Analisi mensile mercati WMM Group

1. La macro finestra
WMM Wealth Management – 26.07.2021

2. WMM Group | Pagina 2

3. JAPAN CPI
The rise in Japan’s key inflation gauges was more a reflection of temporary factors than a
strengthening trend. Core inflation excluding fresh food rose on higher energy prices, while the
headline inflation got a boost from fresh food prices.
The transitory nature of these gains suggests the Bank of Japan needs to maintain its easing
stance for the foreseeable future. The core CPI excluding fresh food rose 0.2% year on year in
June, up from May’s 0.1% increase. This was in line with the consensus forecast and also our
projection. Another core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) fell 0.2% year on year,
matching May’s drop. This was also in line with the consensus forecast, and shows underlying
price pressures remain weak. Looking ahead, most economists expect core inflation (excluding
fresh food) to hover around 0.2% in July. Energy prices will probably remain a support. The
renewed state of emergency in Tokyo from July 12 to Aug. 22 may weigh on prices at
restaurants and hotels. One factor to watch out for when projecting prices is the shift in base
year to 2020 from 2015 and a change in weightings starting Aug. 6.
Analysts expect a modest downward revision of prices, but a rapid change in household
expenditure amid the pandemic year of 2020 could result in an unexpected outcome.
Torna ad aumentare l'inflazione in Giappone a giugno.
Secondo l'Ufficio nazionale di statistica, l'indice dei prezzi al
consumo (CPI) ha registrato una variazione del +0.2% su
base annua, dopo il -0.1% del mese precedente. Secondo
gli analisti il tasso dovrebbe rimanere attorno a questi livelli
nei prossimi mesi. Tuttavia, le nuove misure dettate dalle
autorità per contenere la nuova ondata della variante Delta,
rende più difficile una accurata previsione per i prossimi
mesi. La maggior parte degli economisti resta dell’opinione
che il recente rialzo non condizionerà la politica monetaria
adottata, attualmente iper-espansiva, dalla BoJ.
WMM Group | Pagina 3

4. JAPAN TRADE BALANCE
A stronger-than-expected increase in Japan’s exports shows external demand remains a bright
spot for the economy.
The trade balance swung back to a deficit due to larger import bills, but the rapid increase in
total trade volume is a positive for the economy overall. Pundits expect trade to continue
offsetting the pressure on domestic demand from a renewed state of emergency for Tokyo.
The trade balance registered a deficit of 90.2 billion yen on a seasonally- adjusted basis in
June, reversing a surplus of 19.6 billion yen in May and well below the consensus estimate of a
22.6 billion yen surplus. Automobile exports to the U.S., chip-making equipment shipments to
China and steel exports to Asia drove exports. A weaker yen and a surge in global commodity
prices boosted the value of imports in crude oil, non-ferrous metal, iron ore, wiping out the
surplus. Looking ahead, economists expect exports to remain above the pre-Covid level in July.
Recoveries in U.S. demand will be offset by slowing shipments to Asia due to the latest wave of
Covid-19 infections, particularly in Asean. Exports rose 48.6% year on year in June, down from
a 49.6% increase in May. It was above the consensus forecast for a 46.2% rise.
Imports increased 32.7% year on year, accelerating from a 27.9% rise in May.
The consensus forecast was for a 28.2% rise.
Durante lo scorso mese, le esportazioni del Sol Levante
hanno subito un forte rimbalzo (+48.6% su base annua). Si
rafforza dunque il trend in atto da qualche mese, quando le
principali economie hanno riaperto totalmente. In
particolare, le esportazioni del Giappone verso la Cina sono
salite del 27.7%, mentre quelle verso gli Stati sono schizzate
dell'85.5%, sulla scia soprattutto delle consegne di auto,
componenti auto e motori. Le importazioni hanno riportato a
+32.7% su base annua, rispetto al +29% stimato e al
precedente rialzo del 27.9%. Il consensus resta per un
rafforzamento del trend. È tuttavia cruciale capire
l’evoluzione della variante Delta che negli ultimi giorni si è
sviluppata nei paesi del ASEAN
WMM Group | Pagina 4

5. ECB MEETING (1):
Christine Lagarde promised that the European Central Bank has learned from the errors of past
crises and won’t derail the current economic recovery by withdrawing emergency support too
early. The ECB president spoke Thursday as the central bank put into action the new monetary
policy strategy it hammered out over the past 18 months. It revised guidance on interest rates,
tying policy shifts more tightly to hitting its new 2% inflation goal, and said it won’t necessarily
react immediately if price growth exceeds that target for a “transitory” period. The ECB’s
guidance change means that even if inflation is at the target at the end of its forecast horizon --
as much as three years out -- it won’t be forced to respond with tighter policy. Officials currently
foresee price growth averaging just 1.4% in 2023, which suggests any rate hike is years away.
“We’re informed by past experience and by most recent history,” Lagarde told reporters. She
referred to “this element of patience” and said the new guidance is “intended to avoid premature
tightening that would be detrimental to the economy.” Good morning and happy Friday!
Yesterday’s main change from the ECB meeting came from its forward guidance on rates. We
already knew that the ECB changed its inflation target from “close to but below 2%”, to “2% over
the medium term”. And yesterday’s meeting explained how the Governing Council will now
adjust rates to its new inflation mandate.The ECB will want to first see inflation stabilize well
ahead of its symmetrical 2% target before it adjusts its instruments accordingly. This changes
its previous method where they would adjust rates once they would already see inflation move
towards its target.
La BCE sarà "paziente", "nessuno di noi vuole una
prematura stretta" della politica monetaria. Lo afferma la
presidente Lagarde al termine della riunione del board. La
ripresa dell'economia dell'eurozona è in marcia ma la
pandemia continua a rappresentare un'ombra. I rischi sulle
prospettive dell'Eurozona "sono ampiamente bilanciati" ha
detto poi puntualizzando che l'outlook dipende
dall'andamento della pandemia e delle vaccinazioni. La
riunione era molto attesa in quanto Lagarde ha dato seguito
alla revisione della sua strategia, iniziata l’anno scorso e
terminata all’inizio di questo mese.
WMM Group | Pagina 5

6. ECB MEETING (2):
Nevertheless, unlike the Fed, the ECB has stressed that it will not aim for inflation to exceed
2%, but that they remain prepared to accept a transitory period in which inflation is moderately
above target. This tells us that the ECB will likely start to adjust its rates to actual interest rate
changes rather than forecasts. Not all ECB policy makers were on board with the new
language. Bundesbank President Jens Weidman and Belgian Governor Pierre Wunsch were
opposed, saying the wording can be seen as making too much of a long-term commitment to
loose monetary policy, according to officials familiar with the meeting. Also on Thursday,
current tools were kept unchanged:
• The deposit rate stayed at -0.5%
• The 1.85 trillion-euro ($2.2 trillion) pandemic bond-buying program will continue at an
elevated pace, with a scheduled end date of March 2022
• The older Asset Purchase Program stays at 20 billion euros a month and will only end
shortly before rates start rising
• The ECB will keep providing long-term loans to banks
La novità più rilevante riguarda la definizione di stabilità dei
prezzi: il target del 2 per cento per l’inflazione è diventato un
obiettivo simmetrico, da perseguire nel medio termine. La
storica espressione “below but close to 2 per cent” verrà
dunque sostituita da una formulazione con cui la Bce si
impegna a correggere eventuali «inflation gap» (differenza
tra inflazione effettiva e target del 2 per cento) positivi e
negativi. A conferma della volontà di mantenere una
posizione molto espansiva di politica monetaria, il
comunicato del Consiglio ribadisce la possibilità che in futuro
l’inflazione resti moderatamente al di sopra del 2 per cento
per un certo periodo.
WMM Group | Pagina 6

7. WMM Group | Pagina 7

8. WMM Group | Pagina 8

9. Wealth Management
Wealth management and financial consultancy to private and corporate clients
As members of the Swiss Association of Wealth Management (VSV – ASG) we count on a group of
professionals with decades of experience in the field, a solid administrative structure and internal
resources for all business operations.
We collaborate closely with leading Swiss banks in order to ensure that our clients are offered a wide
range of choice in the custody of their assets as well as personalized investment solutions based on
defined objectives.
WMM Group | Pagina 9

10. Contacts
WMM Group
Via alla Campagna 2A
6900 Lugano
Wealth Management
WMM Gestioni Patrimoniali SA
+41 91 973 38 30
gepa@wmm-group.com