This document discusses the developments in international climate change negotiations from 1979 to 2009. It outlines the key outcomes and paradigms during different time periods. It also discusses the issues being negotiated at the 2009 Copenhagen conference, including long-term emissions reduction targets, targets for developed countries, commitments from developing countries, financial mechanisms, and reducing deforestation. The document argues that the pledges from developed countries to reduce emissions are conditional and allow many loopholes. There are also concerns about how commitments from developing countries will be implemented and whether actions will actually be taken.

1. Institute for Environmental Studies; UNESCO IHE Institute for Water Education Consensus in Copenhagen: Breaking the Institutional bottleneck By Professor Joyeeta Gupta

2. The Developments so far Period The paradigm Key outcomes 1: Before 1990 Framing the problem 1979: First World Climate Conference 1988: Toronto Conference; Establishment of IPCC 1989: High level political conferences 1990: Second World Climate Conference; First Assessment Report of IPCC 2: 1991-1996 Leadership articulated 1992: Climate Change Convention 1995: COP-1 -- Berlin Mandate; AIJ 1996: Second Assessment Report of IPCC 3: 1997-2001 Conditional leadership 1997: COP-3 -- The Kyoto Protocol 2000: Third Assessment Report of IPCC 2001: COP-7 -- The Marrakech Accords 2001: US withdraws from Kyoto 4: 2002-2007 Leadership competition … ....: US initiates many agreements 2005: Kyoto enters into force 2007: COP-13-- Bali Roadmap 5: Post 2008 Developing countries taking lead? 2008: Global recession starts 2009: COP-15 -- Copenhagen agreement?

3. Problem: leadership? US EU S Leadership paradigm N S Conditional leadership Leadership sans US EU S CEITS US JSCaNZ US Leadership competition Development N S Pollution Inverted U curve may be a zig-zag curve

6. The Kyoto Protocol, 97 Protocol Preamble Policies and measures -2 QUELRC -3 Joint fulfilment -4 Joint Imple- mentation -6 CDM -12 Financial mechanism -11 Emission trading -17 Communi- cation -7 Implement existing obligations -10 Review of information -8 Review of Protocol -9 Non-comp liance - 18 Dispute settlement - 19 Other issues including entry into force 20-28 Multilateral consultative process -16 COP-13 Secretariat - 14 Subsidiary bodies - 15 Definitions -1 Methods -5 Organisational framework

12. Impact of loopholes on 1990 Annex 1 emissions in 2020 Source: ECO, 10 Dec Inclusion of loopholes means 4% reduction from 1990 levels

16. Arguments against using ODA: Political sensitivities EU offer 2.4 billion per year, recycles ODA Development cooperation Climate assistance 1.0% of GNI 0.7% of GNI Time Mainstreaming Actual climate assistance Expectations/ needs Actual assistance

17. Arguments against: Resources needed Current ODA Additional ODA needed for MDGs ODA needed for Agenda 21 Aid for climate change Total USD billion 100 60-135 125 40-250 315-611 Comment <0.4% of donor GNI Clemens et al. 2007 Ch. 33, Agenda 21 Lit. OverlapsAssumptions

18. This lecture is premature: Everything happens last minute! Source–The Economist, reprinted from Joe Romm (http://www.climateprogress.org ) 23-11-2009