The crude oil prices rose last week due to tensions in Iraq, with Brent crude reaching $114.50 per barrel. However, Iraq only contributes 3-4% of global oil production. India's wholesale price inflation increased to 6% in May, its highest since December 2013, driven by costlier food and fuel. The equity writer maintains a positive view on equities with a Sensex target of 29,000, but inflation could pose challenges for monetary policy. Earnings season is expected to start in mid-July.
The Union Budget presented by Finance Minister Mr. Arun Jaitley, with the muted expectation, it was a good budget considering the local and global financial constraints. The budget stuck to the path of fiscal consolidation. The Government targets to narrow the central fiscal deficit to 3.5% in 2016-17, after having comfortably met its 3.9% target for 2015-16.
The Indian economy was facing Agrarian distress for the past 3 years. This was primarily because the Minimum Support Prices were raised by less than 5% every year in the backdrop of MSP increases between 12% -16% between 2005 and 2013. This was the primary reason for inflation being in double digits since 2009. By keeping the MSP increases below 5% the food prices continue to be under control and the CPI has remained below the RBI’s threshold of 6%. On this backdrop, the government’s decision on focusing on social sector spending was welcome.
We had a flattish last week with nifty moving up by 0.4%. This week is going to be heavy in terms of macro economic data points coming in both India & outside.
The World This Week - 03rd Aug to 08th Aug, 2015
As expected rates were kept unchanged in the RBI credit policy last week but the tone of the policy along with macro economic factors suggest that there could be a chance of rate cut in the next credit policy which is due on 29th September or even before that. The only concern is distribution of monsoon which is very uneven so if monsoon plays out properly then the rates may be cut. The change witnessed from previous credit policy to this one is the probability of another rate cut happening in this calendar year has increased from 50% to 75%. There would be certain consequences of a rate cut. Sectors which would benefit are stable businesses like Auto, Private Banks, and NBFC etc. Sectors like infrastructure, manufacturing, high capital intensive business which are facing problems of raising capital, inadequate profitability etc would still struggle despite a rate cut. Know
The Union Budget presented by Finance Minister Mr. Arun Jaitley, with the muted expectation, it was a good budget considering the local and global financial constraints. The budget stuck to the path of fiscal consolidation. The Government targets to narrow the central fiscal deficit to 3.5% in 2016-17, after having comfortably met its 3.9% target for 2015-16.
The Indian economy was facing Agrarian distress for the past 3 years. This was primarily because the Minimum Support Prices were raised by less than 5% every year in the backdrop of MSP increases between 12% -16% between 2005 and 2013. This was the primary reason for inflation being in double digits since 2009. By keeping the MSP increases below 5% the food prices continue to be under control and the CPI has remained below the RBI’s threshold of 6%. On this backdrop, the government’s decision on focusing on social sector spending was welcome.
We had a flattish last week with nifty moving up by 0.4%. This week is going to be heavy in terms of macro economic data points coming in both India & outside.
The World This Week - 03rd Aug to 08th Aug, 2015
As expected rates were kept unchanged in the RBI credit policy last week but the tone of the policy along with macro economic factors suggest that there could be a chance of rate cut in the next credit policy which is due on 29th September or even before that. The only concern is distribution of monsoon which is very uneven so if monsoon plays out properly then the rates may be cut. The change witnessed from previous credit policy to this one is the probability of another rate cut happening in this calendar year has increased from 50% to 75%. There would be certain consequences of a rate cut. Sectors which would benefit are stable businesses like Auto, Private Banks, and NBFC etc. Sectors like infrastructure, manufacturing, high capital intensive business which are facing problems of raising capital, inadequate profitability etc would still struggle despite a rate cut. Know
News:
DOMESTIC MACRO:
India's total external debt rose by $29.5 bn, or 6.6%, to $475.8 bn at the end of March 2015, mainly due to increase in external commercial borrowings and NRI deposits.
Fifteen states sign a memorandum of agreement (MoA) with the Ministry of Housing & Urban Poverty Alleviation for ‘housing for all’ mission in urban areas.
According to RBI’s annual report, the central bank remains focused on bringing down consumer inflation to its target of 4% by March 2018.
India to auction 20 major iron ore mines to revive industry.
GLOBAL MACRO
EURO
UK GDP rose by 2.6% annually in Q2 2015, compared to 2.9% in Q1.
UK GfK consumer confidence index jumped to 7 in August from 4 in July.
United States
US economy expanded 3.7% in Q2, higher than the previous estimate of 2.3%, and 0.6% growth in the first quarter.
US consumer spending increased 0.3% in July after an upwardly revised 0.3% rise in June while the personal income rose by 0.4% in July, matching the increase seen in the previous month.
US pending home sales index increased 0.5% after a revised 1.7% decline in June.
China
China’s industrial profits fell 2.9% year on year in July, sharply down from the 0.3% decline posted in June.
Equity View:
Markets are moving into earnings season and initial results of few corporate entities seem good enough,
starting with Indusind Bank followed by Infosys. The numbers of these companies were expected to come
out well thus this outcome is not surprising from sectors like Private Sector Banks, IT, FMCG and Pharma
which are expected to perform well. There are few sectors like Capital Goods, Public Sector Banks and old
Infra Companies which can show subdued results. We expect domestic factors like government policies
to drive the market in absence of global cues. IIP data is set to come out today and is expected to be flat;
Inflation is also expected to be higher due to base effect.
Real estate markets have a cycle of around 5 – 7 years thus an off-take seems distant, however buying
could initiate after 2 – 3 years. A rate cut acts as a catalyst but it cannot help in a sudden pick-up of
demand.
There is always a trend and a counter trend in the movement of an asset class. We need to see the long
term trend. In commodities there is bearish long term trend so counter trend is bullish and thus,
currently we are seeing a counter trend in this asset. Similarly, if we have a bullish long term trend for
equity markets then from time to time there would be correction which is also happening now and this is
known as counter trend. The incremental savings of the government can either be used in the form of an
investment, subsidies or 7th Pay commission arrears. This definitely leads to correction in equity markets
but it doesn’t lead to bearish phase. If everyone is hopeful about the turnaround of Indian story and
economic revival then no one exits completely from the stock markets. Larger expectations are that
investments will certainly pick up and we all are hopeful about it.
News:
DOMESTIC MACRO:
Indirect tax collection rose 35.8% to over Rs. 3.24 lakh crore in the first half of the current fiscal.
Indirect tax collection in the period from April to September in the last fiscal stood at about Rs.
2.38 lakh crore.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest World Economic Outlook has lowered India’s
growth forecast for FY16 to 7.3% from its July forecast of 7.5%. Growth is expected to bounce back
to 7.5% in 2016-17 on the back of reforms, pick-up in investments and lower commodity prices.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will be increasing the investment limit for Foreign Portfolio
Investors (FPIs) in Government Securities to Rs. 1,79,500 crore by January 1 from the existing Rs.
1,53,500 crore.
The Cabinet approves a Railway Ministry proposal to pay bonus equivalent to 78 days’ pay, with a wage
ceiling of Rs 3500 a month.
The markets have started on a somber note. As discussed in the past that markets were at tiring levels of 8600, a 3% correction was expected in last one month. it would be an approximate fall of 7% after today’s correction which is in line with developed markets. The US markets fall of ~7.5% in last one month has impacted Y-O-Y returns from 17% to 3%. India on the other hand, is considered to be an outperformer as compared to other emerging markets like Brazil, Australia, Indonesia, etc however a further correction of 3% - 4% cannot be ruled out. The mid cap index is fairly resilient but people should stay away from low quality high beta mid cap stocks and if investments are existing then profit booking followed by exiting these stocks is suggested.
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...Vighnesh Shashtri
In India, financial inclusion remains a critical challenge, with a significant portion of the population still unbanked. Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) have emerged as key players in bridging this gap by providing financial services to those often overlooked by traditional banking institutions. This article delves into how NBFCs are fostering financial inclusion and empowering the unbanked.
what is the future of Pi Network currency.DOT TECH
The future of the Pi cryptocurrency is uncertain, and its success will depend on several factors. Pi is a relatively new cryptocurrency that aims to be user-friendly and accessible to a wide audience. Here are a few key considerations for its future:
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram if u want to sell PI COINS.
1. Mainnet Launch: As of my last knowledge update in January 2022, Pi was still in the testnet phase. Its success will depend on a successful transition to a mainnet, where actual transactions can take place.
2. User Adoption: Pi's success will be closely tied to user adoption. The more users who join the network and actively participate, the stronger the ecosystem can become.
3. Utility and Use Cases: For a cryptocurrency to thrive, it must offer utility and practical use cases. The Pi team has talked about various applications, including peer-to-peer transactions, smart contracts, and more. The development and implementation of these features will be essential.
4. Regulatory Environment: The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies is evolving globally. How Pi navigates and complies with regulations in various jurisdictions will significantly impact its future.
5. Technology Development: The Pi network must continue to develop and improve its technology, security, and scalability to compete with established cryptocurrencies.
6. Community Engagement: The Pi community plays a critical role in its future. Engaged users can help build trust and grow the network.
7. Monetization and Sustainability: The Pi team's monetization strategy, such as fees, partnerships, or other revenue sources, will affect its long-term sustainability.
It's essential to approach Pi or any new cryptocurrency with caution and conduct due diligence. Cryptocurrency investments involve risks, and potential rewards can be uncertain. The success and future of Pi will depend on the collective efforts of its team, community, and the broader cryptocurrency market dynamics. It's advisable to stay updated on Pi's development and follow any updates from the official Pi Network website or announcements from the team.
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
Financial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptxWrito-Finance
financial assets represent claim for future benefit or cash. Financial assets are formed by establishing contracts between participants. These financial assets are used for collection of huge amounts of money for business purposes.
Two major Types: Debt Securities and Equity Securities.
Debt Securities are Also known as fixed-income securities or instruments. The type of assets is formed by establishing contracts between investor and issuer of the asset.
• The first type of Debit securities is BONDS. Bonds are issued by corporations and government (both local and national government).
• The second important type of Debit security is NOTES. Apart from similarities associated with notes and bonds, notes have shorter term maturity.
• The 3rd important type of Debit security is TRESURY BILLS. These securities have short-term ranging from three months, six months, and one year. Issuer of such securities are governments.
• Above discussed debit securities are mostly issued by governments and corporations. CERTIFICATE OF DEPOSITS CDs are issued by Banks and Financial Institutions. Risk factor associated with CDs gets reduced when issued by reputable institutions or Banks.
Following are the risk attached with debt securities: Credit risk, interest rate risk and currency risk
There are no fixed maturity dates in such securities, and asset’s value is determined by company’s performance. There are two major types of equity securities: common stock and preferred stock.
Common Stock: These are simple equity securities and bear no complexities which the preferred stock bears. Holders of such securities or instrument have the voting rights when it comes to select the company’s board of director or the business decisions to be made.
Preferred Stock: Preferred stocks are sometime referred to as hybrid securities, because it contains elements of both debit security and equity security. Preferred stock confers ownership rights to security holder that is why it is equity instrument
<a href="https://www.writofinance.com/equity-securities-features-types-risk/" >Equity securities </a> as a whole is used for capital funding for companies. Companies have multiple expenses to cover. Potential growth of company is required in competitive market. So, these securities are used for capital generation, and then uses it for company’s growth.
Concluding remarks
Both are employed in business. Businesses are often established through debit securities, then what is the need for equity securities. Companies have to cover multiple expenses and expansion of business. They can also use equity instruments for repayment of debits. So, there are multiple uses for securities. As an investor, you need tools for analysis. Investment decisions are made by carefully analyzing the market. For better analysis of the stock market, investors often employ financial analysis of companies.
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...Quotidiano Piemontese
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024
Una ricerca de il Club degli Investitori, in collaborazione con ToTeM Torino Tech Map e con il supporto della ESCP Business School e di Growth Capital
How to get verified on Coinbase Account?_.docxBuy bitget
t's important to note that buying verified Coinbase accounts is not recommended and may violate Coinbase's terms of service. Instead of searching to "buy verified Coinbase accounts," follow the proper steps to verify your own account to ensure compliance and security.
2. Equity View:
The crude prices shot up last week due to tensions building up in Iraq with Brent crude trading almost at
$114.50/Bbl. Iraq contributes around 3-4% of global oil production thus its impact on the world crude oil
dynamics is limited. This is also as Saudi Arabia and other gulf countries are already having incremental
supplies available with them. Currently the supply is being carried out as the oil producing southern part
of Iraq is still under direct control of the official government. However due to the nature of
unpredictability of the issue getting resolved soon, there could be some volatility in crude oil prices in the
near term. Though the prices have risen only by 4% if compared with the last year’s average, this could
be absorbed by India. Thus apart from inflation management which could become difficult, it could not
alter the overall macroeconomic situation in India.
The WPI inflation was released at 6%, up from 5.2% in the last month and the highest since Dec 2013.
This was due to an increase in core inflation largely as the pricing power remains with the manufacturing
sector which is surprising considering the fact that the demand has been subdued. This could also be one
of the few indicators of demand coming back and reviving economy. We have already witnessed
increased sales in cement, 2-wheelers and 3-wheelers segment.
We believe that there would no rate cut atleast in the next few months until there is a stable decline in
WPI and CPI inflation. The RBI’s core unit of measurement remains CPI which has been almost constant
for the last few months. However due to some probability of unfavorable monsoon there could be an
increase in food inflation thus CPI. We expect CPI to range between 8 and 9% until September when the
base effect could play out.
Both Iraq tensions and inflation issues are not powerful enough to alter our positive view on equities with
Sensex target of 29000. In the short term the markets will be driven by Q1 earning expected to start by
the second week of July. IT companies should be the first one to release their results.
News:
DOMESTIC MACRO:
Government clears seven big-ticket investment projects worth Rs 21000 cr.
India’s wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation rose to a five-month high of 6.01% in May
against 5.20% in the previous month, driven by costlier protein-based items, fuel & some manufactured
products.
Government hikes import tariff value on gold and silver to $411 per 10 grams and $632 per kg as
global prices have increased due to escalating violence in Iraq.
World Bank to provide financing of $500 mn for projects in north-east India including healthcare, e-
governance, infrastructure, and water management.
World Bank projects a 5.5% growth for India in 2014-15, 6.3% in 2015-16 and 6.6% in 2016-17.
3. GLOBAL MACRO
EURO
UK’s retail sales dropped 0.5% in May compared to a downwardly revised gain of 1% in April
Annual inflation in the Euro zone fell to 0.5% in May from 0.7% in April.
United States
US Federal Reserve reduced its monthly bond buying program from $45 billion to $35 billion starting
in July.
US current account deficit widens to $111.16 bn in Q1 2014 from 87.32 bn in Q4 2013 and 105.49 bn in the
same quarter a year ago.
IMF cuts US growth outlook for 2014 to 2% from the 2.8% it predicted in April, due to a weak first quarter.
China
China's average home prices fell 0.2% in May for the first time in two years and price weakness spread to
more major cities, adding to signs of cooling in the property market which are posing a growing risk to the
broader economy.
Indices:
Date Sensex Midcap Auto Bankex CD CG FMCG HC IT Metals O&G Power Realty Teck
16/06/14 25,190 8,967 15,032 17,221 8,200 15,674 6,889 10,839 9,032 13,093 11,365 2,227 2,029 5,091
17/06/14 25,521 9,101 15,127 17,613 8,259 15,976 6,877 10,849 9,071 13,300 11,690 2,269 2,046 5,129
18/06/14 25,246 9,035 14,974 17,424 8,128 15,829 6,827 10,856 8,976 13,177 11,523 2,235 2,003 5,091
19/06/14 25,202 8,997 15,016 17,265 8,204 15,734 6,843 10,921 9,145 13,067 11,165 2,217 1,996 5,160
20/06/14 25,106 8,962 14,878 17,197 8,489 15,603 6,842 10,817 9,149 12,982 11,114 2,199 2,007 5,163
-0.34% -0.05% -1.02% -0.14% 3.53% -0.45% -0.68% -0.20% 1.28% -0.84% -2.21% -1.24% -1.09% 1.43%
4. Commodities and Currency:
Date USD GBP EURO YEN
Crude
(Rs. per BBL)
Gold
(Rs. Per 10
gms)
16/06/2014 60.0059 101.998 81.2541 58.96 6459 26802
17/06/2014 60.368 102.4807 81.8665 59.21 6436 26788
18/06/2014 60.124 102.0004 81.431 58.81 6444 26731
19/06/2014 60.0031 102.0473 81.7106 58.94 6432 26673
20/06/2014 60.2785 102.7688 82.12 59.17 6451 26679
-0.45%
Rupee
Depreciated
-0.75%
Rupee
Depreciated
-1.05%
Rupee
Depreciated
-0.35%
Rupee
Depreciated
-0.12%
-0.46%
Debt:
Tenor Gilt Yield in % (Friday) Change in bps (Week)
1-Year 8.37 2
2-Year 8.29 -6
5-Year 8.58 10
10-Year 8.72 12
5. Varun Goel Jharna Agarwal
Nupur Gupta Ridhdhi Chheda
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