According to a poll of delegates, Wayne Seybold is predicted to receive 40-45% of the vote in the upcoming Treasurer's race, Don Bates is predicted to receive 20-25% of the vote, and Kelly Mitchell is predicted to receive 10-15% of the vote. The poll also found that 80% of Mitchell's supporters have Seybold as their second choice, while 50% of Bates' supporters are split between Seybold and Mitchell for their second choice. Turnout from supporters may impact the results, as Bates' supporters are predicted to be more passionate and likely to show up to vote.

1. Your Complimentary Cheat Sheet, 6 June 2014
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The Final Lap
As Don Bates, Wayne Seybold and Kelly Mitchell head into the final lap of
the Treasurer’s race, here’s what we’ve been able to gather. If the delegate
vote was today and everyone showed up, here’s what the results would
probably look like …
 Seybold - 40-45%
 Bates - 20-25%
 Mitchell - 10-15 %
 Undecided - 25-30%
How did we get those numbers? This is the Cheat Sheet, people! We deal
in gossip, rumor and blatant innuendo! You know that! We also talk to lots
of people, including those who you don’t think would never say anything to
us.

2. Your Complimentary Cheat Sheet, 6 June 2014
The Cheat Sheet. A Publication of Indy Politics. If you like it, subscribe! Go to
IndyPolitics.Org and click the “Subscribe” button.
However there are more to the numbers, we dug a little deeper and found
out who was everyone’s second choice as you know this is an elimination
contest. Seybold is the second choice for about 80% of Mitchell’s
supporters, Bates is about 20%. Seybold’s supporters are 90% for Mitchell
and 10% Bates. And most interesting is that the delegates who say Bates is
their first pick are splitting 50-50 between Seybold and Mitchell. That tends
to run against some conventional wisdom that Bates supporters are heading
in droves to Mitchell if he loses in the early rounds.
Another caveat in all this is who shows up. We found that Bates’ supporters
are a lot more passionate than Seybold’s and Mitchell so they are a lot more
likely to show. Also with Mike Huckabee speaking on Friday night and the
marriage language vote on Saturday that could motivate Bates
supporters. We know the “pro-family” groups have been sending out
mailers to get delegates to support the changes.
One thing to look at is the first ballot (we call it a beauty contest) and who
comes in 3rd place and what do their supporters do on the next ballot which
is when the elimination begins. Do they show some loyalty or do they bolt
for one of the other two?
Also, keep an eye out for the rules committee. That’s where we hear that if
something is going to change on the marriage language issue, that’s where
it’s going to happen.

3. Your Complimentary Cheat Sheet, 6 June 2014
The Cheat Sheet. A Publication of Indy Politics. If you like it, subscribe! Go to
IndyPolitics.Org and click the “Subscribe” button.
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The Usual Disclaimer Stuff:
The Cheat Sheet is a publication of IndyPolitics.Org. This is a compilation of pure
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take credit for it when it’s right!
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