Oasis Innovation Hub for Catastrophe and Climate Extremes Risk Assessment Project (H2020_ Insurance)

Oasis Innovation Hub for Catastrophe and Climate
Extremes Risk Assessment Project (H2020_ Insurance)
Tracy Irvine ICL/ Oasis Hub, Fred Hattermann, PIK,
Christoph Gornott, PIK, Kai Schroter, GfZ, Martin
Drews, DTU, Dickie Whitaker, Oasis LMF,
Christopher Genillard, Genillard & Co
30.04.2020

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A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
OveralllossesinUS$bn(in2019values)
Overall losses in US$ bn (in 2019 values)
Munich RE NatCAt
Climate change impacts and the insurance sector
Daily Rainfall Records Increase Globally
(lehmann et al. 2018)
Bushfires in Australia 2020
Floods in GB 2020i

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H2020_Insurance project summary
Oasis Loss
Modelling
Framework
(Standardisation
for the
(Re)insurance
Market)
Oasis Hub
Business
planning and
market access –
available to all
sectors
Demonstrator
development
(Co-design with
(Re)insurers)

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Expert workshops
Results
Methodologies
The workflow in a nutshell
OASISL LMF
Exposure
E-market

5
Oasis Loss Modelling Framework

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Our mission
• Improve risk assessment through better models,
transparency, performance, and innovation
• Provide open source software and an open
framework for model and software development
• Establish a commercially vibrant community of
providers and users of Oasis software, models,
data, and tools

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New User Interface
•Developed new Oasis User Interface to fit into the
framework
•Focus on slick and easy operation of models

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Over 90 models from 24 providers
Oasis Projected Model Coverage
JBA – ‘Global flood model’ available on the Oasis platform (except Antarctica)
CoreLogic – Committed in making all models available on the Oasis platform
**
*

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Future Danube – Multi-hazard, multi-risk model
Reinsurance stakeholders: Aspen Re, Swiss Re, Munich Re, Deutsche Rück, VIG Re, Allianz,
Generali, Uniqa, AXA
Municipality stakeholders: Public Utility Company “Waterworks and Sewerage” Novi Sad,
City Administration for Environmental Protection, Novi Sad, Republic Hydrometeorological
Service of Serbia, Public Water Management Company "Vode Vojvodine", Novi Sad, Serbian
Environmental Protection Agency, Budapest Water Works

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CORDEX-
EU
IMAGE
• Multisite, multivariate
stochastic weather generator
• Imperial College London
SWIM
• Hydrological model
• PIK Potsdam
CaMa
Flood
• Hydraulic model
• PIK Potsdam
BN-
FLEMOps
• Probabilistic flood loss model
• GFZ Potsdam
• GCM-RCM climate
model simulations
MIKE
flood
Partners:
• OASIS LMF
• Genillard & Co
• Pannon Pro
• Uni. Novi Sad
• Insurance sector
• Pluvial flood model
for selected cities
• DTU Copenhagen
Future Danube Cat-Model Overview
Climate/
weather
Hydrology/
hydraulics
Economic
losses
Stakeholders

Applying advanced mathematical methods we use the
model system to generate large event sets
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Robust risk information
• 4 regional climate models (CORDEX-EU)
• 2 climate scenarios (RCP-4.5 & 8.5)
• Historical reference climate (1971-2000),
current climate (2006-35) and two future
periods (2020-49, 2070-99)
• 280,000 years of daily climate and
hydrological data 13,0000 river sections
200,000 spatial units
Big data

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Changes of fluvial flood frequencies (1970-1999 vs 2006-2035)
Future reoccurrence of the 100-year flood
Greater probability of
risk of flooding
Little/no change
Lower probability of risk
of flooding

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100-year flooded area, reference vs current climate period
Entire catchment Area populated/industrial

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Current and future flood risk assessment in the Danube basin
Distribution of residential and commercial assets (CORINE LCLU 2012)
Zoom to Budapest
region

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OASIS LMF implementation of Flood vulnerability models
Residential
fluvial flood loss
Residential
pluvial flood
loss
Commercial
fluvial flood loss

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AEP curves for fluvial flood risk of residential buildings
Entire Danube catchment for historic, current and future climate periods and two RCPs

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AEP curves for fluvial flood risk of commercial buildings
Entire Danube catchment for historic, current and future climate periods and two RCPs

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Flood risk for new wastewater treatment plant (Novi Sad, Serbia)
Stakeholder engagement and pluvial flood simulations
Model simulations (100-year event) Selected site
• 3 stakeholder
workshops in Novi
Sad with
• Completed Climate
Change Impact
Assessment for the
wastewater
treatment plant
• Detailed flash-flood
simulations incl.
high-resolution
weather simulations

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Agricultural Demonstrator
Christoph Gornott (PIK)
Key Insurance partner:
Stabilizing
farmers’
incomes to
cope with
climate perils

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Arbitrator/ Intermediary
Agriculture and Climate Risk Enterprise Ltd.
• Insures > 1 million farmers
• Operate in Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda
• Connect with: aggregators, insures, re-insurers, farmers
• Current means of assessment: Precipitation Index
Re-insurance
Munich Re
• Business partner
• Interested in re-insurance in East Africa and India
• Insurance systems’ design
• Advise and feedback to local insurance providers
Key activities & impact
Crop insurance Business Model Development

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Scientific results and innovation
Relationship between observed and modelled yields
Estimation

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Scientific results and innovation
Share of weather-related yield losses and premium costs
Share of
Weather
[in%]
Only 27% of the yield variability
is attributable to weather
Within Tanzania, the range is 4 – 57%
Additional interventions are needed
141 million US$ p.a. of insurance
premiums’ cost could be saved in Tanzania
These are 72 US$ ha-1
The insurance costs are 71 million US$ p.a.
(45 US$ ha-1)

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Stakeholder engagement and dissemination
Micro-Insurance Business Model Development
• Tanzania: Engagement with several insurance brokers and insurance
companies
• Munich Re has piloted Tanzania crop yield assessment
• Munich Re is funding Indian crop yield assessment
• Several Side Event at the last COPs (23-25), strong engagement with
InsuResilience
• Engagement with GRAF, Sendai Framework and the Warsaw Loss and
Damage Mechanism
Shamba Shape Up
• Special episode on insurances and climate change
for smallholder farmers
• Broadcasted in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda
and has reached 8 million weekly viewers

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Climate & health - New ways to understand climate risk and
reduce health impacts for people with chronic diseases
Stakeholders:
Public and private health insurers, health operators (authorities, hospitals, clinics, doctors),
public sector

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The health damage function
Combining health and environmental data
• Damage Function (exposure-response functions)
• Current impact
COST = Attributable Admissions
HEALTH + ENVIRONMENTAL
E-R functions  RR
Data available on OASIS Hub:
https://oasishub.co/
• Environmental database: air pollution
and temperature by district – Berlin and
Potsdam – 2012/2016.
• COPD hospital admissions cost
attributable to air pollution exposure by
district based on WHO reported relative
risks – 2012/2016.

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Environmental database
Air pollution & temperature in Berlin and Potsdam
Nitrogen
oxides
Ozone
Maximum
temperature
Minimum
temperature
Particulate
matter

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Health database
Hospital admissions due to COPD exacerbation
Mitte

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How can you use our results?
Understanding risks and impacts
Risk/Impact Assessment for Planning Purposes
DESCRIPTION
Locale-specific risk evaluation
(high-resolution Environmental Database + user
specific health data)
VALUE PROPOSITION
Morbidity and mortality cost, including cost
projections based on climate change scenarios
and adaptation strategies..
CUSTOMERS AND CHANNELS
Public health authorities, health insurance
Operational Forecast
DESCRIPTION
Alert system to manage peaks of consultations for
respiratory diseases
VALUE PROPOSITION
Optimize medical resources distribution through a
better anticipation of peak frequentation
CUSTOMERS AND CHANNELS
Health operators (authorities, hospitals, clinics,
doctors)

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Typhoon Climate Service
Reinsurance Stakeholders: AXA: To develop a new internal new tropical cyclone model- a
response to the innovative approach
Banking stakeholders:
Bank of England (UK Insurance regulator): Advice on the first physical climate risk stress test for the
financial sector
HSBC: Loan Risk in Pearl River Delta through business interruption. A new application of seasonal
forecasting
Nominated for “Best Research ” by London Catastrophe
Modelling Industry (2020)

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Typhoon climate services
Landfall catalogue
Landfall event generator
Seasonal forcast

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Innovative web-based modelling solutions for
wildfires
Stakeholders:
Reinsurance: Forest Re, Willis, Swiss Re
Forest Owners/ Manager
Utility companies/ Asset owners
Government

RiskFP is a geospatial web-based modelling platform developed to support both forest
managers, investors and insurance actors in managing the vulnerability of their assets/portfolios
to fire risk.
Main value proposition: bring to the client new technical insights about fire risk exposure based
on past and prospective information.
RiskFP has been tested by several users (mainly forest managers, insurers and fire-fighters) in
several regions worldwide: Brazil, Chile, South Europe, and Australia.
List of client discussions:
ARAUCO Forest owner CTEEP Utility MOLPUS Asset Mgt VAISALA AU Manufacturer
CMPC Forest owner STATE GRID Utility CAMPBELL Asset Mgt State of Victoria Government
SUZANO Forest owner ENEL Utility MILLER Forest Asset Mgt ECOTECH Manufacturer
KLABIN Forest owner VINCI Utility Silver Creek Asset Mgt VALE Mining
AON Insurance ENERGISA Utility Durham&Bates Asset Mgt SUATRANS Risk Mgt
SwissRe Insurance Sardegna Reg Forest Mger Hancock Asset Mgt CONAF Forest Mger
Willis Insurance Cudinamarca Government Stafford Asset Mgt State of Ceara Government
Axa Insurance New Caledonia Forest Mger VEON Asset Mgt ACR Ass. Forest Companies
Allianz Insurance Floresta Atlantica Forest Mger SMITH AGRI Asset Mgt State of Mato Grosso Government

RiskFP includes:
Critical Landscape pattern
Realistic disaster scenarios and CO2 release
Risk mapping
overview of the critical areas with
regard to the “easiness of the fire to
spread”

Results: Validation of past events
Fire characteristics :
• Wind direction changed from NW
to SE on the late afternoon from
17:30h on which intensified greatly
the fire spread.
Bunyip ridge Track
Name Date Start time Finish time Fire
duration
Burnt area
Bunyip
ridge Track
7/02/2009 12:00 22:30 10h 21 170 ha
Aberfeldy-
Donnellys
17/01/2013 11:48 04:00
(18/01/20
13)
16.25h > 20 000
ha
Fire characteristics:
• 2 wind speed regimes: calmer
local wind fields channelled by
the river and the valley (5-10Km/h
which then turned to a strong
surface wind (30-40Km/h) that
greatly increased the fire rate of
spread.
Aberfeldy-Donnellys

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Oasis Hub
Stakeholders:
• Public, academic and commercial data providers
• All sectors searching for data, tools and services for risk
assessment and planning

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@Oasis Hub 2018 CONFIDENTIAL
https://oasish
ub.co/

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@Oasis Hub 2018 CONFIDENTIAL
Data transparency & information

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Catastrophic Risk and Adaptation Tool Sets
The tools vary in scope as follows:
• Web-based tools where
information can be accessed
via existing data within the tool
itself directly
• Web-based tools where data
needs to be sourced and then
input into an analytical tool
• Web-based tools with a linked
service offer
• Tools that add value to
modelling results
• Risk modelling platforms
• Softwares & programmes

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Oasis Hub impacts
Uploads: 1450
Total Page
Visits: 209,358
Downloads: 3245
Members: 1470
Organisations:
180

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Members
(Re)Insurance
302 (21.5%)
Academia
490 (34.9%)
Consultancy
60 (4.3%)
Environmental &
Meteorological
Services
75 (5.3%)
Banking &
Finance
42 (3%)
Aerospace &
Security
3 (0.2%)
Risk
Modelling
37 (2.6%)
Risk
Management
7 (0.5%)
Government
28 (2%)
Building &
Infrastructure
48 (3.4%)
Health
7 (0.5%)
ICT
69 (4.9%)
Energy &
Utilities
12 (0.9%)
Manufacturing
2 (0.1%)
Media
9 (0.6%)
Non-Profit
49 (3.5%)
Other
165 (11.7%)

Contact Information:
Fred Hattermann,
PIK –
hattermann@pik-
potsdam.de
Tracy Irvine, Imperial
College London &
Oasis Hub –
tracy.Irvine@oasishu
b.co

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