The document outlines the USA's strategy against Iran for its regional ambitions, including withdrawing from the JCPOA, reinstating sanctions on Iran, and designating Iran's Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization. It discusses the impact of sanctions on Iran and Iran's responses, as well as increased military posturing by both sides in the Persian Gulf that raises risks of open conflict.

1. USA Strategy
Against Iran for its
Regional Ambitions

2. • Introduction:
. In 1979, the Iranians deposed the
Western-backed Shah Mohammad Reza
Pahlavi.
. Iran has attempted to increase its role
and influence in the larger Middle East.
. Iran has supported various Shiite proxy
groups throughout the region.

3. • Abstract:
. USA withdrawal from the JCPOA.
. Trump administration cancelled
the US waivers.
. USA designated Iran's elite
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a
foreign terrorist organization.
. Iran’s tit for tat response.

4. • Background:
. Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
(JCPOA) signed between Iran and the
P5+1 countries.
i) Limiting the enrichment of uranium.
ii) Redesign heavy-water reactor which
was being built.
iii) Allowing inspections by the IAEA.

5. • Following sanctions will be lifted:
i) On oil and gas and other exports
which were a main source of revenue
for the Iranian government.
ii) Allowing import of weapons.
iii) Unfreezing of Iran’s frozen
accounts and assets.

6. • President Donald Trump and the Iran Deal:
• President Donald Trump’s unilateral decision to
withdraw from the agreement was said to be
because of the following reasons:
• i) Pressure and influence of Israel.
• ii) Opposition of the GCC towards this deal.
• iii) Electoral Commitment to withdraw from deal.

7. • US Sanctions on Iran:
i) Imposition of US Travel Ban:
ii) Sanctions on Oil, Banking and Shipping
Sectors.
iii) Sanctions on Iranian Individuals,
Businesses, and Banks.
iv) Designation of Iranian Revolutionary
Guard Corps as a Foreign Terrorist
Organization.

8. v) Sanctions on Iran’s Metal Industry
vi) Ending Iranian Sale of Heavy Water and
Exchange Enriched Uranium for Unrefined
Yellowcake Uranium with Russia.
vii) Ending Waivers for Nations Buying Iranian
Crude Oil.

9. • US Waivers to Eight Countries:
China, India, Italy, Greece, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and
Turkey.
i) Continue to invest in the Iranian port of Chahbhar.
ii) Construction of a railway line from the Iranian port city to the
Afghan border.
. Formation of Instrument in Support of Trade
Exchanges
In January 2019, a transactional channel to allow European
companies to continue trading with Iran.

10. • Impact of Sanctions on Iran:
• $100 billion loss annually to Iran only in the context of energy
export.
• Iran’s Response to the Sanctions:
• a) Trading Cyber attacks.
• b) Iranian President’s Speech and 60-day Ultimatum to the EU.
• c) Threat to Block Strait of Hormuz.
• EU’s Reaction to Iran’s Ultimatum:
• France, the United Kingdom, and Germany, the EU rejected Iran’s 60-day
ultimatum.

11. • Retaliatory Measures by the US in Response to the
Iranian Announcement:
• Imposed sanctions on Iran’s metal industry.
• Deployed US B-52 bombers at a base in Qatar.
• Announced to send another warship USS Arlington, with its
amphibious vehicles and aircraft on board, to the USS Abraham
Lincoln strike group in the Gulf’.
• Decided to deploy Patriot-missile defense system in the
Middle East. The Patriot system can counter ballistic missiles,
cruise missiles and advanced aircraft.
• Blacklisted Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps.

12. USS Abraham Lincoln
B-52 bomber & USS Arlington

13. Strait of Hormuz

14. • Drums of War:
• On 29th April, John Bolton held a unusual meeting at the CIA headquarters.
• Bolton is trying to maneuver both Iran and President Trump into a corner
where they have no alternative but war.
• If the Americans make a move, we will hit them in the head, said by senior
Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander.
• Forecast:
• Iran has threatened to choke the Strait of Hormuz.
• US has signed an agreement to use the ‘Duqm port’, strategically located
on the southern coast of Oman.
• The strategic framework agreement allows the US Navy to access ‘Salalah
port’ in Oman’s Southwest.

15. • Options for Iran:
• Either confront the US, or suffer silently.
• Second option for Tehran is to withdraw from the JCPOA, and its 60 days
ultimatum hints at this move.
• Third options is to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
(NPT).
• Fourth option is to carry out attacks on the US forces and its partner
countries through its proxies in the region.
• Implications for the US:
• Iran has much experience in the ways of using its proxies for carrying out
its regional objectives.
• US has 2,000 troops in Syria where Iran and its proxies have a physical
military presence.

16. • 5,000 security forces in Iraq, where Iran remains an influential player.
• 14,000 troops in Afghanistan where Tehran has made cause with the Taliban
in the fight against ISIS.
• Implications for KSA:
• the biggest challenge for Riyadh would be to maintain its strategic oil
supplies to its customers around the world.
• Iran can potentially disrupt the oil supply and maritime operations of oil
shipments of KSA and UAE to the West by encouraging Houthis in Yemen,
to target them.
• Tehran aligned proxies would try to harm Riyadh’s key strategic, and
economic interests in the region.