1. TTP Challenging the Writ: Military
Action and Results
Dr Tughral Yamin
Associate Dean
Centre for International Peace &
Stability (CIPS)

2. RESEARCH QUESTIONS
• WHO ARE THE TTP?
• WHY ARE THEY CHALLENGING THE WRIT OF
THE STATE?
• WHAT HAS THE MILITARY ACTION ACHIEVED
SO FAR?
• HOW CAN THE WRIT OF THE STATE BE TRULY
RESTORED?

4. WHO ARE THE TTP?
• PARADOXICAL PHENOMENON
– IDENTIFIES ITSELF WITH THE STATE OF PAKISTAN AND
– YET IT IS BENT ON WEAKENING THE WRIT OF THE STATE,
• AREA OF OPERATION
– MAINLY IN FATA
– EXTENDS INTO THE SETTLED AREAS AS WELL
• WORLDVIEW. RIGID, OBCURANTIST & MEDIEVAL
• CONTRASTING AIMS & AMBITIONS
– THEIR MISSION IS NOT GLOBAL AND ALTHOUGH THEY SPEAK ABOUT THE
REVIVAL OF THE CALIPHATE THERE IS NO REAL MOTIVATION TO
INTERNATIONALISE THEIR BRAND OF JIHAD
– THEY MERELY WANT AUTONOMY WITHIN THEIR OWN THEIR OWN FIEFDOMS,
WHERE THEY CAN ENFORCE THEIR OWN VERSION OF THE RELIGION
– SOME IMBUED BY RELIGIOUS ZEAL WANT TO EXPAND THEIR REVOLUTIONS
THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY IN ORDER TO REPLACE THE EXISTING FORM OF
DEMOCRACY BY ONE SUITING THEIR OWN IDEOLOGY
• NUMBER OF RANK & FILE. 35,000 TO 65000

6. Dawn report, APRIL 6, 2014
TTP WEBSITE

7. WHAT IS THEIR GENESIS?
• LOOSE GROUPING OF TALIBAN IN FATA
FORMED AN INFORMAL ALLIANCE IN 2007
• USE THE AFGHAN TALIBAN MODEL AS
INSPIRATION
• HAVE A NOTIONAL EMIR
– BAITULLAH MEHSUD (KILLED IN DRONE STRIKE)
– HAKEEMULLAH MEHSUD (KILLED IN DRONE
STRIKE)
– MULLAH FAZLUULLAH (SWAT – CURRENTLY
HIDING IN KUNAR IN AFGHANISTAN)

8. WHO ARE THEIR LEADERS?
FAZLULLAH
HIKMATULLAH
BAITULLAH

11. WHAT IS THEIR OUTLOOK/POLICIES?
• POLICY OF BLUFF & BLUSTER WITH THE
GOVERNMENT
• STRATEGY OF FEAR WITH THE COMMON MAN
• ROUGH & READY JUSTICE
• TACTICS OF REPRISAL AGAINST SOFT TARGETS IN
SETTLED AREAS
• ANACHRONISTIC IDEAS SUCH AS
– ANTI MINORITIES
– ANTI EDUCATION/ ANTI GIRL’S EDUCATION
– ANTI WOMEN
– ANTI MODERNISM

12. POSTURING WITH THE GOVERNMENT

14. May 4, 2013

15. Letter received by Beacon House school of Karachi
Feb 03, 2015
ANTI EDUCATION

16. 15 May, 2010
ANTI GIRLS EDUCATION

17. February 4, 2015
ANTI MINORITY

18. ROUGH & READY JUSTICE

20. WHO ARE THEIR ALLIES?
• HAQQANI NETWORK
• HIZBE ISLAMI GULBADIN
• LASHKAR E JHANGVI
• SIPAH E SAHABA
• ISLAMIC MOVEMENT OF UZBEKISTAN
• EASTERN TURKESTAN MOVEMENT
• TEHREEK E NIFAAZ E SHARIAT E MOHAMMADI
• TTA

21. WHY DID THE NEGOTIATIONS WITH
THE TALIBAN FAIL?
• THE TALIBAN LAID OUT UNREASONABLE PRE-
CONDITIONS LIKE
– RELEASE OF PRISONERS
– WITHDRAWAL OF STATE FORCES
• THE ATTACK ON JINNAH INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT IN KARACHI IN JUNE 2014 PROVED
TO BE THE LAST STRAW

24. WHAT HAS THE MILITARY ACHIEVED
SO FAR?
• RAH-I-NIJAT – CLEARING OF SWAT VALLEY IN
2009
• RAH-I-RAST – CLEARING OF SWA IN 2009
• OPERATION ZARB E AZB – BEGAN IN 2014 TO
CLEAR NWA AND BEYOND

32. DG ISPR TWEETS
DECEMBER 12, 2015
• UPDATE OPERATION ZARBE-E-AZB: ONE AND HALF YEAR AFTER START OF OPERATION ZARB-E-AZB,
PHENOMENAL SUCCESSES ACHIEVED. LAST POCKETS CLOSE TO PAK – AFGHAN BORDER BEING
CLEARED.
• TERRORIST'S BACKBONE BROKEN. MAIN INFRASTRUCTURE DISMANTLED. NEXUS WITH SLEEPER
CELLS LARGELY DISRUPTED. INTELLIGENCE BASED OPERATIONS (IBOs) CONTINUE TO BURST
REMAINING SLEEPER CELLS.
• 3400 TERRORISTS KILLED, 837 HIDEOUTS FROM WHERE THEY WERE CARRYING OUT THEIR
TERRORISTS ACTIVITIES DESTROYED.
• DURING LAST 18 MONTH OVER 13200 IBOs CARRIED OUT ACROSS THE COUNTRY IN WHICH 183
HARDCORE TERRORISTS KILLED, 21,193 ARRESTED. IBOs CONTINUE.
• SUCCESS CAME AT A HEAVY PRICE, 488 VALIANT OFFICERS AND MEN OF PAKISTAN ARMY, FRONTIER
CORPS KPK, BALUCHISTAN, RANGERS SIND SACRIFICED THEIR LIVES AND 1914 INJURED IN
OPERATION ZARB-E-AZB.
• TOTAL 11 MILITARY COURTS. 142 CASES REFERRED TO MILITARY COURTS. 55 CASES DECIDED, 87
CASES IN PROCESS. 31 HARDCORE TERRORISTS CONVICTED.
• SUPPORT OF ENTIRE NATION FOR ITS VALIANT ARMED FORCES AND RESOLVE EXPRESSED VS
TERRORISM POST 16 DECEMBER ARMY PUBLIC SCHOOL, PESHAWAR ATTACK BEEN BEDROCK OF
OPERATION ZARB-E-AZB.
• OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN SECURITY / LAW AND ORDER OWED TO OPERATION ZARB-E-AZB.
FESTIVITIES, NATIONAL EVENTS CELEBRATED, STABILITY BEING ACHIEVED.
• A GLIMPSE OF SOME OF WEAPONS, AMMUNITION, EXPLOSIVE AND COMMUNICATION
EQUIPMENT RECOVERED DURING OPERATION ZARB-E-AZB IS ATTACHED.

34. INTERNAL DISPLACEMENT

35. ARMS CACHE RECOVERED

36. LANDMINES SEIZED

37. COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT

38. SUICIDE VESTS

40. THE POSITIVES
• TTP COMMAND AND CONTROL STRUCTURES AND
OTHER TERRORIST NETWORKS HAVE BEEN DESTROYED
• THEIR RANKS AND FILES ARE IN DISARRAY
• THEY ARE ON THE RUN & MANY HAVE ESCAPED TO
AFGHANISTAN
• 90% AREA OF FATA HAS BEEN PURGED OF THE
TERRORISTS
• NUMBER OF TERRORIST ATTACKS HAS DECREASED
• WRIT OF THE GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN RESTORED BUT
THE CHALLENGE IS TO HOLD ON TO THESE AREAS

41. THE DOWNSIDE
• LOSS OF SURPRISE: THE OPERATION WAS LAUNCHED AFTER A MONTH LONG
OPEN DEBATE WHICH WAS KEENLY COVERED BY THE MEDIA. THE VITAL ELEMENT
OF SURPRISE WAS LOST WHICH ENABLED THE TERRORISTS TO TAKE PREEMPTIVE
MEASURES. THE TOP LEADERSHIP OF TTP FLED TO SAFE HAVENS ACROSS THE
BORDER INSIDE AFGHANISTAN IN NOORISTAN AND KUNAR PROVINCES.
REPLICATING THE STRATEGY OF AFGHAN TALIBAN MOST OF THEM MELTED AWAY
UNDER INITIAL MILITARY ONSLAUGHT BUT HAVE MANAGED TO FIGHT BACK AFTER
SOMETIME.
• NO TIMELINE: THERE IS NO CLEAR CUT TIMELINE FOR ENDING OPERATIONS.
THERE ARE ALSO NO ESTIMATES OF HOW LONG THE TALIBAN CAN CONTINUE
ARMED RESISTANCE. AS LONG AS THEY ARE ALIVE THEY CAN CAUSE MISCHIEF IN
SETTLED AREAS.
• AFGHAN FAILURE TO STOP THE TTP: THE AFGHAN GOVERNMENT HAS NEITHER
BEEN ABLE TO EVICT THE TALIBAN FROM THE SAFE HAVENS IN THEIR TERRITORY
NOR STOP ATTACKS BEING LAUNCHED FROM THEIR SIDE ON PAKISTANI TERRITORY.
• IDPs: ALMOST ONE MILLION IDPs/TDPs ARE STILL LANGUISHING IN CAMPS OR
HAVE TAKEN SHELTER AT DIFFERENT PLACES. THEY ARE FACING ENDLESS MISERIES
AND ARE AT MERCY OF VAGARIES OF EXTREME WEATHERS AND INHOSPITABLE
CONDITIONS. SOCIAL FIBER OF NORTH WAZIRISTAN AND FATA IS SEVERELY
SHATTERED. HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE TO COME BACK TO NORMALCY? OR WILL IT
EVER?

42. IS OP ZARB E AZB A SUCCESS?
• IT HAS ACHIEVED SHORT TERM OBJECTIVES.
• ULTIMATE SUCCESS IN COUNTER INSURGENCY
TAKES A LONG TIME.
• IT IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO TOTALLY ELIMINATE
INSURGENT ACTIVITY.
• IT WOULD BE CONSIDERED A SUCCESS IF TTP
AND ITS LEADERS ARE CO-OPTED,
MARGINALIZED, OR SEPARATED FROM THE
POPULATION.
• ANOTHER YARDSTICK OF SUCCESS WOULD BE
THE DISARMAMENT, DEMOBILIZATION AND
REINTEGRATION OF THE TALIBAN IN THE SOCIETY.

43. WAY FORWARD
• OPERATION ZARB E AZB IS PRIMARILY A COUNTER
INSURGENCY (COIN) CAMPAIGN. IT IS A FIGHT AGAINST
ASYMMETRICAL WARFARE, WHICH THE MILITANTS
FIGHT UNDER AN IDEOLOGY, AND MOTIVE TO BRING
SO CALLED POLITICAL AND SOCIAL CHANGE.
• ESTABLISHING SECURITY MUST BE SUPLEMENTED BY
ECONOMIC AND GOVERNANCE ACTIVITY
• CIVILIAN ADMINISTRATIVE STRUCTURES MUST BE
REVIVED AND THE BURDEN OF GOVERNANCE BE
SHIFTED TO THEM IN AN ORDERLY MANNER.
• FATA MUST BE EITHER MADE SELF GOVERNING OR
MERGED WITH KP THROUGH DUE PARLIAMENTARY
PROCESS