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1
ADVICE for the WISE
Newsletter – MAY 2013
Economic Update 4
Equity Outlook 8
Debt Outlook 11
Forex 13
Commodities 14
Index Page No.
Contents
Real Estate 15
2
Overall Outlook
“Advisory services are provided through Karvy Capital having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the disclaimer on slide 17”
Dear Investors,
Indian economy is at a crucial juncture. Growth has slowed down to multi-
year low. Interest rates have just about started to come down. Inflation,
though falling, continues to be high (especially consumer price inflation).
Sustained high interest rate environment and a climate of uncertainty
globally that persisted through much of 2012 has taken a serious toll on
the confidence of the decision makers in the real sector in Indian
economy. These low confidence levels led to low private investment from
companies. High interest rates kept real estate and automobile driven
spending to a minimum. The governance logjam due to a series of scam-
related crises for the government meant very slow pace of public
investments in infrastructure as well as slow approvals of PPP projects.
Taken together these factors contributed to a historic low in terms of
investment activity. That has two ill-effects. For one it reduces the growth
in the short term by reducing total expenditure. Secondly it also slows
down the capacity building in the economy. The latter has the effect of
credit off-take fueling inflation when the sentiment does turn around
eventually and aggregate demand does pick up. Seen alternately,
investments serve the dual purpose of adding to income now and capacity
later. A high growth economy like India’s cannot really afford too long a
period of slow growth. There is a real possibility of a vicious cycle whereby
the low investment at present leads to slower capacity addition which in
turn hampers future growth if the growth pick-up leads to overheating
and clampdown by the central bank through higher interest rates and
slowdown in investment activity.
Mercifully, the evolution of any large economy is not as linear as that
while the government taking high growth for granted is a serious concern,
the common persons and companies doing so is a savior. So long as low
growth does not become established in the minds of majority of the
economic participants, higher consumption and investment activities are
likely to pick up in a suitable economic climate. This is why our
observation about the Indian economy being at a crucial juncture. Now
more than ever is a time when Indian economy can slip into long term
growth rate of 5% or rebound to 7.5%-8% - a choice largely driven by
what Keynes referred to as the animal spirits of the participants in the
economy. A mix of accommodative monetary policy, project-furthering
governance, pick-up in real estate prices and equity markets and lack of a
major political upheaval should do the trick for the high growth outcome.
The high risk appetite globally has kept the Indian equity valuations
buoyant – implicitly assuming the best case growth scenario to return. We
expect this special treatment of Indian equities to continue. On the debt
front, the disappointment of the RBI policy for some market participants
pushed the rapidly falling yields before the policy up again. The secular
direction of long term yields is flat to downwards though. Hence we have
shifted our stance to positive on the long term debt front. We continue to
be suspicious of gold since the global institutional buyers have started to
desert their once favorite asset – maybe because global inflation did not
strike despite money printing across US, EU and Japan, maybe because
they wish to avoid the rush-to-exit of an overvalued asset. In either case,
there is too much risk betting against the selling pressure of the hoards of
gold ETF holders.
3
As on 30th
April 2013
Change over
last month
Change over
last year
Equity
Markets
BSE Sensex 19504 3.5% 12.6%
S&P Nifty 5930 4.4% 13.0%
S&P 500 1598 1.8% 14.8%
Nikkei 225 13861 11.8% 45.6%
Debt Markets
10-yr G-Sec Yield 7.73% (23 Bps) (94 bps)
Call Markets 7.77% (595 Bps) 62 Bps
Fixed Deposit* 8.75% 0 Bps (50 bps)
Commodity
Markets
RICI Index 3572 (3.6%) (5.7%)
Gold (`/10gm) 27135 (7.8%) (7.0%)
Crude Oil ($/bbl)
(As on 29th April)
102.8 (5.1%) (13.3%)
Forex
Markets
Rupee/Dollar 54.2 0.31% (3.13%)
Yen/Dollar 97.83 (3.8%) (18.0%)
Economic Update - Snapshot of
Key Markets
10 yr Gsec
Gold
• Indicates SBI one-year FD
•New 10 Year benchmark paper(8.15%, 2022 Maturity) was listed in the month of June, the 1 year yield is compared to the earlier benchmark(2021 Maturity)
4
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
145
155 Sensex Nifty S&P 500 Nikkei 225
25000
26000
27000
28000
29000
30000
31000
32000
33000
7.4000
7.6000
7.8000
8.0000
8.2000
8.4000
8.6000
8.8000
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
`/$
US
Europe
Japan
Emerging
economies
• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had declined in March, increased in April.
The Index now stands at 68.1 (1985=100), up from 61.9 in March.
• US unemployment rate came at four year low to 7.5% in April 2013, signaling that the US job market is
improving.
• Gross domestic product(GDP) rose at a 2.5% annual pace in the first three months of the year, driven
largely by a pick-up in consumer spending.
• The European Central Bank cut interest rates for the first time in 10 months by a quarter percentage point
to a record low 0.50%.
• Euro-zone’s Manufacturing PMI fell down slightly to 46.7 in April 2013 from 46.8 in March, signaling
contraction for the twenty-first successive month. Euro-zone manufacturing started the second quarter of
2013 on a weak footing, with conditions in the sector deteriorating at the sharpest pace in the year-to-
date.
Economy Update - Global
• Japan’s Manufacturing PMI posted a reading of 51.1 in April 2013 up from 50.4 in March 2013 signaling a
solid growth performance, maintaining the trend that was observed in the first quarter of the year and
latest anecdotal evidence suggests a weaker yen is playing a part in the expansion by raising export
volumes.
• The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in March 2013, its lowest level witnessed since
November 2008 and up from 4.2% in January 2013.
• China’s HSBC PMI posted a reading of 50.4 in April 2013 down from 51.6 in March 2013, signaling a
slower growth of manufacturing activities.
• Chinese economy grew at 7.7% in quarter ending March 2013, slower than 7.9% in quarter ending
December 2012.
• India’s HSBC PMI posted a reading of 51.0 in April 2013 down from reading of 52.0 in March 2013,
signaling a lackluster growth in domestic orders coupled with a power shortage that disrupted industrial
activity. 5
Economy Outlook - Domestic
• The country's gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a 10-year
low of 4.5% during the third quarter of the current financial
year, hurt by a slowdown in agriculture, mining and
manufacturing, pushing the projected annual growth rate down
further. The gross domestic product (GDP) had expanded by 6%
in the same period of last fiscal.
• The economic growth in the first nine months of this fiscal
(April-December) stood at 5%. The manufacturing sector grew
an annual 2.5% during the quarter while farm output rose just
1.1% & mining fell by 1.4%.
• The Industrial sector slightly rebounded to 3.3% during the
quarter from 2.7% y-o-y in the June quarter and 2.6% in the
corresponding quarter of the previous year. India’s GDP growth
pegged at 6.1%-6.7% for FY14; FY13 growth seen 5.0%. India's
key eight core sector growth expands 3.9% in January following
2.5% growth in December.
GDP growth
• India's industrial production growth slowed to 0.6 per cent in
February from 2.4 per cent in January. The Y-O-Y growth in capital
goods at use-based level at 9.5% was unexpected. At this rate, the
weighted contribution of capital goods to IIP growth was the
highest since, Feb 2012. In the April-February period, industrial
production expanded an annual 0.9%.
• At the sectoral level, mining sector registered a de-growth at 8.1%
and electricity sector growth declined by 3.2% (the first time since
the new IIP series was introduced in FY2005.). Consumer sector
performance also turned tepid with a visible slowdown in both
durables and non-durables.
• The cumulative growth in the three sectors during April-February
2012-13 over the corresponding period in the previous year was -
2.5%, 1% and 4% respectively.
IIP
6
7.8 7.7
6.9
6.1
5.3
5.5
5.3
4.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
FY11(Q4) FY12(Q1) FY12(Q2) FY12(Q3) FY12(Q4) FY13(Q1) FY13(Q2) FY13(Q3)
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Feb
12
Mar
12
Apr
12
May
12
Jun
12
Jul
12
Aug
12
Sep
12
Oct
12
Nov
12
Dec
12
Jan
13
Feb
13
Economic Outlook - Domestic
 As on Mar 2013 Bank credits grew by 11.9% on a Y-o-Y basis
which is about 7.6% lower than the growth witnessed in Mar
2012. Aggregate deposits on a Y-o-Y basis grew at 10.5%, viz-a
viz a growth of 17.4% in Mar 2012.
 In keeping with the guidance and an increasingly benign stance,
RBI reduced the repo rate by 25 bps to 7.25% in its monetary
policy as of 3rd May 2013. While doing so, it also emphasized
that supporting growth is going to be a priority in days ahead. It
kept the others rates.
 The key triggers favoring the rate cut seem to be lower
trajectory of WPI and core inflation, lower GDP data than
anticipated and of course the government’s intent to rein in the
fiscal deficit.
 The annual rate of inflation based on the wholesale price index hit
a three-year low of 5.96% in March 2013, helped by a fall in
vegetable prices. The wholesale price-based inflation rate stood at
6.84% in the previous month and 7.69% during the corresponding
month of the previous year. This was the lowest rate since
November 2009.
 However, the inflation rate for January 2013 has now been revised
upward to 7.31% from the provisional figure of 6.62% estimated
earlier. Food inflation in Primary Articles came down to 8.73%
from 11.88% in February 2013, while it declined to 7.01% from
8.16% in the case of Manufactured Products.
 India's annual inflation rate, based on all India general Consumer
Price Index, or CPI, as per base year 2010, for February 2013
slowed to 10.39% in March from an annual 10.91% in February.
The retail inflation for the month under review remained in the
double-digit territory for third month in a row, due to higher prices
of vegetables, cereals, edible oil, and protein-based items.
Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs
* End of period figures
7
5.0%
7.0%
9.0%
11.0%
13.0%
15.0%
17.0%
19.0%
21.0%
Bank Credit Aggregate Deposits
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
Wholesale Price Index
Equity Outlook
The month of April saw a sharp cool-off in commodity prices. Gold and crude prices have corrected by more than 12% since early January
bringing a much needed respite for India’s Current Account situation. Concerns on fiscal deficit are also getting addressed as fuel & fertilizer
subsidies come down with fall in crude prices. Foreign investors have continued to invest in Indian equity with an inflow of one billion dollars
in April taking the YTD number to 11 billion dollars.
WPI Inflation for the month of April has touched a forty month low. WPI index has moderated to an average of 7.3% in FY13 with significant
easing coming in the month of March as against average of 8.9% in FY12. This recent downward trajectory of WPI inflation has paved the way
for further monetary easing by RBI. We expect 75-100bps cut in repo rates this fiscal as inflation continues to cool-off. This should lead to a
revival in GDP growth in the second half of this year. The first repo cut of this fiscal happened last week as RBI shifts the focus to reviving
growth. India’s GDP growth witnessed an expansion of 4.5% in Q3FY13 which is lowest in last 15 quarter attributed to lower than expected
growth in both industry and services. RBI highlighted that ‘economic activity is expected to show only a modest improvement over last year,
with a pick-up likely only in the second half of the year. Conditional upon a normal monsoon, agricultural growth could return to trend levels.’
RBI believes that growth cannot revive unless there is a revival in the investment cycle. RBI has forecasted FY14 GDP growth at 5.7% which is
below consensus market estimates.
While headline wholesale price inflation and its core component, non-food manufactured products inflation, have softened, the consumer
price inflation continues to be at elevated levels. RBI’s view is that inflation should moderate to 5% in FY14 consider the softening in global
commodity and forecast of a normal monsoon. RBI believes that the onus of reviving the investment cycle lies with central government and it
expects further reform action in that direction before easing monetary policy further.
The fourth quarter results of Indian companies have been more or less on expected lines. Private sector banks & consumer staples continue
to do well. We expect a 12% growth in corporate earnings this fiscal with good showing from private banks, Healthcare & consumer
companies. The EBITDA Margins of Indian manufacturing firms will get better as commodity prices cool off. Oil & Gas companies will benefit
from the cool-off in commodity prices. The markets continue to trade at attractive valuations and investors should look to increase exposure
to equity at every dip.
8
Sector Stance Remarks
Healthcare Overweight
We believe in the large sized opportunity presented by Pharma sector in India. India’s strength in
generics is difficult to replicate due to quality and quantity of available skilled manpower. With the
developed world keen to cut healthcare costs, and a vast pipeline of drugs going off-patent, Indian
pharma players are at the cusp of rapid growth.
BFSI Overweight
The reversal of the interest rate cycle will assist in managing asset quality better and would lead to
increase in credit growth. However, we like the private sector more than public sector due to
better management quality and higher balance sheet discipline
FMCG Overweight
We like the secular consumption theme. We prefer “discretionary consumption” beneficiaries such
as Cigarettes, IT hardware, durables and branded garments, as the growth in this segment will be
disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable incomes.
Telecom Neutral
The regulatory hurdles and competitive pressures seem to be reducing. Incumbents have started
to increase tariffs slowly and we believe that consolidation will happen sooner than expected.
E&C Neutral
The significant slowdown in order inflow activity combined with high interest rates has hurt the
sector. Now since the interest rate cycle has started to reverse, we have turned more constructive
on this space.
Sector View
9
Sector Stance Remarks
IT/ITES Neutral
Demand seems to be coming back in Europe. US volume growth has also remained resilient.
However, the new Immigration bill in US might make the outsourcing business more challenging
for Indian Players
Automobiles Neutral
Raw material prices have started coming down which would boost margins. Auto loans are also
getting cheaper. We are more bullish on SUV’s and agricultural vehicles segment due to lesser
competition and higher pricing power.
Energy Neutral
With the ongoing price deregulation of diesel, we believe the total subsidy burden on Oil PSU’s will
come down during the course of the year. We are turning more constructive on the space now.
Power Utilities Neutral
We like the regulated return charteristic of this space. This space provides steady growth in
earnings and decent return on capital.
Metals Underweight
Commodity prices have corrected significantly over the last few months due to concerns about
growth in China and developed parts of the world.
Cement Underweight
Cement industry is facing over capacity issues and lackluster demand. With regulator taking a
strong view against pricing discipline, the profits of the sector are expected to stay muted.
Sector View
10
Debt Outlook
• During the week the G-sec market remained range-bound ahead of RBI monetary policy ‰During the week, the Gsec market
remained range bound ahead of RBI monetary policy. RBI’s 25 bps rate cut and RBI’s emphasis to use OMO as liquidity
management tool helped in providing support to market despite its hawkish statement. The benchmark 10-year security 8.15%
GOI 2022 closed the month at7.74%
• In T-bill auction, RBI auctioned 91 days T-bill (Rs. 5000 cr) and 364 days T-bill (Rs. 5000 cr) with cut-off yield of 7.56% (Previous :
7.64%) and 7.48% (Previous : 7.58%) respectively.
• India's fiscal deficit in Apr-Feb, the first eleven months of the current financial year, rose 2.8% on year to Rs 5.074 lakh cr; fiscal
deficit was Rs 41680 cr in February versus Rs 58600 cr a year ago.
• The spread on a 10 year AAA rated corporate bond reduced to 79 Bps on 30th April 2013 from 89 Bps (as on 28th March 2013).
AAA Rated bond yields dipped by 33 bps to 8.52% as compared to the yields a month earlier at 8.85%.
10-yr G-sec yieldYield curve
(%)
(%)
11
7.4000
7.6000
7.8000
8.0000
8.2000
8.4000
8.6000
8.8000
7.0
7.2
7.4
7.6
7.8
8.0
8.2
8.4
0.0
0.8
1.6
2.4
3.2
4.0
4.7
5.5
6.3
7.1
7.9
8.7
9.5
10.2
11.0
11.8
12.6
13.4
14.2
15.0
15.7
16.5
17.3
18.1
18.9
19.7
Debt Strategy
OutlookCategory Details
Long Tenure
Debt
Indian long term debt is likely to see capital appreciation owing to the expected
monetary easing. With the fourth policy rate cut happening in March 2013, with
a 25 Bps cut in Repo and no CRR along with lesser probability of future cuts in
the policy rates in the coming quarter, but along with this is a lot of uncertainty
in the market. Along with the above mentioned things, commodity prices
cooling down, Current account deficit will reduce to a great extent, and these
papers are suitable for both - investors who may want to stay invested for the
medium term (exiting when prices appreciate) and those who would want to
lock in high yields for the longer term.
Some AA and select A rated securities are very attractive at the current
yields. A similar trend can be seen in the Fixed Deposits also. Tight liquidity
in the system has also contributed to widening of the spreads making entry
at current levels attractive.
With the fourth policy rate cut that happened in May 2013, with a 25 Bps cut
in Repo rate and no CRR along with lesser probability of future cuts in the
policy rates in the coming quarter, but as there is influence of global factors in
the market, a lot of uncertainty is coupled with it, hence, we would
recommend to invest in and hold on to current investments in short term
debt Due to liquidity pressures increasing in the market as RBI has a huge
borrowing plan, short term yields would remain higher. Short Term funds still
have high YTMs (9%–9.5%) providing interesting investment opportunities.
Short Tenure
Debt
Credit
12
Forex
• INR has appreciated against two major currencies other than Euro
& GBP. INR appreciated by 0.3% against the US Dollar. Rupee has
appreciated against dollar since the beginning of the calendar year
by 1.03%.
• The rupee has been vacillating in a range between 54 and 55 over
the last two months. Within this range, the currency has rallied
from the low of 54.9 to 53.8 against the dollar since April 5. This
was mainly due to expectation of policy rate cut in the RBI’s
monetary policy
• Volatility as last year is expected to continue as the rupee would
track cues from the domestic markets as well as global shores. If
US economy recovers, the dollar will rally, putting the rupee under
pressure
Rupee movement vis-à-vis other currencies (M-o-M) Trade balance and export-import data
• The projected capital account balance for Q2 FY 12 is revised
from Rs. 84,400 Cr to Rs. 78,800 Cr also the Q1 figure was revised
downwards to Rs. 99,500 Crores from Rs. 1,02,100 Crores.
• We expect factors such as higher interest rates to attract more
investments to India. Increased limits for investment by FIIs
would also help in bringing in more funds though uncertainty in
the global markets could prove to be a dampener.
68531 73903 75512
99033
66748
37298
95500
78800
-10000
40000
90000
140000
FY 10 (Q3) FY 10 (Q4) FY 11 (Q1) FY 11 (Q2) FY 11 (Q3) FY 11 (Q4) FY 12 (Q1) FY 12 (Q2)
Capital Account Balance
Exports during Mar, 2013 were valued at US $ 30.85 bn which
was 6.97% higher than the level of US $ 28.84 bn during Mar,
2012. Imports during Mar, 2013 were valued at US $ 41.16 Bn
representing a negative growth of 2.87% over the level of
imports valued at US $ 42.38 Bn in Mar 2012 translating into a
trade deficit of $10.31 Bn.
13
0.3%
-2.0% -2.0%
4.1%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
USD GBP EURO YEN
-25000
-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Export Import Trade Balance (mn $)
Commodities
Precious
Metals
Oil & Gas
While the expectation of steadier global growth is a good news for
the oil counter given the excess liquidity available, the growth
concerns in China will cap any upside. In the energy sufficient USA,
there is a structural shift towards Shale Gas production amid crude
oil inventories ruling at 30 year high. With no supply disruption in
sight amid feeble global growth, we expect lower energy prices.
Crude
Gold
Having risen consecutively for eleven years, dollar-gold price performance
is one of the best among other asset classes, generating an annualized
return of 18%. The global financial system was flood with central banks
liquidity that had risen risk asset in the year 2012 and this is expected to
further lift risk asset prices in the year 2013. Given this backdrop, one
could expect a decent profit booking on the precious metal counter as the
money flow shall now be diverted to equities that was under owned since
2008. We also expect liquidity to dry up significantly around end of 1QCY
following the ECB’s LTROs amid a sharp pull back in dollar index -following
the Fed’s signal to wind down the stimulus program this year - could
rattle global commodity prices. The controlled measures by the central
bankers to curb gold demand with a prime objective being to shore up
confidence in the monetary and banking system, bullion in all probability
will not be a free market. As bullion derivatives market is far larger than
the size of physical metal, a small trigger is sufficient enough to create a
big impact. Domestically, it now seems that gold has formed an
intermediate top and one could see considerable price pull back going
ahead in the year 2013.
14
25000
26000
27000
28000
29000
30000
31000
32000
33000
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
15
Real Estate Outlook
Asset Classes Tier I Tier II
Residential
A lot of new supply has been seen in the Tier I markets across all price
segments, especially in NCR-Delhi and Mumbai, owing to faster approvals and
expectations of a sales recovery due to the reduction in the home loan
interest rates.
While some of the new launches have selectively seen a good response,
overall sales have still been slow and prices continued to be stagnant in most
markets.
Mid-income residential segment with Rs. 4,000 – 6,000 per sq. ft. entry
pricing with good developers in Pune, Bangalore, NCR and Mumbai suburbs
are expected to see good percentage returns with relatively low risk.
Implications of Budget 2013: The additional one-time tax exemption of Rs.
1,00,000 for home loans below Rs. 25 Lacs is expected to give a slight push in
the affordable housing segment. TDS of 1% on all properties above Rs. 50 lacs
after May 2013 and increase in service tax from 3.09% to 3.71% for flats above
2,000 sq. ft. in size or Rs. 1 Cr. in value may act as dampeners for sale of mid
to high end residential space.
Demand in Tier II cities is largely driven by the trend towards
nuclear families, increasing disposable income, rising
aspiration to own quality products and the growth in
infrastructure facilities in these cities. Price appreciation is
more concentrated to specific micro-markets in these cities.
Cities like Chandigarh, Jaipur, Lucknow, Ahmedabad, Bhopal,
Nagpur, Patna and Cochin are expected to perform well.
Commercial/IT
Prices for the commercial asset class continue to be dampened due to the
historic oversupply. In terms of absorption, Bangalore, Hyderabad and Pune
markets are doing better than the national average.
Rentals in commercial asset class are seen to be rising slowly but they are still
below the peal values achieved in the past. In relative terms, Bangalore
market has outperformed other markets owing primarily to the demand from
the IT industry.
Specific pre-leased properties with good tenant profile and larger lock-in
periods continue to be good investment opportunities over a long-term
horizon.
Relatively low unsold inventory and smaller unit sizes have
led to stable lease rentals in Tier II cities. Not much
movement in the capital values has been seen in the Tier II
cities.
Real Estate Outlook
16
Please Note:
Tier I* markets include Mumbai, Delhi & NCR, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkatta
Tier II* markets includes all state capitals other than the Tier I markets
Asset Classes Tier I Tier II
Retail
In HY2 2012, Government approved 51% foreign
ownership in multi-brand retail and 100% in single-brand
retail. While this move is expected to infuse new
enthusiasm in the sector, it will take a gestation period of
at least an year for this to translate into actual off-take of
space. In fact, completion of a number of malls has been
delayed to defer the construction costs and capitalize on
the expected future demand from FDI.
Currently, unsold inventory levels continue to be high
levels and lease rentals stagnant.
Tier II cities see a preference of hi-street retail as compared
to mall space in Tier I cities. While not much data on these
rentals gets reported, these are expected to have been
stagnant.
The mall culture has repeatedly failed in the past n the
Tier-2 cities. Whether the FDI in retail can change this
phenomenon can be known with more certainty once the
effect of FDI is more visible in Tier I cities.
Land
Agricultural / non-agricultural lands with connectivity to
Tier I cities and in proximity to upcoming industrial and
other infrastructure developments present good
investment opportunities. Caution should however be
exercised due to the complexities typically involved in
land investments.
Land in Tier II and III cities along upcoming / established
growth corridors have seen good percentage appreciation
due to low investment base in such areas.
Disclaimer
The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Capital Ltd. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon
sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information
and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it. This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be
singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. The
investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their
specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any information
or analysis mentioned here, investors may please note that neither Karvy Capital Ltd nor any person connected with any associated companies of Karvy
Capital Ltd accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned here. Each recipient of this document should make such
investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this
document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment.
Karvy Capital Ltd, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses (hereinafter referred to as Karvy) may, from time to time,
make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this
document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and
derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a
company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed
on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or
complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only.
The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above-mentioned assets from time to time.
Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that they
undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other securities
till such a time this recommendation has either been displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy. All employees are further restricted to place
orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd and Karvy Comtrade Ltd.
Any information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investors are advised to consult their
respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. We also expect significant changes in the tax laws once the new
Direct Tax Code is in force – this could change the applicability and incidence of tax on equity investments.
Karvy Capital Ltd Operates from within India and is subject to Indian regulations.
Mumbai office Address: 702, Hallmark Business plaza, Sant Dnyaneshwar Marg, Bandra (East), off Bandra Kurla Complex, Mumbai 400 051
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Advice For The Wise May 2013

  • 1. 1 ADVICE for the WISE Newsletter – MAY 2013
  • 2. Economic Update 4 Equity Outlook 8 Debt Outlook 11 Forex 13 Commodities 14 Index Page No. Contents Real Estate 15 2
  • 3. Overall Outlook “Advisory services are provided through Karvy Capital having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the disclaimer on slide 17” Dear Investors, Indian economy is at a crucial juncture. Growth has slowed down to multi- year low. Interest rates have just about started to come down. Inflation, though falling, continues to be high (especially consumer price inflation). Sustained high interest rate environment and a climate of uncertainty globally that persisted through much of 2012 has taken a serious toll on the confidence of the decision makers in the real sector in Indian economy. These low confidence levels led to low private investment from companies. High interest rates kept real estate and automobile driven spending to a minimum. The governance logjam due to a series of scam- related crises for the government meant very slow pace of public investments in infrastructure as well as slow approvals of PPP projects. Taken together these factors contributed to a historic low in terms of investment activity. That has two ill-effects. For one it reduces the growth in the short term by reducing total expenditure. Secondly it also slows down the capacity building in the economy. The latter has the effect of credit off-take fueling inflation when the sentiment does turn around eventually and aggregate demand does pick up. Seen alternately, investments serve the dual purpose of adding to income now and capacity later. A high growth economy like India’s cannot really afford too long a period of slow growth. There is a real possibility of a vicious cycle whereby the low investment at present leads to slower capacity addition which in turn hampers future growth if the growth pick-up leads to overheating and clampdown by the central bank through higher interest rates and slowdown in investment activity. Mercifully, the evolution of any large economy is not as linear as that while the government taking high growth for granted is a serious concern, the common persons and companies doing so is a savior. So long as low growth does not become established in the minds of majority of the economic participants, higher consumption and investment activities are likely to pick up in a suitable economic climate. This is why our observation about the Indian economy being at a crucial juncture. Now more than ever is a time when Indian economy can slip into long term growth rate of 5% or rebound to 7.5%-8% - a choice largely driven by what Keynes referred to as the animal spirits of the participants in the economy. A mix of accommodative monetary policy, project-furthering governance, pick-up in real estate prices and equity markets and lack of a major political upheaval should do the trick for the high growth outcome. The high risk appetite globally has kept the Indian equity valuations buoyant – implicitly assuming the best case growth scenario to return. We expect this special treatment of Indian equities to continue. On the debt front, the disappointment of the RBI policy for some market participants pushed the rapidly falling yields before the policy up again. The secular direction of long term yields is flat to downwards though. Hence we have shifted our stance to positive on the long term debt front. We continue to be suspicious of gold since the global institutional buyers have started to desert their once favorite asset – maybe because global inflation did not strike despite money printing across US, EU and Japan, maybe because they wish to avoid the rush-to-exit of an overvalued asset. In either case, there is too much risk betting against the selling pressure of the hoards of gold ETF holders. 3
  • 4. As on 30th April 2013 Change over last month Change over last year Equity Markets BSE Sensex 19504 3.5% 12.6% S&P Nifty 5930 4.4% 13.0% S&P 500 1598 1.8% 14.8% Nikkei 225 13861 11.8% 45.6% Debt Markets 10-yr G-Sec Yield 7.73% (23 Bps) (94 bps) Call Markets 7.77% (595 Bps) 62 Bps Fixed Deposit* 8.75% 0 Bps (50 bps) Commodity Markets RICI Index 3572 (3.6%) (5.7%) Gold (`/10gm) 27135 (7.8%) (7.0%) Crude Oil ($/bbl) (As on 29th April) 102.8 (5.1%) (13.3%) Forex Markets Rupee/Dollar 54.2 0.31% (3.13%) Yen/Dollar 97.83 (3.8%) (18.0%) Economic Update - Snapshot of Key Markets 10 yr Gsec Gold • Indicates SBI one-year FD •New 10 Year benchmark paper(8.15%, 2022 Maturity) was listed in the month of June, the 1 year yield is compared to the earlier benchmark(2021 Maturity) 4 75 85 95 105 115 125 135 145 155 Sensex Nifty S&P 500 Nikkei 225 25000 26000 27000 28000 29000 30000 31000 32000 33000 7.4000 7.6000 7.8000 8.0000 8.2000 8.4000 8.6000 8.8000 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 `/$
  • 5. US Europe Japan Emerging economies • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had declined in March, increased in April. The Index now stands at 68.1 (1985=100), up from 61.9 in March. • US unemployment rate came at four year low to 7.5% in April 2013, signaling that the US job market is improving. • Gross domestic product(GDP) rose at a 2.5% annual pace in the first three months of the year, driven largely by a pick-up in consumer spending. • The European Central Bank cut interest rates for the first time in 10 months by a quarter percentage point to a record low 0.50%. • Euro-zone’s Manufacturing PMI fell down slightly to 46.7 in April 2013 from 46.8 in March, signaling contraction for the twenty-first successive month. Euro-zone manufacturing started the second quarter of 2013 on a weak footing, with conditions in the sector deteriorating at the sharpest pace in the year-to- date. Economy Update - Global • Japan’s Manufacturing PMI posted a reading of 51.1 in April 2013 up from 50.4 in March 2013 signaling a solid growth performance, maintaining the trend that was observed in the first quarter of the year and latest anecdotal evidence suggests a weaker yen is playing a part in the expansion by raising export volumes. • The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in March 2013, its lowest level witnessed since November 2008 and up from 4.2% in January 2013. • China’s HSBC PMI posted a reading of 50.4 in April 2013 down from 51.6 in March 2013, signaling a slower growth of manufacturing activities. • Chinese economy grew at 7.7% in quarter ending March 2013, slower than 7.9% in quarter ending December 2012. • India’s HSBC PMI posted a reading of 51.0 in April 2013 down from reading of 52.0 in March 2013, signaling a lackluster growth in domestic orders coupled with a power shortage that disrupted industrial activity. 5
  • 6. Economy Outlook - Domestic • The country's gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a 10-year low of 4.5% during the third quarter of the current financial year, hurt by a slowdown in agriculture, mining and manufacturing, pushing the projected annual growth rate down further. The gross domestic product (GDP) had expanded by 6% in the same period of last fiscal. • The economic growth in the first nine months of this fiscal (April-December) stood at 5%. The manufacturing sector grew an annual 2.5% during the quarter while farm output rose just 1.1% & mining fell by 1.4%. • The Industrial sector slightly rebounded to 3.3% during the quarter from 2.7% y-o-y in the June quarter and 2.6% in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. India’s GDP growth pegged at 6.1%-6.7% for FY14; FY13 growth seen 5.0%. India's key eight core sector growth expands 3.9% in January following 2.5% growth in December. GDP growth • India's industrial production growth slowed to 0.6 per cent in February from 2.4 per cent in January. The Y-O-Y growth in capital goods at use-based level at 9.5% was unexpected. At this rate, the weighted contribution of capital goods to IIP growth was the highest since, Feb 2012. In the April-February period, industrial production expanded an annual 0.9%. • At the sectoral level, mining sector registered a de-growth at 8.1% and electricity sector growth declined by 3.2% (the first time since the new IIP series was introduced in FY2005.). Consumer sector performance also turned tepid with a visible slowdown in both durables and non-durables. • The cumulative growth in the three sectors during April-February 2012-13 over the corresponding period in the previous year was - 2.5%, 1% and 4% respectively. IIP 6 7.8 7.7 6.9 6.1 5.3 5.5 5.3 4.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 FY11(Q4) FY12(Q1) FY12(Q2) FY12(Q3) FY12(Q4) FY13(Q1) FY13(Q2) FY13(Q3) -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12 Jun 12 Jul 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13
  • 7. Economic Outlook - Domestic  As on Mar 2013 Bank credits grew by 11.9% on a Y-o-Y basis which is about 7.6% lower than the growth witnessed in Mar 2012. Aggregate deposits on a Y-o-Y basis grew at 10.5%, viz-a viz a growth of 17.4% in Mar 2012.  In keeping with the guidance and an increasingly benign stance, RBI reduced the repo rate by 25 bps to 7.25% in its monetary policy as of 3rd May 2013. While doing so, it also emphasized that supporting growth is going to be a priority in days ahead. It kept the others rates.  The key triggers favoring the rate cut seem to be lower trajectory of WPI and core inflation, lower GDP data than anticipated and of course the government’s intent to rein in the fiscal deficit.  The annual rate of inflation based on the wholesale price index hit a three-year low of 5.96% in March 2013, helped by a fall in vegetable prices. The wholesale price-based inflation rate stood at 6.84% in the previous month and 7.69% during the corresponding month of the previous year. This was the lowest rate since November 2009.  However, the inflation rate for January 2013 has now been revised upward to 7.31% from the provisional figure of 6.62% estimated earlier. Food inflation in Primary Articles came down to 8.73% from 11.88% in February 2013, while it declined to 7.01% from 8.16% in the case of Manufactured Products.  India's annual inflation rate, based on all India general Consumer Price Index, or CPI, as per base year 2010, for February 2013 slowed to 10.39% in March from an annual 10.91% in February. The retail inflation for the month under review remained in the double-digit territory for third month in a row, due to higher prices of vegetables, cereals, edible oil, and protein-based items. Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs * End of period figures 7 5.0% 7.0% 9.0% 11.0% 13.0% 15.0% 17.0% 19.0% 21.0% Bank Credit Aggregate Deposits 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 7.5% 8.0% Wholesale Price Index
  • 8. Equity Outlook The month of April saw a sharp cool-off in commodity prices. Gold and crude prices have corrected by more than 12% since early January bringing a much needed respite for India’s Current Account situation. Concerns on fiscal deficit are also getting addressed as fuel & fertilizer subsidies come down with fall in crude prices. Foreign investors have continued to invest in Indian equity with an inflow of one billion dollars in April taking the YTD number to 11 billion dollars. WPI Inflation for the month of April has touched a forty month low. WPI index has moderated to an average of 7.3% in FY13 with significant easing coming in the month of March as against average of 8.9% in FY12. This recent downward trajectory of WPI inflation has paved the way for further monetary easing by RBI. We expect 75-100bps cut in repo rates this fiscal as inflation continues to cool-off. This should lead to a revival in GDP growth in the second half of this year. The first repo cut of this fiscal happened last week as RBI shifts the focus to reviving growth. India’s GDP growth witnessed an expansion of 4.5% in Q3FY13 which is lowest in last 15 quarter attributed to lower than expected growth in both industry and services. RBI highlighted that ‘economic activity is expected to show only a modest improvement over last year, with a pick-up likely only in the second half of the year. Conditional upon a normal monsoon, agricultural growth could return to trend levels.’ RBI believes that growth cannot revive unless there is a revival in the investment cycle. RBI has forecasted FY14 GDP growth at 5.7% which is below consensus market estimates. While headline wholesale price inflation and its core component, non-food manufactured products inflation, have softened, the consumer price inflation continues to be at elevated levels. RBI’s view is that inflation should moderate to 5% in FY14 consider the softening in global commodity and forecast of a normal monsoon. RBI believes that the onus of reviving the investment cycle lies with central government and it expects further reform action in that direction before easing monetary policy further. The fourth quarter results of Indian companies have been more or less on expected lines. Private sector banks & consumer staples continue to do well. We expect a 12% growth in corporate earnings this fiscal with good showing from private banks, Healthcare & consumer companies. The EBITDA Margins of Indian manufacturing firms will get better as commodity prices cool off. Oil & Gas companies will benefit from the cool-off in commodity prices. The markets continue to trade at attractive valuations and investors should look to increase exposure to equity at every dip. 8
  • 9. Sector Stance Remarks Healthcare Overweight We believe in the large sized opportunity presented by Pharma sector in India. India’s strength in generics is difficult to replicate due to quality and quantity of available skilled manpower. With the developed world keen to cut healthcare costs, and a vast pipeline of drugs going off-patent, Indian pharma players are at the cusp of rapid growth. BFSI Overweight The reversal of the interest rate cycle will assist in managing asset quality better and would lead to increase in credit growth. However, we like the private sector more than public sector due to better management quality and higher balance sheet discipline FMCG Overweight We like the secular consumption theme. We prefer “discretionary consumption” beneficiaries such as Cigarettes, IT hardware, durables and branded garments, as the growth in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable incomes. Telecom Neutral The regulatory hurdles and competitive pressures seem to be reducing. Incumbents have started to increase tariffs slowly and we believe that consolidation will happen sooner than expected. E&C Neutral The significant slowdown in order inflow activity combined with high interest rates has hurt the sector. Now since the interest rate cycle has started to reverse, we have turned more constructive on this space. Sector View 9
  • 10. Sector Stance Remarks IT/ITES Neutral Demand seems to be coming back in Europe. US volume growth has also remained resilient. However, the new Immigration bill in US might make the outsourcing business more challenging for Indian Players Automobiles Neutral Raw material prices have started coming down which would boost margins. Auto loans are also getting cheaper. We are more bullish on SUV’s and agricultural vehicles segment due to lesser competition and higher pricing power. Energy Neutral With the ongoing price deregulation of diesel, we believe the total subsidy burden on Oil PSU’s will come down during the course of the year. We are turning more constructive on the space now. Power Utilities Neutral We like the regulated return charteristic of this space. This space provides steady growth in earnings and decent return on capital. Metals Underweight Commodity prices have corrected significantly over the last few months due to concerns about growth in China and developed parts of the world. Cement Underweight Cement industry is facing over capacity issues and lackluster demand. With regulator taking a strong view against pricing discipline, the profits of the sector are expected to stay muted. Sector View 10
  • 11. Debt Outlook • During the week the G-sec market remained range-bound ahead of RBI monetary policy ‰During the week, the Gsec market remained range bound ahead of RBI monetary policy. RBI’s 25 bps rate cut and RBI’s emphasis to use OMO as liquidity management tool helped in providing support to market despite its hawkish statement. The benchmark 10-year security 8.15% GOI 2022 closed the month at7.74% • In T-bill auction, RBI auctioned 91 days T-bill (Rs. 5000 cr) and 364 days T-bill (Rs. 5000 cr) with cut-off yield of 7.56% (Previous : 7.64%) and 7.48% (Previous : 7.58%) respectively. • India's fiscal deficit in Apr-Feb, the first eleven months of the current financial year, rose 2.8% on year to Rs 5.074 lakh cr; fiscal deficit was Rs 41680 cr in February versus Rs 58600 cr a year ago. • The spread on a 10 year AAA rated corporate bond reduced to 79 Bps on 30th April 2013 from 89 Bps (as on 28th March 2013). AAA Rated bond yields dipped by 33 bps to 8.52% as compared to the yields a month earlier at 8.85%. 10-yr G-sec yieldYield curve (%) (%) 11 7.4000 7.6000 7.8000 8.0000 8.2000 8.4000 8.6000 8.8000 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.4 0.0 0.8 1.6 2.4 3.2 4.0 4.7 5.5 6.3 7.1 7.9 8.7 9.5 10.2 11.0 11.8 12.6 13.4 14.2 15.0 15.7 16.5 17.3 18.1 18.9 19.7
  • 12. Debt Strategy OutlookCategory Details Long Tenure Debt Indian long term debt is likely to see capital appreciation owing to the expected monetary easing. With the fourth policy rate cut happening in March 2013, with a 25 Bps cut in Repo and no CRR along with lesser probability of future cuts in the policy rates in the coming quarter, but along with this is a lot of uncertainty in the market. Along with the above mentioned things, commodity prices cooling down, Current account deficit will reduce to a great extent, and these papers are suitable for both - investors who may want to stay invested for the medium term (exiting when prices appreciate) and those who would want to lock in high yields for the longer term. Some AA and select A rated securities are very attractive at the current yields. A similar trend can be seen in the Fixed Deposits also. Tight liquidity in the system has also contributed to widening of the spreads making entry at current levels attractive. With the fourth policy rate cut that happened in May 2013, with a 25 Bps cut in Repo rate and no CRR along with lesser probability of future cuts in the policy rates in the coming quarter, but as there is influence of global factors in the market, a lot of uncertainty is coupled with it, hence, we would recommend to invest in and hold on to current investments in short term debt Due to liquidity pressures increasing in the market as RBI has a huge borrowing plan, short term yields would remain higher. Short Term funds still have high YTMs (9%–9.5%) providing interesting investment opportunities. Short Tenure Debt Credit 12
  • 13. Forex • INR has appreciated against two major currencies other than Euro & GBP. INR appreciated by 0.3% against the US Dollar. Rupee has appreciated against dollar since the beginning of the calendar year by 1.03%. • The rupee has been vacillating in a range between 54 and 55 over the last two months. Within this range, the currency has rallied from the low of 54.9 to 53.8 against the dollar since April 5. This was mainly due to expectation of policy rate cut in the RBI’s monetary policy • Volatility as last year is expected to continue as the rupee would track cues from the domestic markets as well as global shores. If US economy recovers, the dollar will rally, putting the rupee under pressure Rupee movement vis-à-vis other currencies (M-o-M) Trade balance and export-import data • The projected capital account balance for Q2 FY 12 is revised from Rs. 84,400 Cr to Rs. 78,800 Cr also the Q1 figure was revised downwards to Rs. 99,500 Crores from Rs. 1,02,100 Crores. • We expect factors such as higher interest rates to attract more investments to India. Increased limits for investment by FIIs would also help in bringing in more funds though uncertainty in the global markets could prove to be a dampener. 68531 73903 75512 99033 66748 37298 95500 78800 -10000 40000 90000 140000 FY 10 (Q3) FY 10 (Q4) FY 11 (Q1) FY 11 (Q2) FY 11 (Q3) FY 11 (Q4) FY 12 (Q1) FY 12 (Q2) Capital Account Balance Exports during Mar, 2013 were valued at US $ 30.85 bn which was 6.97% higher than the level of US $ 28.84 bn during Mar, 2012. Imports during Mar, 2013 were valued at US $ 41.16 Bn representing a negative growth of 2.87% over the level of imports valued at US $ 42.38 Bn in Mar 2012 translating into a trade deficit of $10.31 Bn. 13 0.3% -2.0% -2.0% 4.1% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% USD GBP EURO YEN -25000 -20000 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Export Import Trade Balance (mn $)
  • 14. Commodities Precious Metals Oil & Gas While the expectation of steadier global growth is a good news for the oil counter given the excess liquidity available, the growth concerns in China will cap any upside. In the energy sufficient USA, there is a structural shift towards Shale Gas production amid crude oil inventories ruling at 30 year high. With no supply disruption in sight amid feeble global growth, we expect lower energy prices. Crude Gold Having risen consecutively for eleven years, dollar-gold price performance is one of the best among other asset classes, generating an annualized return of 18%. The global financial system was flood with central banks liquidity that had risen risk asset in the year 2012 and this is expected to further lift risk asset prices in the year 2013. Given this backdrop, one could expect a decent profit booking on the precious metal counter as the money flow shall now be diverted to equities that was under owned since 2008. We also expect liquidity to dry up significantly around end of 1QCY following the ECB’s LTROs amid a sharp pull back in dollar index -following the Fed’s signal to wind down the stimulus program this year - could rattle global commodity prices. The controlled measures by the central bankers to curb gold demand with a prime objective being to shore up confidence in the monetary and banking system, bullion in all probability will not be a free market. As bullion derivatives market is far larger than the size of physical metal, a small trigger is sufficient enough to create a big impact. Domestically, it now seems that gold has formed an intermediate top and one could see considerable price pull back going ahead in the year 2013. 14 25000 26000 27000 28000 29000 30000 31000 32000 33000 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130
  • 15. 15 Real Estate Outlook Asset Classes Tier I Tier II Residential A lot of new supply has been seen in the Tier I markets across all price segments, especially in NCR-Delhi and Mumbai, owing to faster approvals and expectations of a sales recovery due to the reduction in the home loan interest rates. While some of the new launches have selectively seen a good response, overall sales have still been slow and prices continued to be stagnant in most markets. Mid-income residential segment with Rs. 4,000 – 6,000 per sq. ft. entry pricing with good developers in Pune, Bangalore, NCR and Mumbai suburbs are expected to see good percentage returns with relatively low risk. Implications of Budget 2013: The additional one-time tax exemption of Rs. 1,00,000 for home loans below Rs. 25 Lacs is expected to give a slight push in the affordable housing segment. TDS of 1% on all properties above Rs. 50 lacs after May 2013 and increase in service tax from 3.09% to 3.71% for flats above 2,000 sq. ft. in size or Rs. 1 Cr. in value may act as dampeners for sale of mid to high end residential space. Demand in Tier II cities is largely driven by the trend towards nuclear families, increasing disposable income, rising aspiration to own quality products and the growth in infrastructure facilities in these cities. Price appreciation is more concentrated to specific micro-markets in these cities. Cities like Chandigarh, Jaipur, Lucknow, Ahmedabad, Bhopal, Nagpur, Patna and Cochin are expected to perform well. Commercial/IT Prices for the commercial asset class continue to be dampened due to the historic oversupply. In terms of absorption, Bangalore, Hyderabad and Pune markets are doing better than the national average. Rentals in commercial asset class are seen to be rising slowly but they are still below the peal values achieved in the past. In relative terms, Bangalore market has outperformed other markets owing primarily to the demand from the IT industry. Specific pre-leased properties with good tenant profile and larger lock-in periods continue to be good investment opportunities over a long-term horizon. Relatively low unsold inventory and smaller unit sizes have led to stable lease rentals in Tier II cities. Not much movement in the capital values has been seen in the Tier II cities.
  • 16. Real Estate Outlook 16 Please Note: Tier I* markets include Mumbai, Delhi & NCR, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkatta Tier II* markets includes all state capitals other than the Tier I markets Asset Classes Tier I Tier II Retail In HY2 2012, Government approved 51% foreign ownership in multi-brand retail and 100% in single-brand retail. While this move is expected to infuse new enthusiasm in the sector, it will take a gestation period of at least an year for this to translate into actual off-take of space. In fact, completion of a number of malls has been delayed to defer the construction costs and capitalize on the expected future demand from FDI. Currently, unsold inventory levels continue to be high levels and lease rentals stagnant. Tier II cities see a preference of hi-street retail as compared to mall space in Tier I cities. While not much data on these rentals gets reported, these are expected to have been stagnant. The mall culture has repeatedly failed in the past n the Tier-2 cities. Whether the FDI in retail can change this phenomenon can be known with more certainty once the effect of FDI is more visible in Tier I cities. Land Agricultural / non-agricultural lands with connectivity to Tier I cities and in proximity to upcoming industrial and other infrastructure developments present good investment opportunities. Caution should however be exercised due to the complexities typically involved in land investments. Land in Tier II and III cities along upcoming / established growth corridors have seen good percentage appreciation due to low investment base in such areas.
  • 17. Disclaimer The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Capital Ltd. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it. This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any information or analysis mentioned here, investors may please note that neither Karvy Capital Ltd nor any person connected with any associated companies of Karvy Capital Ltd accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned here. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Karvy Capital Ltd, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses (hereinafter referred to as Karvy) may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above-mentioned assets from time to time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other securities till such a time this recommendation has either been displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy. All employees are further restricted to place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd and Karvy Comtrade Ltd. Any information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investors are advised to consult their respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. We also expect significant changes in the tax laws once the new Direct Tax Code is in force – this could change the applicability and incidence of tax on equity investments. Karvy Capital Ltd Operates from within India and is subject to Indian regulations. Mumbai office Address: 702, Hallmark Business plaza, Sant Dnyaneshwar Marg, Bandra (East), off Bandra Kurla Complex, Mumbai 400 051 17