WP 2.3.2 Forest Demonstrator

WP2.3.2 Forest Demonstrator
Céline Déandreis, Marc Chiappero
Miguel Mendes, Maxence Rageade, Phil Cottle
Aria Technologies
07-08/05/2019

2
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Introduction
Objectives and contributors
The Forest Demonstration aims to further develop the RISKFP tool in
order to demonstrate the value of climate services for the insurance
sector for fire and storm risks.
New services have been developed to provide risk representations in
phase with the needs expressed in the (re)insurance sector:
- The main service consists in the generation of “fire realistic disaster
scenarios” that can be used to complete information from historical
data and to compute probable maximum loss (PML).
- The other services provide general information which aims at raising
knowledge on the risk level in a specific region. These new risk
representations are:
• Rapid response risk mapping;
• Large databases of ‘critical landscape pattern’ (days of extreme
weather conditions) for fire and storm risks, projectable in next
season and in the long-term future;
• Risk reduction at the junction of forest and cities;
• Impact calculation that is based on damage function definition
(CO2, biomass burnt, financial loss) that used RDS as input.
Forest Demonstrator components
Technical
contributors
On-demand Realistic Disaster Scenarios (RDS) generation
Tecnosylva with
weather inuuts
from ARIA
On-demand local fire risk mapping (RRM)
Tecnosylva with
weather inputs
from ARIA
Regional mapping of fire risk - ‘Critical landscape pattern’ ARIA
Fuelmap information Tecnosylva
Regional storm risk database ARIA
Regional Fire & storm seasonal forecast projection ARIA
Regional IPCC fire & storm projection ARIA with PIK inputs
On-demand wildland-urban interface risk indicator
AMU with ARIA weather
inputs
Impact calculation on RDS sample ONFI
General integrated platform RISFKP-insurance ARIA

3
Implementation plan
WP Title Lead
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
2.3.2 Forest demonstrator AT
Tasks & Sub-Tasks Involved
Task 2.3.2.3 Prepare and run demonstrations AT, ONFI,AMU,
TSYL,PIK, Fresh-T,
Imperial
D2.3.2.3
D2.3.2.4
D2.3.2.6
D2.3.2.6
• run the climate module for past/present climate fire risk indicators over the 2 demo zones
• adapt and run the climate&impact modules for storm risk and for long-term IPCC scenarios for
storm&fire risks, over the 2 demo zones
• adapt the climate module for seasonal forecast over the 2 demo zones
• if seasonal forecast provides some predictability, run to complete on the 2 demo zones
Task 2.3.2.4 Develop business cases and business model ONFI,AT, TSYL,
FRe
D2.3.2.5
D2.3.2.5
• List sub-tasks relating to this task
Task 2.3.2.5 Go to market (emarketplace connections, business development) BetterPoints,
ONFI, AT, TSYL,
Fre
D2.3.2.7
D2.3.2.8
D2.3.2.7
D2.3.2.9
build first communication for existing RISKFP tool, with past/present climate fire risk over
existing French demo zone
Deliverables
Deliverables & Milestones
D2.3.2.1 Needs assessment report (12)
D2.3.2.2 Prototype of new RiskFP-insurance (12) ==>D2.3.2.2a = concept 1 + D2.3.2.2b =concept2
D2.3.2.3 Report on input data specification of each demonstration (15) ==> remove
D2.3.2.4 Report on validation plan of each demonstration (18)
D2.3.2.5 Business cases and business model report (24)
D2.3.2.6 Final demonstration report (24) ==> postpone at M30
D2.3.2.7 Go to market roadmap (24)
D2.3.2.8 Sample data from demonstrations to be used on the emarketplace, compatible with OASIS technical platform (27)
D2.3.2.9 Report on implemented business actions (36)
2018 2019 2020

4
Key activities, highlight and progress
Run demonstrations
Zone 2 –
East
of Melbourne
Zone 3 –
Walhalla
Zone 1 – West
of Sydney

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Run demonstrations
Forest Demonstrator components
Functionally
implemented
in the web
tool?
Calibrated over which
demo zones in
Australia ?
Missing inputs First results available? Validation
On-demand RDS generation Yes Zones 2 & 3 - Yes Yes
On-demand local fire risk map Yes Zones 2 & 3 - Yes /
Regional mapping of fire risk - ‘Critical landscape
pattern’
Yes Zones 1,2 & 3 - Yes /
Fuelmap information
No (sold separately
by Tecnosylva)
Zones 2&3 (but not
imported in the tool)
No fuel map for zone 1 Yes /
Regional storm risk database (based on same
weather stations as fire risk)
Yes Zones 1,2 & 3 - Yes /
Regional Fire & storm seasonal forecast projection Yes Zones 1,2 & 3
Processing of ECMWF data is
ongoing
available M25 /
Regional IPCC fire & storm projection Yes Zones 1,2 & 3 -
CLP have been computed
from data provided by PIK
but further analyses needed
/
On-demand wildland-urban interface risk indicator Yes
Zones 2 & 3 + additional
zone over South-East
France
- Yes /
Impact calculation on RDS sample Partially Zones 2 or 3 RDS to be provided by TSL Yes to be completed On going

6
Realistic Disaster Scenarios tool validation
Fuel map calibration
Calibrated fuel-map inputs of the areas of interest
Zone 2 (Melbourne):
Realistic Disaster Scenarios and Rapid Response Maps
Example generated on live demo with the webGIS tool …
Zone 3 (Walhalla):

7
Historical fire data
Historical fires data for main fires gathered by an Australian Fire Expert (ECO-FUEGO = ARIA sub-contractor) for the
areas of interest (zones 2 & 3):
• Fire Synopsis
• Fire Spread map (perimeters)
• Fire ignitions locations
• Fire weather data from weather stations
• Fire History prior to the bushfire occurrence
Historical fires used to validate the RDS tool
Zone Name Date Start time Finish time Fire duration
2 Bunyip ridge
Track
7/02/2009 12:00 22:30 10h
3 Aberfeldy-
Donnellys
17/01/2013 11:48 04:00
(18/01/2013
)
16.25h

8
Fire characteristics summary:
• Fire ignited approximately at 80Km east of
Melbourne in the Bunyip State park due to a
lightning strike on the 4/02/2009 being supressed
that same day.
• Next day fire reignited escaping the containment
lines due to the inaccessibility of vehicles in steep
terrain.
• On the morning of the 7th of February strong NW
wind caused fire spotting over the eastern control
line and severe fire behaviour, and after 12:00h over
the SE containment lines.
• Wind direction changed from NW to SW on the late
afternoon from 17:30h on which intensified greatly
the fire spread.
BUNYIP RIDGE TRACK bushfire – PERIMETER

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Simulation results
Real fire data simulation inputs:
• Hourly weather data
• Fire ignition lines
• Vegetation fuels
• Digital Elevation Model
Simulation results summary:
• The simulation fire perimeters obtained with the RDS fire model
(brown) fit quite well the real fire perimeter isochrones (purple),
specially on the limits of the fire perimeter.
• The influence of the wind change from NW to NE on the spread
behaviour can be observed in the behaviour of the simulated fire
isochrones.
• In the RDS results the SE area did not burn due to the following
facts:
• The SE part is burned due to fire spotting phenomena which
is not calculated by the RDS simulation model.
• The fuels existing in this SE area are mainly agriculture lands
that have a null or very low spread rate.
Important remark: The RDS fire model does not take into account the
fire suppression activities carried out by the suppression resources
on the field.

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ABERFELDY-DONNELLYS bushfire
Fire characteristics summary:
• Fire started on 18/01/2013 at private land from a
small pile of burning papers which escaped to State
Forest.
• Fire initially spread towards SW crossing the
Aberfeldy River initially affected by calmer local
wind fields channelled by the river and the valley (5-
10Km/h which then turned to a strong surface wind
(30-40Km/h) that greatly increased the fire rate of
spread.

11
Simulation results
Real fire data simulation inputs:
• Hourly weather data
• Fire ignition lines
• Vegetation fuels
• Digital Elevation Model
Simulation results summary:
• In the simulation result we can observe the effect of the two
different wind patterns, i.e. first the effect of the calm local
wind (isochrones close to each other) and then the effect of
the fast surface wind field. (isochrones with certain distance)
• It is a wind-driven fire, the simulation isochrones tendency
fits quite well to the original fire perimeter. The observed
differences are due to the intervention of the fire
suppression resources.
• Again, the spotting of the fire is not simulated due to the fact
that the fire model does not contemplate fire spotting
phenomena during the simulation.

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Impact on GHG emissions
Methodology
Biomass Map
From WRI (based 2000)
LULC map
From Sentinel (based 2018)
Biomass classification map up
todate
(Mb)
Sentinel 2 (optical)
Fire spread / RDS
map
Biomass burnt
GHG emissions from
fire (CO2, CH4, N2O,
etc..)

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Impact on GHG emissions
Estimated GHG emissions from Aberfeldy-Donnellys bushfire
Start Date: 17/01/2013
Time Ignition: 11:48
Surface Burnt: 20 000 ha
Emission factors g/kg (GeF):
CO2: 1569; CO: 107
CH4: 4.7
N2O: 0.26; Nox: 3
Combustion factor (Cf) for Temperate forests: 0.45
GHG = (AreaBurnt*Biomass*Cf*Gef)/1000 (IPCC)
Average of biomass impacted/ha : 135t
Estimated Co2 emissions : 1 991 Ktons
Estimated CO emissions : 290 Ktons
Estimated CH4 emissions : 12 780 tons
Estimated N2O emissions : 707 tons
Estimated NOx emissions : 8 157 tons

14
Business activity: current status
Business tasks team
• ARIA: transversal + Forestry Latin America
• ForestRe: Insurance sector transversal
• ONFI: Forest owners
• Technosylva: Insurance sector – USA (to come)
Activities already performed
• Supporting partners interviews
• Discussion with other players from the insurance sector, agrobusiness and forest owners.
• Coverage goes beyond the sole insurance sector as the service also attends operational
needs.
• Exploration of other demands as for example the parametric insurance.
• Exploration of partnerships and possible collaboration (AGVESTO)

15
Business activity: scan of the contacts
Risk FP modules Potential clients already identified Additional interviews still to come
On-demand Realistic Disaster Scenarios (RDS) generation
Willis, AON Portland, SwissRe, SCOR
State of Ceara, Brazil
Arauco
Cundinamarca, Colombia
Other insurance companies
Other utilities
Other agrobusiness companies
Forest owners for REDD+
On-demand local fire risk mapping
Willis
Suzano
Electricity Utilities: Enel, State Grid,
Energisa
Regional mapping of fire risk - ‘Critical landscape pattern’
Allianz, SwissRe, Willis RN
AON Brazil with Klabin
Fuelmap information
SwissRe
State of Cear
Regional storm risk database Klabin
Regional Fire & storm seasonal forecast projection Klabin
Regional IPCC fire & storm projection
SwissRe
Klabin
SCOR
On-demand wildland-urban interface risk indicator
Arauco
CPMC
CO2/GHG calculation module Forest owners

16
Business activity: forthcoming activities
Planned activities
• Preparation of a short notice and standard PPT presentation – June 19
• Budget & commercial offer for the service – June 19
• Visits and calls with clients – July / September 19
• Reporting to H2020 – October 19
Discussion with partners about the post H2020 strategy
• Collaboration perspectives – technical / commercial
Business as usual
• Reply to potential demands as they come

17
Business opportunities
Potential commercial offer 1 (ForestRe)
• Meeting with the finance director of one on the biggest global timber investment and
management companies in Portland (September 2018).
• After many conference calls this company is seriously investigating the execution of RiskFP on
one of its Australian investments.
• This would be a cost borne by the client, and as such is a far more realistic testing of the RDS
concept and service.
• Negotiations are in progress in April 2019.
Potential commercial offer 2 (ARIA)
• Discussion with a major Chilean company to sell RISK FP service with a main focus on WUI.
• At the end of 2018, we have already performed 5 different studies on interfaces which were
chosen by the client to showcase the efficiency of the propagation model and the possibility to
simulate different fire scenarios.
• The results were very promising and we structured a proposal for the implementation of the
service after the fire season ends.
• Discussions are in progress in April 2019.

18
User engagement, Dissemination, Communication
Already performed:
• Presentation of the WUI Services at the Firemen and Civil protection headquarter ENTENTE VALABRE (Aix-en-
Provence South of France) - ARIA
• Participation to the 15th International Wildland Fire Safety Summit and 5th Human Dimensions of Wildland Fire
Conference (Dec 2018, USA, https://www.iawfonline.org/event/15th-international-wildland-fire-safety-summit-and-
5th-human-dimensions-conference/) - TECHNOSYLVA
• Fernandez et al., 2018: Modelling fire spread and damage in wildland-urban interfaces, Advances in Forest Fire
Research – ARIA,AMU
Forthcoming soon:
• Presentation at Dana international forest investment conference (London, 7-9 May 2019,
https://danaevents.co.nz/2019london/) - FORESTRE
• Presentation of riskFP at the next OASIS Conference (London, June 2019) – ARIA with support of OASIS LMF
• Organisation of a workshop to present and demonstrate the WUI service to local authorities at county level (June 2019)
- ARIA
• Participation to Innovative4climate (Singapore,June 2019, https://www.cvent.com/events/innovate4climate/event-
summary-decee7fe0cf94765af069f3e7c52ff47.aspx) - ONFI
• Presentation at Dana international forest investment conference (London, 21-23 July 2019,
https://danaevents.co.nz/2019brisbane/): "Innovations in the Australian Forest Industry Sector“ - FORESTRE

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THANK YOU !

WP 2.3.2 Forest Demonstrator

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