- Global growth remains subdued at 3.2% in 2019 and is projected to reach 3.5% in 2020, lower than previous forecasts due to ongoing trade tensions and policy uncertainty.
- Momentum in global activity was soft in the first half of 2019, with weaker performance in emerging markets offsetting better results in some advanced economies. Investment and consumer spending have been weak across many countries.
- Downside risks to the global economic outlook have increased since April, including potential further escalation of trade conflicts, exposure of financial vulnerabilities, and rising disinflationary pressures. Multilateral policy coordination is needed to support growth.
This document provides an overview and analysis of the global economic outlook and key trends that will impact the retail industry in 2020. It discusses uncertainties from trade restrictions and geopolitical tensions. Major economies like the US, Eurozone, China, and others are expected to see subdued growth. Inflation remains low globally and monetary policies remain accommodative despite some risks. Uncertainty from the US-China trade war and a slowing global economy pose challenges for retailers in 2020.
The OECD interim economic assessment report provides the following key points:
1) The coronavirus outbreak has weakened the global economic outlook, with global GDP growth projected to slow to 2.4% in 2020 from 2.9% in 2019, before recovering to around 3.25% in 2021.
2) China's economy has been significantly impacted by containment efforts, disrupting global supply chains and lowering demand for exports. Other economies are also feeling effects from their own outbreaks.
3) Considerable uncertainty remains around the outlook depending on the duration and spread of the virus. A more prolonged or widespread outbreak would weaken prospects considerably with global growth potentially dropping to 1.5% in 2020.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. December 2018Latvijas Banka
Macroeconomic Developments Report:
External Demand;
Financial Conditions;
Sectoral Development;
GDP Analysis from the Demand Side;
Labour Market;
Costs and Prices;
Conclusions and Forecasts;
The Fiscal Impact of Inequality Measures. Analysis of Scenarios.
Standpoint: Global Reflation by Kevin Lings STANLIB
Fears of sustained deflation and stagnant growth in the United States and Europe have been replaced by a more optimistic growth outlook as well as concerns about rising inflation. This has driven developed market equities higher, but also weakened major bond markets.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. December 2019Latvijas Banka
The Macroeconomic Developments Report is published on a semi-annual basis. This publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
- The global economy is expected to stabilize in 2020 after a difficult 2019, but a meaningful acceleration is unlikely as political tensions remain and central banks have limited policy tools. Growth will likely remain around 3%.
- Emerging markets will perform better than in 2019 due to easier financial conditions, but China's structural slowdown will be a drag on prospects.
- Central banks have depleted policy ammunition as rates are low, and further stimulus measures may have diminishing returns. This puts more focus on fiscal policy, but significant action is unlikely.
- The report discusses these themes and their implications for the MENA region, particularly around oil demand and prices.
The Federal Reserve is unlikely to hike its policy rate from 0.25-0.50% at its 16th March 2016 meeting and may have little choice but to revise down its expectations to around 3 hikes for 2016 in its accompanying projections. In the 16th December “dot-chart”, the median expectation among the 10 voting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members and 7 non-voting members was for four hikes this year (the weighted average was for a slightly less hawkish 91bp of hikes).
This document provides an overview and analysis of the global economic outlook and key trends that will impact the retail industry in 2020. It discusses uncertainties from trade restrictions and geopolitical tensions. Major economies like the US, Eurozone, China, and others are expected to see subdued growth. Inflation remains low globally and monetary policies remain accommodative despite some risks. Uncertainty from the US-China trade war and a slowing global economy pose challenges for retailers in 2020.
The OECD interim economic assessment report provides the following key points:
1) The coronavirus outbreak has weakened the global economic outlook, with global GDP growth projected to slow to 2.4% in 2020 from 2.9% in 2019, before recovering to around 3.25% in 2021.
2) China's economy has been significantly impacted by containment efforts, disrupting global supply chains and lowering demand for exports. Other economies are also feeling effects from their own outbreaks.
3) Considerable uncertainty remains around the outlook depending on the duration and spread of the virus. A more prolonged or widespread outbreak would weaken prospects considerably with global growth potentially dropping to 1.5% in 2020.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. December 2018Latvijas Banka
Macroeconomic Developments Report:
External Demand;
Financial Conditions;
Sectoral Development;
GDP Analysis from the Demand Side;
Labour Market;
Costs and Prices;
Conclusions and Forecasts;
The Fiscal Impact of Inequality Measures. Analysis of Scenarios.
Standpoint: Global Reflation by Kevin Lings STANLIB
Fears of sustained deflation and stagnant growth in the United States and Europe have been replaced by a more optimistic growth outlook as well as concerns about rising inflation. This has driven developed market equities higher, but also weakened major bond markets.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. December 2019Latvijas Banka
The Macroeconomic Developments Report is published on a semi-annual basis. This publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
- The global economy is expected to stabilize in 2020 after a difficult 2019, but a meaningful acceleration is unlikely as political tensions remain and central banks have limited policy tools. Growth will likely remain around 3%.
- Emerging markets will perform better than in 2019 due to easier financial conditions, but China's structural slowdown will be a drag on prospects.
- Central banks have depleted policy ammunition as rates are low, and further stimulus measures may have diminishing returns. This puts more focus on fiscal policy, but significant action is unlikely.
- The report discusses these themes and their implications for the MENA region, particularly around oil demand and prices.
The Federal Reserve is unlikely to hike its policy rate from 0.25-0.50% at its 16th March 2016 meeting and may have little choice but to revise down its expectations to around 3 hikes for 2016 in its accompanying projections. In the 16th December “dot-chart”, the median expectation among the 10 voting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members and 7 non-voting members was for four hikes this year (the weighted average was for a slightly less hawkish 91bp of hikes).
Here are the key points from the Central Bank section:
- The central bank has increased the public sector credit growth ceiling to 10.9% for the second half of the fiscal year, up from its previous projection of 8.5%, in light of higher growth in the first half.
- Interest rates on savings certificates offered by the central bank (around 12%) remain significantly higher than deposit rates offered by commercial banks (6-7%).
- The central bank's monetary policy statement projected GDP growth will be between 7.5-8.2% for fiscal year 2018-19.
- A priority is bringing down default loans by ensuring better corporate governance in the financial sector.
The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in September due to concerns about slowing global growth and volatility in financial markets. This left investors uncertain about the strength of the US economy and the timing of future rate hikes. Global equities had their worst quarter since 2011 due to fears about China's economy and declining commodity prices. Locally, South Africa's GDP contracted more than expected and the outlook was revised lower. The rand depreciated sharply while domestic equities fell, with resources shares hit hardest by declining commodity prices.
Quantic Asset Management Monthly Review April 2019
Find out more about our services by visiting https://www.quantic-am.com/en/and https://www.tirthas.com/
Macroeconomic Developments Report. June 2019Latvijas Banka
This publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
This document provides an overview of the Trade and Development Report 2013 published by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. It summarizes that five years after the global financial crisis, the world economy remains fragile with slow growth. Developed countries are expected to grow around 1% while developing countries may grow around 5%. International trade has slowed significantly and global recovery is uncertain as fiscal austerity in many countries is adding to deflationary forces. A rebalancing of growth strategies in developing countries away from exports toward domestic demand is needed given weak global demand.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. June 2018Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation. The publication is available only in electronic form.
Political risk quarterly update Q3 2016Graeme Cross
This summary provides an overview of political risk ratings changes and trends discussed in the Q3 2016 political risk quarterly report from Aon. Four countries saw deteriorations in their overall risk ratings - Azerbaijan, Djibouti, Kuwait, and Zimbabwe. Only Madagascar improved, being upgraded to medium-high risk. Deteriorations were driven by factors like increased political violence, regional conflicts, weakened fiscal situations, and instability. Asia was noted as seeing modestly improving ratings, while challenges remain around infrastructure investment programs in countries like India, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Risks in Latin America are also trending positively overall despite issues in Venezuela. The Middle East and Africa continue facing pressure from low oil prices and conflicts.
The document provides an update on the fixed income markets in April 2010. It discusses the problems facing Greece and other European countries, and the impact on the euro. Domestically, most economic data was positive and the housing market showed signs of recovery. Treasury yields fell during the month due to concerns around Europe. Spreads tightened further for corporate bonds.
The document provides an overview and analysis of the global economic outlook by the IMF staff. It finds that:
1) Global economic activity has fallen sharply, with advanced economies experiencing their worst declines since World War 2.
2) The IMF forecasts that the global economy will contract by 0.5-1% in 2009 on average before a gradual recovery in 2010.
3) Turning the global economy around depends critically on concerted policy actions to stabilize financial conditions and support demand through fiscal and monetary policies.
One of the most burning issues that have dominated the public sphere in Nigeria and other oil exporting countries is the covid-19 pandemic and its attendant challenges. This pandemic is a shock on real economic fundamentals and frictionless of the market. It introduces a barrier between the market forces with strong complementary feedbacks in the real economy. The absence of precise vaccine or medication for the virus has necessitated the adoption of several precautionary measures with the aim of containing its wide spread. Critical among which are the travel restrictions, lockdown measures as well as social and physical distancing. These measures have detrimental effect on the demand and price of oil in the international market. In view of that, this study evaluates the social and economic impact of covid-19 in Nigeria taking into cognisance the effect on certain critical macroeconomic indicators. The study adopted an analytical approach to supplement the much ongoing documentations on the subject matter. Result shows that virtually all essential macroeconomic indicators are grossly affected with tax, remittances and employment exhibiting severe consequences. Also, uncertainty, panics and lockdown measures are key to motivating higher decrease in world demand. The supply disruptions and huge death toll generates a heightened uncertainty and panic for household and business. This uncertainty and panic leads to drop in consumption and investment thereby causing a decrease in corporate cash flows and triggered firm’s bankruptcy. Also, lay-off and exiting firms produce higher unemployment while labour income decreased significantly. Since it entails a large amount of government expenditure especially in the health sector which is required to contain the spread of the virus, there is needs for government to diversify its revenue sources and thus drop over dependency on the oil remittance. Furthermore, there is a need to support the financial system to avoid the health crisis becoming a financial crisis in the long-run.
The Economic Outlook for 2017 by Kevin LingsSTANLIB
South Africa is searching for higher economic growth in a global environment increasingly shaped by rising nationalism, higher levels of trade protection and a fall-off in the effectiveness of monetary policy.
The Lithuanian Economy - No 8, November 15, 2011Swedbank
- Lithuania experienced strong GDP growth of 6.6% in Q3 2011, but growth is expected to moderate as the global economy slows.
- Retail trade continued double-digit growth in September, though industrial production growth decreased from 14.6% to 6.9% in 2011.
- Growth expectations have worsened due to the ongoing eurozone debt crisis, which will negatively impact exports and business/household confidence.
US stocks gained for a sixth consecutive quarter, with the S&P 500 rising 5.2% to break 1900 for the first time. Investors looked past a sharp drop in first quarter GDP, focusing on continued Fed support and an expected economic acceleration. Treasury yields fell globally on expectations of further central bank stimulus in Europe. Corporate earnings are forecast to grow through the rest of 2014 after a weak start, supporting the outlook for stocks.
The document summarizes a U.S. macroeconomic forecast by Cushman & Wakefield. It finds that:
1) The U.S. economy has remained resilient despite global headwinds like Brexit, with strong consumer spending and job growth powering continued expansion.
2) GDP growth is expected to be moderate at 1.6% in 2016 and 2.1% in 2017, while employment growth will exceed 2.2 million new jobs in 2016 and 1.8 million in 2017.
3) Commercial real estate markets like office and industrial will continue tightening, with office rents growing 5.5% in 2016 and 4.8% in 2017 and industrial vacancy falling further before a modest rise in
The document provides an overview of the global and Botswana economies in the 4th quarter of 2009. Key points include:
- The global economy is recovering from recession but growth is uneven, with emerging markets growing faster than developed countries. Risks remain such as high government debt levels.
- In Botswana, diamond production and exports recovered partially in 2009 but remain below previous levels. Inflation fell sharply while interest rates were cut. The non-mining economy showed resilience.
- Going forward, risks include rising oil prices driving inflation up. Fiscal sustainability concerns will constrain government spending support for the economy in 2010. The recovery is expected to be uneven across sectors.
In the past week European and global politics, strong US growth data, mixed global macro numbers and eurozone, Chinese and Indian central bank policy have eclipsed Trump-mania.
What is perhaps more remarkable is markets’ reasonably benign, “risk-on” reaction, bar the euro’s sell-off in the wake of today’s ECB policy meeting.
One interpretation is that markets have become complacent to the risks presented by President Trump’s constellation of pseudo-policies, surging nationalism in Europe, the UK’s uncertain economic future and continued capital outflows from China.
I have a somewhat different take, namely that markets are rightly discounting some of the more extreme and perverse scenarios, including:
Protectionist US policies coupled with higher US yields and a strong dollar collapsing tepid emerging market, and eventually global, economic growth;
The “no” vote in the Italian referendum leading to the economic collapse of the European Union’s third largest economy;
Surging European nationalism culminating in the collapse of the eurozone and/or European Union;
The British government opting to sacrifice growth in exchange for a hard version of Brexit and;
Capital outflows from China ultimately forcing policy-makers into accepting a Renminbi collapse and shocking a corporate sector with significant dollar-debt.
Ivo Pezzuto - "FED BITES THE BULLET - Implements First Rate Hike in Nearly a ...Dr. Ivo Pezzuto
The US Federal Reserve finally bites the bullet, increasing the
FFR – a key short-term interest rate – by quarter of a per cent.
With this, the regulator has clearly signaled that it might take
similar actions in future, if need arises, to take the economy
towards full recovery.
The document provides an outlook for 2016, summarizing that:
1) China has committed to ensuring 7% growth for the immediate future through government intervention, but rebalancing away from investment is necessary long-term which will slow growth rates.
2) In Europe, GDP growth has accelerated from under 1% to 1.6% since late 2014, supported by ECB monetary easing expanding credit.
3) In the US, growth in construction employment and spending is contributing to a 5% rise in personal consumption and will likely continue supporting the economy in 2016.
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND UPDATEdynamo777
Global economic growth is projected to slow from 3.4% in 2022 to 2.9% in 2023 and then rise to 3.1% in 2024. Inflation is expected to fall globally from 8.8% in 2022 to 6.6% in 2023 and 4.3% in 2024, remaining above pre-pandemic levels. Monetary policy tightening is starting to cool demand and inflation but the full impact will not be seen until 2024. Downside risks remain from further escalation of the war in Ukraine, debt distress, and financial market repricing in response to inflation news.
Oecd interim economic ocde outlook march 2017 embargo (3)Daniel BASTIEN
Global GDP growth is projected to modestly increase to around 3.5% in 2018, boosted by fiscal initiatives. However, disconnects between financial markets and fundamentals, potential market volatility, financial vulnerabilities, and policy uncertainties could derail the modest recovery. Vulnerabilities remain from high debt levels, rising house prices, and non-performing loans. Risks are also high for emerging markets from factors like rising corporate debt and vulnerability to external shocks. Stronger growth would enhance resilience, but policy uncertainty and potential changes to trade policy pose ongoing risks.
- The global economy slowed in the first half of 2019 as manufacturing orders declined and trade growth weakened due to the US-China trade war.
- Despite these headwinds, global markets posted positive returns in the first half led by developed market equities. Both stocks and bonds rose together due to diverging views on future central bank actions.
- Key investment themes for the second half include ongoing central bank easing, uncertainty around the US-China trade war, potential for an earnings recession, and safe haven assets like gold continuing to benefit from rising global risks.
Here are the key points from the Central Bank section:
- The central bank has increased the public sector credit growth ceiling to 10.9% for the second half of the fiscal year, up from its previous projection of 8.5%, in light of higher growth in the first half.
- Interest rates on savings certificates offered by the central bank (around 12%) remain significantly higher than deposit rates offered by commercial banks (6-7%).
- The central bank's monetary policy statement projected GDP growth will be between 7.5-8.2% for fiscal year 2018-19.
- A priority is bringing down default loans by ensuring better corporate governance in the financial sector.
The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in September due to concerns about slowing global growth and volatility in financial markets. This left investors uncertain about the strength of the US economy and the timing of future rate hikes. Global equities had their worst quarter since 2011 due to fears about China's economy and declining commodity prices. Locally, South Africa's GDP contracted more than expected and the outlook was revised lower. The rand depreciated sharply while domestic equities fell, with resources shares hit hardest by declining commodity prices.
Quantic Asset Management Monthly Review April 2019
Find out more about our services by visiting https://www.quantic-am.com/en/and https://www.tirthas.com/
Macroeconomic Developments Report. June 2019Latvijas Banka
This publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
This document provides an overview of the Trade and Development Report 2013 published by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. It summarizes that five years after the global financial crisis, the world economy remains fragile with slow growth. Developed countries are expected to grow around 1% while developing countries may grow around 5%. International trade has slowed significantly and global recovery is uncertain as fiscal austerity in many countries is adding to deflationary forces. A rebalancing of growth strategies in developing countries away from exports toward domestic demand is needed given weak global demand.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. June 2018Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation. The publication is available only in electronic form.
Political risk quarterly update Q3 2016Graeme Cross
This summary provides an overview of political risk ratings changes and trends discussed in the Q3 2016 political risk quarterly report from Aon. Four countries saw deteriorations in their overall risk ratings - Azerbaijan, Djibouti, Kuwait, and Zimbabwe. Only Madagascar improved, being upgraded to medium-high risk. Deteriorations were driven by factors like increased political violence, regional conflicts, weakened fiscal situations, and instability. Asia was noted as seeing modestly improving ratings, while challenges remain around infrastructure investment programs in countries like India, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Risks in Latin America are also trending positively overall despite issues in Venezuela. The Middle East and Africa continue facing pressure from low oil prices and conflicts.
The document provides an update on the fixed income markets in April 2010. It discusses the problems facing Greece and other European countries, and the impact on the euro. Domestically, most economic data was positive and the housing market showed signs of recovery. Treasury yields fell during the month due to concerns around Europe. Spreads tightened further for corporate bonds.
The document provides an overview and analysis of the global economic outlook by the IMF staff. It finds that:
1) Global economic activity has fallen sharply, with advanced economies experiencing their worst declines since World War 2.
2) The IMF forecasts that the global economy will contract by 0.5-1% in 2009 on average before a gradual recovery in 2010.
3) Turning the global economy around depends critically on concerted policy actions to stabilize financial conditions and support demand through fiscal and monetary policies.
One of the most burning issues that have dominated the public sphere in Nigeria and other oil exporting countries is the covid-19 pandemic and its attendant challenges. This pandemic is a shock on real economic fundamentals and frictionless of the market. It introduces a barrier between the market forces with strong complementary feedbacks in the real economy. The absence of precise vaccine or medication for the virus has necessitated the adoption of several precautionary measures with the aim of containing its wide spread. Critical among which are the travel restrictions, lockdown measures as well as social and physical distancing. These measures have detrimental effect on the demand and price of oil in the international market. In view of that, this study evaluates the social and economic impact of covid-19 in Nigeria taking into cognisance the effect on certain critical macroeconomic indicators. The study adopted an analytical approach to supplement the much ongoing documentations on the subject matter. Result shows that virtually all essential macroeconomic indicators are grossly affected with tax, remittances and employment exhibiting severe consequences. Also, uncertainty, panics and lockdown measures are key to motivating higher decrease in world demand. The supply disruptions and huge death toll generates a heightened uncertainty and panic for household and business. This uncertainty and panic leads to drop in consumption and investment thereby causing a decrease in corporate cash flows and triggered firm’s bankruptcy. Also, lay-off and exiting firms produce higher unemployment while labour income decreased significantly. Since it entails a large amount of government expenditure especially in the health sector which is required to contain the spread of the virus, there is needs for government to diversify its revenue sources and thus drop over dependency on the oil remittance. Furthermore, there is a need to support the financial system to avoid the health crisis becoming a financial crisis in the long-run.
The Economic Outlook for 2017 by Kevin LingsSTANLIB
South Africa is searching for higher economic growth in a global environment increasingly shaped by rising nationalism, higher levels of trade protection and a fall-off in the effectiveness of monetary policy.
The Lithuanian Economy - No 8, November 15, 2011Swedbank
- Lithuania experienced strong GDP growth of 6.6% in Q3 2011, but growth is expected to moderate as the global economy slows.
- Retail trade continued double-digit growth in September, though industrial production growth decreased from 14.6% to 6.9% in 2011.
- Growth expectations have worsened due to the ongoing eurozone debt crisis, which will negatively impact exports and business/household confidence.
US stocks gained for a sixth consecutive quarter, with the S&P 500 rising 5.2% to break 1900 for the first time. Investors looked past a sharp drop in first quarter GDP, focusing on continued Fed support and an expected economic acceleration. Treasury yields fell globally on expectations of further central bank stimulus in Europe. Corporate earnings are forecast to grow through the rest of 2014 after a weak start, supporting the outlook for stocks.
The document summarizes a U.S. macroeconomic forecast by Cushman & Wakefield. It finds that:
1) The U.S. economy has remained resilient despite global headwinds like Brexit, with strong consumer spending and job growth powering continued expansion.
2) GDP growth is expected to be moderate at 1.6% in 2016 and 2.1% in 2017, while employment growth will exceed 2.2 million new jobs in 2016 and 1.8 million in 2017.
3) Commercial real estate markets like office and industrial will continue tightening, with office rents growing 5.5% in 2016 and 4.8% in 2017 and industrial vacancy falling further before a modest rise in
The document provides an overview of the global and Botswana economies in the 4th quarter of 2009. Key points include:
- The global economy is recovering from recession but growth is uneven, with emerging markets growing faster than developed countries. Risks remain such as high government debt levels.
- In Botswana, diamond production and exports recovered partially in 2009 but remain below previous levels. Inflation fell sharply while interest rates were cut. The non-mining economy showed resilience.
- Going forward, risks include rising oil prices driving inflation up. Fiscal sustainability concerns will constrain government spending support for the economy in 2010. The recovery is expected to be uneven across sectors.
In the past week European and global politics, strong US growth data, mixed global macro numbers and eurozone, Chinese and Indian central bank policy have eclipsed Trump-mania.
What is perhaps more remarkable is markets’ reasonably benign, “risk-on” reaction, bar the euro’s sell-off in the wake of today’s ECB policy meeting.
One interpretation is that markets have become complacent to the risks presented by President Trump’s constellation of pseudo-policies, surging nationalism in Europe, the UK’s uncertain economic future and continued capital outflows from China.
I have a somewhat different take, namely that markets are rightly discounting some of the more extreme and perverse scenarios, including:
Protectionist US policies coupled with higher US yields and a strong dollar collapsing tepid emerging market, and eventually global, economic growth;
The “no” vote in the Italian referendum leading to the economic collapse of the European Union’s third largest economy;
Surging European nationalism culminating in the collapse of the eurozone and/or European Union;
The British government opting to sacrifice growth in exchange for a hard version of Brexit and;
Capital outflows from China ultimately forcing policy-makers into accepting a Renminbi collapse and shocking a corporate sector with significant dollar-debt.
Ivo Pezzuto - "FED BITES THE BULLET - Implements First Rate Hike in Nearly a ...Dr. Ivo Pezzuto
The US Federal Reserve finally bites the bullet, increasing the
FFR – a key short-term interest rate – by quarter of a per cent.
With this, the regulator has clearly signaled that it might take
similar actions in future, if need arises, to take the economy
towards full recovery.
The document provides an outlook for 2016, summarizing that:
1) China has committed to ensuring 7% growth for the immediate future through government intervention, but rebalancing away from investment is necessary long-term which will slow growth rates.
2) In Europe, GDP growth has accelerated from under 1% to 1.6% since late 2014, supported by ECB monetary easing expanding credit.
3) In the US, growth in construction employment and spending is contributing to a 5% rise in personal consumption and will likely continue supporting the economy in 2016.
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND UPDATEdynamo777
Global economic growth is projected to slow from 3.4% in 2022 to 2.9% in 2023 and then rise to 3.1% in 2024. Inflation is expected to fall globally from 8.8% in 2022 to 6.6% in 2023 and 4.3% in 2024, remaining above pre-pandemic levels. Monetary policy tightening is starting to cool demand and inflation but the full impact will not be seen until 2024. Downside risks remain from further escalation of the war in Ukraine, debt distress, and financial market repricing in response to inflation news.
Oecd interim economic ocde outlook march 2017 embargo (3)Daniel BASTIEN
Global GDP growth is projected to modestly increase to around 3.5% in 2018, boosted by fiscal initiatives. However, disconnects between financial markets and fundamentals, potential market volatility, financial vulnerabilities, and policy uncertainties could derail the modest recovery. Vulnerabilities remain from high debt levels, rising house prices, and non-performing loans. Risks are also high for emerging markets from factors like rising corporate debt and vulnerability to external shocks. Stronger growth would enhance resilience, but policy uncertainty and potential changes to trade policy pose ongoing risks.
- The global economy slowed in the first half of 2019 as manufacturing orders declined and trade growth weakened due to the US-China trade war.
- Despite these headwinds, global markets posted positive returns in the first half led by developed market equities. Both stocks and bonds rose together due to diverging views on future central bank actions.
- Key investment themes for the second half include ongoing central bank easing, uncertainty around the US-China trade war, potential for an earnings recession, and safe haven assets like gold continuing to benefit from rising global risks.
Ey profit warning stress index q3 2018 7Robert Hussey
For those looking at a UK listing – this is a very insightful piece of research based on EY’s Profits Warning Stress Index. In Q3 2018, the market has experienced the highest average share price fall since the financial crisis. 206 earnings downgrades in the first nine months of the year. The Consumer sectors are dominating these earnings downgrades but with domestic and global uncertainty, we are seeing signs of contraction spreading wider a field (industrial and finance sectors). If one combines this with the number of recent IPO’s either being pulled or priced at the lower of the range, a cautionary picture in certainly painted.
The organised retail sector in India faces several challenges that are hindering its growth, including a global economic slowdown reducing consumer demand, intense competition from unorganised retailers, and lack of basic infrastructure. Additional issues include high real estate costs, supply chain inefficiencies, challenges hiring and retaining skilled workers, and losses from retail shrinkage. Addressing these obstacles will help the sector achieve greater economies of scale and expansion.
This monthly briefing highlights how the world economy is struggling to gain momentum, emerging economies facing policy dilemma in trying to stabilize currencies and the G20 meeting making a call for new measures to lift growth and create jobs.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_mb.shtml
Global Economy Watch correspondiente al mes de mayo, donde se analiza la mejora de la economía estadounidense y el consiguiente fin de la política monetaria expansiva.
Etude PwC Global Economy Watch (mai 2015)PwC France
Selon la dernière étude « Global Economy Watch » du cabinet d’audit et de conseil PwC, les créances libellées en dollars américains, émises hors des Etats-Unis, ont fortement augmenté au cours de ces dernières années, passant de 6 000 milliards de dollars avant l’instauration des premières mesures d’assouplissement quantitatif en novembre 2008 à environ 9 000 milliards en 2014.
Quarterly Report. Perspectives on Global and Spanish economy Q2-2019Círculo de Empresarios
The main international organisations (IMF, OECD, European Commission, etc.) continue to downgrade their growth expectations in light of the new geopolitical and economic scenario. Q1 2019 has been marked by the darkening economic outlook, the waning confidence of the private sector, and the mounting global uncertainty, which is at record levels of 2016, mainly due to the impact of trade tensions between the US and China, the fears associated with Brexit, the weakening of the multilateral trade, the lack of leadership, and the rise of populism.
Globally, the slowdown in growth is confirmed, although better prospects are maintained for 2020. In advanced economies, there is a less robust & synchronised progress, symptoms of nearing the end of the expansion phase of the business cycle, and the US & euro area economies are decoupling. The US maintains a growth rate of over 2% per year & an unemployment rate at record lows, although the expansionary effect of its fiscal policy is beginning to subside. On the other hand, there is less dynamism in the EU, mainly due to the weakness of the German industry, the political & economic fragility of Italy, and the institutional crisis of the United Kingdom stemming from the indetermination of the final agreement of the Brexit.
Macroeconomic imbalances persist in emerging countries, mainly in Turkey and Argentina, given their high debt levels, and the evolution of their growth & inflation rates. All this in a context contingent on the monetary policy of the main central banks, the evolution of oil price & other raw materials, the trade war, and lower profits margins.
View more documents https://circulodeempresarios.org/en/coleccion/informe-trimestral-en/
Global growth continues to remain tepid. In US, new data releases are pointing towards a mild recovery, but not compelling enough to force the Federal Reserve to change its monetary policy stance. Labour market is recovering slowly and unemployment rate has continued to decline. On the domestic front, inflation has continued to remain subdued. Given the downward trajectory of inflation and limited upside risks in the wake of benign global commodity prices, the Central Bank chose to cut interest rates by 50 bps in end-September 2015.
In the current issue of Economy Matters, we analyse the growth prospects of Euro Area economies and US economy, in the section on Global Trends. In Domestic Trends, data trends in IIP, inflation, trade and monetary policy are analysed. Corporate Performance section analyses the corporate results for 1QFY16. The Sectoral Spotlight for this issue is on ‘Make in India and the Potential for Job Creation’. In Focus of the Month, the important issue of ‘Financial Inclusion’ has been covered.
This report provides an in-depth analysis of the current economic landscape in major economies, such as the USA, UK, China, India, Japan, and key alliances such as G7, BRICS, and ASEAN. Additionally, it offers forecasts for the future economic outlook.
Running head COMPARISON OF SOUTH KOREA AND USA .docxtodd271
Running head: COMPARISON OF SOUTH KOREA AND USA 1
COMPARISON OF SOUTH KOREA AND USA 6
COMPARISON OF SOUTH KOREA AND USA
Applied Managerial Economic
April 15, 2020
To asses and look at the Gross domestic product and different elements of the nation, it is significant for rulers to contemplate the administrative, financial aspects. Administrative, financial matters are the training of how phenomenal assets are assimilated most expertly to achieve administrative zones. It is an esteemed gear for inspecting business conditions to take better ends. We can concentrate as a matter of first importance the interest and its different components influencing the interest; it would be the primary substances of any nation or individual development. To assess the Gross domestic product of any nation, it is significant for the researcher to look at the interest capacities and their employment rate.
In 2018, the normal inflation rate in South Korea added up to about 1.48 percent contrasted with the earlier year, while in the USA added up to about 2.4 percent.
High paces of inflations are unfortunate, much the same as low rates, and South Korea is right now battling with the last mentioned. South Korea is really a prosperous nation and at present positions eleventh on the rundown of the 20 nations with the biggest Gross domestic product; however, its inflation rate is liable to worry, as it is right now at levels beneath 2 percent (Plecher, 2019).
Notwithstanding, there is still an expectation that inflation will come back to steady rates somewhere in the range of 3 and 4.5 percent. At present, South Korea is endeavoring to adjust its dependence on exports by growing the services industry, particularly as the export marketplace declines.
Gross domestic product is the aggregate of business offering manufactured in a nation annually; it is a solid pointer of financial quality. In 2018, South Korea's Gross domestic product was about 1.72 trillion U.S. dollars. While the USA's Gross domestic product was about 20.58 trillion dollars
In the USA, the economy is relied upon to develop at a gentler pace this year. Obscuring monetary upgrade and frail business venture will diminish development, while further drawback dangers radiate from a submissive worldwide crisis, the coronavirus epidemic and the impacts of waiting for exchange pressures. Economists see Gross domestic product extending 1.7% in 2020, declining 0.1 rate points from previous month prediction and in 2021, its 1.8 percent (U.S. Economic Outlook, 2020).
In South Korea, this year, monetary development is relied upon to speed up marginally because of improvement in fixed speculation and as the innovation and development parts fortify. Eventually, more vulnerable than-anticipated development in China, the coronavirus pandemic in the locale and political strains with Japan present significant draw.
This document provides a monthly report from the Bank of Japan on recent economic and financial developments in Japan. It summarizes that Japan's economy has stopped weakening and shown some signs of picking up. Exports have stopped decreasing as overseas economies gradually pick up. Domestic demand such as public investment and housing investment are also gradually increasing. The Bank expects Japan's economy to return to a moderate recovery path, led by resilient domestic demand and gradually increasing growth in overseas economies. Financial conditions remain accommodative.
Global economic factors influence retailers, including currency movements, oil prices, and low inflation. The US economy is growing steadily but more slowly than historically, while China's economy is slowing significantly from double-digit growth previously. Currency appreciation is hurting emerging markets and export-focused economies. Low oil prices benefit consumers but hurt oil producers and the energy sector. Low inflation persists globally despite monetary policies, keeping interest rates low.
The document provides an economic and capital markets update for October 2010 from GWL Investment Management Ltd. It summarizes recent economic data and trends in Canada, the US, and internationally. In Canada, retail sales fell and inflation dipped slightly due to lower energy prices. The economy is expected to grow modestly in the second half of 2010. In the US, inflation remained subdued while housing starts increased but are still forecast to decline in the third quarter. The global recovery continued with strong trade growth and industrial output increases in emerging markets. Financial markets posted gains in September with the S&P/TSX Composite Index and US indexes rising over 4% and global equity indexes increasing as well. Bond indexes also rose for the month.
Getting back to growth: Global powers of the consumer products industry 2011Alfred_angst
The document provides an economic outlook for 2011 for major global consumer markets and issues affecting the consumer products industry. It predicts strong overall global growth led by emerging markets. The US economy is expected to improve in 2011 due to tax cuts and monetary stimulus, but consumer spending will likely remain cautious. Growth in Western Europe will be slow due to fiscal austerity. China is expected to have a soft economic landing with steady consumer spending growth. Commodity prices and currency volatility pose challenges for global consumer companies.
The document provides an economic outlook for 2011 and discusses challenges facing the consumer products industry. It predicts stronger global growth led by emerging markets. The US economy is expected to improve due to tax cuts and monetary stimulus, but housing and debt deleveraging may constrain growth. European growth will be slow and uneven across northern and southern countries dealing with austerity measures. The consumer products industry faces a frugal "new normal" consumer and changing spending patterns across markets.
Global growth was subdued at 2.1% in 2013 but is expected to improve to 3.0-3.3% in 2014-2015. Inflation remains low worldwide due to excess capacity and unemployment. Unemployment remains high, especially in Europe, with rates over 25% in Greece and Spain. International trade growth weakened to 2.3% in 2013 but is projected to rise to 4.6-5.1% in 2014-2015. Capital flows to emerging markets declined in 2013 and volatility increased due to tapering of US monetary stimulus. Risks to the outlook include a disorderly exit from quantitative easing and slowing growth in large emerging markets.
Ministry of Justice Extradition Eswatini 3.pdfSABC News
The Ministry of Justice and Correctional Services has confirmed that an extradition application for the two men linked to the murder of Kiernan 'AKA' Forbes and Tebello 'Tibz' Motsoane has been approved and sent to the Director of Public Prosecutions in eSwatini.
January’s Producer Price Index increases to 4.7%SABC News
Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) has released the Producer Price Index (PPI) for January, which rose to 4.7% year-on-year, compared with 4% in December.
MEC MAJUBA SADDENED BY THE PASSING AWAY OF THREE TEACHERS FOLLOWING A CAR ACC...SABC News
The Mpumalanga Department of Education has learnt with shock and sadness about an accident which claimed the lives of three teachers along the N4 road towards Mbombela.
Minister Gordhan Announces New Transnet Board Appointments_11 July 2023.pdfSABC News
The nine Trasnet Non-Executive Directors and the reappointment of two will serve a three-year term. Andile Sangqu has been appointed as the new Chairperson.
REMNANTS OF FREDDY BRINGS HEAVY RAINS IN SOME PARTS OF SOUTH AFRICA WHICH MIG...SABC News
The Minister of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs (CoGTA), Dr Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma has called on communities to heed the warning from the South African Weather Service (SAWS) and the disaster management teams across the country.
Letter to the Speaker re extension 14 November 2022.pdfSABC News
Parliament's spokesperson Moloto Mothapo says retried Chief Justice Sandile Ngcobo, who is chairing the panel, has written to Mapisa-Nqakula asking for an extension.
Minister of Justice and Correctional Services Ronald Lamola’s Keynote Address...SABC News
Minister of Justice and Correctional Services Ronald Lamola’s Keynote Address at the Rand Merchant Bank Investment Big Five Investment Conference, 13 September 2022
ANC Social Peace and Stability Policy DocumentSABC News
This document provides an overview of the 2022 Policy Conference special edition focusing on unity and renewal in South Africa. It discusses several global challenges including the ongoing impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, a bleak global economic outlook, climate change, cybersecurity threats, and migration issues. On the continental level, it outlines security issues in Africa including conflicts, terrorism, and unconstitutional changes in government. It emphasizes that continental and regional leadership is needed to address poverty, inequality, and other human security issues threatening Southern Africa.
Education, Health, Science and Technology.pdfSABC News
This document provides an assessment of the work done by the ANC Subcommittee on Education, Health, Science and Technology. It evaluates the progress made in implementing ANC policies in these sectors since the 2017 ANC National Conference. The assessment finds both successes and challenges. Key areas of progress include expanding access to basic education and primary healthcare. However, it also finds that implementation of some conference resolutions has been weak. There are also ongoing issues like inadequate leadership, funding gaps, and a need to strengthen community involvement. The document puts forward questions to guide discussions on improving policies and services in education, health, science and technology.
ANC Legislature and Governance Policy DocumentSABC News
The document discusses policy goals for the ANC related to legislature and governance in South Africa for 2022. It begins by outlining the theme of unity and renewal to defend democratic gains. It then reviews previous ANC resolutions on legislature and governance from national conferences since 2007. Over 144 resolutions were made across eight areas, including reviewing state policies, improving human resources, and addressing service delivery. The document evaluates progress on implementing these resolutions and identifies ongoing challenges like factionalism and failure to implement policies. It proposes strengthening accountability measures and monitoring of deployed ANC members. Additional discussion questions are provided on various topics.
ANC Social Transformation Policy DocumentSABC News
The document outlines resolutions from the ANC's 54th National Conference relating to social transformation, safety of women and children, substance abuse, and empowering vulnerable groups. Key resolutions include:
1) ANC branches must lead communities in addressing social issues and building social cohesion through regular dialogue and exemplary conduct.
2) Legislation against hate crimes and all forms of racism/discrimination must be enforced. African history and culture should be promoted.
3) Education, sports, arts and community organizations can help address issues like substance abuse, violence, and build social cohesion. Street and village committees and safety forums need to protect communities and address social issues.
ANC Progressive Internationalism in a Changing World Policy DocumentSABC News
The document discusses the ANC's pursuit of progressive internationalism in a changing world. It notes that international relations will continue playing a central role in enabling South Africa's development. It summarizes recent global challenges like the COVID-19 pandemic, rise in right-wing populism, and conflict in Ukraine. The document emphasizes the ANC's commitment to strengthening progressive forces on the African continent to achieve goals like the African Union's Agenda 2063. It stresses the importance of strengthening regional bodies like the AU, SADC, and fully implementing the African Continental Free Trade Area.
ANC Arts, Culture and Heritage Policy DocumentSABC News
This document discusses the ANC's policy on arts, culture and heritage in South Africa. It provides context on the ANC's vision for arts and culture dating back to the Freedom Charter in 1955. It then evaluates the ANC's performance in developing and implementing arts and culture policy over the past 28 years, noting that policies have been ad hoc with little input from the ANC. Key factors that led to the marginalization of arts and culture during democratic transition include the ANC forgetting the role it played in the liberation struggle and prioritizing other portfolios. The document argues that a vibrant arts and culture policy rooted in communities is needed to strengthen social cohesion.
This document discusses the need for organizational renewal within the ANC in the context of an existential crisis facing the movement. It outlines two main problems - the ANC has become distant and out of touch, and it is losing credibility and trust due to issues like corruption. The document argues that renewal must address these issues to allow the ANC to fulfill its historic revolutionary mission. It emphasizes the ANC's history of resilience through past crises by renewing its values and capabilities. The current crisis presents an opportunity for decisive renewal to restore the ANC's role as an agent of change leading South Africa towards a national democratic society.
ANC Strengthening Economic Recovery and Reconstruction to Build an Inclusive ...SABC News
This document discusses strengthening South Africa's economic recovery and building an inclusive economy. It provides context on the ANC's vision for the economy guided by ensuring all South Africans share in the country's wealth. While significant progress has been made since 1994, apartheid's legacy remains with high unemployment, poverty, and inequality disproportionately impacting black people, women, youth and those with disabilities. The document outlines challenges over the past decade including slow growth, rising corruption, state capture, and recent economic shocks. It argues the ANC must fundamentally reshape the economy in a sustainable way to meet demands for a better life. The ANC's framework is outlined focusing on structural reforms, industrial policy, and macroeconomic stability to accelerate inclusive growth
This document provides an analysis of the balance of forces affecting South Africa's transformation agenda. It discusses developments since the ANC's 2017 conference that have shifted the balance of forces, including the COVID-19 pandemic, July 2021 unrest, and ANC's reduced election support. It analyzes the balance of forces around the five pillars of struggle: the state, economy, organizational work, ideological struggle, and international work. Regarding the state, it notes issues like state capture, July 2021 insurrection, and need to address poverty and lack of economic opportunities. For the economy, it discusses unemployment, poverty, inequality, and racial disparities. The document calls for harnessing new energies to reengage communities and advance the transformation
Acolyte Episodes review (TV series) The Acolyte. Learn about the influence of the program on the Star Wars world, as well as new characters and story twists.
El Puerto de Algeciras continúa un año más como el más eficiente del continente europeo y vuelve a situarse en el “top ten” mundial, según el informe The Container Port Performance Index 2023 (CPPI), elaborado por el Banco Mundial y la consultora S&P Global.
El informe CPPI utiliza dos enfoques metodológicos diferentes para calcular la clasificación del índice: uno administrativo o técnico y otro estadístico, basado en análisis factorial (FA). Según los autores, esta dualidad pretende asegurar una clasificación que refleje con precisión el rendimiento real del puerto, a la vez que sea estadísticamente sólida. En esta edición del informe CPPI 2023, se han empleado los mismos enfoques metodológicos y se ha aplicado un método de agregación de clasificaciones para combinar los resultados de ambos enfoques y obtener una clasificación agregada.
An astonishing, first-of-its-kind, report by the NYT assessing damage in Ukraine. Even if the war ends tomorrow, in many places there will be nothing to go back to.
‘वोटर्स विल मस्ट प्रीवेल’ (मतदाताओं को जीतना होगा) अभियान द्वारा जारी हेल्पलाइन नंबर, 4 जून को सुबह 7 बजे से दोपहर 12 बजे तक मतगणना प्रक्रिया में कहीं भी किसी भी तरह के उल्लंघन की रिपोर्ट करने के लिए खुला रहेगा।
04062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
Here is Gabe Whitley's response to my defamation lawsuit for him calling me a rapist and perjurer in court documents.
You have to read it to believe it, but after you read it, you won't believe it. And I included eight examples of defamatory statements/
1. Still Sluggish Global Growth
• Global growth remains subdued. Since the April World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, the
United States further increased tariffs on certain Chinese imports and China retaliated by raising
tariffs on a subset of US imports. Additional escalation was averted following the June G20
summit. Global technology supply chains were threatened by the prospect of US sanctions, Brexit-
related uncertainty continued, and rising geopolitical tensions roiled energy prices.
• Against this backdrop, global growth is forecast at 3.2 percent in 2019, picking up to 3.5 percent
in 2020 (0.1 percentage point lower than in the April WEO projections for both years). GDP
releases so far this year, together with generally softening inflation, point to weaker-than-
anticipated global activity. Investment and demand for consumer durables have been subdued
across advanced and emerging market economies as firms and households continue to hold back
on long-term spending. Accordingly, global trade, which is intensive in machinery and consumer
durables, remains sluggish. The projected growth pickup in 2020 is precarious, presuming
stabilization in currently stressed emerging market and developing economies and progress
toward resolving trade policy differences.
• Risks to the forecast are mainly to the downside. They include further trade and technology
tensions that dent sentiment and slow investment; a protracted increase in risk aversion that
exposes the financial vulnerabilities continuing to accumulate after years of low interest rates;
and mounting disinflationary pressures that increase debt service difficulties, constrain monetary
policy space to counter downturns, and make adverse shocks more persistent than normal.
• Multilateral and national policy actions are vital to place global growth on a stronger footing.
The pressing needs include reducing trade and technology tensions and expeditiously resolving
uncertainty around trade agreements (including between the United Kingdom and the European
Union and the free trade area encompassing Canada, Mexico, and the United States). Specifically,
countries should not use tariffs to target bilateral trade balances or as a substitute for dialogue to
pressure others for reforms. With subdued final demand and muted inflation, accommodative
monetary policy is appropriate in advanced economies and in emerging market and developing
economies where expectations are anchored. Fiscal policy should balance multiple objectives:
smoothing demand as needed, protecting the vulnerable, bolstering growth potential with spending
that supports structural reforms, and ensuring sustainable public finances over the medium term. If
growth weakens relative to the baseline, macroeconomic policies will need to turn more
accommodative, depending on country circumstances. Priorities across all economies are to
enhance inclusion, strengthen resilience, and address constraints on potential output growth.
July 23, 2019
2. 2 WEO Update, July 2019
Subdued Momentum
Weak final demand
Against a difficult backdrop that included
intensified US-China trade and technology
tensions as well as prolonged uncertainty on
Brexit, momentum in global activity remained soft
in the first half of 2019. There were positive
surprises to growth in advanced economies, but
weaker-than-expected activity in emerging market
and developing economies.
Growth was better than expected in the United
States and Japan, and one-off factors that had hurt
growth in the euro area in 2018 (notably,
adjustments to new auto emissions standards)
appeared to fade as anticipated.
Among emerging market and developing
economies, first quarter GDP in China was
stronger than forecast, but indicators for the
second quarter suggest a weakening of activity.
Elsewhere in emerging Asia, as well as in Latin
America, activity has disappointed.
Despite the upside surprises in headline GDP for
some countries, data more broadly paint a picture
of subdued global final demand, notably in fixed
investment. Inventory accumulation of unsold
goods lifted first quarter GDP in the United States
and the United Kingdom, while soft imports
boosted output in China and Japan.
From a sectoral perspective, service sector activity
has held up, but the slowdown in global
manufacturing activity, which began in early 2018,
has continued, reflecting weak business spending
(machinery and equipment) and consumer
purchases of durable goods, such as cars. These
developments suggest that firms and households
continue to hold back on long-range spending
amid elevated policy uncertainty.
Soft global trade
Spending patterns are also reflected in global trade,
which tends to be intensive in investment goods and
consumer durables. Trade volume growth declined
to around ½ percent year-on-year in the first quarter
of 2019 after dropping below 2 percent in the fourth
quarter of 2018. The slowdown was particularly
notable in emerging Asia.
Weak trade prospects—to an extent reflecting trade
tensions—in turn create headwinds for investment.
Business sentiment and surveys of purchasing
managers, for example, point to a weak outlook for
manufacturing and trade, with particularly
pessimistic views on new orders. The silver lining
remains the performance of the service sector,
where sentiment has been relatively resilient,
supporting employment growth (which, in turn, has
helped shore up consumer confidence).
Muted inflation
Consistent with subdued growth in final demand,
core inflation across advanced economies has
softened below target (for example, in the United
States) or remained well below it (euro area, Japan).
Core inflation has also dropped further below
historical averages in many emerging market and
developing economies, barring a few cases such as
Argentina, Turkey, and Venezuela.
With global activity generally remaining subdued,
supply influences continued to dominate commodity
price movements, notably in the case of oil prices
(affected by civil strife in Venezuela and Libya and
US sanctions on Iran). Despite the large run-up in
oil prices through April (and higher import tariffs in
some countries), cost pressures have been muted,
reflecting still-tepid wage growth in many
economies even as labor markets continued to
tighten. Headline inflation has therefore remained
subdued across most advanced and emerging market
economies. These developments have contributed,
in part, to market pricing of expected inflation
3. 3 WEO Update, July 2019
dropping sharply in the United States and the euro
area.
Mixed policy cues and shifts in risk appetite
Policy actions and missteps have played an
important role in shaping these outcomes, not least
through their impact on market sentiment and
business confidence. While the six-month
extension to Brexit announced in early April
provided some initial reprieve, escalating trade
tensions in May, fears of disruptions to technology
supply chains, and geopolitical tensions (for
example, US sanctions on Iran) undermined
market confidence (Box 1).
Risk sentiment appears to have regained some
ground in June, supported by central bank
communications signaling the likelihood of further
accommodation. Following the June G20 summit,
where the United States and China agreed to
resume trade talks and avoided further increases in
tariffs, market sentiment has been lifted by the
prospect of the two sides continuing to make
progress toward resolving their differences.
Financial conditions in the United States and the
euro area are now easier than at the time of the
April WEO, while remaining broadly unchanged
for other regions.
Global Growth Still Sluggish
Global growth is projected at 3.2 percent for 2019,
improving to 3.5 percent in 2020 (0.1 percentage
point lower for both years than in the April 2019
WEO forecast). On the trade front, the forecast
reflects the May 2019 increase of US tariffs on
$200 billion of Chinese exports from 10 percent to
25 percent, and retaliation by China. The
downgrades to the growth forecast for China and
emerging Asia are broadly consistent with the
simulated impact of intensifying trade tensions and
associated confidence effects discussed in
Scenario Box 1 of the October 2018 WEO.
The projected pickup in global growth in 2020 relies
importantly on several factors: (1) financial market
sentiment staying generally supportive; (2)
continued fading of temporary drags, notably in the
euro area; (3) stabilization in some stressed
emerging market economies, such as Argentina and
Turkey; and (4) avoiding even sharper collapses in
others, such as Iran and Venezuela. About
70 percent of the increase in the global growth
forecast for 2020 relative to 2019 is accounted for
by projected stabilization or recovery in stressed
economies. In turn, these factors rely on a
conducive global policy backdrop that ensures the
dovish tilt of central banks and the buildup of policy
stimulus in China are not blunted by escalating trade
tensions or a disorderly Brexit.
For advanced economies, growth is projected at
1.9 percent in 2019 and 1.7 percent in 2020. The
2019 projection is 0.1 percentage point higher than
in April, mostly reflecting an upward revision for
the United States.
• In the United States, 2019 growth is expected to
be 2.6 percent (0.3 percentage point higher than
in the April WEO), moderating to 1.9 percent in
2020 as the fiscal stimulus unwinds. The
revision to 2019 growth reflects stronger-than-
anticipated first quarter performance. While the
headline number was strong on the back of
robust exports and inventory accumulation,
domestic demand was somewhat softer than
expected and imports weaker as well, in part
reflecting the effect of tariffs. These
developments point to slowing momentum over
the rest of the year.
• Growth in the euro area is projected at
1.3 percent in 2019 and 1.6 percent in 2020
(0.1 percentage point higher than in April). The
forecast for 2019 is revised down slightly for
Germany (due to weaker-than-expected external
demand, which also weighs on investment), but
it is unchanged for France (where fiscal
measures are expected to support growth and the
4. 4 WEO Update, July 2019
negative effects of street protests are
dissipating) and Italy (where the uncertain
fiscal outlook is similar to April’s, taking a toll
on investment and domestic demand). Growth
has been revised up for 2019 in Spain,
reflecting strong investment and weak imports
at the start of the year. Euro area growth is
expected to pick up over the remainder of this
year and into 2020, as external demand is
projected to recover and temporary factors
(including the dip in German car registrations
and French street protests) continue to fade.
• The United Kingdom is set to expand at
1.3 percent in 2019 and 1.4 percent in 2020
(0.1 percentage point higher in 2019 than
forecast in the April WEO). The upward
revision reflects a stronger-than-anticipated
first quarter outturn boosted by pre-Brexit
inventory accumulation and stockpiling. This
is likely to be partially offset by payback over
the remainder of the year. Monthly GDP for
April recorded a sharp contraction, in part
driven by major car manufacturers bringing
forward regular annual shutdowns as part of
Brexit contingency plans. The forecast
assumes an orderly Brexit followed by a
gradual transition to the new regime. However,
as of mid-July, the ultimate form of Brexit
remained highly uncertain.
• Japan’s economy is set to grow by 0.9 percent
in 2019 (0.1 percentage point lower than
anticipated in the April WEO). The strong first
quarter GDP release reflects inventory
accumulation and a large contribution from net
exports due to the sharp fall in imports, thus
masking subdued underlying momentum.
Growth is projected to decline to 0.4 percent in
2020, with fiscal measures expected to
somewhat mitigate the volatility in growth
from the forthcoming October 2019 increase in
the consumption tax rate.
The emerging market and developing economy
group is expected to grow at 4.1 percent in 2019,
rising to 4.7 percent in 2020. The forecasts for 2019
and 2020 are 0.3 and 0.1 percentage point lower,
respectively, than in April, reflecting downward
revisions in all major regions.
• Emerging and developing Asia is expected to
grow at 6.2 percent in 2019–20. The forecast is
0.1 percentage point lower than in the April
WEO for both years, largely reflecting the
impact of tariffs on trade and investment. In
China, the negative effects of escalating tariffs
and weakening external demand have added
pressure to an economy already in the midst of a
structural slowdown and needed regulatory
strengthening to rein in high dependence on
debt. With policy stimulus expected to support
activity in the face of the adverse external
shock, growth is forecast at 6.2 percent in 2019
and 6.0 percent in 2020—0.1 percentage point
lower each year relative to the April WEO
projection. India’s economy is set to grow at
7.0 percent in 2019, picking up to 7.2 percent in
2020. The downward revision of 0.3 percentage
point for both years reflects a weaker-than-
expected outlook for domestic demand.
• The subdued outlook for emerging and
developing Europe in 2019 largely reflects
prospects for Turkey, where—after a growth
surprise in the first quarter from stronger-than-
expected fiscal support—the contraction in
activity associated with needed policy
adjustments is projected to resume. Several
other countries in central and eastern Europe are
experiencing strong growth on the back of
resilient domestic demand and rising wages.
The region is expected to grow at 1 percent in
2019 (0.2 percentage point higher than in the
April WEO, buoyed by robust first quarter
growth). Growth is expected to improve to 2.3
percent in 2020 (0.5 percentage point lower than
in the April WEO, largely reflecting the
5. 5 WEO Update, July 2019
projected growth slowdown for the remainder
of 2019 in Turkey).
• In Latin America, activity slowed notably at
the start of the year across several economies,
mostly reflecting idiosyncratic developments.
The region is now expected to grow at
0.6 percent this year (0.8 percentage point
lower than in the April WEO), recovering to
2.3 percent in 2020. The sizable downward
revision for 2019 reflects downgrades to Brazil
(where sentiment has weakened considerably
as uncertainty persists about the approval of
pension and other structural reforms) and
Mexico (where investment remains weak and
private consumption has slowed, reflecting
policy uncertainty, weakening confidence, and
rising borrowing costs, which could climb
further following the recent sovereign rating
downgrade). Argentina’s economy contracted
in the first quarter of the year, although at a
slower pace than in 2018. The growth forecast
for 2019 is revised down slightly compared
with the April WEO, and the recovery in 2020
is now projected to be more modest. Chile’s
growth projection is revised down slightly,
following weaker-than-expected performance
at the start of the year, but is expected to pick
up in 2020 helped by more accommodative
policies. The deep humanitarian crisis and
economic implosion in Venezuela continue to
have a devastating impact, with the economy
expected to shrink about 35 percent in 2019.
• Growth in the Middle East, North Africa,
Afghanistan, and Pakistan region is expected
to be 1.0 percent in 2019, rising to about
3.0 percent in 2020. The forecast for 2019 is
0.5 percentage point lower than in the April
WEO, largely due to the downward revision to
the forecast for Iran (owing to the crippling
effect of tighter US sanctions). Civil strife
across other economies, including Syria and
Yemen, add to the difficult outlook for the
region. Partially offsetting these developments
are improved prospects for Saudi Arabia’s
economy—the non-oil sector is expected to
strengthen in 2019 with higher government
spending and improved confidence, and in 2020
with an increase in oil sector growth.
• In sub-Saharan Africa, growth is expected at
3.4 percent in 2019 and 3.6 percent in 2020,
0.1 percentage point lower for both years than in
the April WEO, as strong growth in many non-
resource-intensive countries partially offsets the
lackluster performance of the region’s largest
economies. Higher, albeit volatile, oil prices
have supported the outlook for Angola, Nigeria,
and other oil-exporting countries in the region.
But growth in South Africa is expected at a more
subdued pace in 2019 than projected in the April
WEO following a very weak first quarter,
reflecting a larger-than-anticipated impact of
strike activity and energy supply issues in
mining and weak agricultural production.
• Activity in the Commonwealth of Independent
States is projected to grow at 1.9 percent in
2019, picking up to 2.4 percent in 2020. The
0.3 percentage point downward revision to 2019
growth reflects a downgrade to Russia’s outlook
following a weak first quarter.
Downside Risks Dominate
Downside risks have intensified since the April
2019 WEO. They include escalating trade and
technology tensions, the possibility of a protracted
risk-off episode that exposes financial
vulnerabilities accumulated over years of low
interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and mounting
disinflationary pressures that make adverse shocks
more persistent.
Disruptions to trade and tech supply chains:
Business confidence and financial market sentiment
have been repeatedly buffeted since early 2018 by a
still-unfolding sequence of US tariff actions,
6. 6 WEO Update, July 2019
retaliation by trading partners, and prolonged
uncertainty surrounding the United Kingdom’s
withdrawal from the European Union. In May, the
breadth of the tensions widened to include the
prospect of US actions relating to Chinese
technology companies and the US threat to levy
tariffs on Mexico in the absence of measures to
curb cross-border migration. While the tensions
abated in June, durable agreements to resolve
differences remain subject to possibly protracted
and difficult negotiations. The principal risk factor
to the global economy is that adverse
developments—including further US-China tariffs,
US auto tariffs, or a no-deal Brexit—sap
confidence, weaken investment, dislocate global
supply chains, and severely slow global growth
below the baseline.
Abrupt shifts in risk sentiment: As discussed
earlier, the increase in US-China trade tensions in
May caused a rapid deterioration in global risk
appetite. While sentiment improved in June,
potential triggers for other such risk-off episodes
abound, including further increases in trade
tensions; protracted fiscal policy uncertainty and
worsening debt dynamics in some high-debt
countries; an intensification of the stress in large
emerging markets currently in the midst of
difficult macroeconomic adjustment processes
(such as in Argentina and Turkey); or a sharper-
than-expected slowdown in China, which is
dealing with multiple growth pressures from trade
tensions and needed domestic regulatory
strengthening. A risk-off episode, depending on its
severity, could expose financial vulnerabilities
accumulated during years of low interest rates as
highly leveraged borrowers find it difficult to roll
over their debt and as capital flows retrench from
emerging market and frontier economies.
Disinflationary pressures: Concerns about
disinflationary spirals eased during the period of
the cyclical upswing of mid-2016 to mid-2018.
Slower global growth and the drop in core
inflation across advanced and emerging market
economies have revived this risk. Lower inflation
and entrenched lower inflation expectations increase
debt service difficulties for borrowers, weigh on
corporate investment spending, and constrain the
monetary policy space central banks have to counter
downturns, meaning that growth could be
persistently lower for any given adverse shock.
Climate change, political risks, conflict: Climate
change remains an overarching threat to health and
livelihoods in many countries, as well as to global
economic activity. Domestic policy mitigation
strategies are failing to muster wide societal support
in some countries. Meanwhile, international
cooperation is diluted by the non-participation of
key countries. Other risks previously discussed in
the April WEO have become even more salient in
recent months, notably rising geopolitical tensions
in the Persian Gulf. At the same time, civil strife in
many countries raises the risks of horrific
humanitarian costs, migration strains in neighboring
countries, and, together with geopolitical tensions,
higher volatility in commodity markets.
Policy Priorities
Considering that the projected pickup in global
growth remains precarious and subject to downside
risks, appropriately calibrated macroeconomic
policies are central to stabilizing activity and
strengthening the foundations of the recovery. As a
corollary, policy missteps and associated
uncertainty will have a severely debilitating effect
on sentiment, growth, and job creation.
At the multilateral level, the pressing needs are,
first, to reduce trade and technology tensions and,
second, to expeditiously resolve uncertainty around
changes to long-standing trade agreements
(including those between the United Kingdom and
the European Union as well as between Canada,
Mexico, and the United States). Specifically,
countries should not use tariffs to target bilateral
trade balances. More fundamentally, trade disputes
7. 7 WEO Update, July 2019
may be symptoms of deeper frustration with gaps
in the rules-based multilateral trading system.
Policymakers should cooperatively address these
gaps and strengthen the rules-based multilateral
trading system, including by ensuring continued
enforcement of existing World Trade Organization
(WTO) rules through a well-functioning WTO
dispute settlement system; resolving the deadlock
over its appellate body; modernizing WTO rules to
encompass areas such as digital services,
subsidies, and technology transfer; and advancing
negotiations in new areas such as digital trade.
Other key areas that call for enhanced international
cooperation include mitigating and adapting to
climate change, addressing cross-border tax
evasion and corruption, and avoiding a rollback of
financial regulatory reforms. Policymakers should
ensure multilateral institutions remain adequately
resourced to counteract disruptive portfolio
adjustments in a world economy heavily laden
with debt.
At the national level, key priorities shared across
countries include enhancing inclusion,
strengthening resilience to turbulent turns in
international financial markets, and addressing
constraints that inhibit potential output growth
(which for some means implementing product and
labor market reforms to boost productivity and for
others means raising labor force participation
rates). More specifically, across country groups,
• For advanced economies, where growth in
final demand is generally subdued, inflation
pressure is muted, and market-pricing-implied
measures of inflation expectations have dipped
in recent months, accommodative monetary
policy remains appropriate. Monetary
accommodation can, however, foster financial
vulnerabilities, for which stronger
macroprudential policies and a more proactive
supervisory approach will be essential to curb
financial market excesses. In some countries,
bank balance sheets need further repair to
mitigate the risk of sovereign-bank feedback
loops. Fiscal policy should balance multiple
objectives: smoothing demand as needed,
protecting the vulnerable, bolstering growth
potential with spending that supports structural
reforms, and ensuring sustainable public
finances over the medium term. If growth
weakens more than envisaged in the baseline,
depending on country circumstances,
macroeconomic policies should turn more
accommodative.
• Across emerging market and developing
economies, the recent softening of inflation
gives central banks the option of becoming
accommodative, especially where output is
below potential and inflation expectations are
anchored. Debt has increased rapidly across
many economies. Fiscal policy should therefore
focus on containing debt while prioritizing
needed infrastructure and social spending over
recurrent expenditure and poorly targeted
subsidies. This is particularly important in low-
income developing economies to help them
advance toward the United Nations Sustainable
Development Goals. Macroprudential policies
should ensure adequate capital and liquidity
buffers to guard against disruptive shifts in
global portfolios. Efforts to minimize balance
sheet currency and maturity mismatches remain
vital at a time when financial sentiment can
rapidly switch to risk-off mode and will also
ensure that these vulnerabilities do not hinder
the essential buffering role of flexible exchange
rates.
8. 8 WEO Update, July 2019
Q4
2017 2018 2019 2020 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
World Output 3.8 3.6 3.2 3.5 –0.1 –0.1 3.3 3.4 3.5
Advanced Economies 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.7 0.1 0.0 2.0 1.8 1.8
United States 2.2 2.9 2.6 1.9 0.3 0.0 3.0 2.3 1.9
Euro Area 2.4 1.9 1.3 1.6 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.6 1.5
Germany 3/ 2.2 1.4 0.7 1.7 –0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.2
France 2.3 1.7 1.3 1.4 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.3 1.4
Italy 1.7 0.9 0.1 0.8 0.0 –0.1 0.0 0.5 0.9
Spain 3.0 2.6 2.3 1.9 0.2 0.0 2.3 2.1 1.9
Japan 1.9 0.8 0.9 0.4 –0.1 –0.1 0.3 0.2 1.4
United Kingdom 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.4 0.1 0.0 1.4 1.2 1.6
Canada 3.0 1.9 1.5 1.9 0.0 0.0 1.6 1.8 1.7
Other Advanced Economies 4/ 2.9 2.6 2.1 2.4 –0.1 –0.1 2.3 2.4 2.4
Emerging Market and Developing Economies 4.8 4.5 4.1 4.7 –0.3 –0.1 4.5 4.8 4.9
Commonwealth ofIndependentStates 2.2 2.7 1.9 2.4 –0.3 0.1 3.1 2.2 1.4
Russia 1.6 2.3 1.2 1.9 –0.4 0.2 2.9 2.0 1.0
Excluding Russia 3.5 3.9 3.5 3.7 0.0 0.0 . . . . . . . . .
Emerging and Developing Asia 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.2 –0.1 –0.1 6.0 6.3 6.1
China 6.8 6.6 6.2 6.0 –0.1 –0.1 6.4 6.1 5.9
India 5/ 7.2 6.8 7.0 7.2 –0.3 –0.3 5.8 7.7 7.1
ASEAN-5 6/ 5.3 5.2 5.0 5.1 –0.1 –0.1 5.2 5.0 5.3
Emerging and Developing Europe 6.1 3.6 1.0 2.3 0.2 –0.5 0.7 1.4 3.3
Latin America and the Caribbean 1.2 1.0 0.6 2.3 –0.8 –0.1 0.3 1.0 2.1
Brazil 1.1 1.1 0.8 2.4 –1.3 –0.1 1.1 1.3 2.5
Mexico 2.1 2.0 0.9 1.9 –0.7 0.0 1.6 1.3 1.6
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan 2.1 1.6 1.0 3.0 –0.5 –0.2 . . . . . . . . .
Saudi Arabia –0.7 2.2 1.9 3.0 0.1 0.9 3.6 2.4 2.8
Sub-Saharan Africa 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.6 –0.1 –0.1 . . . . . . . . .
Nigeria 0.8 1.9 2.3 2.6 0.2 0.1 . . . . . . . . .
South Africa 1.4 0.8 0.7 1.1 –0.5 –0.4 0.2 1.0 0.3
Memorandum
Low-Income Developing Countries 4.7 4.9 4.9 5.1 –0.1 0.0 . . . . . . . . .
World Growth Based on MarketExchange Rates 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.9 0.0 0.0 2.8 2.7 2.8
World Trade Volume (goods and services) 7/ 5.5 3.7 2.5 3.7 –0.9 –0.2 . . . . . . . . .
Advanced Economies 4.4 3.1 2.2 3.1 –0.6 0.0 . . . . . . . . .
Emerging Marketand Developing Economies 7.4 4.7 2.9 4.8 –1.4 –0.3 . . . . . . . . .
Commodity Prices (US dollars)
Oil 8/ 23.3 29.4 –4.1 –2.5 9.3 –2.3 9.5 4.3 –7.0
Nonfuel (average based on world commodity importweights) 6.4 1.6 –0.6 0.5 –0.4 –0.6 –1.8 2.5 0.6
Consumer Prices
Advanced Economies 1.7 2.0 1.6 2.0 0.0 –0.1 1.9 1.9 1.8
Emerging Marketand Developing Economies 9/ 4.3 4.8 4.8 4.7 –0.1 0.0 4.2 4.1 4.0
London Interbank Offered Rate (percent)
On US Dollar Deposits (six month) 1.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 –0.8 –1.5 . . . . . . . . .
On Euro Deposits (three month) –0.3 –0.3 –0.3 –0.3 0.0 –0.1 . . . . . . . . .
On Japanese Yen Deposits (six month) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 . . . . . . . . .
Note: Real effective exchange rates are assumed to remain constant at the levels prevailing during April 26–May 24, 2019. Economies are listed on the basis of economic size. The
aggregated quarterly data are seasonally adjusted. WEO = World Economic Outlook.
1/ Difference based on rounded figures for the current and April 2019 World Economic Outlook forecasts. Countries whose forecasts have been updated relative to April 2019 World
Economic Outlook forecasts account for 90 percent of world GDP measured at purchasing-power-parity weights.
2/ For world output, the quarterly estimates and projections account for approximately 90 percent of annual world GDP measured at purchasing-power-parity weights. For emerging market
and developing economies, the quarterly estimates and projections account for approximately 80 percent of annual emerging market and developing economies' GDP measured at
purchasing-power-parity weights.
3/ For Germany, the upward revision to the growth rate for 2020, a leap year, is due to the change in the GDP definition from a seasonally and working-day-adjusted (SWDA) basis in the April
2019 WEO to a nonadjusted basis. The 2020 growth projection on a SWDA basis has been revised down by 0.1 percentage point relative to the April 2019 WEO.
4/ Excludes the Group of Seven (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) and euro area countries.
5/ For India, data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis and GDP from 2011 onward is based on GDP at market prices with FY2011/12 as a base year.
6/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam.
7/ Simple average of growth rates for export and import volumes (goods and services).
8/ Simple average of prices of UK Brent, Dubai Fateh, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil. The average price of oil in US dollars a barrel was $68.33 in 2018; the assumed price, based
on futures markets (as of May 28, 2019), is $65.52 in 2019 and $63.88 in 2020.
9/ Excludes Venezuela.
Difference from April 2019
WEO Projections 1/
over Q4 2/
Table 1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections
Projections Projections
Year over Year
(Percent change, unless noted otherwise)
9. 9 WEO Update, July 2019
Box 1. Trade Tensions, Monetary Policy,
and Global Financial Conditions
Global financial markets have been wrestling
with two key issues over the past three months.1
First, investors have become increasingly
concerned about the impact of the intensification
of trade tensions and the weakening economic
outlook. Second, market participants have been
grappling with the implications of these tensions
for the monetary policy outlook.
The escalation in trade tensions in early May
brought to a halt the rally seen in financial
markets since the beginning of the year. Equity
markets sold off, and corporate credit spreads
widened. Emerging market sovereign bond
spreads also rose, and portfolio flows to these
economies retrenched.
Since mid-June, a number of central banks have
signaled a dovish shift in their monetary policy
stance, citing muted inflation and increased
downside risks to growth. The US Federal
Reserve shifted down the expected path of its
policy rate, while the European Central Bank
extended its forward guidance to keep its interest
rates at current levels until at least mid-2020.
Other central banks have also turned dovish or
communicated a more cautious view on the
outlook (including in Australia, Brazil, Chile,
China, India, Malaysia, and the Philippines).
This has led to further market reassessment of
the expected path of monetary policy. Investors
now anticipate more significant policy easing
from central banks, including in the United
States. This supportive environment has helped
markets regain their poise. Global share prices
have recovered much of the ground lost in May,
and market interest rates have continued to
decline across a wide swath of economies.
1
This box was prepared by the IMF Monetary and Capital
Markets Department.
As of mid-July, 10-year government bond yields
have dropped by about 45 basis points since
March in the United States, to 2.10 percent; by
about 30 basis points in Germany, to –0.25
percent; and by about 10 basis points in Japan, to
–0.12 percent.
The overall impact of these developments has
been further easing of global financial conditions
since the April 2019 World Economic Outlook
(Figure 1).
Figure 1. Global Financial Conditions Indices
(Number of standard deviations from mean)
Sources: Bank for International Settlements; Bloomberg Finance L.P.; Haver
Analytics; IMF, International Financial Statistics database; and IMF staff
calculations.
Note: Other emerging market economies comprise Brazil, India, Mexico, Poland,
Russia, and Turkey. WEO = World Economic Outlook.
This easing has been particularly pronounced in
the United States and the euro area, while
financial conditions are little changed on net in
China and in other major emerging market
economies, in aggregate.
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
2016 2017 2018 2019
April
2019
WEO
Tightening
United
States
China
Euro
area
Other
emerging
market
economies