The Future Danube Model is a multi-hazard and risk model suite for the Danube region which has been developed in the OASIS project. The model comprises modules for estimating potential perils from heavy precipitation, heatwaves, floods, droughts, and damage risk considering hydro-climatic extremes under current and climate change conditions.

1. WP 2.1.1 Danube regional multi-hazard, multi-
risk model suite
Kai Schröter, Max Steinhausen, Stefan Lüdtke, Viktor Rözer, Heidi Kreibich
May 7, 2019
4th H2020|Insurance project meeting, Budapest
Michel Wortmann, Fred Hattermann
Martin Drews, Per S. Kaspersen, Mads Dømgaard
Céline Deandreis, Gwendoline Lacressonniere

2. 2
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Outline 1.Broad progress and results
2.Deliverables, milestones, mid-term review
3.Data creation and management
4.Meetings with end-users and stakeholders
5.Communications conducted and planned
6.Outlook

3. 3
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
1. Broad progress
• Improved fluvial hazard model setup with 25m DEM and OSM data
• First hazard maps (IMAGE 10ka > SWIM > CamaFlood)
• Completed pluvial hazard model for Novi Sad and started for Bratislava
• 2nd Novi Sad stakeholder workshop and 4th Technical Review Meeting
• Completed Oasis-LMF compliant cat model chain

4. 4
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Fluvial flood model improvements
SWIM, CamaFlood
OpenStreeMap data
• River central lines
• River banks
• Residential /
industrial areas
• Lakes & reservoirs
90m
25m

5. 5
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
EOBS-IMAGE-SWIM CamaFlood
100-year flood hazard map

6. 6
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
100-year flooded area, reference vs current climate period
ICHEC-KNMI – IMAGE – SWIM – CamaFlood
Entire catchment OSM populated/industrial

7. 7
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Pluvial flood simulations
Bratislava (25m DEM)Novi Sad (5m DEM)
100-year event, RP2 Sewer system 100-year rainfall event

8. 8
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Planned WWTP Plant at Rokov Potok
RP100, conceptual drainage system, infiltrationPlanned WWTP plant at Novi Sad

9. 9
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
WRF simulations of select extremes
Results: 15/7 2016 (61 mm) & 24/5 2015 (122 mm)

10. 10
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
2. Deliverables, milestones, mid-term review
• M2.1.1.1 Risk mapping ready (M24)
• D2.1.1.1 OASIS LMF compliant hazard and risk mapping in the Danube basin uploaded to
the OASIS-Hub (M24) – final stages
• Mid-term review: few changes to narrative document, contributed to updates of WP2.1.3

11. 11
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
3. Data creation and management
• Updated version of the fluvial flood model (PIK servers)
• Started the creation of Oasis-LMF footprint files (large files, PIK servers)
• Novi Sad and Bratislava pluvial flood model output (DTU servers)

12. 12
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
• 2nd Novi Sad Stakeholder workshop
• Presentation of updated results, mainly pluvial and fluvial flooding
• Highlighted fluvial flood risk at selected site
• 4rd Technical Review Meeting
• Mid April in Munich, organised by Genillard & Co at the AllianceRe HQ
• 6-8 insurance experts, participants from WP2.1.1 and WP2.1.2
• Decided to provide full Oasis-LMF model setup for insurers to test
• Valuable input from insurance modelling experts (continuing)
• Series of calls with SwissRe and Generali
4. Meetings with end-users and stakeholders
M18 - 24

13. 13
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
• Presentation of the FDM to the Sava Commission (February, Zagreb)
• G&co best-practice NatCat workshop (April, Munich)
• Representation at the EGU (April, Vienna)
• Presentation of the FDM to the International Commission for the Protection
of the Danube River (ICPDR) (next week, Bucharest)
5. Communications
M18 - 24

14. 14
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
6. Outlook
M18 - 24
• Validation of Oasis-LMF model setup with
insurance partners
• Fluvial model improvements and validation with
input from TU Munich Interreg project (river cross
sections)
• Further validation using external risk maps
• Papers on the setup, calibration, validation of the
comprehensive models
• 6th Technical Review Meeting (October 2019)

15. Get in touch
PIK Potsdam: wortmann@pik-potsdam.de, hattermann@pik-potsdam.de
GFZ Potsdam: kai.schroeter@gfz-potsdam.de, max.steinhausen@gfz-potsdamd.de
DTU Copenhagen: mard@dtu.dk
ARIA: fvelay@aria.fr
Publication:
Hattermann et al. 2018. Simulation of flood hazard and risk in the Danube basin with the
Future Danube Model. Climate Services. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2018.07.001
Oasis-HUB:
https://oasishub.co/organization/gfz-potsdam
https://oasishub.co/organization/pik

16. 16
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
OASIS LMF enabled
Event
Hazard Vulnerability
Damage Bin
Dictionary
Vulnerability
Dictionary
Intensity Bin
Dictionary
Exposure
(Item)
Area Peril
Dictionary

17. 17
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Generation of stochastic meteorological event sets
• 4 regional climate
models
(CORDEX-EU)
• 2 climate scenarios
(RCP-4.5 & 8.5)
• Historical reference
climate (1971-2000),
current climate (2006-
35) and two future
periods (2020-49,
2070-99)
2006-2035