The eighth edition of the Transport Market Monitor (TMM) by TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting reveals that transport prices increased by +7.8% in Q2 2011 compared to Q1 2011. This increase has led to the highest price index (103.9) since the beginning of the TMM in Q1 2008 and a faster rise than the diesel index, which only marked +5.8%. However, uncertainty in the economic climate within Europe and the US could cause differences in the seasonal pattern usually witnessed in the last two quarters of the year.

1. Transport Market Monitor
Transport prices increase to a 3-year high
year
Edition: 8 (August 2011)

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© Capgemini/TRANSPOREON 2011
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3. Transport prices increased faster than diesel costs
This is the eighth edition of the Transport Market Monitor. It outlines
developments in European road transport rates and contains the latest This report is the eighth
figures including the second quarter of 2011. edition of the Transport
Market Monitor. Each
• The price index increased by 7.8% in Q2 2011 (index 103.9), quarter, a new edition will
compared to the price index in Q1 2011 (index 96.4). outline the developments
during the past three months
• Compared to the index level of the previous year, Q2 2010 (index and reviews additional
100.9), the price index increased by 3.0%. themes in transportation.
• The diesel index increase was 5.8% in Q2 2011, compared to Q1
2011. This increase is lower than that of the overall transport
All indices in this report are
price.
based on the logistics
• Another factor with high impact on transport prices is the capacity platform TRANSPOREON,
index, which decreased by 34.4% in Q2 2011 (index 66.6), which handles a yearly
compared to Q1 2011 (index 101.6). transport volume (different
truck types, mainly FTL and
• The price increase in Q2 is a seasonal effect that we also LTL) of more than €2 billion,
monitored in previous years. It is caused by relatively higher covering all European
demand for transportation in Q2 compared to Q1. countries. Information is
• The development of the price and capacity index over the next anonymously unlocked from
the platform and analysed by
two quarters may be influenced by the development of the current
Capgemini Consulting.
economic situation in Europe and the USA. The TMM monitored
a decrease in the price index and an increase in the capacity index
in Q4 2008, after the start of the financial crisis in May 2008. It’s The figures in the Transport
Market Monitor date back to
difficult to predict what the outcome of this will be therefore we
January 2008: the earliest
will closely monitor the developments within the financial market point of measurement of the
over the next few months. index figures. For all indices,
• Both the market dynamics and the expected cost increase of the average figures of the 6
transportation emphasize the need to monitor transport price month period January 2008
developments very closely, to mitigate the risk of any unexpected till June 2008 have been set
as the basis for comparison
negative impact on company results.
(Index 100).
These are the conclusions of the Transport Market Monitor by TRANSPOREON and Capgemini
Consulting, a quarterly publication, which aims to track transport market dynamics.
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4. Prices increased to the highest level since the start of the
Transport Market Monitor
This section of the Transport Market Monitor outlines the quarterly
The price index is calculated
developments of the price and capacity index, based on a time span by comparing the average
from 2008 until the second quarter of 2011. price per kilometre over time.
The price index (see figure 1) increased by 7.8% in Q2 2011 (index
103.9), compared to the price index in Q1 2011 (index 96.4). Also The Capacity Index is an
compared to the index level of the previous year, Q2 2010 (index indicator for “available
100.9), the price index increased by 3.0%. capacity”, the ratio between
absolute demand and
The price increase between Q1 and Q2 of 2011 is a seasonal effect capacity. The capacity index
that we also monitored in previous years. It was caused by a is calculated by comparing
relatively higher demand for transportation in Q2 and the effect of the average number of bids in
response to a transport
various holidays like the Easter weekend, which compressed demand
request over time.
in shorter working weeks. Therefore, shipped volumes are higher due
to the seasonal effects typically experienced in various industries. Q1
is clearly low season, followed by higher volumes in the second quarter. The spring period also impacts
transport volumes in different industries such as construction. Higher demand for transportation
decreases the level of available capacity and has an upward effect on price.
Transport prices increased higher than the diesel price in Q2 2011: the diesel index increase was 5.8%
in Q2 2011. This clearly indicates the impact of the decrease in available capacity: the capacity index
decreased by 34.4% in Q2 2011 (index 66.6), compared to Q1 2011 (index 101.6).
Figure 1: Price and capacity index, quarterly (Q1 2008 – Q2 2011)
Price and capacity index (quarterly figures)
110 210
103,1 103,8 103,9
105 102,1 190
100,9 101,7
100
98,6 170
96,9 96,4
Capacity index
94,6 94,8
Price index
95 150
89,9 88,9
90 130
85
83,5 110
80 90
Price
75 70 index
Capacity
70 50
index
Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211
In 2009 and 2010 we monitored the trend that the price index increased during Q3 and Q4, but less
steep than in Q2. However, the first indications for the outlook of Q3 20111 is that both transport price
and diesel index is decreasing. This, in combination with the unknown developments in the European
and US economy, will be monitored closely in the next few months by the Transport Market Monitor.
1
Transport Market Radar
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5. Capacity index drop was similar to previous year
This section of the Transport Market Monitor depicts the monthly developments in the price and
capacity index over the last 12 months. Analysing Q2 2011 (see figure 2), April and June showed a
clear price increase, while May indicates a slight decrease. Following the reverse pattern, the capacity
index was at the lowest level in June 2011 (index 64.9).
During the last 12 months, the price index varied, outlining the dynamics in transport prices. The
highest price index in the history of this report was reached in June 2011 (index 106.1). The lowest
price index during the last 12 months was measured in February 2011 (index 94.6). The capacity index
was at the lowest point in June 2011 (index 64.9). This index has dropped significantly, by 41.5%, since
February 2011 (index 111.0).
Figure 2: Price and capacity index, monthly (Jul 2010 – Jun 2011)
Price and capacity index (month by month)
110 120
106,1
104,3 110
105 103,3 103,1
102,1 102,6 102,4
100,6
100
Capacity index
100 98,5
97,6
Price index
96,7
90
94,6
95
80
90
70
Price index
85
60
Capacity
index
80 50
Jul10 Aug10 Sep10 Oct10 Nov10 Dec10 Jan11 Feb11 Mar11 Apr11 May11 Jun11
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6. Figure 3 compares the monthly developments of the price index, over the last 12 months, with the same
period one year before. The price index has constantly been above the levels of the previous year: on
average prices were 6.3% higher compared to the year before. Since December 2010 the difference in
price index compared to the previous year, decreased until May 2011, in which the price index was
almost the same as the year before.
The price index developments over two consecutive years have been similar, showing a seasonal
pattern: generally the price index decreases from January to February, thereafter, increasing until
October, decreasing in November, but recovering again in December.
As already mentioned, the price index in May 2011 was almost at the same level as May 2010 (0.3
points difference). In June 2011, the price index increased to the highest level in the 3 year history of the
Transport Market Monitor (index 106.1), and increasing the difference again as compared to June 2010
as well (2.9 points). As mentioned before, initial developments in Q3 of 2011 show a downward trend
of the transport price index.
Figure 3: Price index comparison, monthly (Jul 2009 – Jun 2011)
Price index comparison
110
105
Jul '09 - Jun '10
100
(Price index
same period,
95 last year)
Price index
90
85 Jul '10 - Jun '11
(Price index last
12 months)
80
75
70
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
15
11,7
8,7 9,1 8,9
10 8,1
5,4 6,0 6,0
5,0
4,0 Difference
5 2,9
0,3
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
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7. Figure 4 compares the monthly developments of the capacity index, during the previous 12 months,
compared with the same period one year before. During the last four months, the capacity index closely
tracked the capacity index of one year before, except for May, where the difference between 2010 and
2011 was 13.1 points
The large differences in the capacity index we saw last year are no longer exist. Where we saw a
difference of 47 points between July 2009 and 2010, we are back to 1.2 index point difference between
June of this year as compared to June 2010. Overall, the capacity index was relatively low during the
last couple of months, which is common for the second quarter of the last years. For the first time since
July 2009, the capacity index in March 2011 exceeded the level of the year before. In June 2011 the
capacity index dropped again under the level of June 2010, with a difference of 1.2 index points.
Figure 4: Capacity index comparison, monthly (Jul 2009 –Jun 2011)
Capacity index comparison
140
130
120
Jul '09 - Jun '10
(Capacity index
110 same period,
Capacity index
last year)
100
90
Jul '10 - Jun '11
(Capacity index
80 last 12 months)
70
60
50
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
20 4 13,1
1
-
-1,2
-20 -11
-16 -17
-40 -22,8 -23 Difference
-35 -30
-60 -47
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
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8. Industry focus
General economic conditions apply to all industries, but trends may
The TRANSPOREON platform
differ and be stronger or weaker in individual industries. Analysis of handles transport for almost
the price index by the type of industry identifies these differences, all industries. For this edition
shown graphically in figure 5. of the Transport Market
Monitor, different industry
The development of the price index for construction materials are in types have been analysed
line with the development of the overall price index during Q2 2011 individually.
and with an index of 103.1 (7.1% increase since last quarter) shows
the highest price index in the history of this report within this Each chart in figure 5 depicts
industry. Timber showed the strongest increase, with 10.8% in Q2 the price development for that
2011 compared to Q1 (price index 109.0) and is almost back to the particular industry, indexed
level of Q4 2010, where the price index reached the highest level in against the industry baseline
(H1 2008)
three years (index 111.2). Paperboard / Print showed a smaller
increase compared to the other industries, but still increased by 5.2%
to a price index of 111.2.
Figure 5: Price index for different industries (Q1 2008 – Q2 2011)
Price index Construction materials
120
110
Price index
100
Construction
90 Materials
80
70
Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211
Price index Timber
120
110
Price index
100
90 Timber
80
70
Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211
Price index Paperboard / Print
120
110
Price index
100
90 Paperboard
/ Print
80
70
Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211
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9. Price differences between offers decreased
This section analyses outlines transport dynamics, by analysing the price difference between the highest
and the lowest price offered per transport request. Figure 6 outlines the price difference between offers,
and the development of the capacity index. If the capacity index decreases, the level of competition
decreases, clearly impacting the differences in price between offers by lowering them. This usually has
an upward effect on transport prices. In order to compensate for this effect, the shipper can look for
potential optimization options in e.g. load consolidation to increase fill rates.
Figure 6: Capacity index and price difference (Q1 2008 – Q2 2011)
Capacity index and price difference (quarterly)
210 40,0%
36,4%
190 35,0%
Difference between offers
170 30,0%
26,4%
Capacity index
150 23,2% 23,2% 25,0%
21,3% 21,5%
19,4%
130 17,2% 20,0%
16,6%
15,7% 15,7%
14,5%
110 13,2% 15,0%
11,2%
Price
90 10,0% difference
between
offers
70 5,0%
Capacity
index
50 0,0%
Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211
In line with the clear decrease in available capacity, price differences between the highest and the lowest
offered price decreased from a 19.4% difference in Q1 2011 to 11.2% in Q2 2011. This price difference
is an average figure. In general price differences increase with the greater the distance to be travelled
(see TMM, edition 1).
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10. Diesel index increases further towards the record levels of
2008
This section compares the price index with the diesel
index (see figure 7). In general there is a positive For the diesel index, the average figures of
the 6 month period January 2008 till June
correlation between the diesel index and the price
2008 have been set as the basis for
index, clearly indicating the impact of diesel prices on comparison (index 100), similar to the other
transportation costs and consequently prices. Also indices used in this report.
during the second quarter of 2011 this was the case. The
diesel price increased by 5.8% and the transport price The calculation of the diesel index is based
increased even further by 7.8% in Q2 2011, compared on diesel price figures in Germany, obtained
to Q1. The reason for the steep increase of the transport from www.aral.de. We assume that the index
pattern, based on the above figures, is
price is, besides the diesel costs, also dependant on the
representative for Europe for the purpose of
transport capacity development. The capacity index in this report.
Q2 2011 decreased by 34.4%, which has an effect on
the transport prices over and above the diesel index
influence.
With the exception of Q3 2010, diesel prices have been increasing since Q1 2009. In Q2 2011 the diesel
index increased by 5.8%, compared to Q1 2011, to index 104.7, reaching the highest level measured
since the start of the TMM (index 105.0 in Q3 2008).
Figure 7: Price index and diesel index (Q1 2008 – Q2 2011)
Price and diesel index (Quarterly)
110 110
104,7
105 104,3 105,0 105
100 99,0 100
95 95,7 95
93,5 93,7
Price index
Diesel index
90 91,2 90
89,1
85 86,1 85
84,3 84,3
80 80,3 80
76,0 Price index
75 75
70 70 Diesel index
Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211
20%
9,1%
5,7% 5,0% 5,6% 5,8%
10%
0,6% 2,1% 3,5% 4,9% 2,7% Change in
-2,4% diesel index
0%
-9,9% (%) vs.
-10% previous
-19,7% quarter
-20%
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11. Looking at the average yearly diesel prices (see figure 8), we have seen a decrease of the diesel index of
16.1% between 2008 and 2009, followed by an increase of 12.5% between 2009 and 2010. In Q2 2011
the diesel index is already 10.8% higher, compared to the yearly average of 2010.
Fuel cost is next to driver wages, one of the most important drivers for transport costs (which are not the
same as transport rates). On a European average, fuel costs are accountable for around 25% of the total
transport costs. This means that in general, if all other factors would remain unchanged, every 10%
increase of diesel price would cause around 2.5% increase of the overall transport rates.
Figure 8: Diesel index (Jan 2008 – Jun 2011)
Price and diesel index (yearly)
105 105
101,8
100 100
97,3
95 95
91,9
90 90
Price index
Diesel index
85 85
81,7
80 80
Price
75 75 index
Diesel
70 70 index
2008 2009 2010 2011 (ytd)
20% 12,5%
15%
11,1% 10,8%
10%
5% Change in
diesel index
0% (%) vs.
-5% previous year
-10% -16,1%
-15%
-20%
However, apart from cost drivers like diesel and labour costs, “available capacity” (being the ratio
between demand and supply of transport) is another major influencing factor on transport price
development. It is therefore complicated to identify the impact of increased cost levels on transport
prices. For example during Q1 2011, we monitored a decrease in transport prices, against a clear
increase of diesel costs. Both the market dynamics and the expected cost increase of transportation
emphasize the need to monitor transport price developments very closely, to prevent any unexpected
negative impact on company results.
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12. Next edition
This edition looked at the price and capacity developments since the beginning of the Transport Market
Monitor in 2008. It outlined the price increases in Q2 2011 compared to Q1 2011 and the same period
one year before. In addition, we took a closer look at diesel price developments. The next edition,
number 9, will include the figures for Q3 2011. It will be published in November 2011.
About the Transport Market Monitor
The aim of the Transport Market Monitor is to provide insights into the development of transport prices,
and other transport market dynamics to logistics executives and other interest groups. It is a joint
initiative of TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting.
The indices in the Monitor are based on the logistics platform TRANSPOREON, on which shippers
tender and process their transport needs to their preferred transport partners on a daily basis. The
platform handles a yearly transport volume of over €2 billion in all European countries. Anonymously,
information is unlocked from the platform and analysed by Capgemini Consulting. This results in
monthly indices which are published on a quarterly basis. In addition to each publication of the Monitor,
one or more market themes are discussed, supported by detailed analysis.
TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting can help you to find the right strategy between static and
dynamic prices. Additional information about both companies and their service offerings is available
upon request.
This report is available at www.transportmarketmonitor.com. More information about the products and
services of both TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting can be obtained via the contact
information provided at the back of this report.
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13. About Capgemini and TRANSPOREON
About Capgemini About TRANSPOREON
With 115,000 people in 40 countries, The logistics platform TRANSPOREON
Capgemini is one of the world’s foremost connects shippers from industry & trading
providers of consulting, technology and companies with carriers, drivers & consignees
outsourcing services. The Group reported 2010 – and optimizes and accelerates logistics
es
global revenues of EUR 8.7 billion Together processes. Users of our platform receive web
web-
with its clients, Capgemini creates and delivers based SaaS (Software
(Software-as-a-Service) solutions
business and technology solutions that fit their as electronic transport assignment, time slo slot
needs and drive the results they want. A deeply management and transport visibility.
multicultural organization, Capgemini has TRANSPOREON allows to reduce dispatch
developed its own way of working, the and freight costs, while minimi
minimizing waiting
Collaborative Business ExperienceTM, and times during loading and unloading.
®
draws on Rightshore , its worldwide delivery
model. Currently more than 400 shippers, more than
Learn more about us at www.capgemini.com 20,000 carriers and more than 54,000 users
,000
from 70 countries are connected via the
tries
TRANSPOREON platform. The platform as
well as the customer service are available in 16
Capgemini Consulting is the Global Strategy languages.
and Transformation Consulting brand of the
Capgemini Group, specializing in advising and Operating company of the logistics platform
supporting organizations in transforming their TRANSPOREON is the international
business, from the development of innovative TRANSPOREON Group. Other solutions the
strategy through to execution, with a consistent group is offering are the tender platform
ing
focus on sustainable results. Capgemini TICONTRACT and the retail logistics platform
Consulting proposes to leading companies and MERCAREON. Presently freight orders with a
governments a fresh approach w which uses volume of 6 billion EUR are organised via the
innovative methods, technology and the talents solutions of the TRANSPOREON Group. The
of over 3,600 consultants worldwide. company is on site in 1 locations throughout
16
Europe and the U.S.A.
More information at
www.capgeminiconsulting.nl
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14. Capgemini Consulting TRANSPOREON
For more information, contact: For more information, contact:
Benelux: Benelux:
Ramon Veldhuijzen Michel Haenen
Tel: +31 6 150 30 097 Tel: +31 6 123 95 308
E-mail: ramon.veldhuijzen@capgemini.com E-mail: haenen@transporeon.com
Germany/Switzerland: Germany/Switzerland and Nordic countries:
Hendrik Mueller Volkert Gasche
Tel: +49 151 4025 1707 Tel: +49 4101 8316761
E-mail: hendrik.mueller@capgemini.com E-mail: gasche@transporeon.com
UK: UK:
Steve Wilson Charlie Pesti
Tel: +44 870 366 0236 Tel: +44 (0) 785 094 11 70
E-mail: steve.wilson@capgemini.com E-mail: pesti@transporeon.com
Italy: Italy:
Roberto Brugnetti Roberto Ostili
Tel: +39 02 414931 Tel: +39 050 552168
E-mail: roberto.brugnetti@capgemini.com E-mail: ostili@transporeon.com
Austria: Austria:
Hendrik Mueller Armin Musija
Tel: +49 151 4025 1707 Tel: + 43 (0) 664 1966 542
E-mail: hendrik.mueller@capgemini.com E-mail: musija@transporeon.com
France: France:
Stéphane Ghioldi Jean Arnaud
Tel: +33 060 7714687 Tel: +33(0) 6 27 47 71 46
E-mail: arnaud@transporeon.com
E-mail: stephane.ghioldi@capgemini.com
Spain:
Nordic Countries: Miriam Ribas
Kristoffer Arvidsson Tel: + 34 977 6200 39
Tel: +46 70 5305849 E-mail: ribas@transporeon.com
E-mail: kirstoffer.arvidsson@capgemini.com
Poland: Poland:
Via: Ramon Veldhuijzen Michał Krzysik
Tel: +31 6 150 30 097 Tel: + 48 (0) 12 / 631 20 85
E-mail: ramon.veldhuijzen@capgemini.com E-mail: krzysik@transporeon.com
www.capgeminiconsulting.com www.transporeon.com
TMM-team:
Capgemini Consulting: Janine Roes (NL), Martijn Gommers (NL), Richard Conway (GB), Hendrik Mueller (DE),
Ramon Veldhuijzen (NL).
TRANSPOREON: Peter Förster (DE), Michel Haenen (NL), Sandy Buch (DE), Mathias Edel (DE).
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15. www.transportmarketmonitor.com
Capgemini Consulting is the strategy and transformation consulting brand of Capgemini Group