The document discusses growing asymmetry between India and Pakistan in South Asia and its implications for Pakistan's national security. It notes that while asymmetry is increasing in areas like military capabilities and economic strength, this is not significantly altering the regional security balance. However, Pakistan remains vulnerable to internal and external threats. To deal with emerging challenges, Pakistan needs a comprehensive security approach, including developing a credible offensive posture and employing models like the hedgehog defense and Tirpitz risk theory.

1. GROWING ASYMMETRY IN SOUTH
ASIA & ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR
NATIONAL SECURITY OF PAKISTAN
DR TUGHRAL YAMIN
ASSOCIATE DEAN CIPS, NUST

2. MY THESIS
THE ASYMMETRY IN SOUTH ASIA IS
GROWING AT AN ALARMING RATE IN A NUMBER OF
WAYS BUT IT IS NOT GOING TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ALTER THE SECURITY BALANCE IN THE REGION.
PAKISTAN WILL REMAIN VULNERABLE TO
SIGNIFICANT INTERNAL & EXTERNAL THREATS IN
THE FORSSEABLE FUTURE.
IN ORDER TO DEAL WITH THE EMERGING
CHALLENGES IT NEEDS TO PREPARE A WHOLESOME
SECURITY APPROACH.

3. WHAT DOES GROWING ASYMMETRY
IN SOUTH ASIA MEANS?
• SOUTH ASIA = PAKISTAN & INDIA
• GROWING ASYMMETRY = INCREASING
DIFFERENCE IN THE POWER POTENTIAL OF
TWO OR MORE RIVAL COUNTRIES
• GROWING ASYMMETRY IN SOUTH ASIA =
INCREASING DIFFERENCE IN THE POWER
POTENTIAL OF INDIA & PAKISTAN,
PARTICULARLY IN THE MILITARY FIELD (BOTH
IN THE CONVENTIONAL & NUCLEAR FORCES)

4. ASYMMETRIES IN SOUTH ASIA
FIXED
• AREA: PAK (770,875 SQ KM)
VS INDIA (2,973,193 SQ KM)
• COASTLINE: PAKISTAN (7,000
KM) VS INDIA (1,046 KM)
• POPULATION: PAK
(196,174,380) VS INDIA
(1,236,344,631)
• WATER RESOURCES: EXCEPT
FOR RIVER KABUL, INDIA
CONTROLS ALL WATERS
FLOWING INTO PAKISTAN
CHANGING
• CONVENTIONAL FORCES
• NUCLEAR FORCES
• LEADERSHIP
• DIPLOMACY
• ECONOMY
• TECHNOLOGY
• LEVELS OF POVERTY
• STATE OF ENERGY

5. N
A
T
I
O
N
A
L
S
E
C
U
R
I
T
Y
PHYSICAL SECURITY/SOVEREIGNTY
INTERNAL SECURITY/LAW & ORDER SITUATION
ENERGY SECURITY
ECONOMIC SECURITY
WATER SECURITY
GOOD NEIGHBOURLY RELATIONS
CONFIDENCE OF THE CITIZEN THAT THE STATE WILL PROTECT
AND DEFEND IT AGAINST ANY EXTERNAL OR INTERNAL THREAT
AND ENSURE ITS FUNDAMENTAL RIGHTS

6. INDIA VS PAKISTAN MILITARY STRENGTH
INDIA PAKISTAN
GLOBAL FIREPOWER (GFP)
RANK
4 OUT OF 126 13 OUT OF 126
TOTAL POPULATION 1,251,695,584 199,085,847
MANPOWER AVAILABLE 616,000,000 95,000,000
FIT FOR SERVICE 489,600,000 75,325,000
REACHING MILITARY AGE
ANNUALY
22,900,000 4,354,000
ACTIVE MILITARY PERSONAL 1,325,000 620,000
ACTIVE MILITARY RESERVES 2,143,000 515,000
AIRCRAFT (ALL TYPES) 2,086 923
HELICOPTERS 646 306
ATTACK HELICOPTERS 19 52
ATTACK AIRCRAFT (FIXED WINGS) 809 394

7. INDIA PAKISTAN
FIGHTER AIRCRAFT 679 304
TRAINER AIRCRAFT 318 170
TRANSPORT AIRCRAFT 857 261
SERVICABLE AIRPORTS 346 151
TANKs 6464 2924
AFVs 6704 2828
SPGs 290 465
TOWED ARTILLERY 7414 3278
MLRS 292 134
MERCHANT MARINE
STRENGTH
340 11
MAJOR PORTS/TERMINALS 7 2
FLEET STRENGTH 295 197
AIRCRAFT CARRIERS 2 0
SUBMARINES 14 5

8. INDIA PAKISTAN
FRIGATES 14 10
DESTROYERS 10 0
CORVETTES 26 0
MINE WARFARE CRAFT 6 3
PATROL CRAFT 135 12
EXTERNAL DEBT (USD) 459,100,000,000 58,100,000,000
ANNUAL DEFENCE
BUDGET
40,000,000,000 7,000,000,000
FE RESERVE (USD) 370,700,000,000 17,300,000,000
PURCHASING POWER
PARITY
7,411,000,000,000 884,200,000,000
LABOR FORCE 492,400,000 61,550,000
OIL PRODUCTION BPD 767,600 BBL 93,630 BBL
OIL CONSUMPTION BPD 3,510,000 BBL 440,000 BBL
PROVEN OIL RESERVES BPD 5,675,000,000 BBL 371,000,000 BBL
ROAD WAY COVERAGE
(KM)
63,974 KM 7,791 KM

9. INDIA PAKISTAN
RAILWAY COVERAGE (KM) 63,974 KM 7,791 KM
WATERWAY COVERAGE
(KM)
14,500 KM 25,220 KM
COASTLINE COVERAGE
(KM)
7000 KM 1046 KM
SHARED BORDERS (KM) 13,888 KM 7,257 KM
SQUARE LAND AREA (KM) 3,287,263 KM 796,095 KM

10. WHAT ARE THE GROWING
ASYMMETRIES IN SOUTH ASIA?
INDIA PAKISTAN
CONVENTIONAL FORCES
NUCLEAR FORCES
DEFENCE BUDGET/SPENDINGS
INTERNATIONAL ACCEPTABILITY
ECONOMY
QUALITY OF LEADERSHIP
STABILITY OF THE GOVERNMENT

11. HOW DOES PAKISTAN PERCEIVES THE
GROWING ASYMMETRIES?
• INDIA’S GROWING DEFENCE BUDGET & ITS
INTERNATIONAL ARMS ACQUISITION DRIVE
• INDIA’S ACCEPTANCE AS A RESPONSIBLE
NUCLEAR STATE (CIVIL NUCLEAR DEALS, NSG
WAIVER, US SUPPORT FOR ENTRY INTO NSG)
• ADVENT OF THE NUCLEAR POWERED &
NUCLEAR MISSILE EQUIPPED SUBMARINE
• DEVELOPMENT OF THE BMDS
• INDIA’S BID TO ENCIRCLE PAKISTAN THROUGH
AFGHANISTAN & IRAN

15. SOURCE: INDIAN AEROSPACE DEFENCE NEWS JANUARY 2 2016

16. Source: INDIAN DEFENCE NEWS MARCH 2016

18. WHAT ARE THE OPTIONS FOR PAKISTAN?
• LET THINGS AS THEY ARE & ACCEPT INDIA’S
HEGEMONY
• INDULGE IN A DEBILITATING ARMS RACE
(CONVENTIONAL AS WELL AS NUCLEAR) TO
MAINTAIN A MODICUM OF STRATEGIC BALANCE
• GET AN EDGE BY IMPROVING THE ECONOMY,
DEFEATING TERRORISM, ERADICATING POVERTY
& SEEKING SMART MILITARY SOLUTIONS

19. WHAT CAN BE THE SMART MILITARY
SOLUTIONS?
• COVER THE CONVENTIONAL GAP THROUGH
TRAINING & INDIGENOUS DEFENCE
PRODUCTION
• INVEST IN ISR
• IMPROVE NETCENTRIC CAPABILITIES
• BUILD A SMALL BUT EFFECTIVE NAVY
• DEVELOP AN ASSURED SECOND STRIKE
CAPABILITY

20. CREDIBLE OFFENSIVE POSTURE

21. HEDGEHOG DEFENCE MODEL
• A DEFENCE THAT ALL SPECIES OF
HEDGEHOGS POSSESS IS THE
ABILITY TO ROLL INTO A TIGHT
BALL, CAUSING ALL OF THE
SPINES TO POINT OUTWARDS.
• SINCE THE EFFECTIVENESS OF
THIS STRATEGY DEPENDS ON THE
NUMBER OF SPINES, SOME
DESERT HEDGEHOGS THAT
EVOLVED TO CARRY LESS WEIGHT
ARE MORE LIKELY TO FLEE OR
EVEN ATTACK, RAMMING AN
INTRUDER WITH THE SPINES;
ROLLING INTO A SPINY BALL IS
FOR THOSE SPECIES A LAST
RESORT.

22. TIRPITZ RISK THEORY MODEL
• GRAND ADMIRAL ALFRED VON TIRPITZ
DEVELOPED A RISK THEORY BEFORE WWI,
WHEREBY, IF THE GERMAN IMPERIAL
NAVY REACHED A CERTAIN LEVEL OF
STRENGTH RELATIVE TO THE
BRITISH ROYAL NAVY, THE BRITISH WOULD
TRY TO AVOID CONFRONTATION WITH
GERMANY I.E. MAINTAIN A FLEET IN
BEING.
• IF THE TWO NAVIES FOUGHT, THE
GERMAN NAVY WOULD INFLICT ENOUGH
DAMAGE ON THE BRITISH THAT THE
LATTER RAN A RISK OF LOSING THEIR
NAVAL DOMINANCE.
• BECAUSE THE BRITISH RELIED ON THEIR
NAVY TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER
THE BRITISH EMPIRE, TIRPITZ FELT THEY
WOULD OPT TO MAINTAIN NAVAL
SUPREMACY IN ORDER TO SAFEGUARD
THEIR EMPIRE, AND LET GERMANY
BECOME A WORLD POWER, RATHER THAN
LOSE THE EMPIRE AS THE COST OF
KEEPING GERMANY LESS POWERFUL.