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Voter Behavior
- 1. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman
- 2. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman
- 3. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman Elections and Voting Behavior • Is an election an expression of popular will? • When we vote have we truly expressed our beliefs on public policy? • This chapter discusses why it is difficult for elections to be a mechanism for expressing the public’s desires.
- 4. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman Elections and Voting Behavior • Are the people represented by elections in America?
- 5. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman Chapter 10: Elections and Voting Behavior • How American Elections Work • A Tale of Three Elections • Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice • How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizens’ Decisions • The Last Battle: The Electoral College • Understanding Elections and Voting Behavior • Summary
- 6. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman Chapter Outline and Learning Objectives • How American Elections Work • LO 10.1: Distinguish the types of elections in the United States. • A Tale of Three Elections • LO 10.2: Trace the evolution of the American electoral process from 1800 to the present.
- 7. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman Chapter Outline and Learning Objectives • Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice • LO 10.3: Identify the factors that influence whether people vote or not. • How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizens ’ Decisions • LO 10.4: Assess the impact of party identification, candidate evaluations, and policy opinions on voting behavior.
- 8. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman Chapter Outline and Learning Objectives • The Last Battle: The Electoral College • LO 10.5: Evaluate the fairness of the Electoral College system for choosing the president. • Understanding Elections and Voting Behav • LO 10.6: Assess the extent to which elections make government officials pay attention to what voters want.
- 9. How American Elections Work LO 10.1: Distinguish the types of elections in the United States. • Functions of Elections • Institutionalize political activity – Make it possible for most political participation to be channeled through the electoral process. • Regular access to political power – Leaders can be replaced. • Legitimacy – Fair and free way of selecting political leaders. To Learning Objectives Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman
- 10. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman How American Elections Work • Three Kinds of Elections • Primary elections – Voters select party nominees. • General elections – Between the nominees of the parties. • Elections on specific policy questions – Voters make (initiative petition) or ratify (referendum) legislation. LO 10.1 To Learning Objectives
- 11. To Learning Objectives Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman LO 10.1
- 12. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman Marijuana legalization passes in Colorado, Washington By Aaron Smith @AaronSmithCNN November 8, 2012 Voters in Washington and Colorado passed ballot initiatives Tuesday to legalize marijuana for recreational use, the biggest victory ever for the legalization movement.
- 13. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman Ballot Initiatives 2015 https://ballotpedia.org/2015_ballot_measures
- 14. Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice LO 10.3: Identify the factors that influence whether people vote or not. • Deciding Whether to Vote • Registering to Vote • Who Votes? To Learning Objectives Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman
- 15. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice • Suffrage • The legal right to vote, in the United States gradually extended to virtually all citizens over the age of 18. LO 10.3 To Learning Objectives
- 16. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman
- 17. To Learning Objectives Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman LO 10.3
- 18. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice • Deciding Whether to Vote • Anthony Downs – People who see policy differences between the parties are more likely to vote. • Political Efficacy – Belief that one’s vote does matter and can actually make a difference. • Civic Duty – Belief that a citizen should vote to support democratic government. To Learning Objectives LO 10.3
- 19. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice • Registering to Vote • Voter Registration – A system adopted by the states that requires voters to register prior to voting. • Motor Voter Act – A 1993 act that requires states to permit people to register to vote when they apply for their driver’s license. To Learning Objectives LO 10.3
- 20. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman Voter Registration • Montco Election Board
- 21. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice • Who Votes? • Education – People with a higher than average education vote more than people with less education. • Age – Older people vote more than younger people. • Race – Racial minorities are usually underrepresented among voters relative to their share of the citizenry. To Learning Objectives LO 10.3
- 22. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice • Who Votes? • Gender – Women participate in elections slightly more than men do. • Marital status – Married people vote more than unmarried people. • Government employment – Workers for the government vote more than people who have jobs in the in private sector. To Learning Objectives LO 10.3
- 23. To Learning Objectives Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman LO 10.3
- 24. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice • Who Votes? • Possessing several of these traits (being elderly, well educated, and married) adds significantly to one’s likelihood of voting. • Conversely, being young, poorly educated, and single is likely to add up to a very low probability of voting. To Learning Objectives LO 10.3
- 25. How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizens’ Decisions LO 10.4: Assess the impact of party identification, candidate evaluations, and policy opinions on voting behavior. • Party Identification • Candidate Evaluations: How Americans See the Candidates • Policy Voting To Learning Objectives Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman
- 26. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizens’ Decisions • Mandate Theory of Elections • The idea that the winning candidate has a mandate from the people to carry out his or her platforms and politics. • Politicians like the theory better than political scientists do. LO 10.4 To Learning Objectives
- 27. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizens’ Decisions • Party Identification • People still generally vote for a party that they agree with. • Parties’ hold on voters declined in the 1960s and 1970s with rise of candidate- centered politics. • Many floating voters make an individual voting decision and are up for grabs each election. To Learning Objectives LO 10.4
- 28. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizens’ Decisions • Candidate Evaluations: How Americans See the Candidates • 3 most important dimensions of candidate image are integrity, reliability, and competence. • Image plays a role in voting when a candidate is perceived to be incompetent or dishonest. To Learning Objectives LO 10.4
- 29. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizens’ Decisions • Policy Voting • Electoral choices that are made on the basis of the voters’ policy preferences and where the candidates stand on policy issues. To Learning Objectives LO 10.4
- 30. The Last Battle: The Electoral College LO 10.5: Evaluate the fairness of the Electoral College system for choosing the president. • Electoral College • A unique American institution, created by the Constitution, providing for the selection of the president by electors. • Less populated states are overrepresented. • Winner-take-all concentrates campaigns on close states. To Learning Objectives Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman
- 31. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman The Last Battle: The Electoral College • How Electoral College Works • Electoral votes for each state equals its members in Congress. • 48 states use winner-take-all system (not Maine and Nebraska). • State electors vote in December following the November election. • January – Congress counts votes. • House of Representatives picks president if no majority vote. LO 10.5 To Learning Objectives
- 32. To Learning Objectives Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman LO 10.5
- 33. To Learning Objectives Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman LO 10.5
- 34. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman The Last Battle: The Electoral College • Important Electoral College • The less populated states are overrepresented because states get 2 electors for the senators regardless of population. • Winner-take-all means candidates will focus on winning the states where the polls show that there appears to be a close contest. To Learning Objectives LO 10.5
- 35. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman • 270 to Win
- 36. Understanding Elections and Voting Behavior LO 10.6: Assess the extent to which elections make government officials pay attention to what voters want. • Democracy and Elections • Elections and the Scope of Government To Learning Objectives Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman
- 37. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman Understanding Elections and Voting Behavior • Democracy and Elections • The greater the policy differences between candidates, the more likely voters will be able to steer government policy by their choices. • Retrospective voting – Voters cast a vote based on what a candidate has done for them lately. LO 10.6 To Learning Objectives
- 38. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman Understanding Elections and Voting Behavior • Elections and the Scope of Government • Elections accomplish two tasks • Select policymakers • Help shape public policy • Voters feel they are sending a message to government to accomplish something. To Learning Objectives LO 10.6
- 39. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman • Threats of election defeat constrain policymakers • Increases support for government • Legitimatize the power of the state • “people see the government as their servant instead of their master”
- 40. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman The End
Editor's Notes
- Brief Contents of Chapter 10: Elections and Voting Behavior
- Lecture Tips and Suggestions for In-Class Activities Tell students that one of the most controversial propositions on any state ballot in 2008 was California’s Proposition 8 regarding the state’s definition of marriage. Over $75 million was spent by the two sides of the issue. In the end, the effort to outlaw gay marriage passed by a narrow margin. Ask students what issues would they use initiative petitions for and why. Ask students to construct a table that compares the presidential elections of 1800, 1896, and 2008 in terms of the major political parties involved and their candidates, the winners, the new main issues, the campaign styles of the candidates, and the significance of the election.
- Lecture Tips and Suggestions for In-Class Activities Ask students to research the legislative history of the Motor Voter Act. Who supported the act? Who opposed it? Why? Most political scholars have found that the Motor Voter Act has failed. Why? Divide your class into two sections and ask them to take opposing positions on the following question: Is it reasonable for a voter to look at personality and “character” traits as a basis for judging candidates for public office? Class discussion on this topic is often animated and responsive.
- Lecture Tips and Suggestions for In-Class Activities Tell students that 16 states were identified by the Obama and/or the McCain campaigns in 2008 as battleground states. All the other states were regarded by both campaigns as safely in the pocket of one candidate or the other. Ask students the following questions. If your state was a battleground state, what sorts of attention from the presidential candidates do you think it got that the non-battleground states did not? If your state was not a battleground state, how do you think the campaign might have been different for you if the presidential election had been decided by the popular vote rather than the Electoral College? Do you think it makes a difference that the presidential campaigns pay so much more attention to a select set of battleground states than to the other states? Why or why not? Tell students that most policies have consequences for the well-being of certain groups or the society as a whole. Those who feel better off as a result of certain policies are likely to support candidates who pledge to continue those policies, whereas those who feel worse off are inclined to support opposition candidates. Ask students as a voter answer the question “What have you done for me lately?” so that they can understand how policies can also affect elections.
- Lecture Outline How American Elections Work Elections serve many important functions in American society, including legitimizing the actions of elected officials. They socialize and institutionalize political activity, making it possible for most political participation to be peacefully channeled through the electoral process. Political legitimacy means that the people within a nation accept the procedures by which rules and transfers of power are made. American voters rarely question the fairness of election results, allowing officeholders to govern with a legitimacy they can take for granted.
- Lecture Outline How American Elections Work Some unique American electoral features. Unlike most other democracies, the United States has three kinds of elections: those which select party nominees, those which select officeholders from among the nominees, and those in which voters engage in making or ratifying legislation. Elections held for the purpose of picking party nominees are called primaries. The initiative petition enables voters in 23 states to place proposed legislation on the ballot if they gather the required number of signatures on a petition (usually a number equaling 10 percent of the voters in the previous election). The referendum is a form of direct legislation in which voters are given the chance to approve or disapprove some legislative act (such as school bonds) or constitutional amendment.
- LO 10.1 Image: One of the most controversial propositions on any state ballot in 2008 was California’s Proposition 8 regarding the state’s definition of marriage.
- Lecture Outline It is essential to identify the factors that influence whether people vote or not.
- Lecture Outline Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice Nearly two centuries of American electoral history include greatly expanded suffrage (the right to vote). As the right to vote has been extended, proportionately fewer of those eligible have chosen to exercise that right. The highest turnout of the past 100 years was the 80 percent turnout in 1896; in 2004, 55 percent of the adult population voted for president.
- LO 10.3 Image: Although civic courses routinely stress that in a democracy every vote matters, elections for public office rarely hinge on a single vote or end up in a tie.
- Lecture Outline Deciding Whether to Vote One reason why many people vote is that they have a high sense of political efficacy— the belief that ordinary people can influence the government. Those who vote out of a sense of civic duty are people who vote simply to support democratic government (even if they are indifferent about the outcome).
- Lecture Outline Registering to Vote States adopted voter registration around the turn of the century, largely to prevent corruption associated with stuffing the ballot boxes. Registration procedures differ greatly from one state to another. States in the upper Great Plains and the Northwest make it easiest to register; there is no registration at all in North Dakota; and four states permit registration on election day. States in the South still face the most difficult forms of registration (and they also record lower voter turnout rates). This changed somewhat when the 1993 Motor Voter Act went into effect in 1996. The act requires states to permit people to register to vote at the same time citizens apply for driver’s licenses. The Motor Voter Act makes voter registration much easier by allowing eligible voters to simply check a box on their driver’s license application or renewal form.
- Lecture Outline Who Votes? Voting is a class-biased activity. People with higher than average education and income levels have a higher rate of voting. This is the most important factor affecting turnout. Young people have the lowest turnout rate. Whites vote with greater frequency than members of minority groups (but Blacks and other minority groups with high levels of income and education have a higher turnout rate than Whites with comparable socioeconomic status).
- Lecture Outline Who Votes? Women are slightly more likely than men to vote. Married people are more likely to vote than unmarried people. Government employees have higher than average turnout levels.
- Table 10.1 Reported Turnout Rates for Groups of U.S. Citizens in 2008
- Lecture Outline Who Votes? The political consequences of class bias in turnout. Research suggests that some political outcomes would be different if there was no class bias in turnout. Politicians pay attention to groups with high levels of turnout, because their fate may be in their hands at the next election.
- Lecture Outline Conversely, political scientists know that people rarely vote a certain way for the same reasons. Political scientists focus instead on three major elements of voters’ decisions: voters’ party identification, voters’ evaluations of the candidates, and the match between voters’ policy positions and those of the candidates and parties (known as policy voting).
- Lecture Outline How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizens’ Decisions Many journalists and politicians believe the winner of an election has a mandate from the people to carry out the policies he or she promised during the campaign.
- Lecture Outline Party Identification Because of the importance of party identification in deciding how to vote, the parties tended to rely on groups that lean heavily in their favor to form their basic coalition. With the emergence of television and candidate-centered politics, the hold of the party on the voter eroded substantially during the 1960s and 1970s, and then stabilized at a new and lower level during the 1980s. Scholars singled out party affiliation as the single best predictor of a voter’s decision in the 1950s. Voting along party lines is less common today, particularly in elections for the House of Representatives, where incumbency is now of paramount importance.
- Lecture Outline Candidate Evaluations: How Americans See the Candidates Political psychologists Shawn Rosenberg and Patrick McCafferty show that it is possible to manipulate a candidate’s appearance in a way that affects voters’ choices (even by substituting a good picture for a bad one). Research by Miller, Wattenberg, and Malanchuk shows that the three most important components of candidate image are integrity, reliability, and competence. In 2000, George W. Bush scored higher than Al Gore in the dimension of integrity. Integrity is not enough; a candidate must also be seen as being reliable, i.e., dependable and decisive. George H. W. Bush’s image of reliability suffered when he broke his “no new taxes” pledge prior to the 1992 campaign. The personal traits most often mentioned by voters involve competence, i.e., experience, which is one of the reasons it is hard to beat an incumbent president.
- Lecture Outline Policy Voting Policy voting occurs when people base their choices in an election on their own issue preferences. True policy voting can take place only when several conditions are met. Voters must have a clear view of their own policy positions. Voters must know where the candidates stand on policy issues. Voters must see a difference between candidates on these issues. Voters must actually cast a vote for the candidate whose policy positions coincide with their own. One recurrent problem is that candidates often decide that the best way to handle a controversial issue is to cloud their positions in rhetoric; both candidates may be deliberately ambiguous. The media also may not be helpful, as they typically focus more on the “horse race” aspects of the campaign than on the policy stands of the candidates. Although it is questionable whether voters are really much more sophisticated now about issues, policy voting has become somewhat easier than in the past. Today’s candidates are compelled to take clear stands to appeal to their own party’s primary voters. Thus, it is the electoral process that has changed rather than the voters.
- Lecture Outline The Last Battle: The Electoral College It is the Electoral College vote rather than the popular vote that actually determines the outcome of the presidential election. Because the founders wanted the president to be selected by the nation’s elite—and not directly by the people—they created the electoral college. Political practice since 1828 has been for electors to vote for the candidate who won their state’s popular vote.
- Lecture Outline The Last Battle: The Electoral College Each state, according to the Constitution, has as many electoral votes as it has U.S. senators and representatives. Forty-eight out of the fifty states employ a winner-take-all system in which all their electors are awarded to the presidential candidate who wins the most votes statewide. In Maine and Nebraska, an elector is allocated for every congressional district won, and whoever wins the state as a whole wins the two electors allotted to the state for its senators. In 2008, Obama won the congressional district around Omaha, Nebraska, whereas McCain won the other two districts and the overall state vote. Therefore, Nebraska’s electoral vote ended up being split with four for McCain and one for Obama. Electors meet in their states in December, following the November election, and then mail their votes to the vice president (who is also president of the Senate). The vote is counted when the new congressional session opens in January and is reported by the vice president. If no candidate receives an Electoral College majority, then the election is thrown into the House of Representatives (1800 and 1824 elections), which must choose from among the top three electoral vote winners.
- LO 10.5 Image: Every four years, members of the Electoral College meet in their respective state capitols to cast the ballots that actually determine who will be president.
- LO 10.5 Image: The 2008 Battlegrounds
- Lecture Outline The Last Battle: The Electoral College The Electoral College is important to the presidential election for two reasons. First, it introduces a bias into the campaign and electoral process. Because each state gets two electors for its senators regardless of population, the less populated states are overrepresented. One of the key reasons that George W. Bush won the Electoral College vote in 2000 without winning the popular vote was that he did better in the less-populated states, as shown in Table 10.3. A second reason for the importance of the Electoral College is that the winner-take-all norm means candidates will necessarily focus on winning the states where the polls show that there appears to be a close contest.
- Lecture Outline According to democratic theory, elections accomplish two tasks: they select the policymakers, and they are supposed to help shape public policy. In the hypothetical world of rational choice theory and the Downs model (see Chapter 8), elections do in fact guide public policy. Social science research on the question has produced mixed findings. Elections do affect public policy to some degree, and public policy decisions also partly affect electoral outcomes.
- Lecture Outline Democracy and Elections The greater the policy differences between the candidates, the more likely it is that voters will be able to influence government policies by their choices. As long as politicians can take refuge in ambiguity, the possibility of democratic control of policy is lessened. When individual candidates offer a clear choice, voters are more able to guide the government’s policy direction. Most policies have consequences for the well-being of certain groups or for society as a whole. According to the theory of retrospective voting, voters essentially ask the question, “What have you done for me lately?” Public policy—especially the perception of economic policy impacts—can affect elections. In presidential elections, people who are unhappy with the state of the economy tend to blame the incumbent.
- Lecture Outline Elections and the Scope of Government While the threat of election defeat constrains policymakers, it also helps to increase generalized support for government and its powers. Elections legitimize the power of the state, thereby making it easier to expand the scope of the government. When people have the power to dole out electoral reward and punishment, they are more likely to see government as their servant instead of their master. As a result, citizens in a democracy often seek to benefit from government (rather than to be protected from it). As democracy has spread, government has come to do more and more, and its scope has grown.