Presentation delivered by Timothy M. Renick (Georgia State University) on March 2, 2015. ABSTRACT Through the proactive use of data and analytics, Georgia State University has designed a series of interventions which have been partly responsible for raising institutional graduation rates by 22 percentage points. Large-scale programs have included transforming all 7,500 seats in pre-calculus math courses into a hybrid format using adaptive learning (responsible for cutting DWF rates in these courses in half over a five-year period), implementing financial counseling and academic-skills interventions for students who lose the Hope scholarship (which has helped to double the graduation rates for these students), and developing an advising system based on predictive analytics which tracks all undergraduates daily (and which has produced a 5-point increase in semester-to semester retention).

1. USING DATA AND PREDICTIVE
ANALYTICS TO HELP AT-RISK
STUDENTS SUCCEED
Timothy M. Renick, Ph.D.
Vice President for Enrollment Management & Student Success
Vice Provost

2. 2
THE BENEFITS OF A COLLEGE DEGREE
Source: "The Rising Costs of Not Going to College,” Pew Research Center, 2014

3. 0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Bachelor'sDegreeAttainmentRate
(moving3-yeraverage)
Bottom Income Quartile
Second Income Quartile
Third Income Quartile
Top Income Quartile
82.4%
40.2%
14.9%
36.1%
16.5%
10.9%
6.2% 8.3%
Baccalaureate Degree Attainment
by Age 24 by Family Income Quartile
1970 to Present
Source: New York Times, “The Reproduction of Privilege,” March 12, 2012
THE CHALLENGE IN FRONT OF US
3

4. 4
GEORGIA STATE’S CHANGING STUDENT BODY

5. 5
CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS: RACE & ETHNICITY

6. 25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
Neg. Need -
0 Need
>0 -3K 3K - 6K 6K-9K 9K-12K 12K-15K 15K+
66
(Fall 2008, Undergraduate Students)
Percent of Students with a 3.0 GPA or Above by Financial Need
Impact Of Unmet Financial Need
On Academic Performance
THE COMMON CHALLENGES

7. Early GPA Trends Are Hard to Reverse
7
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
AverageGPA
Term
GPA Trends by Graduate and Dropout Cohort
2008 Freshman Cohort (1st Term GPA 2.0 - 2.75)
Term 8
Grads (25)
Term 9
Grads (38) Term 10
Grads (41)
Term 11
Grads (19)
Term 12
Grads (25)
Term 3 Dropouts
(16)
Term 4
Dropouts (35)
Term 5
Dropouts (16)
Term 6
Dropouts (22)
Term 7 Dropouts (11)
Term 8 Dropouts
(15)
Term 9
Dropouts (10)
Term 10 Dropouts (6)
Term 11
Dropouts (9)
Term 12
Dropouts (10)

8. 8
• Use Data to Identify Problems
• Pilot
• Revise
• Pitch
• Scale
PROACTIVE INTERVENTIONS

9. 9
BEFORE FRESHMAN FALL
SUMMER SUCCESS ACADEMY
• 340 Highest At-Risk Freshmen (low previous retention)
• Summer session before freshman fall with 7 credit hours of
bachelor’s-level work
• Intensive advisement
• Academic skills
• Financial literacy training
• Team building
Retention Rate 2011: 50%
Retention Rate Today: 87%

10. 10
Freshman Learning Communities with block schedules
of 5 to 6 courses: 95% of non-Honors Freshmen
(Opt-out model)
Meta Majors:
STEM
Business
Arts and Humanities
Health
Education
Policy and Social Science
Exploratory
META MAJORS AND BLOCK SCHEDULING

11. 1111
Supplemental Instruction (SI)
2.41
2.60
2.68
2.55
2.15
2.06
1.89
2.82
3.24
2.93
2.74
2.64
2.73
2.26
1
2
3
4
BIOL POLS PHIL CHEM ACCT PHYS CRJU
No
SI
SI No
SI
SI No
SI
SI No
SI
SI No
SI
SI No
SI
SI No
SI
SI
MAXIMIZING EXISTING RESOURCES
Average course GPA
Non SI: 2.41
SI: 2.91
One-Year Retention
No SI: 83.5%
SI: 91.2%
Students Benefitted 2013-14:
9,700

12. 12
College Algebra, Pre-Calculus, Intro to Stats
 Prior to Change: DFW rates were 43%
Fall 2013: DFW rate of 21%
 Number of Students enrolled in courses taught
through the MILE, 2012-13: 7,500+
 Additional passing grades: 1,650
COURSE REDESIGN

13. Academic Program Redesign: Nursing

14. Academic Program Redesign
14

15. 15
Panther Retention Grants: Impact
Fall 2011 Grants: 41
Grants to Date: 3,724
Average Grant: $900
Senior recipients graduating
within two semesters: 70%
Continuing Students recipients retained: 90%
FINANCIAL INTERVENTIONS

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Georgia State’s Web-Based
GPS Advising System
 A collaboration with the Education
Advisory Board and four other
schools
 Based on 10 years of RPG data at
Georgia State and 2.5 million grades
 Live, nightly feeds from Banner and daily alerts to
advisors if students have missed any of the markers
 Predictive analytics for each student’s success in
individual majors and courses
 Tracks 700+ alerts for risk factors
ADVISEMENT

17. MAJOR MAPS
Chemistry (B.S.)
Semester 1 Semester 2
 Complete 1 of ENGL 1101, ENGL 1102 or
ENGL 1103 (C or Better)
 Complete MATH 1113 or Higher (B- or
Better)
 Complete CHEM 1211K (B- or Better)
 Complete ENGL 1102 or 1103 (C or
Better)
 Complete MATH 2211 or Higher (B- or
Better)
 Complete CHEM 1212K (B- or Better)
 Maintain a cumulative GPA of 2.25 or
Better
Semester 3 Semester 4
 Complete CHEM 2400 (B- or Better)
 Complete MATH 2212 (C or better)
 Complete PHY 2211k (C or better)
 Complete CHEM 3410 (C or better)
 PHY 2212k ( B- or Better) (C or better)
 Maintain a cumulative GPA of 2.25 or
Better
Semester 5 Semester 6
 Complete CHEM 4000 with a C or Better
 Complete CHEM 4110 with a C or Better
 Complete CHEM 4010 with a C or Better
 Complete CHEM 4120 with a C or Better
Semester 7 Semester 8
 Complete CHEM 4160 with a B- or better  Complete CHEM 4190 with a C or Better

18. 18
Graduation Rate in Major by Introductory Course Grade
ALERTS BASED ON HISTORICAL DATA

19. 19
STUDENT HISTORIES

20. 20
MAJOR MATCHING
Predictive Analytics for Courses and Majors

21. 21
CAREER PATHWAYS

22. 22
CAREER PATHWAYS

23. What’s Next: Alerts on Personal Devices
23

24. 24
• University Advisement Center student visits in the
last 12 months: 42,524
• Pre-Term Registration Corrections: 2,000+
• Required Advising for Major Changes: 6,945
RESULTS: KEEPING STUDENTS ON PATH

25. 25
RESULTS: INCREASED RETENTION

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PRELIMINARY RESULTS: REDUCED TIME AND
COST

27. 27
GROWING NATIONAL ATTENTION
THE WALL
STREET
JOURNAL

28. 28
WHITE HOUSE COLLEGE OPPORTUNITY SUMMIT

29. 29
Georgia State Degree Conferrals
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
5-Yr
Change
5,857 6,188 6,419 6,901 7,365 7,590 +30%
MAKING A DIFFERENCE

30. 30
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
5-YR
Change
AFRICAN
AMERICAN
1,067 1,001 1,322 1,440 1,550 1,692 59%
PELL 1,066 1,298 1,648 1,835 2,007 2,058 93%
HISPANIC 153 196 300 328 372 414 171%
BACHELOR’S DEGREES AWARDED

31. 31
Top 100 Degree Producers
2012 Bachelor's Degrees Conferred to African Americans Nationally
Total
%
Grads %Chg
Institutions State 2010-2011
1Georgia State University GA 1262 31% 17%
2FAMU FL 1224 94% 5%
3North Carolina A & T State University NC 1172 90% -6%
4Jackson State University MS 966 94% 4%
5Howard University D.C. 953 93% -10%
6University of Central Florida FL 939 9% 10%
7University of Memphis TN 862 32% 0%
8Troy University AL 859 32% 4%
9University of Florida FL 859 10% 11%
10University of South Florida-Main Campus FL 845 12% 6%
11University of North Texas TX 835 13% 11%
12Temple University PA 831 15% -5%
13University of Maryland-University College MD 809 25% 11%
14Florida Atlantic University FL 808 18% -3%
15Virginia Commonwealth University VA 805 19% 13%
Source: Diverse Issues in Higher Education
MAKING A DIFFERENCE

32. 32
GEORGIA STATE GRADUATION RATES, 2003-PRESENT

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GRADUATION RATES BY RACE & ETHNICITY

34. 34
MAKING A DIFFERENCE