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World Grain
Marketing: Why the
location of population
& economic growth is
crucial for long-term
planning
Chris Ferris
Sen...
About Informa Economics
 Informa Economics, Inc. (formerly known as Sparks Companies, Inc.) is a
world leader in broad-ba...
Summary
3
1) Demand Pull
A. Population Growth
B. Economic Growth
2) Supply Implications
3) Some Logistics Implications
4) ...
DEMAND PULL
4
Demand Pull
Factors:
 Population
 Urbanization
 GDP per person
 Income Distribution
 Consumption per person
 Many mo...
(1) World Population
Growth
6
9 Billion People by 2035 – 2040!?
Slide 7
2015, 7.349
2035, 8.839
2040, 9.157
2100, 11.213
0.000
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
1...
… We Understand the Location of This
Growth!
… So where will the population growth be?
(2) World Population
Projection to 2035;
by Region and by Key
Countries
9
World Population Projection (Millions) to 2035;
Asia Dominates, Africa Growing Quickly (1)
10
Source: UNPD http://esa.un.o...
World Population Projection (Millions) to 2035;
Asia Dominates, Africa Growing Quickly (2)
11
Source: UNPD http://esa.un.o...
World Population Projection (Millions) to 2035;
Top 10 countries: India, China still dominate
12
Source: UNPD http://esa.u...
(3) World Population
Projection to 2100
13
World Population Projection (Millions) to
2100, Africa is the Projected Growth Story (1)
14
Source: UNPD http://esa.un.org...
World Population Projection (Millions) to
2100, Africa is the Projected Growth Story (2)
15
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,00...
World Population Projection (Millions) to 2100;
Top 10 Countries, highlighting fast growth
16
Source: UNPD http://esa.un.o...
World Population Projection (Millions) to 2100;
Top 3 Countries: China, India & Nigeria
17
Source: UNPD http://esa.un.org/...
(4) World Population:
Forecast Changes to
Fertility Rates
18
Fertility Rate: 2015
Slide 19
Source: UNPD
Africa
has the
highest
fertility
rates
Fertility Rate: forecast for 2035
Slide 20
Source: UNPD
Africa
has the
highest
fertility
rates,
but
expect
it to
slow
Fertility Rate: forecast for 2050
Slide 21
Source: UNPD
Africa
has the
highest
fertility
rates,
but
expect
it to
slow
more
Fertility Rate: forecast for 2100
Slide 22
Source: UNPD
Africa
has the
highest
fertility
rates,
but
expect
it to
slow to
a...
(5) Urbanization
23
Urbanization & Large Cities: 1970s
Slide 24
Source: UNPD
Urbanization & Large Cities: 1990
Slide 25
Source: UNPD
Urbanization & Large Cities: 2014
Slide 26
Source: UNPD
Urbanization & Large Cities: 2030 F
Slide 27
Source: UNPD
Share Urban: 2014 by Income Categories
Slide 28
Source: UNPD
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
Share Urban
Urbanization Rates vs 54% World Average
Slide 29
Source: UNPD
(6) Some Challenges for
GDP/Person Growth
30
Key Challenges
 Need to grow GDP/person:
◊ This requires the building of infrastructure
◊ the improvement of education (a...
2015 Economic Freedom Index - Overall
32
Source: Heritage Foundation, in Partnership with the Wall Street Journal
Note:
Th...
2015 Economic Freedom Index
- Business Freedom
33
Source: Heritage Foundation, in Partnership with the Wall Street Journal
2015 Economic Freedom Index
- Trade Freedom
34
Source: Heritage Foundation, in Partnership with the Wall Street Journal
2015 Economic Freedom Index
- Fiscal Freedom
35
Source: Heritage Foundation, in Partnership with the Wall Street Journal
2015 Economic Freedom Index
- Government Spending
36
Source: Heritage Foundation, in Partnership with the Wall Street Jour...
2015 Economic Freedom Index
- Monetary Freedom
37
Source: Heritage Foundation, in Partnership with the Wall Street Journal
2015 Economic Freedom Index
- Investment Freedom
38
Source: Heritage Foundation, in Partnership with the Wall Street Journ...
2015 Economic Freedom Index
- Financial Freedom
39
Source: Heritage Foundation, in Partnership with the Wall Street Journa...
2015 Economic Freedom Index
- Property Rights
40
Source: Heritage Foundation, in Partnership with the Wall Street Journal
...
2015 Economic Freedom Index
- Freedom From Corruption
41
Source: Heritage Foundation, in Partnership with the Wall Street ...
2015 Economic Freedom Index
- Labor Freedom
42
Source: Heritage Foundation, in Partnership with the Wall Street Journal
Ac...
Why is Economic Freedom Important?
◊ With rapid population growth, rapid economic growth is needed to prevent food
insecur...
(7) Example: Nigeria
Wheat + Rice
44
Nigeria, Wheat Consumption:
Actual & Forecast
Slide 45
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2005
2010...
The Most Recent
Commodities Super-cycle:
Oil, Grains, Oilseeds
46
Monthly World Crude Surplus/Deficit vs
OPEC Price
47
Growth in Canadian Crude Oil Production
48
Canada’s monthly
Crude Oil Total Net
Withdrawals
(roughly equivalent
to product...
Growth in Canadian Crude Oil Exports
49
Much of the growth
was exported to the
USA, with a portion
of it being delivered
b...
Fuel Oils and Crude Petroleum by Rail
50Source: Statistics Canada
On a Crop
Year basis,
you can see
crude by rail
dipped
s...
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1,000
1,050
90/91
91/92
92/...
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
...
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
75/76
...
World Soybean Supply and Demand
(Million Tonnes)
54
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
22...
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
80/81
81/82
82/83
83/84
84/85
85/86
86/8...
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
90/91
91/92
92/93
93/94
94/95
95/96
96/97
97/98
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
0...
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/1...
North American Grain
Logistics
59
Agricultural Supply Chain
60
Comparing the Modes:
One 15-Barge Tow Equals 216 Rail Cars or 1,050 Trucks
61
216 Rail Cars + 6 Locomotives
1,050 Large Se...
62
Comparing the Modes:
Ton-miles Traveled per Gallon of Fuel
576
413
155
Super-B
trucks
improve the
relative
economics
so...
Multi-Client Study
North American Commodity Constraints
63
North America’s Commodity Constraints
The Modal Requirements Tr...
 Freight Movements at all
Time Highs
 Freight a Leading Indicator
on the Economy
 Multi-Modal Economy
Freight Movements...
 Coal Consumption
Dominates Flow Patterns
 Grain Prominent in Canada
 Fertilizer Relatively Small
but Important in Reac...
 Abundant Supplies of
Commodities to be Moved
 Crop Production as an
Example
 Challenges on Horizon
 Demand still Stre...
Questions and Answers, and
Discussion
68
World Grain
Marketing: Long term
planning implications
of the location of
population &
economic growth
Chris Ferris
Senior...
World Grain Marketing: Why the location of population & economic growth is crucial for long term planning
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World Grain Marketing: Why the location of population & economic growth is crucial for long term planning

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The lead presentation at the Fields on Wheels Conference held in Winnipeg, MB on Dec 2, 2015. The presentation considered the location of expected population growth and its implications for the Canadian grain industry in the future 2035, with a glimpse at 2100 (used UNPD and other sources).

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World Grain Marketing: Why the location of population & economic growth is crucial for long term planning

  1. 1. World Grain Marketing: Why the location of population & economic growth is crucial for long-term planning Chris Ferris Senior Grains Analyst, Canada www.twitter.com/chrisferris3 December 2, 2015 20th Annual Fields on Wheels Conference
  2. 2. About Informa Economics  Informa Economics, Inc. (formerly known as Sparks Companies, Inc.) is a world leader in broad-based domestic and international agricultural and commodity/product market research, analysis, evaluation and consulting.  We analyze most major value chains in the crops, livestock sectors, along with transportation.  The company was founded in 1977. It was acquired by Informa plc ("Informa") in 2003.  Informa Economics, Inc. serves hundreds of firms, institutions and trade organizations worldwide. http://www.informaecon.com/aboutus.asp
  3. 3. Summary 3 1) Demand Pull A. Population Growth B. Economic Growth 2) Supply Implications 3) Some Logistics Implications 4) Implications
  4. 4. DEMAND PULL 4
  5. 5. Demand Pull Factors:  Population  Urbanization  GDP per person  Income Distribution  Consumption per person  Many more 5
  6. 6. (1) World Population Growth 6
  7. 7. 9 Billion People by 2035 – 2040!? Slide 7 2015, 7.349 2035, 8.839 2040, 9.157 2100, 11.213 0.000 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 WorldPopulation(Billions) WORLD World Median Forecast 9 Billion Source: UNPD http://esa.un.org/unpd This projection is too vague for those of you making large, long- lived infrastructure investments; UNLESS, ….
  8. 8. … We Understand the Location of This Growth! … So where will the population growth be?
  9. 9. (2) World Population Projection to 2035; by Region and by Key Countries 9
  10. 10. World Population Projection (Millions) to 2035; Asia Dominates, Africa Growing Quickly (1) 10 Source: UNPD http://esa.un.org/unpd 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Population(Millions) World Population Projection (Millions) ASIA AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN EUROPE NORTHERN AMERICA OCEANIA
  11. 11. World Population Projection (Millions) to 2035; Asia Dominates, Africa Growing Quickly (2) 11 Source: UNPD http://esa.un.org/unpd 4,393 4,598 4,775 4,923 5,045 1,186 1,340 1,504 1,679 1,866 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Population(Millions) ASIA AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN EUROPE NORTHERN AMERICA OCEANIA
  12. 12. World Population Projection (Millions) to 2035; Top 10 countries: India, China still dominate 12 Source: UNPD http://esa.un.org/unpd 0 200 000 400 000 600 000 800 000 1 000 000 1 200 000 1 400 000 1 600 000 1 800 000 2015 2035 Population(thousands) India China United States of America Indonesia Nigeria Pakistan Brazil Bangladesh Mexico Ethiopia
  13. 13. (3) World Population Projection to 2100 13
  14. 14. World Population Projection (Millions) to 2100, Africa is the Projected Growth Story (1) 14 Source: UNPD http://esa.un.org/unpd 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100 Population(Millions) World Population Projection (Millions) ASIA AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN EUROPE NORTHERN AMERICA OCEANIA
  15. 15. World Population Projection (Millions) to 2100, Africa is the Projected Growth Story (2) 15 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100 Population(Millions) ASIA AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN EUROPE NORTHERN AMERICA OCEANIA Source: UNPD http://esa.un.org/unpd
  16. 16. World Population Projection (Millions) to 2100; Top 10 Countries, highlighting fast growth 16 Source: UNPD http://esa.un.org/unpd 0 200 000 400 000 600 000 800 000 1 000 000 1 200 000 1 400 000 1 600 000 1 800 000 2015 2035 2100 Population(thousands) India China Nigeria United States of America Democratic Republic of the Congo Pakistan Indonesia United Republic of Tanzania Ethiopia Niger African countries forecast to have strong population growth and population count to 2100: 2100 Rank: (3) Nigeria (5) D.R. of the Congo (8) Tanzania (10) Niger
  17. 17. World Population Projection (Millions) to 2100; Top 3 Countries: China, India & Nigeria 17 Source: UNPD http://esa.un.org/unpd India 1,659,786 China 1,004,392 Nigeria 752,247 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 2,000,000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100 Population(thousands) India China Nigeria United States of America Democratic Republic of the Congo Pakistan Indonesia United Republic of Tanzania Ethiopia Niger
  18. 18. (4) World Population: Forecast Changes to Fertility Rates 18
  19. 19. Fertility Rate: 2015 Slide 19 Source: UNPD Africa has the highest fertility rates
  20. 20. Fertility Rate: forecast for 2035 Slide 20 Source: UNPD Africa has the highest fertility rates, but expect it to slow
  21. 21. Fertility Rate: forecast for 2050 Slide 21 Source: UNPD Africa has the highest fertility rates, but expect it to slow more
  22. 22. Fertility Rate: forecast for 2100 Slide 22 Source: UNPD Africa has the highest fertility rates, but expect it to slow to around the replace ment rate
  23. 23. (5) Urbanization 23
  24. 24. Urbanization & Large Cities: 1970s Slide 24 Source: UNPD
  25. 25. Urbanization & Large Cities: 1990 Slide 25 Source: UNPD
  26. 26. Urbanization & Large Cities: 2014 Slide 26 Source: UNPD
  27. 27. Urbanization & Large Cities: 2030 F Slide 27 Source: UNPD
  28. 28. Share Urban: 2014 by Income Categories Slide 28 Source: UNPD 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 Share Urban
  29. 29. Urbanization Rates vs 54% World Average Slide 29 Source: UNPD
  30. 30. (6) Some Challenges for GDP/Person Growth 30
  31. 31. Key Challenges  Need to grow GDP/person: ◊ This requires the building of infrastructure ◊ the improvement of education (although literacy has improved markedly in many countries ◊ Faster and easier business formation, with strong respect for private property (ILD) ◊ Improved freedoms of various types (Heritage Foundation):  In some cases, the world has made fairly good progress.  In others, there is substantial room for improvement 31 Source: qqq
  32. 32. 2015 Economic Freedom Index - Overall 32 Source: Heritage Foundation, in Partnership with the Wall Street Journal Note: The following indexes were created by the Heritage Foundation and represent their methods & judgements. They are being used as illustrations only.
  33. 33. 2015 Economic Freedom Index - Business Freedom 33 Source: Heritage Foundation, in Partnership with the Wall Street Journal
  34. 34. 2015 Economic Freedom Index - Trade Freedom 34 Source: Heritage Foundation, in Partnership with the Wall Street Journal
  35. 35. 2015 Economic Freedom Index - Fiscal Freedom 35 Source: Heritage Foundation, in Partnership with the Wall Street Journal
  36. 36. 2015 Economic Freedom Index - Government Spending 36 Source: Heritage Foundation, in Partnership with the Wall Street Journal
  37. 37. 2015 Economic Freedom Index - Monetary Freedom 37 Source: Heritage Foundation, in Partnership with the Wall Street Journal
  38. 38. 2015 Economic Freedom Index - Investment Freedom 38 Source: Heritage Foundation, in Partnership with the Wall Street Journal There is room for improve ment
  39. 39. 2015 Economic Freedom Index - Financial Freedom 39 Source: Heritage Foundation, in Partnership with the Wall Street Journal There is room for improve ment
  40. 40. 2015 Economic Freedom Index - Property Rights 40 Source: Heritage Foundation, in Partnership with the Wall Street Journal According to this Index, there is substantial room for improvement
  41. 41. 2015 Economic Freedom Index - Freedom From Corruption 41 Source: Heritage Foundation, in Partnership with the Wall Street Journal According to this Index, there is substantial room for improvement
  42. 42. 2015 Economic Freedom Index - Labor Freedom 42 Source: Heritage Foundation, in Partnership with the Wall Street Journal According to this Index, there is room for improvement
  43. 43. Why is Economic Freedom Important? ◊ With rapid population growth, rapid economic growth is needed to prevent food insecurity, food riots and things like the Arab Spring. Crises like this can degenerate into failed states, terrorism, civil war and/or mass starvation. ◊ Corruption, slow processes, unclear property rights – all these things slow down economic growth.  While not everyone would agree with how the Indexes above are defined, they illustrate several problems. ◊ A lack of economic freedom, freedom to rapidly form businesses, a lack of recognition of property rights, and unclear operating environments make it harder for entrepreneurs to build their small businesses up from small “grey economy” /1 business into bigger ones than generate jobs for others. Some of the businesses can then grow into medium and large businesses. 43 1/ “Grey Economy” - Hernando de Soto, of the Institute of Liberty & Democracy, Peru
  44. 44. (7) Example: Nigeria Wheat + Rice 44
  45. 45. Nigeria, Wheat Consumption: Actual & Forecast Slide 45 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 2005 2010 2015 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100 Wheat: Food Use
  46. 46. The Most Recent Commodities Super-cycle: Oil, Grains, Oilseeds 46
  47. 47. Monthly World Crude Surplus/Deficit vs OPEC Price 47
  48. 48. Growth in Canadian Crude Oil Production 48 Canada’s monthly Crude Oil Total Net Withdrawals (roughly equivalent to production) rose sharply from 2010 onwards. With strong oil prices, & the application of frakking, we saw rising supplies.
  49. 49. Growth in Canadian Crude Oil Exports 49 Much of the growth was exported to the USA, with a portion of it being delivered by rail, given the lack of pipeline capacity to carry the new supplies.
  50. 50. Fuel Oils and Crude Petroleum by Rail 50Source: Statistics Canada On a Crop Year basis, you can see crude by rail dipped slightly in 2014-15, after surging 300% from 2010-11. Expect 2015- 16 to flat to lower. Expanded Oil-by-Rail
  51. 51. 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 1,000 1,050 90/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 EndingStocks Production&Use World Corn Production, Use and Ending Stocks Million Tonnes Production Use Ending Stocks Ending Stocks Ex. China
  52. 52. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 BillionGallons US Ethanol Production and RFS Ethanol Production Implied Domestic Disappearance Renewable Fuel Standard
  53. 53. 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 75/76 77/78 79/80 81/82 83/84 85/86 87/88 89/90 91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 Dollars/Bushel MillionBushels US Corn Ending Stocks and Prices Ending Stocks Farm Price
  54. 54. World Soybean Supply and Demand (Million Tonnes) 54 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 80/81 81/82 82/83 83/84 84/85 85/86 86/87 87/88 88/89 89/90 90/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 USEndingStocks WorldProductionandUse World Production World Use US Ending Stocks
  55. 55. 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 80/81 81/82 82/83 83/84 84/85 85/86 86/87 87/88 88/89 89/90 90/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Dollars/Bushel MillionBushels US Soybean Ending Stocks and Prices Farm Price Ending Stocks
  56. 56. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 90/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 MillionTonnes Sep/Aug Soybean Exports by Major Exporters Ukraine Canada Paraguay Argentina Brazil US
  57. 57. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 MIllionTonnes Vegetable Oil Import Demand FSU W. Hemis Europe Africa China India Other Asia
  58. 58. North American Grain Logistics 59
  59. 59. Agricultural Supply Chain 60
  60. 60. Comparing the Modes: One 15-Barge Tow Equals 216 Rail Cars or 1,050 Trucks 61 216 Rail Cars + 6 Locomotives 1,050 Large Semi Tractor-TrailersOne 15-Barge Tow
  61. 61. 62 Comparing the Modes: Ton-miles Traveled per Gallon of Fuel 576 413 155 Super-B trucks improve the relative economics somewhat more that this.
  62. 62. Multi-Client Study North American Commodity Constraints 63 North America’s Commodity Constraints The Modal Requirements Transporting North America’s Commodities in a Highly Utilized Modal Environment A Three Segment Multi-Client Study Effort: Grains, Oilseeds & Products Fertilizer (N, P & K) Coal Key Issues to be Addressed in the Study Presented by a Premier Industry Intelligence Team : Through a combination of higher commodity flow patterns, insufficient equipment, inadequate infrastructure investment, weather and congestion, the North American transport logistics enterprise has been strained. Yet, the outlook for commodities is very strong in context of an expanding global population and higher consumption levels. However, those higher demand volumes will further strain an already congested transport system. An understanding of the scope, scale and requirements of moving expected higher volumes of North American commodities and products is needed. A premier team has launched this important study. Be sure to sign up today by visiting www.informaecon.com. Prepared and Organized by: informa economics, inc. www.informaecon.com Enroll Today
  63. 63.  Freight Movements at all Time Highs  Freight a Leading Indicator on the Economy  Multi-Modal Economy Freight Movements Running Strong 64
  64. 64.  Coal Consumption Dominates Flow Patterns  Grain Prominent in Canada  Fertilizer Relatively Small but Important in Reach Commodity Composition Skewed to Agriculture and Energy 65 Canada 53% Canada 4% Canada 43% U.S. 32% U.S. 2% U.S. 66% Total 33% Total 2% Total 65% North American Commodity Consumption Share by Country and Total Grains and Oilseeds Fertilizer Coal
  65. 65.  Abundant Supplies of Commodities to be Moved  Crop Production as an Example  Challenges on Horizon  Demand still Strength Abundant Supplies 66 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 CropProduction(millionmetrictons) Crop Year U.S. and Canada Crop Production Canada United States
  66. 66. Questions and Answers, and Discussion 68
  67. 67. World Grain Marketing: Long term planning implications of the location of population & economic growth Chris Ferris Senior Grains Analyst, Canada www.twitter.com/chrisferris3 December 2, 2015 20th Annual Fields on Wheels Conference

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