The document summarizes a lecture on the transition in Afghanistan and its impact on Pakistan's security. It discusses the complex interdependence between Pakistan and Afghanistan due to their shared history, geography, culture and security issues. It outlines the political, security and foreign policy transitions taking place in Afghanistan, including the elections, formation of a unity government, and the security transition as international forces withdraw. It notes improvements in Pakistan-Afghanistan relations, including high-level visits, security cooperation, and agreements on trade and education. The future of relations depends on continued cooperation on security issues and the Taliban as well as growing economic, infrastructure and education ties between the two countries.

2. LECTURE DELIVERED BY
DR TUGHRAL YAMIN
IR DEPARTMENT NUML
4 MARCH 2015

3. THE TRANSITION IN
AFGHANISTAN
IMPACT ON PAKISTAN’S SECURITY

4. SCHEME OF PRESENTATION
• PAKISTAN-AFGHANISTAN COMPLEX
INTERDEPENDENCE
• TRANSITION IN AFGHANISTAN
• IMPROVEMENT IN PAK-AFGHAN
RELATIONSHIP
• THE FUTURE

5. THE THEORY OF COMPLEX
INTERDEPENDENCE
• ROBERT KEOHANE AND JOSEPH NYE, THE AUTHORS OF THE THEORY OF
COMPLEX INTERDEPENDENCE IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, PUT
FORTH THE IDEA THAT STATES AND THEIR FORTUNES ARE INEXTRICABLY
TIED TOGETHER
• THE THEORISTS RECOGNIZED THAT THE VARIOUS AND COMPLEX
TRANSNATIONAL CONNECTIONS AND INTERDEPENDENCIES BETWEEN
STATES AND SOCIETIES WERE INCREASING, WHILE THE USE OF MILITARY
FORCE AND POWER BALANCING ARE DECREASING BUT REMAIN
IMPORTANT
• COMPLEX INTERDEPENDENCE IS CHARACTERIZED BY THREE
CHARACTERISTICS, INVOLVING
– THE USE OF MULTIPLE CHANNELS OF ACTION BETWEEN SOCIETIES IN
INTERSTATE, TRANSGOVERNMENTAL, AND TRANSNATIONAL RELATIONS
– THE ABSENCE OF A HIERARCHY OF ISSUES WITH CHANGING AGENDAS AND
LINKAGES BETWEEN ISSUES PRIORITIZED AND THE OBJECTIVE OF
– BRINGING ABOUT A DECLINE IN THE USE OF MILITARY FORCE AND COERCIVE
POWER IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS.

6. PAKISTAN & AFGHANISTAN
ARE IN A STATE OF
COMPLEX INTERDEPENDENCE
• HISTORICAL LINKS
• GEOGRAPHICAL CO-LOCATION
• RELIGIOUS & CULTURAL SIMILARITIES
• FAMILIAL TIES
• TRADE & ECONOMIC TIES
• COMMON SECURITY CONCERNS

7. PAK AFGHAN HISTORICAL IRRITANTS
• AFGHAN OPPOSITION TO PAKISTAN ENTRY
INTO THE UN
• NON RECOGNTION OF THE DURAND LINE
• SUPPORT TO THE PAKHTOONISTAN CAUSE

8. PRIDE IN AFGHAN HERITAGE
PAKISTANI MISSILES NAMED AFTER AFGHAN KINGS

9. PAK AFGHAN GEOGRAPHICAL
JUXTAPOSITION

10. AFGHAN REFUGEES IN PAKISTAN

11. AFGHANS & FAKE IDs

12. TERRORIST SANCTUARIES IN
AFGHANISTAN
FAZLULLAH HIDING IN KUNAR

13. WHAT DOES TRANSITION IN
AFGHANISTAN MEANS?
• POLITICAL TRANSITION
– HOLDING OF ELECTIONS
– TRANSFER OF POWER TO THE NEWLY ELECTED
GOVERNMENT
– NEGOTIATIONS WITH TALIBAN
• SECURITY TRANSITION
– WITHDRAWL OF ISAF COMBAT FORCES
– HANDING OVER THE SECURITY OF THE COUNTRY TO
THE ANSF
• FOREIGN POLICY TRANSITION
– IMPROVING RELATIONS WITH PAKISTAN

14. ELECTIONS JUNE 2014

15. AFGHAN POWER SHARING DEAL &
INAUGURATION OF THE NEW
GOVERNMENT SEPTEMBER 2014

16. UNITY GOVERNMENT’S CABINET
• 12 JANUARY. PRESIDENT ASHRAF GHANI
UNVEILED HIS UNITY CABINET COMPRISING
25 MEMBERS MORE THAN THREE MONTHS
AFTER HE WAS SWORN IN.
• 2 FEBRUARY. EIGHT MINISTERS ALONG WITH
THE HEAD OF AFGHANISTAN’S INTELLIGENCE
AGENCY STARTED WORK. DEFENSE MINISTER
NOMINEE AND NINE OTHERS OF THE 19
CANDIDATES WERE REJECTED.

17. SECURITY TRANSITION – INTEQAL

18. US RESIDUAL FORCES IN
AFGHANISTAN
• 10000 TROOPS MOSTLY ADVISORS AND
TRAINERS
• APPROX 1100 SPECIAL OPERATIONS FORCES
• THOUSANDS OF PRIVATE CONTRACTORS
• US AUTHORITIES MULLING SLOWING DOWN
COMPLETE DRAWDOWN BY 2016

19. COST OF SUSTAING ANSF

20. CAPACITY OF ANSF
THE AFGHAN ARMY LOST MORE THAN 20,000 FIGHTERS AND
OTHERS LAST YEAR (2014) LARGELY BECAUSE OF DESERTIONS,
DISCHARGES AND DEATHS IN COMBAT, ACCORDING TO FIGURES TO BE
RELEASED TUESDAY, CASTING FURTHER DOUBT ON AFGHANISTAN’S
ABILITY TO MAINTAIN SECURITY WITHOUT HELP FROM UNITED
STATES-LED COALITION FORCES.
THE NEARLY 11 PERCENT DECLINE FROM JANUARY TO
NOVEMBER 2014, TO ROUGHLY 169,000 UNIFORMED AND CIVILIAN
MEMBERS FROM 190,000, IS NOW AN ISSUE OF DEEP CONCERN
AMONG SOME IN THE AMERICAN MILITARY. FOR EXAMPLE, THE
FORMER NO. 2 AMERICAN COMMANDER IN AFGHANISTAN, LT. GEN.
JOSEPH ANDERSON, CALLED THE RATE OF COMBAT DEATHS
UNSUSTAINABLE BEFORE HE DEPARTED AT THE END OF LAST YEAR.
NYT REPORT MARCH 3, 2015

21. SECURITY SITUATION IN
AFGHANISTAN
• INSIDER ATTACKS. LAST WEEK 3 CONTRACTORS
BELONGING TO A PRIVATE US SECURITY COMPANY HIRED
BY PENTAGON WERE KILLED BY A UNIFORMED AFGHAN
ARMY SOLDIER IN KABUL
• TALIBAN ATTACKS
– JANUARY 30. TALIBAN KILLED 3 CONTRACTORS INSIDE KABUL
AIRPORT
– FEBRUARY 16. FOUR TALIBAN SUICIDE BOMBERS IN AFGHAN
POLICE UNIFORMS STORMED A HEAVILY FORTIFIED PROVINCIAL
POLICE HEADQUARTERS IN LOGAR PROVINCE ON, KILLING AT
LEAST 20 OFFICERS AND WOUNDING EIGHT OTHERS, AS THEY
WERE FILING INTO THE DINING HALL FOR LUNCH
– FEBRUARY 25. A SUICIDE BOMBER DRIVING A CAR PACKED
WITH EXPLOSIVES RAMMED INTO A TURKISH EMBASSY VEHICLE
– MARCH 3. EXPLOSIVE LADEN CAR KILLED 8 POLICEMEN IN
HELMAND

22. IMPROVEMENT IN AFGHAN PAKISTAN
BILATERAL RELATIONS
• PRESIDENT GHANI
VISITED PAKISTAN ON
NOVEMBER 13, 2014
• THIS WAS THE SECOND
FOREIGN VISIT AFTER
CHINA
• SO FAR HE HAS NOT
VISITED INDIA

23. PAKISTAN OFFERS MILITARY
TRAINING TO AFGHAN FORCES
• ON NOV 7, 2014 GEN RAHEEL RENEWED MILITARY TRAINING OFFER TO AFGHAN
FORCES
• ON FEB 6, 2015, SIX AFGHAN CADETS ARRIVED IN PAKISTAN TO ATTEND AN 18
MONTHS COURSE AT PMA

24. IMPROVEMENT IN SECURITY
COLLABORATION

25. REASSURING STATEMENTS
• 20 FEBRUARY. CHAUDHRY NISAR STATED THAT RELATIONS
BETWEEN AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN HAVE NEVER BEEN
BETTER, WHILE MEETING JOHN KERRY IN WASHINGTON
• 21 FEBRUARY. PRESIDENT ASHRAF GHANI SALUTED
NEIGHBOURING PAKISTAN'S COOPERATION AS KABUL
SEEKS TO LAY THE GROUNDWORK FOR PEACE WITH
TALIBAN INSURGENTS, THE LATEST SIGN OF IMPROVING
TIES BETWEEN THE TWO NATIONS.
• 4 MARCH. PM NAWAZ SHARIF TOLD THE AFGHAN
AMBASSADOR TO PAKISTAN THAT RELATIONS WITH
AFGHANISTAN HAD UNDERGONE QUALITATIVE
TRANSFORMATION SINCE THE NEW GOVERNMENT TOOK
OVER LAST YEAR.

26. AFGHAN PAKISTAN TRANSIT TRADE
AGREEMENT
• JULY 2010. A MOU WAS SIGNED AFGHANISTAN FOR AFGHAN-PAK TRANSIT TRADE AGREEMENT
(APTTA). US SECRETARY OF STATE HILLARY CLINTON WAS IN ATTENDANCE. THE TWO STATES ALSO
SIGNED ANOTHER MOU FOR THE CONSTRUCTION OF RAIL TRACKS IN AFGHANISTAN TO CONNECT
WITH PAKISTAN RAILWAYS (PR), WHICH HAS BEEN IN THE MAKING SINCE AT LEAST 2005.
• OCTOBER 2010. THE LANDMARK APTTA AGREEMENT WAS SIGNED BY PAKISTANI COMMERCE
MINISTER MAKHDOOM AMIN FAHIM AND ANWAR-UL-HAQ AHADY, AFGHAN MINISTRY OF
COMMERCE. THE CEREMONY WAS ATTENDED BY RICHARD HOLBROOKE, US SPECIAL
REPRESENTATIVE FOR AFPAK, AND A NUMBER OF FOREIGN AMBASSADORS, AFGHAN
PARLIAMENTARIANS AND SENIOR OFFICIALS. THE APTTA ALLOWS AFGHAN TRUCKS TO DRIVE INSIDE
PAKISTAN TO THE WAGAH BORDER WITH INDIA, INCLUDING TO THE PORT CITIES OF KARACHI AND
GWADAR.
• NOVEMBER 2010. THE TWO STATES FORMED A JOINT CHAMBER OF COMMERCE TO EXPAND TRADE
RELATIONS AND SOLVE THE TRADERS’ PROBLEMS.
• JUNE 2011. APTTA CAME INTO EFFECT AS SEVERAL AFGHAN TRUCKS DELIVERED FRUITS FROM
AFGHANISTAN TO THE WAGAH BORDER WITH INDIA. US AND OTHER NATO STATES PLAN TO REVIVE
THE ANCIENT SILK ROAD. THIS IS TO HELP THE LOCAL ECONOMIES OF AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN
BY CONNECTING SOUTH ASIA WITH CENTRAL ASIA AND THE MIDDLE EAST. THE APTTA IS INTENDED
TO IMPROVE TRADE BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES.
• JULY 2012. AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN AGREED TO EXTEND APTTA TO TAJIKISTAN AS THE FIRST
STEP FOR THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A NORTH-SOUTH TRADE CORRIDOR. THE PROPOSED
AGREEMENT WILL PROVIDE FACILITIES TO TAJIKISTAN TO USE PAKISTAN’S GWADAR AND KARACHI
PORTS FOR ITS IMPORTS AND EXPORTS WHILE PAKISTAN WILL ENJOY TRADE WITH TAJIKISTAN
UNDER TERMS SIMILAR TO THE TRANSIT ARRANGEMENT WITH AFGHANISTAN. TRADE BETWEEN
PAKISTAN AND AFGHANISTAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH $5 BILLION BY 2015.

27. FUTURE OF PAK AFGHAN TIES
• SECURITY CONCERNS
– AFGHANS WANT PAKISTAN TO FACILITATE TALTS WITH
TALIBAN
– PAKISTAN WANTS AFGHANISTAN TO APPREHEND
FAZLULLAH
• ECONOMIC TIES. COMMON PARTNERS IN THE NEW
SILK ROUTE PROPOSED BY THE WEST AND THE
MARITIME SILK ROUTE SPONSORED BY CHINA
• INFRASTRUCTURE CONNECTIVITY. RAIL LINKS
• ENERGY. TAPI GAS PIPELINE
• EDUCATION LINKS
• SPORTING TIES

28. PAK AFGHAN EDUCATION LINKS
• SCHOLARSHIPS. PAKISTAN HAS BEEN OFFERING SCHOLARSHIPS TO
AFGHAN STUDENTS SINCE 2009. IN 2013 PAKISTAN OFFERED 600
SCHOLARSHIPS IN ITS INSTITUTIONS OF HIGHER EDUCATION.
• UET LAHORE. ON 23 JANUARY 2013 DELEGATION FROM DIFFERENT
AFGHAN UNIVERSITIES ALONG WITH HEC REPRESENTATIVES VISITED UET
LAHORE. VC EXTENDED COOPERATION IN THE FIELD OF RESEARCH,
PROJECTS & PUBLICATION.
• NUST. 31 JANUARY 2013 AFGHAN MOD DELEGATION VISITED THE
UNIVERSITY. RECTOR NUST OFFERED 20 FULLY FUNDED SCHOLARSHIPS IN
ANY DISCIPLINE.
• NUML
– SIZABLE POPULATION OF AFGHAN STUDENTS IN NUML
– AFGHAN STUDENTS SHOWCASED MARKETING SKILLS IN 8TH SALES
GALA IN 2013
– NAUROZ CELEBERATED IN MARCH 2014
• LUMS. ON 22 FEBRUARY 2015 AFGHAN AMBASSADOR TO PAKISTAN
SIGNED MOU WITH LUMS TO SEND AFGHAN STUDENTS TO STUDY IN
LAHORE

29. SPORTING TIES
AFGHAN BOWLER CELEBRATES AFTER
VICTORY OVER SCOTLAND
JUBILIANT AFGHAN CRICKET
FANS REJOICE IN THE STREETS OF
KANADHAR
PAKISTANI CRICKETER KABIR
KHAN – FIRST CRICKET
COACH OF THE AFGHAN
TEAM