖM et al.: PROBABILISTIC FRAMEWORK FOR DECISION-MAKING IN CA SYSTEMS 641 where xh k describes the host vehicle state at time k, and Xt k:k+N = {xt k, xt k+1, . . . , xt k+N } is the future trajectory of all other objects between time k and k + N. In the tracking literature, these objects are denoted as targets, a term we use when it is needed for clarity. Function gc i is assumed to be known, as discussed earlier and exemplified in Section V-B. Given an initial state xt k, we assume that Xt k+1:k+N can be described using a known statistical model Xt k+1:k+N = fc xt k, wc k (8) where wc k is a noise process describing the uncertainty in the motion of the objects. The situation is assessed as critical in the system hypothesis if it is estimated that the system is running out of options to safely avoid an accident. That is, if each type of evasive action by the system is separately assessed as too risky or too difficult to perform with respect to the measure αi. Using the expressions in (7), a critical situation is detected if αi > αlim i ∀i = 1 . . . nc (9) where {αlim i }nc i=1 are feature specific design parameters typi- cally specifying some critical limit of the measure. The clear advantage of this approach is that the design parameters can be related to physical properties, such as desired speed reduc- tion for a collision mitigation system when evaluating TTC. Additionally, different features can set different thresholds de- pending on timing and intrusiveness of the intervention, e.g., a warning feature can have a lower threshold than an autonomous braking feature. Using (9), the CA system hypotheses introduced in (6) can be defined as Hc 0 nc i=1 ≤ αlim i Hc 1 nc i=1 > αlim i (10) where Hc 1 is true if all physical measures are above their respective thresholds. Since each measure represents a specific type of evasive action, separate decisions are made on each measure, and all are required to be true for there to be a critical situation. As such, the fact that one measure assesses the situation as very critical has limited effect on the total assessment of the situation. For example, if the CA system needs to use all available friction to safely avoid a collision by steering to the left, the situation is still not assessed as critical if the system can easily avoid an accident by autonomously braking and/or steering to the right. D. Driver Hypothesis To evaluate the driver’s criticality assessment, we propose to model the probabilities for Hd 0 and Hd 1 as defined in (5) and use the decision rule (44) in the Appendix to determine whether the driver judges the situation as critical or not. Similarly, as for the general threat assessment discussed in Section IV-C, we assume that the driver’s sense of criticality can be assessed by evaluating a set of physical measures. Modeling driver behavior and sense of criticality is a difficult task. Note that the presented model is quite simple and only aims at capturing some aspects of the driver’s sense of criticality. Other aspects such as the mood of the driver are not modeled in this framework. The driver uses his or her eyes and ears to make observations regarding the current traffic situation. Based on these observa- tions, the driver is assumed to draw conclusions regarding the current state of the host vehicle, which is denoted as zh k, and that of all other vehicles, which is denoted as zt k. Additionally, the driver is assumed to make predictions of the future states of the observed objects. Let us denote N samples of this future trajectory as Zt k:k+N = {zt k, zt k+1, . . . , zt k+N }. Using these (stochastic) variables, we propose to model the driver’s “threat assessment” of the traffic situation using nd physical measures, denoted as β1−nd , which are described as βi Δ = gd i zh k, Zt k:k+N , i = 1, . . . , nd. (11) Each measure βi corresponds to a specific type of evasive action by the driver, e.g., accelerating or a combined braking and steering action. The driver model judges the situation as critical if βi > βlim i ∀i = 1 . . . nd. (12) That is, the driver is assumed to judge the situation as critical if the driver has run out of options and cannot find a safe escape path. The sets {βlim i }nd i=1 are driver specific parameters that may be tuned with respect to a specific intervention type, e.g., a warning or an emergency brake intervention. These parameters are typically connected to the driver’s safety margins, e.g., an aggressive driver may be modeled using one set of values, whereas a cautious driver is better modeled using a different set. Using (12), the driver criticality hypotheses defined in (5) can be expressed mathematically as Hd 0 nd i=1 βi ≤ βlim i Hd 1 nd i=1 βi > βlim i . (13) The driver’s perception of the current and future traffic situa- tions is typically not known to the CA system. Instead, to be able to evaluate (11), we propose to use probabilistic driver models to capture the driver’s perceived uncertainty in zh k and Zt k:k+N based on the driver’s observations. We assume these models can be written on the following form: zh k = qh Xh 1:k, vh k (14) zt k = qt Xt 1:k, vt k (15) Zt k+1:k+N = fd zt k, wt k (16) where (14) and (15) model how the driver perceives the host vehicle state and target states, respectively, and (16) describes how the driver predicts that the states of the other objects will evolve over time. Each model includes a noise process, denoted as vh k , vt k, and wd k, capturing the driver’s uncertainty in the current traffic situation and the future trajectories of the other objects.
  • 6. 642 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS, VOL. 14, NO. 2, JUNE 2013 E. Decision-Making In order for the CA system to make a decision of an autonomous intervention, we propose to make two separate decisions, both of which need to be true. The first is to decide if a significant intervention is needed to autonomously avoid a collision [see (10)], and the second is to decide if the driver will accept the intervention [see (13)]. However, to be able to evaluate (10) and (13) deterministically, the system needs to fully know the state of the host vehicle and the current and future states of all other vehicles, even the driver’s perception thereof. Instead, we propose to use a probabilistic decision framework incorporating statistical models to describe system uncertainties. To use the decision methodology detailed in the Appendix, we need to calculate the probabilities of hypotheses (5) and (6) using the models that we have defined and the observations that have been collected. We start by deriving the expressions for deciding whether an intervention is needed or not. 1) System Criticality Decision: Using the decision rule (44), the event that the situation is judged as critical according to the ith measure can be written as the Boolean expression, i.e., Dc i Δ = Pr αi > αlim i |Y1:k Pr αi ≤ αlim i |Y1:k > cc i (17) where cc i is a threshold for indicating how certain the CA system needs to be that there actually is a threat according to the ith measure. Note that, an autonomous intervention is only initiated if it is also assessed that the driver also judges the situation as critical. The thresholds in (17) could be tuned such that it requires only a small probability that αi > αlim i without causing undesired interventions. The probability expressions in (17) can be calculated as Pr αi > αlim i |Y1:k = E I gc i xh k, Xt k:k+N > αlim i |Y1:k (18) where I{·} is an indicator that is one if the expression inside the braces is true and zero if otherwise. Note that (18) can be calculated using the motion model (8) and the posterior pdf, i.e., p(xh k, xt k|Y1:k), from the tracking system. The probability that the ith measure is below its limit is 1 − Pr{αi > αlim i |Y1:k}, following the law of total probability. Finally, the system decides whether the situation is critical or not by evaluating all nc measures using (17) and forming the joint event, i.e., Dc Δ = nc i=1 Dc i . (19) The system deems that an imminent intervention is needed if (19) is true. 2) Driver Criticality Decision: Similar to when the CA system assesses the criticality of a situation, we propose to model the driver’s criticality assessment by evaluating the nd measures defined in (11) according to (12). Given the driver models (14)–(16), the driver’s decision that there is a threat according to the ith measure can then be modeled as Dd i Δ = Pr βi > βlim i |Xh 1:k, Xt 1:k Pr βi ≤ βlim i |Xh 1:k, Xt 1:k > cd i (20) where cd i is a threshold for indicating that the driver experiences the situation as critical with respect to the ith measure. The probabilities in (20) can be calculated as Pr βi > βlim i |Xh 1:k, Xt 1:k = E I gd i zh k, Zt k:k+N > βlim i |Xh 1:k, Xt 1:k (21) where the expected value is found using the driver models (14)–(16). Similarly, as for the threat assessment of the CA system, the driver assesses the situation on a whole as critical only if the situation is critical with respect to all nd measures, i.e., Dd Δ = nd i=1 Dd i (22) in which case, the driver accepts an intervention. However, for the CA system to be able to assess the driver acceptance, i.e., evaluate (22), it needs to marginalize the states Xh 1:k and Xt 1:k from the expression using the observations Y1:k. Consequently, the CA system makes the decision as ˜Dd Δ = Pr {Dd|Y1:k} Pr {¬Dd|Y1:k} > ˜cd (23) where Pr {Dd|Y1:k} = E I Dd Xh 1:k, Xt 1:k |Y1:k (24) and ˜cd is a threshold specifying how certain the CA system needs to be that the driver judges the situation as critical, given its uncertainty in Xh 1:k and Xt 1:k. 3) Autonomous Intervention Decision: In order for the sys- tem to make an autonomous intervention, it must judge that the driver accepts the intervention and that the situation is critical. As such, the decision to intervene or not is given by D Δ = ˜Dd Dc. (25) In sum, this concludes the presentation of our proposed probabilistic decision-making framework treating both state and prediction uncertainty when considering both the driver’s acceptance of an intervention, i.e., ˜Dd, and the criticality of the situation from the CA system’s perspective Dc. V. MODELING CHOICES To evaluate the probabilistic decision framework, we need to make assumptions and specific choices regarding the models introduced earlier. Here, we present one such possible set of choices that we use to evaluate the framework in this paper. These choices illustrate that the framework has appealing prop- erties even under simple modeling assumptions, which leaves room for further improvement on threat assessment and driver
  • 7. BRÄNNSTRÖM et al.: PROBABILISTIC FRAMEWORK FOR DECISION-MAKING IN CA SYSTEMS 643 Fig. 5. State representation in a Cartesian coordinate system. The radius of turn Rk is defined as positive when the road user is turning to the left. acceptance modeling. The selected state representation is given in Section V-A, whereas Section V-B presents one possible choice of threat assessment measures αi [see (7)], an object prediction model fc [see (8)], and criticality limits αlim i [see (9)]. Additionally, Section V-C presents a model of the driver’s perception qh and qt [see (14) and (15)], his object trajectory predictions fd [see (16)], threat measures βi [see (11)], and criticality limits βlim i , [see (12)]. A. State Representation We choose to have the same state representation for all objects in xt k and for the host vehicle xh k here represented by a generic state vector as follows: xk = [xk yk Ψk vk ck ˙vk]T . (26) In (26), (xk, yk) is the road user’s position in the ground-fixed Cartesian coordinate system; Ψk is the heading angle; vk is the object’s speed over ground; ck = 1/Rk is the current curvature of the trajectory, where Rk is the radius of turn; and ˙vk is the longitudinal acceleration. The instantaneous center of motion is perpendicular to the heading angle at a fixed distance d from the front end of an object of length L and width W, as shown in Fig. 5. These three measures are assumed to be deterministic and known. It is assumed that the system’s uncertainty in host vehicle state xh k is negligible, i.e., the state is assumed to be fully known and independent of the states of the other objects. Furthermore, it is assumed that the information regarding the other objects coming from the sensor fusion system is described using a Gaussian density xt k ∼ N(¯xt k, Pt k). B. Threat Assessment In the framework presented in Section IV, the threat assess- ment algorithm gc i is required to be able to estimate the threat measures αi for any host vehicle state xh k and any obstacle trajectory Xt k:k+N that can be given by the path prediction fc, [see (7) and (8)]. One such algorithm is proposed in [11], where four threat measures are used to describe the criticality of a traffic situation. These measures are denoted as α1−4 = {αbrake, αaccel, αleft, αright} (27) which represent the fraction of the available tire-to-road friction that the CA system needs to utilize to avoid a collision with a single object by either braking, accelerating, or passing the object by turning either to the left or to the right, respectively. Fig. 6. Algorithm estimates how a collision with a single object can be avoided during a limited prediction horizon k : k + N. Acceleration, steering left, braking, and steering right are considered potential evasive maneuvers. These options are shown in Fig. 6. The criticality limits [see (9)] are denoted as αlim 1−4 = αlim brake, αlim accel, αlim left, αlim right . (28) Since even a short summary of the algorithm would cover several pages, the interested reader is referred to [11] for a description on how to estimate the measures α1−4. If there are multiple objects present, the threat of each object is evaluated separately. Only the object with the highest threat level is kept for further analysis and decision-making for interventions. Clearly, the threat of the situation as a whole may be higher than the highest threat of a single object, but this problem is not treated in [11]. However, it shall be noted that the proposed decision-making framework is applicable in multiobject scenarios if a multiobject threat assessment algo- rithm is available. In the continuation of this paper, as the threat assessment is performed independently for each object, we assume that there is only one object in xt k. The future trajectory of the other objects may be given by any suitable prediction model fc; as such, we propose to use a so-called bicycle model [18], i.e., xt k+i = xt k+i−1 + ⎡ ⎢ ⎢ ⎢ ⎢ ⎢ ⎢ ⎣ cos Ψt k+i−1 vt k+i−1 sin Ψt k+i−1 vt k+i−1 vt k+i−1 ct k+i−1 ˙vt k+i−1 ˙ct k I {i ≤ Mc ˙c } ¨vt k I {i ≤ Mc ¨v } ⎤ ⎥ ⎥ ⎥ ⎥ ⎥ ⎥ ⎦ δt (29) with the prediction horizon i = 1 . . . N. The time interval be- tween any two samples is given by δt and the curvature rate ˙ct k, and the longitudinal jerk ¨vt k is modeled as a noise process given by ˙ct k ¨vt k ∼ N(0, Qc). (30) For simplicity, the time intervals Mc ˙c and Mc ¨v , during which the curvature rate and the longitudinal jerk are applied, re- spectively, are assumed to be known. The predicted motion given by (29) corresponds to the common maneuver of applying a constant steering-wheel angle rate followed by a constant steering-wheel angle [19]. The longitudinal motion is given by a constant jerk followed by a constant acceleration, where decelerating objects are predicted to eventually come to a complete stop rather than changing direction.
  • 8. 644 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS, VOL. 14, NO. 2, JUNE 2013 Fig. 7. Contrary to the driver, observing the world with his eyes, the driver model observes the world through a sensor fusion system. C. Driver as a CA System We argue that most drivers are aware that they have a limited ability to perceive and predict the motion of road users and that this is considered when planning maneuvers. Consequently, if we assume that a driver desires to avoid collisions, the driver (consciously or subconsciously) needs to: 1) observe both stationary objects and other road users; 2) make predictions of road user trajectories; 3) plan safe maneuvers considering these predictions. These three objectives motivate that the driver can be modeled as a CA system, consisting of: 1) a tracking system (i.e., the driver’s eyes or perception), given by qh and qt [see (14) and (15)]; 2) a prediction model fd [see (16)]; 3) a threat assessment algorithm gd i [see (11)]. The driver observes the real world directly to judge whether a traffic situation is critical or not. Similarly, the driver model observes the world through a sensor fusion system, as shown in Fig. 7. 1) Driver’s Perception: Many studies claim that looming, i.e., when an observed object becomes increasingly larger on the perceiver’s retina, is one of the most important cues that drivers observe when making decisions on when to brake [20], [21]. Drivers have great difficulties to perceive small looming changes [22], [23] and may hence find it hard to estimate the acceleration of an object. Experience and the context may also play a role in the driver’s perception of other road users. The modeling of human perception is not an easy task, but promising attempts have been made, e.g., by using machine vision to estimate the probability that a pedestrian has been detected by the driver [24]. Many more studies are needed to obtain a more complete human perception model. To limit the scope of our analysis in Section VII, we assume that drivers only have difficulties in perceiving the longitudinal acceleration of other road users, whereas position, size, and velocity estimates are accurate. This basic assumption is partly supported by [25], which shows that human perception of an object’s velocity is much more accurate than the perception of its acceleration. To conclude, the driver’s perception [see (14) and (15)] is modeled as zh k = qh Xh 1:k, vh k = xh k (31) zt k = qt Xt 1:k, vt k = xt k + vt k (32) vt k = [0 00 0 0 va]T , va ∼ N 0, σ2 a . (33) 2) Driver’s Path Prediction: The driver’s prediction fd of an object’s future trajectory Zt k:k+N [see (16)] is given by the same prediction model that the system uses [see (29)] with zt k as input, instead of xt k. For simplicity, the prediction uncertainty is assumed to originate solely for the driver’s uncertainty in the object’s acceleration. Hence, the process noise is wd k = 0, and the time intervals in (29) are set to Md ˙c = Md ¨v = 0. 3) Driver’s Threat Assessment: Since the driver is modeled as a CA system, the driver’s threat assessment is given by gd i = gc i , i.e., the same algorithm that was used for estimating the threat measures αi can now be used for estimating the driver’s threat measures as β1−4 = {βbrake, βaccel, βleft, βright}. (34) The only difference is that the input to the driver’s threat assess- ment gd i is given by the driver’s observations zh k and predictions Zt k:k+N . The driver’s criticality limits (12) are denoted as βlim 1−4 = βlim brake, βlim accel, βlim left, βlim right . (35) 4) Driver Acceptability for Interventions: To summarize: An intervention is justified if the driver, modeled as a CA system, judges that the traffic situation is critical with respect to all threat measures β1−4 at the time k when an intervention is triggered [see (20)]. In case the driver is distracted, we assume that once an intervention is triggered, the driver will shortly observe the threat and thus be able to judge whether the intervention was motivated or not. VI. IMPLEMENTATION Here, the expressions needed to implement the decision- making framework presented in Section IV, using the modeling choices and assumptions introduced in Section V, are derived. A. Probability Approximations The probabilistic decision-making framework presented in Section IV basically consists of evaluating probability ratios. These calculations involve solving integrals [calculating the ex- pectations in (18), (21), and (24)], which rarely have analytical solutions, which is also the case for the nonlinear models used in this paper. Instead, we resort to approximative solutions. To arrive at a computationally tractable solution, we pro- pose to use a grid of deterministically chosen sample (grid) points with associated weights to approximate the integral as a weighted sum of evaluation. That is, the probability of an event E that is dependent on a stochastic variable x is approximated as Pr{E} = E [I {E(x)}] ≈ L i=1 wiI E x(i) (36) where {x(i) }L i=1 are the deterministically chosen sample points, and wi ∝ p(x(i) ). Since, according to the modeling choices and assumptions that we made in Section V, there is only uncertainty regarding xt k, wc k, and vt k, we only need to choose sample points to evaluate in these dimensions. We evaluate the criticality and driver acceptance decision separately.
  • 9. BRÄNNSTRÖM et al.: PROBABILISTIC FRAMEWORK FOR DECISION-MAKING IN CA SYSTEMS 645 B. Criticality Decision The criticality decision is governed by event probabilities on the form of (18). To approximate these using the grid method, we construct an augmented state ˜xt k = [(xt k)T (wc k)T ]T that is distributed as ˜xt k ∼ N ¯xt k 0 , Pt k 0 0 Qc . (37) From (37), L = 49 grid points are selected as the union of three sigma point sets generated using the unscented transform with κ = {0, 1 − m, 1 − m/3}, respectively, where m is the length of ˜xt k. The interpretation of κ is explained, e.g., in [26]. Let us denote this grid point set as wx j , ˜x t,(j) k L j=1 (38) where wx j ∝ p(˜x t,(j) k ), as defined by (37). Each grid point in (38) is then propagated through the motion model (29) to form the transformed grid point set {wx j , X t,(j) k:k+N }L j=1. The sought probabilities can now be approximated as Pr{E|Y1:k} = E I E xh t , Xt k:k+N |Y1:k ≈ L j=1 wx i I E xh t , X t,(j) k:k+N (39) for the events E = {gc i (xh k, Xt k:k+N ) > αlim i }, where i ∈ [1, 4]. C. Driver Acceptance Decision The evaluation of the driver acceptance is performed in two steps, as described in (20) and (23). We start by evaluating the driver’s sense of criticality, as described in (20), by finding solutions to probabilities on the form of (21). For a given xh k and xt k, these probabilities are easily ap- proximated using the grid method. The proposed driver model, defined in (31) and (32), stipulates that the driver only has added uncertainty regarding the longitudinal acceleration of the other object. To account for this added uncertainty, M = 3 grid points in va ∼ N(0, σ2 a) are chosen in the same manner as the unscented transform with κ = 2/3. Let us denote this grid point set as wz l , v(l) a M l=1 (40) where wz l ∝ p(v (l) a ). From (40), grid points representing the uncertainty in the driver’s perception zt k are obtained by ap- pending these grid points to xt k according to (32) as wz l , qt xt k, v t,(l) k M l=1 . (41) Propagating the points in (41) through the prediction model in (29) yields a transformed grid point set {wz l , Z t,(l) k:k+N }M l=1, from which the probabilities on the form of (21) can be approximated in the same manner as (36), and the decision in (20) and (22) can be evaluated. Fig. 8. Collision scenarios with a lead vehicle, a playing child, a trash can, and a turning vehicle. (bottom) The arrows in the rear-end collision scenario illustrate scenarios with and without an evasive maneuver by the host vehicle. TABLE I PARAMETER SETTING For the CA system to assess the driver’s acceptance of an in- tervention, the system’s uncertainty in xt k needs to be accounted for. Using the method explained earlier, the decision in (22) can be evaluated for a given xt k. Again, choosing a set of L = 37 grid points in xt k ∼ N(¯xt k, Pt k) using the same procedure used to generate (38).1 The probabilities on the form of (24) can now be approximated by evaluating the driver acceptance, as described earlier, by inserting each grid point in xt k into (41). VII. RESULTS Here, the decision-making framework is applied to the col- lision scenarios shown in Fig. 8, using the grid based imple- mentation method in Section VI and the parameter setting in Table I. To find a more suitable selection of the driver’s threat thresholds βlim i , it is suggested that extensive testing both in field operational tests and on test tracks should be conducted, but such studies are beyond the scope of this paper. In addition, when estimating how difficult it is for the driver to steer or brake to avoid a collision, it is assumed that the lateral jerk and the longitudinal jerk do not exceed ±10 m/s3 and ±15 m/s3 , respectively. The selected thresholds are ad hoc and serve only to illustrate the properties of the framework. In the examples, it is assumed that the CA system is equipped with actuators only for automatic braking, whereas steering or acceleration cannot be performed automatically. This is indicated by the parameter values of the threat limits αlim i , e.g., αlim accel = 0 in Table I. The light gray area in Figs. 9–11 indicates when it is too late for the system to prevent a collision by braking. In the graphs, it is assumed that the brake system has a capacity of −10 m/s2 , a maximum deceleration rate of −20 m/s3 , and an initial time delay of td = 0.05 s. 1 In practice, these grid points are chosen as a subset of the grid points in (38), where the wc k dimension is excluded}
  • 10. 646 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS, VOL. 14, NO. 2, JUNE 2013 Fig. 9. Graphs show the probability that the driver will accept (solid line) brake intervention Pr{ ˜Dd|Y1:k} and (dashed line) the probability that the situation is critical with respect to the CA system Pr{Dc|Y1:k}, for two different scenarios. The dotted line shows the lateral acceleration (in [g]) of the host vehicle. The star in Fig. 9(b) marks the time (t = 2 s) when the vehicles collide since no evasive action is taken. In Fig. 9(a), at t ≈ 1.8 s, Pr{Dc|Y1:k} rises because the host vehicle passes close to the lead vehicle while turning to the right. (a) Rear-end collision scenario with an evasive steering maneuver. (b) Rear-end collision scenario without an evasive steering maneuver. Fig. 10. Graphs show (solid line) the probability that the driver will accept a brake intervention Pr{ ˜Dd|Y1:k} and (dashed line) the probability that the situation is critical with respect to the CA system Pr{Dc|Y1:k}, for two different targets. The star marks the time (t = 2 s) when a collision occurs if no evasive action is taken. When approaching the child, both Pr{ ˜Dd|Y1:k} and Pr{Dc|Y1:k} rise above the decision thresholds cc i and ˜cd(the dashed thin horizontal line) while a collision is avoidable; thus, the CA system can use automatic braking to prevent a collision without disturbing the driver. (a) Driver is approaching a trash can at 50 km/h. (b) Driver is approaching a playing child at 50 km/h. Fig. 11. (Solid line) Probability that the driver accepts an interven- tion, Pr{ ˜Dd|Y1:k}. (Dashed line) Probability that braking is needed, Pr{Dc|Y1:k}, using data collected by a radar-based sensor fusion system. The host vehicle (bottom) is approaching a turning vehicle (top). The star marks the time (t = 2 s) when a collision occurs if no evasive action is taken. A. Collision Scenarios on a Test Track Results for an authentic rear-end collision scenario, using recorded measurements, are presented in Fig. 9. For safety reasons, the lead vehicle is represented by a soft inflatable car (3 × 1.7 m), which is attached to a trolley driven by a wire system at 50 km/h. The state of the soft car is estimated using a differential GPS system, as described in [27]. Measurement noise is added to obtain measurements representative of radar- and camera-based sensor fusion systems (see Pt k in Table I). In the first test, a professional driver of the host vehicle approaches the lead vehicle at 80 km/h and performs a late evasive steering maneuver. Immediately prior to this maneuver, it can be seen that the probability that the driver model judges the traffic sit- uation as critical increases. However, the probability decreases as soon as the driver initiates an evasive steering maneuver. In the second test, the host vehicle drives straight into the lead vehicle at 80 km/h without braking or steering. The results in Fig. 9 show that the CA system can prevent an accident without disturbing the driver with unnecessary braking by allowing an intervention when the probability for acceptance is high, e.g., given the parameter setting in Table I. B. Simulated Collision Scenarios Fig. 10 shows simulated scenarios where the driver is ap- proaching either a playing child or a trash can at 50 km/h. Both objects are initially positioned directly in the host vehicle’s path, and the child is standing still. The uncertainty in the state estimate is given by the covariance matrix Pt k in Table I. The driver is assumed to have accurate estimates of the current position of both objects and knows that the trash can will remain stationary. In this example, it is assumed that the child only can run back and forth across the road, where the driver’s prediction of child’s future speed is bounded to the interval ±4 m/s. The results show that the estimated driver acceptance for interventions is higher when approaching the child, as compared with when approaching the trash can. C. Collision Scenario Using Real Radar Data In Fig. 11, the evaluation is performed for an intersection collision scenario using a radar-based sensor fusion system. To obtain realistic measurements, a real target vehicle was used. The state estimates xt k, Pt k in the scenario displayed in Fig. 11 are provided by a tracker [28], using a further developed version of the radar sensor model presented in [13]. The state of the host vehicle was then simulated to drive at a higher speed (50 km/h) than the actual speed, such that a collision situation was created without endangering the drivers. The results indicate that the CA systems potentially could be designed to autonomously avoid, or at least mitigate, accidents in this common type of accident scenario without disturbing the driver with unneces- sary braking. A differential GPS system is used as reference to estimate when a brake intervention no longer can be used to avoid a collision (light gray area). VIII. CONCLUSION In this paper, we presented a probabilistic framework for decision-making in CA systems. We introduced a simple model for estimating if the driver perceives the situation as critical enough to justify an intervention. The results show that the use of this model has several appealing properties. Specifically, the driver model enables the system to perform earlier interventions in situations where the future trajectories of other road users
  • 11. BRÄNNSTRÖM et al.: PROBABILISTIC FRAMEWORK FOR DECISION-MAKING IN CA SYSTEMS 647 are believed to be difficult for the driver to predict. Moreover, the proposed framework formally handles both measurement and prediction uncertainties both when estimating the driver acceptance of an intervention and when estimating if the CA system can prevent a collision. APPENDIX BAYESIAN DECISION-MAKING Here, we summarize the basic Bayesian decision-making theory used in this paper. More details can be found in [29]. Let there be two hypotheses: H0 and H1. Given some observations y, we wish to make a decision regarding which hypothesis is true. Let αi be the decision that hypothesis Hi is the correct one and suppose that we can express loss λij = L(αi|Hj) for making the decision αi given that the true state is Hj. Risk R(αi|y) is defined as the expected loss associated with a particular decision, i.e., R(αi|y) = j=0,1 λi jPr{Hj|y}. (42) The minimum risk is achieved by choosing H1 over H0 if R(α1|y) < R(α0|y), i.e., if p(y|H1) p(y|H0) > (λ1 0 − λ0 0) (λ0 1 − λ1 1) Pr{H0} Pr{H1} . (43) This is equivalent to evaluating the well-known likelihood ratio. It may be convenient to evaluate the posterior probabilities rather than the likelihood, e.g., in a particle filter implementa- tion. Applying Bayes formula to the left-hand side of (43) gives the following equivalent rule: Pr{H1|y} Pr{H0|y} H1 ≷ H0 λ1 0 − λ0 0 λ0 1 − λ1 1 = γ. (44) The given relation suggests to choose H1 over H0 if the ratio Pr{H1|y}/Pr{H0|y} exceeds threshold γ. REFERENCES [1] Annual statistical report, Eur. Road Safety Observatory, 2008. [Online]. Available: http://ec.europa.eu/transport/wcm/road_safety/erso/safetynet/ content/safetynet.htm [2] M. Distner, M. Bengtsson, T. Broberg, and L. Jakobsson, “City safety— A system addressing rear-end collisions at low speeds,” in Proc. 21st Enhanc. Safety Veh. Conf., Stuttgart, Germany, 2009, paper 09-0371. [3] J. Hillenbrand, A. Spieker, and K. Kroschel, “A multilevel collision mit- igation approach—Its situation assessment, decision making, and perfor- mance tradeoffs,” IEEE Trans. Intell. Transp. Syst., vol. 7, no. 4, pp. 528– 540, Dec. 2006. [4] A. Broadhurst, S. Baker, and T. Kanade, “A prediction and plan- ning framework for road safety analysis, obstacle avoidance and driver information,” in Proc. 11th World Congr. Intell. Transp. Syst., Oct. 2004, pp. 1–26. [5] J. Jansson and F. Gustafsson, “A framework and automotive application of collision avoidance decision making,” Automatica, vol. 44, no. 9, pp. 2347–2351, Sep. 2008. [6] M. Goodrich and E. Boer, “Designing human-centered automation: Trade- offs in collision avoidance system design,” IEEE Trans. Intell. Transp. Syst., vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 40–54, Mar. 2000. [7] J.-E. Källhammar, K. Smith, J. Karlsson, and E. Hollnagel, “Shouldn’t cars react as drivers expect?” in Proc. 4th Int. Driving Symp. Hum. Fact. Driver Assess., Traning Veh. Design, 2007, pp. 9–15. [8] A. Eidehall and L. Petersson, “Statistical threat assessment for general road scenes using Monte Carlo sampling,” IEEE Trans. Intell. Transp. Syst., vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 137–147, Mar. 2008. [9] N. Kaempchen, B. Schiele, and K. Dietmayer, “Situation assessment of an autonomous emergency brake for arbitrary vehicle-to-vehicle collision scenarios,” IEEE Trans. Intell. Transp. Syst., vol. 10, no. 4, pp. 678–687, Dec. 2009. [10] M. Althoff, O. Stursberg, and M. Buss, “Model-based probabilistic colli- sion detection in autonomous driving,” IEEE Trans. Intell. Transp. Syst., vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 299–310, Jun. 2009. [11] M. Brännström, E. Coelingh, and J. Sjöberg, “Model-based threat assess- ment for avoiding arbitrary vehicle collisions,” IEEE Trans. Intell. Transp. Syst., vol. 11, no. 3, pp. 658–669, Sep. 2010. [12] J. McCall and M. Trivedi, “Driver behavior and situation aware brake assistance for intelligent vehicles,” Proc. IEEE, vol. 95, no. 2, pp. 374– 387, Feb. 2007. [13] L. Hammarstrand, F. Sandblom, L. Svensson, and J. Sorstedt, “Extended object tracking using a radar resolution model,” IEEE Trans. Aerosp. Electron. Syst., vol. 48, no. 3, pp. 2371–2386, Jul. 2012. [14] J. Sorstedt, L. Svensson, F. Sandblom, and L. Hammarstrand, “A new vehicle motion model for improved predictions and situation assessment,” IEEE Trans. Intell. Transp. Syst., vol. 12, no. 4, pp. 1209–1219, Dec. 2011. [15] T. Sattel and T. Brandt, “From robotics to automotive: Lane-keeping and collision avoidance based on elastic bands,” Veh. Syst. Dyn., vol. 46, no. 7, pp. 597–619, Jul. 2008. [16] D. Ferguson, M. Darms, C. Urmson, and S. Kolski, “Detection, prediction, and avoidance of dynamic obstacles in urban environments,” in Proc. IEEE Intell. Veh. Symp., 2008, pp. 1149–1154. [17] P. Falcone, M. Ali, and J. Sjöberg, “Predictive threat assessment via reach- ability analysis and set invariance theory,” IEEE Trans. Intell. Transp. Syst., vol. 12, no. 4, pp. 1352–1361, Dec. 2011. [18] T. D. Gillespie, Fundamentals of Vehicle Dynamics. Warrendale, PA: SAE, 1992. [19] H. Godthelp, “Vehicle control during curve driving,” Hum. Factors, vol. 28, no. 2, pp. 211–221, Apr. 1986. [20] H. Terry, S. Charlton, and J. Perrone, “The role of looming and attention capture in drivers’ braking respones,” Accid. Anal. Prev., vol. 40, no. 4, pp. 1375–1382, Jul. 2008. [21] P. Fancher, Z. Bareket, and R. Ervin, “Human-centered design of an ACC- with-braking and forward-crash-warning system,” Veh. Syst. Dyn., vol. 36, no. 2/3, pp. 203–223, 2001. [22] J. Barton, T. Cohn, and M. Tomizuka, “Towards a complete human driver model: The effect of vision on driving performance,” in Proc. Amer. Contr. Conf., 2006, pp. 2591–2598. [23] D. Delorme and B. Song, “Human driver model for SmartAHS,” Califor- nia Path Program, Inst. Transp. Studies, Berkeley, CA, Tech. Rep., 2001. [24] D. Engel and C. Curio, “Pedestrian detectability: Predicting human per- ception performance with machine vision,” in Proc. IEEE Intell. Veh. Symp., 2011, pp. 429–435. [25] D. Rosenbaum, “Perception and extrapolation of velocity and accelera- tion,” J. Exp. Psychol., Hum. Percept. Perform., vol. 1, no. 4, pp. 395–403, Nov. 1975. [26] S. Julier and J. Uhlmann, “A general method for approximating nonlin- ear transformations of probability distributions,” Dept. Eng. Sci., Univ. Oxford, Oxford, U.K., Tech. Rep., 1996. [27] M. Brännström, J. Sjöberg, L. Helgesson, and M. Christiansson, “A real- time implementation of an intersection collision avoidance system,” in Proc. 18th World Congr. IFAC, Milano, Italy, 2011, pp. 9794–9798. [28] F. Bengtsson and L. Danielsson, “Designing a real time sensor data fu- sion system with application to automotive safety,” Dept. Signals Syst., Chalmers Univ. Technol., Landala, Sweden, Tech. Rep., Apr. 2008. [29] R. Duda, P. Hart, and D. Stork, Pattern Classification, 2nd ed. New York: Wiley, 2001. Mattias Brännström received the M.Sc. degree in engineering physics from Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden, in 2004. He is currently working toward the Ph.D. degree with the Department of Signals and Systems, Chalmers Uni- versity of Technology. He is currently doing research with the Depart- ment of Safety Electronics and Functions, Volvo Car Corporation, Gothenburg. His research interests include active safety and autonomous driving, par- ticularly threat assessment and decision-making in collision avoidance systems.
  • 12. 648 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS, VOL. 14, NO. 2, JUNE 2013 Fredrik Sandblom was born in Mölndal, Sweden, in 1979. He received the M.S. degree in electrical engineering and the Ph.D. degree from Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden, in 2004 and 2011, respectively. He has been with Volvo Group Trucks Technol- ogy, Gothenburg, since 2005, working with active safety systems, and now holds the position of Senior Technology Specialist. His research interests include object tracking and sensor data fusion, particularly methods for estimating statistical moments and their application to recursive filtering. Lars Hammarstrand was born in Landvetter, Sweden, in 1979. He received the M.Sc. and Ph.D. degrees in electrical engineering from Chalmers Uni- versity of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden, in 2004 and 2010, respectively. From 2004 to 2011, he was with the Department of Active Safety and Chassis, Volvo Car Corporation, Gothenburg, conducting research on tracking and sensor data fusion methods for active safety systems. He is currently a Postdoctoral Research Fellow with the Signal Processing Group, Chalmers University of Technology, where his main research interests include estimation, sensor fusion, and radar sensor modeling, particularly with application to active safety systems.