The UNEP Emissions Gap Report analyzes the difference between countries' emission pledges and levels needed to meet climate targets. It finds an "emissions gap" of 8-12 gigatons of CO2 equivalent by 2020 to meet a 2 degree target, and more to hit 1.5 degrees. Current global emissions are estimated around 50 gigatons and projected to be 59 gigatons by 2020 without more action. To close the gap, the report recommends stricter accounting, increasing the scope and conditionality of pledges, and enhancing international cooperation on low-carbon technologies and practices.

1. UNEP Emissions Gap
Report
A synopsis

2. What is the “Gap”?
• The emissions or gigatonne gap is the
difference between emission levels in 2020
consistent with meeting climate targets, and
levels expected in that year based on the
country commitments and pledges
• The gap is based on assumptions of least cost
and feasible global emission trajectories to
meet the 2 or 1.5 degree target

3. Global emissions profile
• Estimated at 50.1 GtCO2e per year (range:
45.6–54.6 GtCO2e per year. Median 48.8
GtCO2e)
• Required emission levels in 2020 to meet
targets are 44 GtCO2e per year
• BAU emission levels in 2020 estimated to be
59 GtCO2e per year
• Emission reduction pledges and commitments
amount to 3–7 GtCO2e per year.

4. Countries with pledges
• Australia, China, the European Union, India and
the Russian Federation are on track to meet their
targets
• Canada, Japan, Mexico and the U.S. and perhaps
South Korea are not on track to meet their
targets
• Not enough information available on Brazil,
Indonesia and South Africa

5. Estimated emissions gap 2020
• 8–12 GtCO2e per year even if all pledges are
met to meet the 2 degrees target
• Additional gap of 2–5 GtCO2e per in order to
meet the 1.5 degrees target

6. Required emissions to meet targets in
2025, 2030 and 2050
• 2025 target is approximately 40 GtCO2e per
year (range: 35–45 GtCO2e)
• 2030 target is 35 GtCO2e per year (range: 32–
42 GtCO2e)
• 2050 target is 22 GtCO2e per year (range: 18–
25 GtCO2e)
• All these targets are based on the assumption
that the 2020 target will be achieved

7. Implications of not meeting 2020
emission targets
• Costs of adaptation will increase
• Currently available technologies will not be
sufficient
• Deployment of technologies to achieve
negative emissions or control solar radiation
will be required. These technologies could
have significant environmental impacts

8. Implications of not meeting 2020
emission targets
• Higher rates of global emission reductions in the
medium term
• Greater lock-in of carbon-intensive infrastructure
• Greater dependence on certain unproven
technologies in the medium-term
• Greater costs and magnitude of mitigation in the
medium- and long-term
• Greater risks of economic disruption
• Greater risks of failing to meet the 2° C target

9. How to bridge the gap?
• Strict accounting rules on land use
• Move from unconditional to conditional pledges
• Increase the scope of current pledges
• Enhanced international cooperation on energy
efficiency, fossil fuel subsidies, elimination of
short lived pollutants and enhanced renewable
energy deployment
• Enhanced national efforts on low emission
agriculture