- The Indian rupee appreciated slightly against the US dollar last week while gold prices rose slightly. - Crude oil prices increased over 2% as OPEC production cuts and US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran tightened supply. - The Nifty index bounced back after reaching a support level, and is expected to trade in a range this week.

1.
Key Highlight
 RBI to transfer Rs 28,000 as dividends to GOI
 Uncertainty revolves around Brexit
 FOMC minutes came out on a dovish note
Weekly Performance and Outlook
USDINR
Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.1 percent last week
while the Dollar Index decreased by 0.28 percent. CPI
from India came in at 2.05 percent for Jan’19 against
market expectations of 2.48 percent. Meanwhile, RBI
has decided to transfer Rs. 28,000 crore as interim
dividend to the Government for the period of July to
December 2018. In the recent US Fed meeting minutes
the tone that came out was less dovish than expected
and the Fed could announce later this year to stop
reducing their balance sheet. Core durable goods
orders came in at 0.1% against market expectations of
0.3% for Jan’19. Meanwhile US President said on
Tuesday that trade talks with China is highly complex
but are progressing very well and again indicated that
Mar 1 deadline for raising tariffs can be extended. In
the coming week.
In this week, USDINR (CMP: 71.05) is expected to
trade between 70.50 to 71.80
EURINR

EURUSD appreciated by 0.4 percent last week while
EURINR depreciated by 0.25 percent the same time
frame. German manufacturing PMI came in at 47.6
against market expectations of 49.7 for Jan’19. German
flash services PMI came in at 55.1 against market
expectations of 52.8 for Jan ’19.German economic
sentiment came in at‐13.4 for Jan’19 against market
expectations of ‐14.1. Meanwhile, Concerns hit the
common currency as US President Trump intends to
put tariffs on cars' imports, which will affect the their
auto industry. In the coming week, the movement in
EURINR will be driven by German manufacturing PMI
and German CPI.
In this week, EURINR (CMP: 80.60) is expected to
trade between 79.50 to 81.20
GBPINR
GBP rose against USD by 1.08 percent last week while
GBPINR depreciated by 0.94 percent. Public sector net
borrowing came in at ‐$15.8 billion against market
expectations of ‐$11.1 billion for Jan’19. EU officials
want PM May to secure the changes she wants on the
Irish backstop in the Parliament before asking EU
leaders to sign them, which seems quite logical, as the
other way around isn't working. The UK Parliament is
scheduled to vote next Feb 27. In the coming week,
movement in GBPINR will be driven by inflation report
hearings and manufacturing PMI from UK
In this week, GBPINR (CMP: 92.77) is expected to
trade between 91.50 to 93.80
Hourly INR=IN 4:30 PM 02/14/2019 - 9:30 AM 02/26/2019 (DEL)
Cndl, INR=IN, 3:30 PM 02/25/2019, 71.0350, 71.0350, 71.0200, 71.0275, -0.1125, (-0.16%) Price
INR
70.9
70.95
71
71.05
71.1
71.15
71.2
71.25
71.3
71.35
71.4
71.45
71.5
71.0275
09:30 17:30 17:30 17:30 17:30 17:30 09:30
Feb 15 19 Feb 18 19 Feb 20 19 Feb 21 19 Feb 22 19 Feb 25 19
Hourly EURINR=R 2:30 PM 02/15/2019 - 11:30 PM 02/25/2019 (DEL)
Cndl, EURINR=R, 3:30 PM 02/25/2019, 80.569, 80.613, 80.532, 80.588, +0.073, (+0.09%) Price
INR
80.2
80.3
80.4
80.5
80.6
80.7
80.8
80.9
80.588
16:30 00:30 12:30 00:30 16:30 04:30 16:30 04:30 16:30 04:30 16:30 00:30 12:30
Feb 18 19 Feb 19 19 Feb 20 19 Feb 21 19 Feb 22 19 Feb 25 19
Hourly GBPINR=R 2:30 AM 02/16/2019 - 11:30 PM 02/25/2019 (DEL)
Cndl, GBPINR=R, 3:30 PM 02/25/2019, 92.808, 92.865, 92.696, 92.766, -0.078, (-0.08%) Price
INR
91.9
92
92.1
92.2
92.3
92.4
92.5
92.6
92.7
92.8
92.9
93
93.1
93.2
92.766
00:30 12:30 00:30 16:30 04:30 16:30 04:30 16:30 04:30 16:30 00:30 12:30
Feb 18 19 Feb 19 19 Feb 20 19 Feb 21 19 Feb 22 19 Feb 25 19
Weekly Report – 18th
Feb to 22nd
Feb

2. Gold
Spot gold prices rose by 0.2 percent last week whereas on
the MCX, prices rose by 0.2 percent. The officials of US &
China resumed talks last week in Washington. The US
President, Trump might consider pushing the deadline of
1st March 2019 ahead as the talks with China are going
well. After touching its highest levels in 10 months earlier
in the week over weakening in the Dollar Index and
slowdown in the global economy, the rally in Gold prices
came to an end after the FED minutes signalled signs of a
possible rate hike in 2019 which propped the Dollar
higher. The FOMC meet in late January stated that the
U.S. economy is still strong & prompted expectation of at
least one rate hikes in 2019 which pushed the Dollar
higher.
In this week, Gold (CMP: 1328) is expected to trade
between 1305 to 1350
Crude Oil
Last week, WTI Crude prices rose sharply by 2.6
percent. Crude prices touched its highest levels in 2019
of $57.55 per barrel as the prices were supported by
production cuts by OPEC and its allies to reduce the
global supply and stabilize prices. Moreover, U.S.
sanctions on OPEC members Venezuela and Iran
pushed the prices even higher. Optimism over a
possible trade deal between US and China after Trump
stated that the trade talks with China were going well
further supported Crude. The gains for crude were
restricted after US crude inventory continued to
increase for the fifth week to the highest levels in over
a year. Increasing production from US weighed on the
Crude prices coupled with global slowdown concerns.
In this week, Brent Oil (CMP: 66.84) is expected to
trade between 65.20 to 68.20
Nifty
The daily chart depicted an ‘Inverted Hammer’, which
eventually got converted into a ‘Morning Star’ pattern
due to a price development on the following day. Since,
there was an occurrence of a ‘Positive divergence’ on
hourly chart (on Tuesday); markets had all the reason
to give a decent bounce back. This is what we saw in
the remaining part of the week. Now going ahead, as
long as 10580 is not broken, traders should look to
trade on the positive side. Before this, 10720 – 10646
would be seen as immediate supports. On the flipside,
‘200‐day SMA’ level of 10860 would be seen the level
to watch out for. A move beyond this would trigger a
decent up move towards 10920 – 11000 levels.
In this week, Nifty (CMP: 10857) is expected to
trade between 10650 to 10963
Hourly XAU= 8:00 PM 02/15/2019 - 5:00 PM 02/25/2019 (GMT)
Cndl, XAU=, 10:00 AM 02/25/2019, 1,328.4100, 1,328.7200, 1,327.4900, 1,328.3199,
+0.6099, (+0.05%)
Price
USD
Ozs
1,320
1,323
1,326
1,329
1,332
1,335
1,338
1,341
1,344
1,328.3199
22:00 10:00 22:00 10:00 22:00 10:00 22:00 10:00 22:00 10:00 22:00 10:00
Feb 18 19 Feb 19 19 Feb 20 19 Feb 21 19 Feb 22 19 Feb 25 19
Hourly LCOc1 5:30 PM 02/15/2019 - 10:30 PM 02/25/2019 (DEL)
Cndl, LCOc1, 3:30 PM 02/25/2019, 66.86, 67.08, 66.85, 67.04, -0.16, (-0.24%) Price
USD
Bbl
64.8
65.2
65.6
66
66.4
66.8
67.2
67.04
19:30 05:30 17:30 07:30 19:30 07:30 19:30 07:30 19:30 07:30 19:30 05:30 17:30
Feb 18 19 Feb 19 19 Feb 20 19 Feb 21 19 Feb 22 19 Feb 25 19
Hourly GBPINR=R 2:30 AM 02/16/2019 - 11:30 PM 02/25/2019 (DEL)
Cndl, GBPINR=R, 3:30 PM 02/25/2019, 92.808, 92.865, 92.696, 92.786, -0.058, (-0.06%) Price
INR
91.9
92
92.1
92.2
92.3
92.4
92.5
92.6
92.7
92.8
92.9
93
93.1
93.2
92.786
00:30 12:30 00:30 16:30 04:30 16:30 04:30 16:30 04:30 16:30 00:30 12:30
Feb 18 19 Feb 19 19 Feb 20 19 Feb 21 19 Feb 22 19 Feb 25 19