This document discusses the implications of urbanization and infrastructure development in East Africa. It notes that urbanization is associated with higher energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. The massive infrastructure development expected to support growing urban populations in East Africa over the next two decades presents an opportunity for mitigation efforts. Successful mitigation options implemented at the city-scale can provide co-benefits like improved health, employment, growth and resilience if bundled policy instruments are used. While many cities have climate action plans, their overall impact on emissions is uncertain.

1. What does it
mean for East
Africa’s
development?
Human Settlements
Infrastructure and
Spatial Planning
Shuaib Lwasa, Lead Author WG
III

2. 2
Human Settlements,
Infrastructure, and
Spatial Planning

3. There is far more carbon in the ground than emitted in any baseline
scenario.
3
Based on SRREN Figure 1.7
Economic Growth and Population will most likely continue to
dominate extraction and consumption of these resources
Northern Corridor
Uganda Albertine graben
Oil and Natural Gas off TZ

4. 4
Key Messages and implications for East
Africa

5. “
”
Urbanization is a global trend and is
associated with increases in income, and
higher urban incomes are correlated
with higher consumption of energy and
GHG emissions (medium evidence, high
agreement)
WG III Chapter 12

6. “
”
The next two decades present a window of
opportunity for mitigation in urban areas, as a
large portion of
the world’s urban areas will be developed during
this period (limited evidence, high agreement).
WG III Chapter 12

7. ”
“
WG III Chapter 12
The anticipated growth in urban
population will require a massive
build-up of urban infrastructure, which is
a key driver of
emissions across multiple sectors limited
evidence, high agreement
Existing System
Future System
Based on Old
System
Future System
Totally New
System
Leapfrog
Transformative
development

8. “
”
Mitigation options in urban areas
vary by urbanization trajectories and
are expected to be most effective
when policy instruments are bundled
(robust evidence, high agreement
WG III Chapter 12
Micro to meso-scale interventions

9. “
”
Successful implementation of
urban‐scale climate change mitigation
strategies can provide co-benefits
(robust evidence, high agreement).
WG III Chapter 12
Health, employment, growth,
resilience

10. “
”
Thousands of cities are undertaking
climate action plans, but their
aggregate impact on urban emissions
is uncertain (robust evidence, high
agreement)
WG III Chapter 12

11. Conclusion
• Cities and national governments have started to work towards
reducing GHG emissions
• But future urban trajectories indicate that most likely pathway
for cities is characterized by high extraction and consumption
• Reducing GHG emissions from cities and making them
sustainable is key to a national, regional and global cumulative
reduction of emissions