Our panelists have felt disconnected from the national campaign so far. They see the Conservative party relying too heavily on messages about their long term economic plan. The Labour party is seen as unclear about what they stand for. The Lib Dems are seen as lacking identity and impact after being in government. UKIP is still viewed as a one-issue party about immigration. The SNP is seen as having stood up for Scotland but known for little else. Overall, the campaign has not engaged voters or given them much new information to change their views of the parties.

1. Battleground Britain
Election research with swing
voters in 5 key constituencies
Emerging insights

2. This is a presentation prepared by BritainThinks for a
Breakfast Briefing held on Wednesday 29th April 2015.
It represents an interim overview of the findings from
our Battleground Britain research part-way through the
fieldwork period (running from 19th March to the 15th
May 2015).
A full report – with comprehensive analysis of the
findings from the full fieldwork period - will be available
after the election.

3. Contents
• Background
• The 5 Battlegrounds
• How do swing voters feel about the campaign?
• Party reputations
• Leader images
• Some emerging themes
• Next steps

4. Background

5. Deadlock continues!
Voting intention past 4 months:
Source: May2015. Aggregated polling data from: Ashcroft, ComRes, ICM, Ipsos MORI, Opinium,
Populus, Survation, TNS-BMRB and YouGov
- Labour
- Conservative
- UKIP
- Lib Dems
- Green
35
34
14
8
5
28 Jan 2015 28 Apr 2015

6. Battleground Britain: our work with The Guardian
Glasgow East
Taunton Deane
Dewsbury
Ealing Central
and Acton
South Thanet
We’ve convened a panel of 12 voters in
each of five key constituencies. In each
panel:
• Demographics broadly reflective of
constituency profile
• Voting history broadly reflective of 2010
constituency outcome
• All declared certain to vote in 2015 but, at
the time of the first focus group,
undecided as to which party

7. We’ve been following these voters
through the campaign…
Meeting them in person for
group discussions…
…and tasking them to tell us
what they’re thinking and
feeling through a mobile app

8. The 5 Battlegrounds

9. Thanet South
Source: Lord Ashcroft
Thanet South

10. Thanet South
Some of our panelists…

11. Thanet South
Farage divides opinion among our
panel: either new and exciting or
dangerous and a ‘stain’ on the
reputation of the area – or both
What looked to be a straightforward
UKIP/Conservative race is actually a
complex three-way battle
But his rivals have shortcomings, too:
Conservative is ex-UKIP and invisible
locally, while Labour is too
inexperienced
“They’re all out for themselves.
The local lad [Will Scobie] may
be the best one but our choice is
limited. It’s choice amongst
scoundrels. If I could change one
thing it would be that they have
to keep their promises.”
“Before, I was leaning towards
UKIP, and then the Conservatives,
but Cameron has just kept his
game the same, so now I’d be
UKIP and then Labour. Labour’s
policies seem to be a lot better
than Cameron’s.”
He is a snake but he basically
says what he thinks, he doesn’t
try to get people on his side. I
think he’s talking honestly and
not just trying to get people’s
votes, he’s saying what his party
would like to do.”

12. Glasgow East Glasgow East
Source: Lord Ashcroft

13. Glasgow East
Some of our panelists…

14. Glasgow East
The SNP’s popularity is not, however,
down to its position on independence -
but because it would best represent
Scotland’s interests
Our panelists are highly engaged with
the election, having been energised by
the referendum campaign
Labour are believed to become part of
‘the Establishment’, along with the
media, Westminster (and London)
“I feel as though Labour don’t
want to come out and say
anything that they really want to
do because they wouldn’t get the
votes down in England as they
would in Scotland.”
“I think what the referendum’s
done is open people’s eyes to
politics in a way that it’s never
done before, certainly for me
anyway. People will have a keen
eye out for the election. I just
hope we don’t get forgotten
about afterwards like last time.”
“They’ve accepted the no vote,
and it’s not the referendum
that’s keeping people voting SNP.
They’re a strong voice for
Scotland, their policies are good,
and they’re speaking well.”

15. Dewsbury
Dewsbury
Source: Lord Ashcroft

16. Dewsbury
Some of our panelists…

17. Dewsbury
Knowledge and awareness of local
candidates (and the incumbent MP) is
very low
Voters in Dewsbury feel totally
forgotten by politicians and
Westminster and that nothing ever
changes no matter who they vote for
Smaller parties’ emergence seen as
exciting – but not applicable to the area
(where only ‘Big Two’ have a presence)
“You do hear a lot more about
Labour and Conservatives.
Obviously the other parties
aren’t really bringing themselves
forward or doing much in the
local area. They’re not selling
themselves to us.”
“For us, things aren’t going to
get any better for us. We feel
like it’s going to stay the same.
We can’t see things getting
better for Dewsbury – we’re
neglected here. Nothing ever
happens here.”
“I’ve had nobody at my door
about the election, it’s just what
you get through the letterbox,
nothing face to face, no knocking
on your door.”

18. Taunton Deane
Taunton Deane
Source: Lord Ashcroft

19. Taunton Deane
Some of our panelists…

20. Taunton Deane
The Lib Dems don’t receive credit for
the recovery and have lost their USPs
as a result of coalition
The Taunton area is seen to be thriving;
panelists feel better off and are
inclined to reward Conservatives
Panelists are very familiar with the
local candidates here – and this
familiarity impacts heavily on voting
intention
“Jeremy Browne has certainly
been popular, he’s been opening
a lot of fetes and having his
photo taken but what the actual
policies are and what they bring
in in real terms is probably
difficult to measure.”
“When I left uni in 2009, you
couldn’t get a job and everything
was crap. In comparison, that’s
all completely changed. It’s a
safe option to choose them:
things will stay as they are or
get slightly better. Other parties
are a bit of a gamble. If it isn’t
broken, don’t fix it.”
“It’s as if they go under the radar
all the time. They never really
stick their head up above the
crowd and do something that says
‘Hey, listen to me’.”

21. Ealing Central and Acton
Source: Lord Ashcroft
Ealing Central & Acton

22. Ealing Central and Acton
Some of our panelists…

23. Ealing Central and Acton
Our panelists also feel less attached to
either of the two main parties – and are
quite receptive to smaller parties
The issues that matter in London are
quite distinctive: cost of living & green
issues (but not immigration or jobs)
Many have expressed considerable
frustration at having to think
‘tactically’ (e.g. Lib Dems in 2010)
“I don’t want to waste my vote…
I’m torn between voting tactically
and just going with my heart. I
don’t know what to do and I’m
quite anxious about it.”
“I’ve clawed my way up at work
for five years and I can just about
pay rent and bills and that’s it.
Disposable income – forget it... ”
“No-one’s mentioned the
protest vote. I think a lot of
people will feel like they can’t
vote Labour or Conservative
because they’re too shifty or for
whatever reason. They could go
to UKIP or to the Green Party...
If I voted for the Greens I would
be voting with my heart so it
wouldn’t be a protest vote but
it would for some people.”

24. How do swing voters feel about the
campaign?

25. We asked our voters to bring in three images
to show how they felt about the election…

26. As the weeks have gone on, our voters
haven’t seen much to make them feel better
“It doesn’t matter who you
vote for, because nothing
ever changes”
“To be very honest nothing
I've read or seen has really
got my election juices
flowing despite being very
interested”
“I don’t think they’re trying to
engage young people at all. My
friends have no interest
whatsoever – they just turn up
and vote and they don’t know
why”
“What should I put on the app if I
don’t have any thoughts about the
election?!”

27. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Monday30th
Tuesday31st
Wednesday1st
Thursday2nd
Friday3rd
Saturday4th
Sunday5th
Monday6th
Tuesday7th
Wednesday8th
Thursday9th
Friday10th
Saturday11th
Sunday12th
Monday13th
Tuesday14th
Wednesday15th
Thursday16th
Friday17th
Saturday18th
Sunday19th
Monday20th
Tuesday21st
Wednesday22nd
Thursday23rd
Friday24th
Saturday25th
Sunday26th
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
Comments
Commenters
For our voters, there have been a few ‘key
election moments’ to date
7-Way Leaders' Debate
Trident - Michael Fallon
brands Miliband 'weak'
Party manifesto
launches
Opposition Leaders'
Debate
IFS claims that no
parties have given
enough deficit-
cutting detail
Cameron attacks
SNP/Labour coalition

28. • The 7 way debate
• Nicola Sturgeon’s performance
• Farage’s HIV reference
• Interest in the smaller parties
• General coverage of the
future of the NHS
• With just 1 mention of LD pledge
• The couple from Scunthorpe
who won the lottery twice
In a week when:
• Parliament was dissolved and the
short campaign began
• Conservatives and Labour squabbled
about necessary tax rises
• Lib Dems pledged an extra £2.5bn
on mental health
• 100 business leaders signed open
letter supporting Conservatives
• Party leaders took part in 7-way
televised debate
• Leaked memo alleged Sturgeon
supported Cameron over Miliband
• Green party replaces candidate
facing jail sentence
• Poll put Farage behind in Thanet
South
• And more…
The stories that stood out:

29. At the local level, the snowstorm of leaflets
is also failing to make much of an impact
“Since the election has drawn near
and post has been coming through
the door I've saved all the
advertising campaigns coming to
my door and I'm stood looking at it
all now and think wow! So much
info from different parties to take
in. I’m feeling Confused.com!!”
12%
88%
Of the 444 election diary
entries, only a small
fraction are in reference
to the local campaign:

30. 5%
12%
18%
63%
Housing
Immigration
NHS
Economy
Voters say that they’re most interested in
policies, but in the end are falling back on
impressions of the parties and leaders
27%
73%
Of the 444
election diary
entries, a
quarter refer to
policy areas:
“There’s that difference between what a politician is like as a person
and knowing what their policies are. I didn’t know anything about Ed
Miliband before, but then when I saw the feature on him with his wife
and kids and the opposition debate and I saw him as very similar to David
Cameron. I thought ‘I quite like them both’.”

31. Party reputations

32. In the polls, party brands move slowly, if at all…
… and the relative strengths rarely shift
Source: Lord Ashcroft Polls

33. Source: Lord Ashcroft Polls
And policy views of the parties aren’t
changing much either

34. The Conservative Party

35. The Conservative Party
• Expected to walk it
• Reliance on “LTEP”
quickly became tiring
• Getting noticed for the
wrong things
• Fallon
• No third term for
Cameron
134
Mentions
32%
46%
+
-
“I think that zero hour
contract thing is the
Conservatives because they’re
the party that talks about the
economy and jobs”
“If I hear
Cameron say
‘long term
economic plan’
one more time…!”
• Policies that landed…
• Cuts to welfare
• Deficit reduction
• Protecting the NHS from
spending cuts
• And some that didn’t…
• Immigration
• Drop in IHT

36. The Labour Party

37. The Labour Party
• Unclear what they
stand for now
• Deep resentment
among our voters in
Scotland and Dewsbury
• Much harder to pin
down their one or two
key policies
146
Mentions
30%
42%
+
-
“They’re on about
money for 16 year
olds or something
like that”
“Now all they care about
is people in London.
They’ve totally forgotten
us and their working class
roots”
• Policies that landed…
• Grants for 16-18 year olds
• Cutting tuition fees
• Freezing energy bills
• For several, none at all
• And some that didn’t…
• Cutting the deficit/balancing books
• Non doms
• Childcare

38. The Lib Dems

39. The Lib Dems
• Lacking any kind of
identity
• No discernable impact
after 5 years in
Government
• Dependent on profile
and popularity of local
candidates
30
Mentions
50%
32%
+
-
“Stopping
Trident (I
think), or
was that last
time?!”
• Policies that landed…
• Funding for the NHS
• Not renewing Trident
• Again, for several of our voters,
none at all or historic policies
including tuition fees
• And some that didn’t…
• Funding for education
• Mental health focus specifically
“I personally can’t think of
anything my local MP has done but
you do hear good things about him
so he must have done something.”

40. UKIP

41. UKIP
• Less divisive than their
leader
• For some, speaking to
traditional ‘values’
• But still very much a
‘one trick’ party
60
Mentions
35%
56%
+
-
• Policies that landed…
• Curbing immigration
• Straight in/out EU referendum
• Cutting foreign aid
• And some that didn’t…
• Any that don’t relate to
immigration
“There’s a dislocation between the people who
support UKIP and Nigel who is of a different class –
I think we think that it’s more of a working class
support, but with more of an upper class leader”

42. The SNP

43. The SNP
• Stood up for Scotland in
the referendum (but
known for little else)
• Post TV debates and
policy announcements,
seen to represent real
hope for Scotland
• Hearts winning over
heads
50
Mentions
56%
28%
+
-
• Policies that landed…
• An end to austerity
• Not renewing Trident
• Increasing the minimum wage
• (Many of Labour’s policies)
• And some that didn’t…
• More affordable homes
• Debt as a downside to spending
increases
“They’ve accepted the no vote,
and it’s not the referendum
that’s keeping people voting SNP.
They’re a strong voice in
Scotland, their policies are good,
and they’re speaking well.”
“They’re going
to put a stop to
austerity.
Services will be
better.”

44. Leader images

45. David Cameron
“I think he’s a good
person, even if his
party isn’t”
“He comes across as a winner – he
knows how to do it. He seems
focused and determined even
when there are things up against
him.”
“He’s a stand up chap.
I’d lend him a tenner”

46. Ed Miliband
“He’s a decent guy, I think he’s just
ineffective”
“I don’t think
Labour have a
strong candidate,
he’s just all they
had”
“At last Miliband seems
to have stopped
tiptoeing around and
using bland statements
that grabs no one. He
has started talking
about what so many are
worried about”

47. Nick Clegg
“I voted for them at the
last election. I thought
Nick Clegg had a really
strong presence. He was
making a huge thing out
of tuition fees and, when
they went back on that, I
remember feeling
personally betrayed.”
“Lib Dems are the norm round
here. They’re like the go-to
option if you’re not sure”

48. Nigel Farage
“He’s a snake, ruthless, but that’s why I’d
vote for him – the rest are trying to be
nice, and he doesn’t care if he’s popular or
what people think, he’s just trying to get
elected by saying what he will do “
“I think he’s a stand up guy, I’d
definitely go out down the pub
with him.”

49. Nicola Sturgeon
“I definitely warmed to Nicola
Sturgeon – and that surprised me.
I’m not voting for her – I’m voting
for the party, but listening to her
speak made me think, maybe I’m
not listening to so many lies.”
“She kicked butt at the
Leaders’ Debates. It was
really refreshing. She beat
all the men!”

50. With the exception of Nicola Sturgeon, all
leaders are converging (although this reflects
a big improvement for Ed Miliband)
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
12/27/14 1/16/15 2/5/15 2/25/15 3/17/15 4/6/15 4/26/15 5/16/15
Leader Rating: Net well/badly
Source: YouGov

51. Some emerging themes

52. Voters filter what they see through what they
already know…
Labour’s ‘deficit lock’ is ignored by most who
believe them to be spendthrift – but noticed
by those (e.g. in Glasgow) opposed to austerity
The Conservatives are trusted to get the
deficit down – but claims that the benefits of
recovery are widespread fall on deaf ears
UKIP-leaners in Thanet South have absorbed
Farage’s positives and screened out any
missteps
“I agree with Farage on overseas
aid and the waste of money on
Europe. Increase aid, if you
want to donate to charity, do it
out of your pocket and not
mine.”
“I just don’t think austerity
would be dealt with effectively
enough by Labour, and I don’t
think they would keep all their
promises. I’m beginning to lack
any trust at all in them.”
In general, the campaign has served to strengthen swing voters’
existing views rather than prompt reappraisal:

53. … Which is why policies only land if they
symbolise a deeper truth
Policies that resonate with long-held values
e.g. Labour’s Non-Doms pledge resonates with a broader desire
for ‘fairness’, especially amongst ‘abandoned’ Labour supporters
Counter-intuitive policies (very) occasionally prompt reassessment
e.g. Sturgeon appealing beyond parochial Scottish interests
Policies that confirm an existing prejudice
e.g. Labour’s pledges are ‘spend, spend, spend’, whereas
Conservative spending is rarely questioned

54. On some issues, the two main parties are
mirror images of one another…
Competent but uncaring Well-meaning but not competent
Strong on the economy – but
doesn’t benefit people like me
Strong on cost of living – but
spend, spend, spend
Dangerous on the NHS Well-meaning on the NHS

55. … But for many voters, they’re two
sides of the same coin
“All the parties are talking
about things that aren’t that
important. … It’s almost like a
little show: ‘who can win the
verbal war?’ They’re just talking
to each other””
“Did he need to say 'the
economic chaos of Ed
Milliband'?!! Isn't that a little
ridiculous?!? Saying that, Ed
Milliband sounds equally
ridiculous saying that there will
be a lost 2 years immediately if
the Tories stay in power.”
Looking and sounding the same
• Posh, career politicians
• Drawn from a ‘poncey’, Southern elite
Talking to each other, not to me
• With policy distinctions and in-jokes I don’t understand
Competing on the same small patch of ground
• Smallness of policy and ambition
• Mealy-mouthed and compromising on big issues
Focused on a small group of voters that I’m
not a part of

56. Disillusionment has challenged their duopoly…
The attractiveness of the smaller parties is all about rejection
of the compromised Westminster establishment:
In Glasgow East, voting SNP is not about
independence but representation (as Labour
seen as part of the Southern bloc)
It’s not contradictory to be considering UKIP
and the Greens; smaller parties judged by
what they’re not (rather than what they are)
The Lib Dems have lost their distinctive
appeal by entering the coalition and
becoming part of ‘the Establishment’
It’s hard for them because they’ve
been overshadowed by the
coalition. I don’t think they have a
clear identity anymore, they lost it
when they went in to coalition. It’s
hard to imagine them, really.”
“I feel sorry for the North of
England. At least we have the SNP
speaking up for us. They’ve got no
one.”
“I could go UKIP, or maybe Green”

57. … But the concept of coalition isn’t yet fully
embedded (even after 5 years)
“How are they going to work
together in a coalition if they can’t
even be civil to each other in a TV
debate?”
• Some don’t know what a
coalition is
• Some are cynical about the
feasibility of coalitions
• Some have preferences for
‘politically difficult’
combinations
“I’m really sorry to interrupt and I
know this sounds really stupid, but
what is a coalition? No one’s ever
actually explained it to me.”
“I think that the SNP would work
with either Labour or Conservatives.
It will keep either of them in check
and honest.”

58. What’s next?
A final wave of focus groups in each constituency
Continued mobile ethnography to gauge reactions to
the election result (and wrangling)
A full report with comprehensive analysis of the full
fieldwork period (and an event to discuss the lessons
learned)

59. BritainThinks fieldwork notes:
britainthinks.com/battleground-britain
Guardian coverage:
theguardian.com/politics/series/battleground-britain
If you have any questions, please get in touch
with Raph at rmalek@britainthinks.com