Selon la dernière étude « Global Economy Watch » du cabinet d’audit et de conseil PwC, les créances libellées en dollars américains, émises hors des Etats-Unis, ont fortement augmenté au cours de ces dernières années, passant de 6 000 milliards de dollars avant l’instauration des premières mesures d’assouplissement quantitatif en novembre 2008 à environ 9 000 milliards en 2014.
This monthly briefing highlights that emerging economies face renewed financial turbulence, that US economy registered robust GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2013 and that the last quarter of 2013 revealed a heterogeneous economic performance in the developing world.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_mb.shtml
Presentación del Vicepresidente Liberman en la Reunión Anual de Directores Ej...Casa Presidencial
Presentación del Vicepresidente Liberman en la Reunión Anual de Directores Ejecutivos Latinoamericanos, en la Ciudad de Panamá donde expuso acerca del desempeño de Costa Rica en materia de inversiones y clima para hacer negocios.
Financial Wealth Management benefits a basic knowledge of the current economic climate. Download this free report on the state of the economy, government, and how they affect YOU.
This monthly briefing highlights that emerging economies face renewed financial turbulence, that US economy registered robust GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2013 and that the last quarter of 2013 revealed a heterogeneous economic performance in the developing world.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_mb.shtml
Presentación del Vicepresidente Liberman en la Reunión Anual de Directores Ej...Casa Presidencial
Presentación del Vicepresidente Liberman en la Reunión Anual de Directores Ejecutivos Latinoamericanos, en la Ciudad de Panamá donde expuso acerca del desempeño de Costa Rica en materia de inversiones y clima para hacer negocios.
Financial Wealth Management benefits a basic knowledge of the current economic climate. Download this free report on the state of the economy, government, and how they affect YOU.
Jamestown Latin America | Trends + Views | Colombia | May 2013Ferhat Guven
Last week, in a visit to Bogotá, Colombia, we held a series of meetings with government officials, economists, consultants, fund managers and real estate specialists, as part of our on the ground research effort.
MTBiz is for you if you are looking for contemporary information on business, economy and especially on banking industry of Bangladesh. You would also find periodical information on Global Economy and Commodity Markets.
Signature content of MTBiz is its Article of the Month (AoM), as depicted on Cover Page of each issue, with featured focus on different issues that fall into the wide definition of Market, Business, Organization and Leadership. The AoM also covers areas on Innovation, Central Banking, Monetary Policy, National Budget, Economic Depression or Growth and Capital Market. Scale of coverage of the AoM both, global and local subject to each issue.
MTBiz is a monthly Market Review produced and distributed by Group R&D, MTB since 2009.
Global growth is moderatng as the recovery in trade
and manufacturing actvity loses steam. Despite
ongoing negotatons, trade tensions among major
economies remain elevated. These tensions, combined
with concerns about sofening global growth prospects, have weighed on investor sentment and contributed to
declines in global equity prices. Borrowing costs for
emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs)
have increased, in part as major advanced-economy
central banks contnue to withdraw policy
accommodaton in varying degrees. A strengthening
U.S. dollar, heightened financial market volatlity, and
rising risk premiums have intensified capital outlow
and currency pressures in some large EMDEs, with
some vulnerable countries experiencing substantal
financial stress. Energy prices have fluctuated markedly,
mainly due to supply factors, with sharp falls toward
the end of 2018. Economic actvity in the Euro Area has
been somewhat weaker than previously expected,
owing to slowing net exports. EMDE growth edged
down to an estmated 4.2 percent in 2018 as a number
of countries with elevated current account deficits
experienced substantal financial market pressures and
appreciable slowdowns in actvity. In low-income
countries (LICs), growth is firming as infrastructure
investment contnues and easing drought conditons
support a rebound in agricultural output.
Standpoint: Global Reflation by Kevin Lings STANLIB
Fears of sustained deflation and stagnant growth in the United States and Europe have been replaced by a more optimistic growth outlook as well as concerns about rising inflation. This has driven developed market equities higher, but also weakened major bond markets.
External Debt - A Comparative Analysis of Various Country Groupspaperpublications3
Abstract: External capital has been a significant factor affecting the economies of developing countries to a large extent.The experience has shown that during the last four decades, most of the developing countries have not been able to reap the benefits of foreign finance and have become indebted to international financial institutions, commercial banks and developed countries. A large chunk of their resources goes to service their debt.It has been well established that external debt of developing countries increased manifold over the past three decades. There has also been corresponding rise in the debt service payments and other related variables showing pressure of debt on developing world. There have been many factors which exerted their influence on debt from time to time and consequently the problem continued to become more severe. The factor behind the increase in the debt burden have varied but are interrelated.. In view of these certain policy implications need to be paid attention. Present paper concentrates on the rising external debt of various country groups of developing countries and the factors behind the huge magnitude of debt of these country groups.
This report draws on over 10,000 interviews with business leaders as well as economic forecast data to better understand the growth opportunities and challenges facing dynamic companies over the next 12 months.
The recent correction in global financial markets has left developed market equities about 10% cheaper and emerging market equities 25% cheaper, removing a lot of the valuation froth that was evident.
Commenting in Novare Investments’ economic report for the third quarter of 2015, Francois van der Merwe, Head of Macro Research, said: “We expect global equities to be supported by continued accommodative monetary policies, soft inflation and a moderate global economic recovery.
Mr. William McConnell evaluates the 2016 economic conditions, concluding that real growth is at a stall despite full employment. This white paper is part of a three part series. William McConnell will publish a white paper focused on the state of the construction industry next month, followed by the state of the surety industry in July, 2016.
Arbuthnot Latham: Global Markets Report Q1 2019Siôn Puckle
Our report discusses general developments within global markets over the first quarter of 2019, with a focus on the issues influencing portfolios. Following an economic and market summary, we expand upon a number of themes before concluding with a review of the major asset classes.
Etude PwC sur la fraude dans le secteur de la distribution et des biens de co...PwC France
http://bit.ly/FraudeRetail
Le secteur de la distribution & des biens de consommation est le secteur le plus touché par la fraude – avec les services financiers –, comme le révèle l’étude du cabinet d’audit et de conseil PwC « Economic Crime Survey 2014 ». 49% des dirigeants interrogés ont déclaré avoir subi une forme de fraude au cours des 24 derniers mois, et ce chiffre ne cesse d’augmenter depuis 2009 (+ 12 points).
Le détournement d’actifs reste la fraude la plus commune dans la distribution (76%), et la corruption est perçue comme le risque le plus important par les entreprises qui se développent à l’international. Mais à l’heure où le secteur de la distribution & des biens de consommation se transforme sous l’influence des nouvelles technologies, une nouvelle menace apparaît, celle de la cybercriminalité.
Etude PwC sur le reporting intégré (sept. 2014)PwC France
http://bit.ly/Reporting-PwC
Selon une étude du cabinet d’audit et de conseil PwC, 80 % des investisseurs s’accordent à dire qu’un reporting de qualité influence leur perception de l’entreprise. Pour près de deux tiers d’entre eux (63 %), la qualité du reporting d’une entreprise pourrait avoir un impact financier direct sur le coût de son capital.
Etude PwC Changement climatique et électricité (déc. 2014)PwC France
http://bit.ly/CarbonFactor-dec14
L’objectif de cette étude est d’identifier, de consolider, d’homogénéiser et de présenter une information complète sur les émissions de CO2 des principaux producteurs d’énergie européens, et d’analyser les principales variations entre les années 2001 et 2013. La majorité des données publiées sont directement accessibles à partir du site Internet des entreprises analysées ou dans leur rapport annuel et/ou dans leur rapport Environnement/Développement durable. Si certaines données peuvent être approximatives, PwC estime que la marge d’erreur ne dépasse pas 10% sur les émissions de gaz à effet de serre directes. PwC ne fournit ni commentaire ni opinion sur les prix de l’énergie ou sur l’impact du CO2 sur l’évaluation des sociétés étudiées.
Les introductions en bourse européennes affichent une forte activité au 2e trimestre grâce aux spin-off,
mais entrent de plus en plus en concurrence avec les processus de ventes.
Jamestown Latin America | Trends + Views | Colombia | May 2013Ferhat Guven
Last week, in a visit to Bogotá, Colombia, we held a series of meetings with government officials, economists, consultants, fund managers and real estate specialists, as part of our on the ground research effort.
MTBiz is for you if you are looking for contemporary information on business, economy and especially on banking industry of Bangladesh. You would also find periodical information on Global Economy and Commodity Markets.
Signature content of MTBiz is its Article of the Month (AoM), as depicted on Cover Page of each issue, with featured focus on different issues that fall into the wide definition of Market, Business, Organization and Leadership. The AoM also covers areas on Innovation, Central Banking, Monetary Policy, National Budget, Economic Depression or Growth and Capital Market. Scale of coverage of the AoM both, global and local subject to each issue.
MTBiz is a monthly Market Review produced and distributed by Group R&D, MTB since 2009.
Global growth is moderatng as the recovery in trade
and manufacturing actvity loses steam. Despite
ongoing negotatons, trade tensions among major
economies remain elevated. These tensions, combined
with concerns about sofening global growth prospects, have weighed on investor sentment and contributed to
declines in global equity prices. Borrowing costs for
emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs)
have increased, in part as major advanced-economy
central banks contnue to withdraw policy
accommodaton in varying degrees. A strengthening
U.S. dollar, heightened financial market volatlity, and
rising risk premiums have intensified capital outlow
and currency pressures in some large EMDEs, with
some vulnerable countries experiencing substantal
financial stress. Energy prices have fluctuated markedly,
mainly due to supply factors, with sharp falls toward
the end of 2018. Economic actvity in the Euro Area has
been somewhat weaker than previously expected,
owing to slowing net exports. EMDE growth edged
down to an estmated 4.2 percent in 2018 as a number
of countries with elevated current account deficits
experienced substantal financial market pressures and
appreciable slowdowns in actvity. In low-income
countries (LICs), growth is firming as infrastructure
investment contnues and easing drought conditons
support a rebound in agricultural output.
Standpoint: Global Reflation by Kevin Lings STANLIB
Fears of sustained deflation and stagnant growth in the United States and Europe have been replaced by a more optimistic growth outlook as well as concerns about rising inflation. This has driven developed market equities higher, but also weakened major bond markets.
External Debt - A Comparative Analysis of Various Country Groupspaperpublications3
Abstract: External capital has been a significant factor affecting the economies of developing countries to a large extent.The experience has shown that during the last four decades, most of the developing countries have not been able to reap the benefits of foreign finance and have become indebted to international financial institutions, commercial banks and developed countries. A large chunk of their resources goes to service their debt.It has been well established that external debt of developing countries increased manifold over the past three decades. There has also been corresponding rise in the debt service payments and other related variables showing pressure of debt on developing world. There have been many factors which exerted their influence on debt from time to time and consequently the problem continued to become more severe. The factor behind the increase in the debt burden have varied but are interrelated.. In view of these certain policy implications need to be paid attention. Present paper concentrates on the rising external debt of various country groups of developing countries and the factors behind the huge magnitude of debt of these country groups.
This report draws on over 10,000 interviews with business leaders as well as economic forecast data to better understand the growth opportunities and challenges facing dynamic companies over the next 12 months.
The recent correction in global financial markets has left developed market equities about 10% cheaper and emerging market equities 25% cheaper, removing a lot of the valuation froth that was evident.
Commenting in Novare Investments’ economic report for the third quarter of 2015, Francois van der Merwe, Head of Macro Research, said: “We expect global equities to be supported by continued accommodative monetary policies, soft inflation and a moderate global economic recovery.
Mr. William McConnell evaluates the 2016 economic conditions, concluding that real growth is at a stall despite full employment. This white paper is part of a three part series. William McConnell will publish a white paper focused on the state of the construction industry next month, followed by the state of the surety industry in July, 2016.
Arbuthnot Latham: Global Markets Report Q1 2019Siôn Puckle
Our report discusses general developments within global markets over the first quarter of 2019, with a focus on the issues influencing portfolios. Following an economic and market summary, we expand upon a number of themes before concluding with a review of the major asset classes.
Etude PwC sur la fraude dans le secteur de la distribution et des biens de co...PwC France
http://bit.ly/FraudeRetail
Le secteur de la distribution & des biens de consommation est le secteur le plus touché par la fraude – avec les services financiers –, comme le révèle l’étude du cabinet d’audit et de conseil PwC « Economic Crime Survey 2014 ». 49% des dirigeants interrogés ont déclaré avoir subi une forme de fraude au cours des 24 derniers mois, et ce chiffre ne cesse d’augmenter depuis 2009 (+ 12 points).
Le détournement d’actifs reste la fraude la plus commune dans la distribution (76%), et la corruption est perçue comme le risque le plus important par les entreprises qui se développent à l’international. Mais à l’heure où le secteur de la distribution & des biens de consommation se transforme sous l’influence des nouvelles technologies, une nouvelle menace apparaît, celle de la cybercriminalité.
Etude PwC sur le reporting intégré (sept. 2014)PwC France
http://bit.ly/Reporting-PwC
Selon une étude du cabinet d’audit et de conseil PwC, 80 % des investisseurs s’accordent à dire qu’un reporting de qualité influence leur perception de l’entreprise. Pour près de deux tiers d’entre eux (63 %), la qualité du reporting d’une entreprise pourrait avoir un impact financier direct sur le coût de son capital.
Etude PwC Changement climatique et électricité (déc. 2014)PwC France
http://bit.ly/CarbonFactor-dec14
L’objectif de cette étude est d’identifier, de consolider, d’homogénéiser et de présenter une information complète sur les émissions de CO2 des principaux producteurs d’énergie européens, et d’analyser les principales variations entre les années 2001 et 2013. La majorité des données publiées sont directement accessibles à partir du site Internet des entreprises analysées ou dans leur rapport annuel et/ou dans leur rapport Environnement/Développement durable. Si certaines données peuvent être approximatives, PwC estime que la marge d’erreur ne dépasse pas 10% sur les émissions de gaz à effet de serre directes. PwC ne fournit ni commentaire ni opinion sur les prix de l’énergie ou sur l’impact du CO2 sur l’évaluation des sociétés étudiées.
Les introductions en bourse européennes affichent une forte activité au 2e trimestre grâce aux spin-off,
mais entrent de plus en plus en concurrence avec les processus de ventes.
Etude PwC/ULI sur les investisseurs immobiliers en Europe en 2015 (jan.2015)PwC France
http://bit.ly/PwC-ULI2015
Emerging Trends in Real Estate® Europe est un rapport publié conjointement par l’Urban Land Institute (ULI) et PwC chaque année depuis 2003. Ce rapport présente les perspectives du marché immobilier en Europe et plus particulièrement les tendances de la promotion et de l’investissement immobiliers, des marchés du financement immobilier, ainsi que les tendances par secteur et par zone géographique. Ce rapport s’appuie sur les analyses de plus de 500 spécialistes de l’industrie, y compris des investisseurs, promoteurs, banquiers, brokers et consultants.
Etude PwC Global Economy Watch (juin 2015)PwC France
Dans leur dernière étude « Global Economy Watch », les économistes du cabinet d’audit et de conseil PwC ont analysé les performances économiques des cinq premiers pays d’Afrique du Nord – Egypte, Algérie, Maroc, Soudan et Tunisie, près de cinq ans après les débuts du « Printemps arabe » qui a entraîné de grands bouleversements dans toute la région. Cette étude révèle les défis et les opportunités qui attendent les entreprises et les dirigeants politiques en Afrique du Nord.
Etude PwC Loan Portfolio Market Survey 2015PwC France
A l’occasion de la 6ème conférence annuelle sur la restructuration des banques et les portefeuilles de crédits réunissant à Londres près de 600 banquiers et investisseurs, PwC révèle sa dernière étude « Market Survey 2015 ».
Cette étude dévoile deux enseignements clés :
• 5 années supplémentaires de transactions sur les portefeuilles de crédits seront nécessaires aux banques pour céder la totalité des créances non stratégiques et des crédits non performants.
• L’Europe Centrale et de l'Est ainsi que l’Italie sont les marchés émergents pour ce type de transactions
Dans sa dernière étude « PwC Golden Age Index : how well are OECD economies adapting to an older workforce ? », le cabinet d’audit et de conseil PwC compare l’emploi des seniors (travailleurs âgés de plus de 55 ans) dans 34 pays de l’OCDE.
Etude FCD, ESSEC et PwC sur la distribution responsable (août 2015)PwC France
Les enseignes de la Fédération du Commerce et
de la Distribution (FCD) se mobilisent depuis de
nombreuses années en faveur du développement
durable. Elles mènent des actions volontaristes
pour réduire l’impact environnemental de leur
activité, mais aussi, conformément aux exigences
de la RSE, en matière de consommation
durable, de gestion responsable des ressources
humaines et d’engagement sociétal.
Etude PwC sur le marché européen des cessions de portefeuilles de créances (j...PwC France
http://bit.ly/PortefeuillesCreances
La valeur faciale totale des portefeuilles de créances cédés en 2014 a atteint 91 milliards d’euros, soit un bond de 27 milliards en un an. C’est ce que révèle PwC dans son étude trimestrielle sur le marché des cessions de créances en Europe menée par les équipes « Portfolio Advisory Group ».
Les experts de PwC estiment que le marché secondaire consacré à la cession de portefeuilles de créances en Europe devrait atteindre 100 milliards d’euros en 2015, les transactions déjà engagées s’élevant à 40 milliards environ.
Etude PwC Low Carbon Economy Index (oct. 2015)PwC France
L'année 2014 a marqué un tournant en matière de réduction des émissions de carbone dans les économies du G20. C’est ce que révèle le cabinet d’audit et de conseil PwC dans la 7ème édition de son étude annuelle « Low carbon Economy index », qui modélise l'intensité carbone des grandes économies – à savoir les émissions des gaz à effet de serre liées à la consommation d'énergie par million de dollars de PIB. En effet, l'intensité carbone a chuté de 2,7% en 2014, soit sa plus forte baisse depuis 2000.
La France fait office d’exemple : elle a réduit son intensité carbone de plus de 9% en 2014, ce qui représente la 2ème plus forte réduction des pays du G20, juste derrière le Royaume-Uni (- 10,9%).
Etude PwC sur le Top 100 des entreprises les mieux valorisées au monde en 201...PwC France
La dernière étude du cabinet d’audit et de conseil PwC « Global Top 100 Companies by market capitalisation » révèle que plus de la moitié (53) des 100 entreprises les mieux valorisées au monde sont américaines, contre seulement 4 entreprises françaises. Apple reste en tête du classement établi par PwC, avec une capitalisation boursière de 725 milliards de dollars, en hausse de 54% (+256 milliards de dollars) par rapport à 2014.
Etude PwC pour Linkedin sur le coût de l'inadéquation des compétences (2014)PwC France
http://pwc.to/1fj0jvd
PwC a réalisé pour LinkedIn l’étude « Adapt to Survive », qui recoupe pour la première fois certaines informations des profils des membres du réseau LinkedIn dans 11 pays et les données issues de 2600 entreprises étudiées par PwC Saratoga, l’une des principales bases de données RH au niveau mondial.
L’étude montre ainsi que la faible adaptabilité des compétences – difficulté des personnes à se former à de nouveaux savoir-faire ou à changer de secteur d’activité – coûte à l’économie mondiale 150 milliards de dollars en manque de productivité et renchérit les coûts de recrutement.
Une analyse qui permet à PwC de lancer l’Index d’Adaptabilité des Compétences, qui positionne en tête les Pays-Bas, le Royaume-Uni et le Canada. La France prend la 7ème place du classement (sur 11 pays étudiés).
Etude PwC : La transition énergétique pour la croissance verte (nov 2015)PwC France
Quels sont les impacts attendus et les tendances du marché français de la Transition Energétique ?
La loi sur la transition énergétique fixe des objectifs ambitieux, définissant la trajectoire énergétique de la France à moyen et long terme
Le cabinet d’audit et de conseil PwC a mené son étude « Carbon Factor » auprès des 20 principaux producteurs d’électricité européens pour la 14ème année consécutive.
Le facteur carbone (exprimé en kg CO2/MWh) se définit comme le rapport entre les émissions de CO2 générées et la production d’électricité correspondante. En 2014, il s’établit à 313 kg CO2/MWh, soit une baisse de 5,8% par rapport à 2013, pour atteindre son plus faible niveau depuis 2001.
GEMO 2016 : un digital de plus en plus cannibale ?PwC France
Dans la 16ème édition de l’étude annuelle « Global Entertainment & Media Outlook », sur les perspectives de l’industrie des médias et des loisirs, PwC prévoit que le marché mondial va croître de 5,1 % en moyenne par an entre 2014 et 2019.
Cette étude, réalisée dans 54 pays, montre qu’avec 3,2% de croissance moyenne annuelle d’ici 2019, la France tire son épingle du jeu parmi les pays matures.
La publicité sur internet devrait y porter la croissance du secteur, et le numérique en général continue de bouleverser le business model de l’ensemble des segments, qu’il s’agisse de l’édition, de la musique, de la presse, des jeux vidéo ou bien encore de la télévision.
Etude PwC sur les priorités 2015 des directeurs financiers (déc. 2014)PwC France
http://bit.ly/PrioritesDAF2015-CP
L’étude « Priorités 2015 du Directeur Financier » du cabinet d’audit et de conseil PwC a été menée du 19 septembre au 31 octobre 2014 sur la base d’un questionnaire de 56 questions, adressé par la DFCG à ses membres adhérents et par PwC à ses clients. 391 Directeurs Financiers ont répondu cette année à l’étude - ils étaient 309 en 2013.
If U.S. politics do not derail the recovery, pent-up demand can drive faster economic growth. Fixed-income outflows appear likely to continue, pushing rates higher.
The global high yield bond markets have witnessed sentiment to risk-off mode. This has since been partially significant growth and diversification over the last few years aided by the extraordinary monetary policy accommodation provided by central banks across the world. The unprecedented liquidity made available at record low yields has thus led to a significant pick up in both primary market and secondary market activity in the asset class. Banking disintermediation in Europe and regulatory changes in the financial sector further contributed to the deepening and diversification of the high yield bond markets even as emerging market issuances entered the fray.
In this backdrop, Aranca’s special report – High Yield Bonds - The Rise of the Fallen – examines how liquidity concerns have increased with changing regulatory environment, rising capital requirements and declining risk appetite leading to decreasing bond inventories at both banks and other dealers even as corporate bond issuances are at an all-time high.
Running head COMPARISON OF SOUTH KOREA AND USA .docxtodd271
Running head: COMPARISON OF SOUTH KOREA AND USA 1
COMPARISON OF SOUTH KOREA AND USA 6
COMPARISON OF SOUTH KOREA AND USA
Applied Managerial Economic
April 15, 2020
To asses and look at the Gross domestic product and different elements of the nation, it is significant for rulers to contemplate the administrative, financial aspects. Administrative, financial matters are the training of how phenomenal assets are assimilated most expertly to achieve administrative zones. It is an esteemed gear for inspecting business conditions to take better ends. We can concentrate as a matter of first importance the interest and its different components influencing the interest; it would be the primary substances of any nation or individual development. To assess the Gross domestic product of any nation, it is significant for the researcher to look at the interest capacities and their employment rate.
In 2018, the normal inflation rate in South Korea added up to about 1.48 percent contrasted with the earlier year, while in the USA added up to about 2.4 percent.
High paces of inflations are unfortunate, much the same as low rates, and South Korea is right now battling with the last mentioned. South Korea is really a prosperous nation and at present positions eleventh on the rundown of the 20 nations with the biggest Gross domestic product; however, its inflation rate is liable to worry, as it is right now at levels beneath 2 percent (Plecher, 2019).
Notwithstanding, there is still an expectation that inflation will come back to steady rates somewhere in the range of 3 and 4.5 percent. At present, South Korea is endeavoring to adjust its dependence on exports by growing the services industry, particularly as the export marketplace declines.
Gross domestic product is the aggregate of business offering manufactured in a nation annually; it is a solid pointer of financial quality. In 2018, South Korea's Gross domestic product was about 1.72 trillion U.S. dollars. While the USA's Gross domestic product was about 20.58 trillion dollars
In the USA, the economy is relied upon to develop at a gentler pace this year. Obscuring monetary upgrade and frail business venture will diminish development, while further drawback dangers radiate from a submissive worldwide crisis, the coronavirus epidemic and the impacts of waiting for exchange pressures. Economists see Gross domestic product extending 1.7% in 2020, declining 0.1 rate points from previous month prediction and in 2021, its 1.8 percent (U.S. Economic Outlook, 2020).
In South Korea, this year, monetary development is relied upon to speed up marginally because of improvement in fixed speculation and as the innovation and development parts fortify. Eventually, more vulnerable than-anticipated development in China, the coronavirus pandemic in the locale and political strains with Japan present significant draw.
After the US dollar replaced gold, the US debt became the attention worldwide, thus the demand for the US dollar continued, furthermore the extremely low interest of the dollar. This helped the US government to borrow great amounts of debt as well as kept the creditors pleased. Due to the pandemic, the US economy retrograded because of the tax cut and unproductive rescue spending plan plus surpassing spending of the government. The rising inflation starts to increase to high levels, which certainly the government must cut back spending or its patterns, while this will lead to uncertain consequences for the long future. This paper discusses several different perspectives on the US government's sustainability as its ability to settle the debt in future, the fate of growth burdened with that debt through the neoclassical mode of growth, and also the effect of anxiety of defaults and unfunded obligations. Inversely, it explores the strength of the dollar with a low-interest rate and its sustainability worldwide. We also propose ways helping of strengthen the fiscal government position and solutions to help the economy recover in long term and to easiest the situation. In the synopsis, we propose something that could affect and shake the global market.
Deloitte global powers of consumer products 2014vishalsingh660
To start a new section, hold down the apple+shift keys and click
to release this object and type the section title in the box below.
Global Powers of Consumer Products 2014
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited (DTTL) is
pleased to present the 7th annual
Global Powers of
Consumer Products
. This report identifies the 250 largest
consumer products companies around the world based
on publicly available data for the fiscal year 2012
(encompassing companies’ fiscal years ended through
June 2013).
The report also provides an outlook for the global
economy, an analysis of market capitalization in the
industry, a look at M&A activity in the consumer
products sector, and a discussion of major trends
affecting consumer products companies.
FDA Website AssignmentGo to FDA website www.fda.gov1. Unde.docxssuser454af01
FDA Website AssignmentGo to FDA website www.fda.gov1. Under “Laws FDA Enforces”, go to the Federal Food, Drug and Cosmetic Act and read Chapter 2, Definitions, particularly the definition of drugs and devices.2. Write a paper, 500 words, describing A. three things that you as a consumer can learn from the web page andB. three things that you as a part of industry can learn from the web page
Background
Following the finish of the common war and the adjustment of the residential cash by the national bank, the principal compensation change process occurred in 1996, and a novel correction in 2008 allowed a singular amount increment of LBP 200,000 every month for both open and private divisions representatives, conveying the lowest pay permitted by law up to LBP 500,000 from LBP 300,000.1 For the following sixteen years, in any case, there were no wage increments despite the fact that swelling continued rising and achieved a hundred percent and the acquiring energy of the Lebanese individuals began to drop significantly.2
In an examination led by the Lebanese Federation of Consumer Protection, Lebanon was positioned first among 14 Arab nations regarding high costs for meat, sugar, tea, and drain, and it positioned second when it came to tomato, potato, and vegetable oil costs. The investigation credited these outcomes to the nearness of ineffectively aggressive buyer markets (restraining infrastructures), and to the non-implementation of controls identified with settling business benefit margins.3 These variables and others have added to a noteworthy abatement in the offer of wages in the Gross Domestic Product, which a few substances claim to have achieved a low of 30%.4
By mid of 2011, speaks began mounting about the low level of wages that is keeping Lebanese laborers from fulfilling their essential needs in light of rising sustenance costs and the cost of fundamental administrations like power and transportation. In fact, the issue of wages modification wound up noticeably one of the best needs on general society scene over a five-month time frame between September 2011 and January 2012. These discussions were at first supported by a "political open door" that was emerged by the arrangement of another administration in July 2011 and which pronounced putting social equity among its priorities.5 They were likewise convenient on account of the drawing closer of the new scholastic year that involves along the weight of rising school and college educational cost charges.
The procedure began with an exchange among different concerned gatherings, including the Presidency of the Council of Ministers, the Ministry of Labor, monetary bodies, and worker's guilds. Notwithstanding, the level headed discussion swelled into a contention that undermined the solidarity of the administration before coming full circle in the selection of the wage alteration announce No. 7426 amid the January 18, 2012 session of the Lebanese Cabinet.
This area condenses ...
Etude PwC "20ème édition de la CEO Survey" - Janvier 2017PwC France
Quelles sont les préoccupations des dirigeants en 2017 ?
Cette année, plus de 1300 dirigeants du monde entier ont témoigné de leur confiance en l’avenir, leur priorités stratégiques.
Recherche de talents et des futurs leaders de demain, stratégies de développement, poids de la technologie et son impact sur la confiance en l’entreprise, dynamiques opposées de mondialisation et de nationalismes impactent le quotidien des dirigeants. Quel regard portent-ils sur leur environnement ?
http://pwc.to/2k0a12Q
***************************************************************
For the last two decades, PwC has asked business leaders everywhere about the trends reshaping business and society. As we mark the 20th year of our annual CEO survey, we’ve observed just how much the world has changed.
Etude PwC "Total Retail 2015" Sur quoi miser aujourd’hui pour réenchanter la ...PwC France
Dans sa 5ème étude mondiale sur les consommateurs connectés - menée dans 25 pays auprès de 22 600 web-acheteurs, le cabinet d’audit et de conseil PwC révèle que la France a recruté 17% de nouveaux web-acheteurs en 2015, un chiffre en hausse par rapport à 2014.
Infographie PwC GEMO 2016 sur l'industrie Médias et Loisirs (juin 2015)PwC France
Dans la 16ème édition de l’étude annuelle « Global Entertainment & Media Outlook », sur les perspectives de l’industrie des médias et des loisirs, PwC prévoit que le marché mondial va croître de 5,1 % en moyenne par an entre 2014 et 2019.
Cette étude, réalisée dans 54 pays, montre qu’avec 3,2% de croissance moyenne annuelle d’ici 2019, la France tire son épingle du jeu parmi les pays matures.
Etude PwC CEO Survey Talent "People Strategy for the Digital Age" (juillet 2015)PwC France
Dans son étude « People strategy for the digital age : A new take on talent » menée à l’échelle mondiale, le cabinet d’audit et de conseil PwC constate que, dans un contexte de concurrence mondiale accrue, les entreprises ont désormais besoin de compétences plus diversifiées pour rester compétitives : 73% des dirigeants voient la pénurie des compétences comme une menace sérieuse à la poursuite de leur activité (contre seulement 46% en 2009).
Une des réponses consiste à mettre en place une stratégie de diversification des talents. Pour aller plus loin, les entreprises doivent également se tourner vers l’exploitation et l’analyse des données qu’elles collectent.
Etude PwC et Essec "Grande consommation 1985 - 2015 - 2045"PwC France
A l’occasion du 30ème anniversaire de la Chaire Grande Consommation de l’ESSEC, les experts du cabinet d’audit et de conseil PwC ont imaginé les grandes évolutions du secteur de la distribution et des biens de consommation au cours des trente prochaines années.
Etude PwC "Bridging the gap" sur les investisseurs institutionnels (mai 2015)PwC France
Selon la dernière étude du cabinet d’audit et de conseil PwC, intitulée « Bridging the gap », sept investisseurs institutionnels sur dix (70 %) – parmi les 60 qui ont été interrogés par PwC au plan mondial – affirment qu’ils refuseraient de participer à une levée de fonds de private equity ou à un co-investissement si ceux-ci présentaient un risque environnemental, social ou de gouvernance.
Méthodologie :
Pour réaliser cette étude, PwC a mené des entretiens individuels avec 60 commanditaires de 14 pays, totalisant quelque 500 milliards USD d’allocation aux gérants ou general partners (GP) de fonds de private equity. Les participants à l’enquête ont répondu sur la base du volontariat, d’où une surreprésentation probable des investisseurs relativement avancés dans leur approche de l’investissement responsable. Le panel était composé à 30 % de fonds de pension, à 20 % de gestionnaires d’actifs et à 7 % de fonds souverains ou publics. Parmi les répondants figuraient de grands fonds de pension du monde entier, comme le CalSTRS (caisse de retraite de l’enseignement public de Californie), l’USS (caisse de retraite de l’enseignement supérieur britannique), la caisse de retraite de BT, le West Midlands Pension Fund, le Wellcome Trust, un fonds de pension suédois et des fonds confessionnels aux États-Unis et en Finlande. Parmi les principaux gestionnaires d’actifs figuraient les sociétés Aberdeen, Hermes GPE, F&C et BlackRock. 7 investisseurs français ont aussi participé à cette étude comme par exemple BPI France, Ardian ou OFI Asset Management (devenu depuis SWEN Capital Partners).
Etude PwC, AFDEL et SNJV sur "Les 100 digital"PwC France
PwC, l’AFDEL et le SNJV dévoilent l’édition 2015 du GSL 100, classements des principales entreprises de l’édition de logiciels, des services Internet et du jeu vidéo français, dans le cadre de l’étude « Les 100 digital » qui décrypte les tendances et les progressions des entreprises de la French tech.
Etude PwC sur l'économie collaborative (mai 2015)PwC France
En dix ans, le concept d'économie collaborative est devenu un véritable marché impliquant de nombreuses startups comme des grandes entreprises internationales. Alors que ce marché représente aujourd’hui 15 milliards de dollars, le cabinet d’audit et de conseil PwC estime qu’il atteindra 335 milliards de dollars d’ici à 2025.
Source
Les données relatives aux consommations collaboratives des Américains sont issues de l’étude « Consumer Intelligence Series: The Sharing Economy » publiée par PwC en avril 2015. Pour cette étude, 1 000 consommateurs américains, âgés de plus de 18 ans, ont été sondés en ligne entre les 17 et 22 décembre 2014.
Etude PwC sur l'intérêt des investisseurs pour l’Afrique (avril 2015)PwC France
L’intérêt des investisseurs pour l’Afrique continue de progresser, le continent étant perçu comme un marché à fort potentiel de croissance, susceptible d’offrir des opportunités de retour sur investissement très intéressantes. L’Afrique sub-saharienne s’affirme comme la région la plus attractive. En effet, le Ghana, le Nigéria et la Tanzanie forment le Top 3 des pays de choix pour les analystes et investisseurs que le cabinet d’audit et de conseil PwC a interrogés dans la 7ème édition de l’étude « Valuation methodology survey », qui inclut pour la première fois les réponses des investisseurs en Afrique francophone.
Etude Strategy& et PwC "CEOs, Governance, and Success" (avril 2015) PwC France
Les entreprises qui ont subi un départ contraint de leur dirigeant ont cumulé une baisse annuelle de 112 milliards de dollars US de leur valeur actionnariale au cours de ces dernières années. La bonne nouvelle est que les entreprises ont fait de grands progrès sur le plan de la succession programmée de leurs dirigeants
Etude PwC "Collaboration: Preserving water through partnering that works" (av...PwC France
Dans sa dernière étude portant sur l’enjeu de l’eau pour les entreprises « Collaboration: Preserving water through partnering that works », le cabinet d’audit et de conseil PwC analyse les risques hydriques auxquels doivent faire face les entreprises et émet des recommandations pour s’en prémunir. Les entreprises doivent collaborer avec leurs parties prenantes – collectivités locales, industriels, agriculteurs, fournisseurs d’énergie, citoyens – pour assurer un partage équitable de la ressource en eau.
La dernière étude de PwC « 2015-2016 Outlook for the Retail and Consumer Products Sector in Asia » révèle que les volumes des ventes dans les secteurs de la distribution & des biens de consommation en Asie-Pacifique devraient croître de 4,6% cette année.
Etude PwC IPO Watch Europe Q1 2015 (avril 2015)PwC France
Le total des IPO en Europe a atteint 16,4 milliards d’euros au premier trimestre 2015, soit le meilleur début d’année depuis 15 ans.
- L’activité a été tirée par des opérations supérieures à 1 milliard d’euros à Madrid, à Londres, en Suisse et à Amsterdam.
- Sur la place londonienne, l’activité a été plus modérée, et sa contribution ne s’élève qu’à 28 %, contre 52 % au premier trimestre 2014.
- Selon les estimations de PwC, le niveau des fonds levés par introduction en bourse au premier semestre 2015 devrait correspondre à celui de l’année dernière au niveau européen, avec toutefois une dynamique plus soutenue en Europe continentale.
Ces 20 dernières années, le PIB de l’Inde a enregistré une hausse de plus de 1 000 milliards de dollars. Cette hausse s’explique notamment par l’émergence d’une nouvelle classe moyenne rassemblant plusieurs millions d’individus. Dans son analyse « Future of India », le cabinet d’audit et de conseil PwC appréhende les efforts que le pays doit déployer pour afficher une croissance annuelle du PIB de 9% et devenir ainsi une économie pesant 10 000 milliards d’USD en 2034.
Méthodologie
PwC a étudié les opportunités et défis de l’Inde en menant des entretiens avec près de 80 dirigeants en Inde et à l’étranger, et organisé des ateliers avec des leaders des différents secteurs. PwC a également recueilli les avis de chercheurs universitaires, d’analystes économiques et réalisé une enquête en ligne auprès de plus de 1500 collaborateurs de PwC. D’autres pays ayant entrepris une quête de croissance tout aussi ambitieuse ont été observés, parmi lesquels des pays d’Asie et d’Amérique latine à revenu moyen.
Etude PwC sur l'assurance à l'ère du digital (mars 2015)PwC France
L'étude PwC « Optimisation de la qualité de service et de l’expérience client dans l’assurance à l’ère du digital », fournit des conseils pratiques aux dirigeants, notamment français.
Etude PwC "18th Annual Global CEO Survey Insurance 2015"PwC France
L'étude "18th Annual Global CEO Survey 2015" du secteur de l’assurance, donne l’avis de 80 dirigeants répartis dans 37 pays sur les tendances majeures du secteur.
Etude Pwc "Cities of Opportunity Africa" - Les villes africaines révèlent leu...PwC France
http://bit.ly/PwC-IntoAfrica15
A l’occasion de l’Africa CEO Forum 2015, PwC lance la 1ère édition de son étude « Cities of Opportunity Africa », qui analyse le potentiel actuel et futur de 20 villes africaines.
Ce rapport est partie intégrante de la série d’études « Cities of opportunity » dans laquelle PwC structure son analyse des villes autour des enjeux clés pour les investisseurs comme pour les acteurs publics, responsables des politiques publiques de la ville.
Méthodologie
PwC a étudié 20 villes africaines sur la base de 4 indicateurs, eux-mêmes reposant sur 29 variables, dont le détail est expliqué dans l’étude disponible ici : www.pwc.fr. Voici quelques exemples de variables :
-Infrastructure : coût du logement, trafic des aéroports, débit internet, routes et transports publics, eau et électricité…
- Capital humain : nombre de professionnels de santé et de lits d’hôpital, nombre de jeunes diplômés et taux d’alphabétisation…
- Economie : croissance du PIB, facilité à faire des affaires, diversification du PIB, investissements directs étrangers, coefficient GINI…
- Société & Démographie : marché de la classe moyenne, croissance des villes moyennes, taux de criminalité, nombre d’événements internationaux, croissance de la population…
Ce choix de variables est inévitablement subjectif, mais il est basé sur notre expérience de ce type d’étude ainsi que sur notre connaissance du continent africain.
Etude PwC et Strategy& sur l'Industrie 4.0 (mars 2015)PwC France
http://bit.ly/PwC-Industrie40
Selon l’étude « Industry 4.0 » réalisée par PwC et Strategy&, quatre entreprises interrogées sur cinq auront numérisé leur chaîne de valeur d'ici 2020. L’Industrie 4.0, communément appelée l’« Internet des objets », devrait en effet être la cible des investissements des entreprises européennes au cours des cinq prochaines années. L’industrie européenne prévoit d’investir 140 milliards d’euros par an d’ici 2020, pour un gain total de chiffre d’affaires estimé à 110 milliards d’euros annuels.
Méthodologie
PwC et Stratégy& ont conduit conjointement cette étude avec le soutien de Siemens, l’association d’ingénieurs VDMA et le média Produktion. Ont été interrogées 235 entreprises allemandes, issues de 5 secteurs industriels : technologies de l’information et de la communication, télécommunications, mécanique, automobile, électronique et industries manufacturières (chimie, pétrochimie, pharmacie, alimentaire, sucre, papier, verre, acier et ciment).
Etude PwC sur les fusions-acquisitions en France et en Allemagne (mars 2015)PwC France
http://bit.ly/PwC-Fusaq-FR-ALL Dans sa dernière étude sur l’évolution du marché des fusions-acquisitions franco-allemandes, le cabinet d’audit et de conseil PwC révèle qu’en 2014, la France et l’Allemagne ont enregistré le nombre de fusions-acquisitions le plus élevé depuis 2008 et 2010 respectivement, avec 2 019 transactions comptabilisées sur le marché français et 1 601 opérations sur le marché allemand.
Méthodologie
Toutes les transactions (en volume) sont recensées par Zephyr et ont été extraites en février 2015.
Etude PwC sur les fusions-acquisitions en France et en Allemagne (mars 2015)
Etude PwC Global Economy Watch (mai 2015)
1. Will dollar denominated debt become
an emerging economy epidemic?
Dear readers,
In the past year, the US dollar has appreciated by around 20% on a trade-weighted
basis. There are two main reasons for this:
1. the US economy has sustained relatively strong economic growth, particularly in
the middle of 2014; and
2. the US Federal Reserve is further along the path to tightening monetary policy
than the central banks of the other major global currencies (see Figure 1).
A strong dollar, like oil prices, is a rare thing in economics: its impact can be felt
throughout the global economy. In the US, a stronger dollar can put downward
pressure on net export growth as US products become relatively more expensive in
international markets and imports become cheaper for US consumers. But it is the
impact of an appreciating dollar outside the US which I think is of greater concern.
In recent years, many emerging markets have borrowed in US dollars to take
advantage of exceptionally low dollar interest rates that have resulted from the Fed’s
massive quantitative easing programmes. Now that the Fed is preparing to tighten
monetary policy, and the dollar has strengthened, this dollar denominated debt has
become a source of potential vulnerability for many emerging economies.
In this edition of the GEW we’ve analysed country vulnerability and found that:
• the so called ‘Fragile 5’ is now the ‘Tender 2’ as Turkey and South Africa remain
particularly vulnerable to a strong dollar;
• India is heading in the right direction as its current account deficit has fallen but
Brazil and Indonesia are worth keeping an eye on; and
• most of the governments in our sample have a relatively modest ratio of external
public debt to GDP, thus giving them some insulation from the rising dollar.
However, perhaps the main takeaway for our clients is that US dollar credit is
becoming more expensive and is likely to have consequential and sometimes
amplified impacts on financing in many emerging economies.
Finally, Iran’s potential re-entry into the global economic system has been referred to
as a ‘game changer’ for the region; we’ve taken a closer look.
Visit our blog for periodic updates at:
pwc.blogs.com/economics_in_business
Fig 1: The Federal Reserve is closer to raising interest rates than other major
central banks
Sources: PwC analysis, Federal Reserve
Global Economy Watch
May 2015
Kind regards,
Richard Boxshall
PwC | Senior Economist
The likely path towards operating normal monetary
policy:
Where do the major
central banks stand?
Maturing QE assets not replaced
Central bank rate normalised
Interest rate guidance adjusted
QE purchases tapered to zero
Active purchases
Fed
BoE
ECB
2. US GDP grows by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q1
Similar to 2014, the Q1 GDP growth figure in the US faltered this year as the
economy grew by just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter. Consumer spending growth
came in at o.5% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting the fact that households are not
yet taking advantage of the low oil price to increase spending. Instead,
consumers are preferring to increase their savings - the personal savings rate
increased from 4.6% in the last quarter of 2014 to 5.5% in 2015 Q1.
The strong dollar takes its toll on US growth
GDP growth was also constrained by the appreciating dollar which contributed
to a larger negative contribution to growth coming from net exports than in the
previous quarter (see Figure 2).
Despite another year in which Q1 growth in the US has disappointed, and in
which the Federal Reserve is expected to increase interest rates later in 2015,
we expect growth to pick up in the remainder of the year as cheap oil and rising
real wages (real average hourly earnings in March 2015 were 2.2% higher than
a year ago) begin to feed through into higher consumer spending growth. As a
result we expect the US economy to grow by around 2.4% this year.
Fig 2: Slowing personal consumption growth and net
exports contributed to low GDP growth in the US
Since 2012, Iran’s access to capital and trade
markets has been severely limited on the
back of international sanctions. A key
consequence of this was the drop of Iranians’
average GDP per capita below the regional
average for the first time since 1995 (see
Figure 3). But this could all soon come to an
end.
The initial framework agreement between
Iran and six world powers in April, which is
expected to lead to a finalised deal in June,
could be a ‘game changer’ for the region as it
will most probably entail a gradual relaxation
of international sanctions.
What if…?
We think the most obvious area that will be
impacted by the eventual lifting of the
sanctions is Iran’s energy sector, which has
been starved of Western know-how and
expertise for a long time (this is also the case
for its airline and car manufacturing sectors).
Iran’s oil fields are commercially attractive
for two reasons. First, because of their
potential: Iran holds the fourth largest oil
reserves in the world. Second, because of the
relatively cheap cost of extracting oil: the
IMF estimates that Iran’s (external) break
even oil price is $43 per barrel. In fact, if
Iran’s oil production reverts to pre-2012
levels, it could increase global oil supply by
more than 1% or by around a million barrels
a day. Iran also hosts the world’s second
largest natural gas reserves, which have
similarly strong potential.
More trade, more jobs
But there are wider business and
Iran: Wind of change?
70% of Iran’s 80 million population is in the
15-64 age range, which is bigger than the
population of Spain and a key source of
demand. A more vibrant presence of
international consumer goods
conglomerates in Iran could also have
additional spill-over effects in affiliated
industries including advertising, light
manufacturing and logistics.
Finally, lifting the sanctions will mean that
Iran will regain access to the estimated $90
billion assets that are currently held abroad.
At a business level, sophisticated
professional service firms based in the UAE,
Iran’s biggest source of imports, are well
placed to help repatriate some of these
assets. Iran also has a growing and cash-
hungry tech sector, which could be a
potential investment target. More
importantly though, as the amounts
involved are quite large, capital inflows
could have wider macroeconomic effects
including stabilising the Iranian rial in the
medium-term, reducing the wedge between
the official and parallel rates, and putting
downward pressure on inflation. Some
London-based asset managers have already
teamed up with local Iranian firms to
prepare for this.
Most economic history books focus on the
key reforms that have had a long-lasting
impact on countries. The economic
advantages of re-integration must be
tempting. Will the lure of plugging into
global capital and trade flows prove enough
to finalise a deal? We’ll find out by the end
of June.
macroeconomic issues to consider. The
biggest impact for local businesses would
come through re-accessing international
payment systems (e.g. SWIFT). In principle
this should make it easier for Iran to trade
with the rest of the world, so creating jobs for
its well-educated workforce and pushing
unemployment below the 10% mark. On a
longer time frame, exposing local Iranian
businesses to international competition could
also help strengthen productivity.
International businesses also stand to gain
through increased sales. One sector that
could flourish is consumer goods, from
electronics to clothing, which tend to cater to
the needs of young adults and families with
children. The CIA estimates that more than
Source: US BEA
Economic update: US economy falters in Q1
Fig 3: International sanctions have taken
a toll on GDP per capita in Iran
Source: IMF
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
GDPpercapitainPPPterms,current
internationaldollars
Middle East and North Africa Iran
International sanctions
intensified
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1
ContributiontoUSGDPgrowth
(percentagepointsatannualrates)
Personal consumption Net exports
Private investment Government
GDP
3. Payback time! Emerging markets and the rising
dollar
Emerging economies could not resist the elixir of cheap dollar debt
Dollar denominated debt issued outside the US increased from around $6
trillion before the first round of quantitative easing (QE) was introduced in
November 2008 to around $9 trillion in 2014. Currently, the value of
outstanding dollar denominated debt in emerging economies is around $3.3
trillion, which equates, for example, to more than double the annual economic
output of Spain.
But the Fed will tighten monetary policy soon
As the US economy has picked up and QE has come to an end, however, the
dollar has appreciated by around 20% on a trade-weighted basis over the past 12
months (see Figure 4). This also reflects the anticipated normalisation of
monetary policy (see Figure 1) by the Federal Reserve over the next few years,
with an initial policy rate rise expected later in the year.
Strengthening dollar doesn’t pose an immediate risk to some
emerging economies
Economic theory states that there are three key variables which affect external
debt sustainability: the real interest rate, the exchange rate and GDP growth. The
US recovery has set in motion changes in most of these variables. With this in
mind, we have assessed the vulnerability of 14 emerging markets which have
issued significant amounts of dollar denominated debt.
The results of our analysis are, on the whole, positive as most of the key
countries in our sample seem reasonably well placed to deal with the risks
associated with a stronger dollar. Focussing on the larger emerging markets, our
three main findings are that:
• ‘Fragile 5’ now the ‘Tender 2’: Of the so called ‘Fragile 5’ from 2013
(Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, India and Turkey), we think that only South
Africa and Turkey remain particularly vulnerable (see Table 1). Both
economies have suffered relatively large capital outflows in the past 12
months and continue to run high current account deficits.
Turkey is the most vulnerable economy in our sample as it has the second
largest stock of foreign currency debt to GDP and faces the added pressure of
having to refinance around one third of its foreign currency external debt
stock this year. Nevertheless financial markets in Turkey remain calm; our
quarterly updated country risk premium has only increased by around 0.4
percentage points since the second quarter of last year.¹
• India in better shape but keep an eye on Brazil and Indonesia:
India, one of the original ‘Fragile 5’ economies, has improved its position
over the past two years as its policymakers have adopted a relatively tight
monetary policy. Coupled with lower oil prices, this has lowered its current
account deficit from 4.8% of GDP in 2012 to 1.4% of GDP last year. India
now seems to be better placed to deal with a rising dollar than it was
previously.
While Brazil and Indonesia are not included amongst our high vulnerability
countries, we think they are worth keeping an eye on. Both are running
sizeable current account deficits which indicate reliance on foreign lending.
Also, both currencies have depreciated in double digit terms in the past 12
months. Risks are slightly more exaggerated in Brazil, which is struggling to
deal with low commodity prices and is implementing an austerity
programme to improve public finances. The Brazilian economy is expected
to shrink in 2015, which could be associated with a squeeze in revenues for
some businesses. Therefore, businesses with a large amount of dollar
denominated debt are likely to tread cautiously to avoid running low on cash
holdings that they may need to service their debts.
More generally, the fact that high or medium level vulnerabilities still remain
within most of the emerging markets we have looked at shows the
importance for businesses of stress testing their current and projected
borrowing positions for the possibility of currency and interest rate
fluctuations.
• Governments insulated from the rising dollar: Our analysis shows
that most of the governments in our sample have a relatively modest ratio of
external public debt to GDP (see Table 2). The highest ratio is around 16% in
Mexico. This suggests that emerging market governments have largely
resisted the temptation to take advantage of cheap foreign credit (compared
to the private sector) and are therefore less exposed to the effects of a
strengthening dollar.
¹Visit www.pwc.co.uk/crp to read our country risk premia quarterly update
Fig 4: In the past year, the US dollar has appreciated
by around 20% in trade-weighted terms
Table 1: Turkey, Peru, Colombia and South Africa are
the most vulnerable economies to the strong dollar
Table 2: Most governments have resisted the lure of
cheap foreign credit
Sources: PwC analysis, Federal Reserve
*Number shows total external debt as a % of GDP
Sources: PwC analysis, World Bank, IMF, Datastream
Sources: PwC analysis, World Bank, IMF
Countries Short-term
foreign
currency
external debt
(% of total
foreign
currency
external debt)
General
government
external debt
(% of GDP)
Projected annual
average real GDP
growth rate,
2015-20 (%)
Turkey 31% 11% 3.7%
Peru 12% 8% 4.7%
Colombia 13% 10% 4.0%
South Africa 40% 15% 2.8%
Malaysia N/A 15% 5.0%
Chile 13% 2% 3.5%
Russia N/A 3% 0.4%
Indonesia N/A 14% 5.5%
Brazil N/A 3% 2.3%
Mexico 13% 16% 3.7%
Argentina 40% 14% 1.8%
Thailand 48% 6% 3.9%
India 24% 4% 6.4%
Philippines 15% 11% 6.2%
Countries Vulnerability Foreign
currency
external debt
(% of GDP)
12-month
currency
movement
(%)
Current
account
balance
(% of GDP)
Turkey High 46% -19.4% -5.7%
Peru High 30% -10.3% -4.1%
Colombia High 25% -23.2% -5.0%
South Africa High 19% -12.1% -5.4%
Malaysia Medium 65%* -11.0% 4.6%
Chile Medium 51% -9.9% -1.2%
Russia Medium 37%* -33.3% 3.1%
Indonesia Medium 33%* -11.7% -3.0%
Brazil Medium 24%* -27.9% -3.9%
Mexico Medium 22% -13.8% -2.1%
Argentina Medium 27% -9.6% -0.9%
Thailand Medium 27% -0.5% 3.8%
India Medium 17% -3.3% -1.4%
Philippines Low 20% 0.3% 4.4%
Sep 08 – Lehman
Brothers collapses
Nov 08 – US QE
begins
Dec 13 – QE tapering
announced
Oct 14 – QE ends
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
US$trade-weightedindex(Jan2007=
100)