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Model                 Results                       Heuristics            Method




             Transaction Costs Made Tractable

                                Paolo Guasoni

   Stefan Gerhold   Johannes Muhle-Karbe                Walter Schachermayer

                    Boston University and Dublin City University


            Stochastic Analysis in Insurance and Finance
          University of Michigan at Ann Arbor, May 17th , 2011
Model                    Results                Heuristics      Method



                                   Outline



   • Motivation:
        Trading Bounds, Liquidity Premia, and Trading Volume.
   • Model:
        Constant investment opportunities and risk aversion.
   • Results:
        Explicit formulas. Asymptotics.
   • Method:
        Shadow Price and long-run optimality.
Model                  Results                 Heuristics           Method



                           Transaction Costs

   • Classical portfolio choice:
       1 Constant ratio of risky and safe assets.
       2 Sharpe ratio alone determines discount factor.
       3 Continuous rebalancing and infinite trading volume.
   • Transaction costs:
       1 Variation in risky/safe ratio.
         Tradeoff between higher tracking error and higher costs.
       2 Liquidity premium.
         Trading costs equivalent to lower expected return.
       3 Finite trading volume.
         Understand dependence on model parameters.
   • Tractability?
Model                     Results                 Heuristics               Method



                                    Literature
   • Magill and Constantinides (1976): the no-trade region.
   • Constantinides (1986):
        no-trade region large, but liquidity premium small.
   • Davis and Norman (1990):
        rigorous solution. Algorithm for trading boundaries.
   • Taksar, Klass, and Assaf (1998), Dumas and Luciano (1991):
        long-run control argument. Numerical solution.
   • Shreve and Soner (1994):
        Viscosity solution. Utility impact of ε transaction cost of order ε2/3
   • Janeˇ ek and Shreve (2004):
         c
        Trading boundaries of order ε1/3 . Asymptotic expansion.
   • Kallsen and Muhle-Karbe (2010),
        Gerhold, Muhle-Karbe and Schachermayer (2010):
        Logarithmic solution with shadow price. Asymptotics.
Model                   Results                 Heuristics            Method



                                  This Paper

   • Long-run portfolio choice. No consumption.
   • Constant relative risk aversion γ.
   • Explicit formulas for:
      1 Trading boundaries.
      2 Certainty equivalent rate (expected utility).
      3 Trading volume (relative turnover).
      4 Liquidity premium.
        In terms of gap parameter.
   • Expansion for gap yields asymptotics for all other quantities.
        Of any order.
   • Shadow price solution. Long-run verification theorem.
   • Shadow price also explicit.
Model                  Results                   Heuristics      Method



                                      Model

   • Safe rate r .
   • Ask (buying) price of risky asset:

                                 dSt
                                     = (r + µ)dt + σdWt
                                 St
   • Bid price (1 − ε)St . ε is the spread.
   • Investor with power utility U(x) = x 1−γ /(1 − γ).
   • Maximize certainty equivalent rate (Dumas and Luciano, 1991):
                                                           1
                                        1        1−γ      1−γ
                           max lim        log E XT
                             π     T →∞ T
Model                    Results                   Heuristics           Method



                Welfare, Liquidity Premium, Trading
Theorem
Trading the risky asset with transaction costs is equivalent to:
   • investing all wealth at hypothetical safe certainty equivalent rate

                                               µ2 − λ 2
                                   CeR = r +
                                                2γσ 2
   • trading a hypothetical asset, at no transaction costs, with same
        volatility σ, but expected return decreased by the liquidity premium

                                   LiP = µ −   µ2 − λ 2 .

   • Optimal to keep risky weight within buy and sell boundaries
        (evaluated at buy and sell prices respectively)

                                    µ−λ                µ+λ
                           π− =          ,     π+ =         ,
                                    γσ 2               γσ 2
Model                     Results                         Heuristics                         Method



                                          Gap
Theorem
   • λ identified as unique value for which solution of Cauchy problem

                                       2µ                              µ−λ       µ+λ
        w (x) + (1 − γ)w(x)2 +            − 1 w(x) − γ                                        =0
                                       σ2                              γσ 2      γσ 2
                 µ−λ
        w(0) =        ,
                 γσ 2

        satisfies the terminal value condition:
                                      µ+λ              u(λ)          1 (µ+λ)(µ−λ−γσ 2 )
            w(log(u(λ)/l(λ))) =       γσ 2
                                           ,   where   l(λ)     =   1−ε (µ−λ)(µ+λ−γσ 2 ) .

   • Asymptotic expansion:

                                                          1/3
                     λ = γσ 2        3   2
                                    4γ π∗ (1   − π ∗ )2         ε1/3 + O(ε).
Model                    Results                        Heuristics                                    Method



                               Trading Volume

Theorem
   • Share turnover (shares traded d||ϕ||t divided by shares held |ϕt |).


                  1     T d ϕ t        σ2   2µ                1−π−                     1−π+
        ShT = lim       0 |ϕt |    =        σ2
                                                 −1             2µ            −                 2µ        .
             T →∞ T                    2                           −1
                                                          (u/l) σ2 −1              (u/l)
                                                                                           1−
                                                                                                σ2   −1

   • Wealth turnover, (wealth traded divided by the wealth held):

                             1         T    (1−ε)St dϕ↓              T    St dϕ↑
              WeT = lim                                t
                                       0 ϕ0 St0 +ϕt (1−ε)St   +                t
                                                                     0 ϕ0 St0 +ϕt St
                        T →∞ T            t                             t


                        σ2    2µ             π− (1−π− )              π+ (1−π+ )
                    =   2     σ2
                                   −1             2µ
                                                     −1
                                                              −         1−
                                                                             2µ        .
                                            (u/l) σ2 −1           (u/l)      σ2   −1
Model                      Results                    Heuristics                      Method



                                     Asymptotics


                                            1/3
                          3 2
         π± = π∗ ±         π (1 − π∗ )2           ε1/3 + O(ε).
                         4γ ∗
                                                             2/3
                        µ2     γσ 2     3 2
        CeR = r +            −           π (1 − π∗ )2              ε2/3 + O(ε4/3 ).
                       2γσ 2    2      4γ ∗
                                           2/3
                µ         3 2
         LiP =             π (1 − π∗ )2          ε2/3 + O(ε4/3 ).
               2π∗2      4γ ∗
                                                          −1/3
                σ2                     3 2
        ShT =      (1 − π∗ )2 π∗        π (1 − π∗ )2               ε−1/3 + O(ε1/3 )
                2                     4γ ∗
                                           2/3
                γσ 2      3 2
        WeT =              π (1 − π∗ )2          ε−1/3 + O(ε).
                 3       4γ ∗
Model                     Results                   Heuristics                        Method



                                    Implications
   • λ/σ 2 depends on mean-variance ratio µ = µ/σ 2 . Only.
                                          ¯
   • Trading boundaries depend only on µ.
                                       ¯
   • Certainty equivalent, liquidity premium, volume per unit variance
        depend only on µ.
                       ¯
   • Interpretation: certainty equivalent, liquidity premium, volume
                                         t    2
        proportional to business time    0   σs ds. Trading strategy invariant.
   • All results extend to St such that:

                               dSt
                                   = (r + µσt )dt + σt dWt
                                          ¯
                               St
                                                                 1   T
        with σt independent of Wt and ergodic (limT →∞           T   0   σt2 dt = σ 2 ).
                                                                                  ¯
   • Same formulas hold,
        replacing µ/σ 2 with µ, and residual factor σ 2 with σ 2 .
                             ¯                               ¯
Model                 Results             Heuristics          Method



                Trading Boundaries v. Spread
0.75



0.70



0.65



0.60



0.55



0.50
   0.00        0.02             0.04    0.06           0.08    0.10
µ = 8%, σ = 16%, γ = 5. Zero discount rate for consumption.
Model                 Results           Heuristics          Method



                Liquidity Premium v. Spread
0.012


0.010


0.008


0.006


0.004


0.002



               0.01             0.02   0.03          0.04    0.05
µ = 8%, σ = 16%. γ = 5, 1, 0.5.
Model               Results             Heuristics       Method



            Liquidity Premium v. Risk Aversion
0.010



0.008



0.006



0.004



0.002



0.000
        0       2             4         6            8      10
µ = 8%, σ = 16%. ε = 0.01%, 0.1%, 1%, 10%.
Model               Results              Heuristics       Method



             Share Turnover v. Risk Aversion
0.5



0.4



0.3



0.2



0.1



0.0
      0       2               4         6             8      10
µ = 8%, σ = 16%, γ = 5. ε = 0.01%, 0.1%, 1%, 10%.
Model               Results              Heuristics       Method



             Wealth Turnover v. Risk Aversion
0.5



0.4



0.3



0.2



0.1



0.0
      0       2               4         6             8      10
µ = 8%, σ = 16%, γ = 5. ε = 0.01%, 0.1%, 1%, 10%.
Model                 Results                          Heuristics      Method



                 Welfare, Volume, and Spread
   • Liquidity premium and share turnover:

                                  LiP  3
                                      = ε + O(ε5/3 )
                                  ShT  4
   • Certainty equivalent rate and wealth turnover:

                                 µ2
                      (r +      γσ 2
                                     )   − CeR       3
                                                 =     ε + O(ε5/3 ).
                                 WeT                 4
   • Two relations, one meaning.
   • Welfare effect proportional to spread, holding volume constant.
   • For same welfare, spread and volume inversely proportional.
   • Relations independent of market and preference parameters.
   • 3/4 universal constant.
Model                   Results                 Heuristics                Method



                            Wealth Dynamics
   • Number of shares must have a.s. locally finite variation.
   • Otherwise infinite costs in finite time.
   • Strategy: predictable process (ϕ0 , ϕ) of finite variation.
   • ϕ0 units of safe asset. ϕt shares of risky asset at time t.
      t
   • ϕt = ϕ↑ − ϕ↓ . Shares bought ϕ↑ minus shares sold ϕ↓ .
            t    t                 t                    t
   • Self-financing condition:

                                  St              St
                        dϕ0 = −
                          t        0
                                     dϕ↑ + (1 − ε) 0 dϕ↓
                                                       t
                                  St              St

   • Xt0 = ϕ0 St0 , Xt = ϕt St safe and risky wealth, at ask price St .
            t

                 dXt0 =rXt0 dt − St dϕ↑ + (1 − ε)St dϕ↓ ,
                                      t               t
                 dXt =(µ + r )Xt dt + σXt dWt + St dϕ↑ − St dϕ↓
                                                     t
Model                     Results                  Heuristics               Method



                              Control Argument
   • V (t, x, y ) value function. Depends on time, and on asset positions.
   • By Itô’s formula:

                                                       1
        dV (t, Xt0 , Xt ) = Vt dt + Vx dXt0 + Vy dXt + Vyy d X , X t
                                                       2
                                                           σ2 2
                          = Vt + rXt0 Vx + (µ + r )Xt Vy +   X Vyy     dt
                                                           2 t
                      + St (Vy − Vx )dϕ↑ + St ((1 − ε)Vx − Vy )dϕ↓ + σXt dWt
                                       t                         t

   • V (t, Xt0 , Xt ) supermartingale for any ϕ.
   • ϕ↑ , ϕ↓ increasing, hence Vy − Vx ≤ 0 and (1 − ε)Vx − Vy ≤ 0

                                         Vx    1
                                    1≤      ≤
                                         Vy   1−ε
Model                    Results                     Heuristics              Method



                              No Trade Region
              V     1
   • When 1 ≤ Vx ≤ 1−ε does not bind, drift is zero:
               y


                                          σ2 2                Vx    1
         Vt + rXt0 Vx + (µ + r )Xt Vy +     Xt Vyy = 0 if 1 <    <     .
                                          2                   Vy   1−ε

   • This is the no-trade region.
   • Ansatz: value function homogeneous in wealth.
        Grows exponentially with the horizon.

                   V (t, Xt0 , Xt ) = (Xt0 )1−γ v (Xt /Xt0 )e−(1−γ)(β+r )t

   • Set z = y /x. For 1 + z < (1−γ)v (z) < 1−ε + z, HJB equation is
                                 v (z)
                                             1

                     σ2 2
                       z v (z) + µzv (z) − (1 − γ)βv (z) = 0
                     2
   • Linear second order ODE. But β unknown.
Model                 Results                Heuristics                   Method



                            Smooth Pasting
   • Suppose 1 + z < (1−γ)v (z) < 1−ε + z same as l ≤ z ≤ u.
                         v (z)
                                    1

   • For l < u to be found. Free boundary problem:

          σ2 2
            z v (z) + µzv (z) − (1 − γ)βv (z) = 0         if l < z < u,
          2
                    (1 + l)v (l) − (1 − γ)v (l) = 0,
            (1/(1 − ε) + u)v (u) − (1 − γ)v (u) = 0.

   • Conditions not enough to find solution. Matched for any l, u.
   • Smooth pasting conditions.
   • Differentiate boundary conditions with respect to l and u:

                                (1 + l)v (l) + γv (l) = 0,
                     (1/(1 − ε) + u)v (u) + γv (u) = 0.
Model                  Results                 Heuristics   Method



                         Solution Procedure




   • Unknown: trading boundaries l, u and rate β.
   • Strategy: find l, u in terms of β.
   • Free bounday problem becomes fixed boundary problem.
   • Find unique β that solves this problem.
Model                  Results                        Heuristics      Method



                         Trading Boundaries

   • Plug smooth-pasting into boundary, and result into ODE. Obtain:
                2          l     2            l
            − σ (1 − γ)γ (1+l)2 v + µ(1 − γ) 1+l v − (1 − γ)βv = 0.
              2

   • Setting π− = l/(1 + l), and factoring out (1 − γ)v :

                                     γσ 2 2
                                 −       π + µπ− − β = 0.
                                      2 −
   • π− risky weight on buy boundary, using ask price.
   • Same argument for u. Other solution to quadratic equation is:

                                               u(1−ε)
                                       π+ =   1+u(1−ε) ,

   • π+ risky weight on sell boundary, using bid price.
Model                     Results                 Heuristics          Method



                                       Gap
   • Optimal policy: buy when “ask" weight falls below π− , sell when
        “bid" weight rises above π+ . Do nothing in between.
   • π− and π+ solve same quadratic equation. Related to β via

                                      µ       µ2 − 2βγσ 2
                              π± =        ±               .
                                     γσ 2        γσ 2

   • Set β = (µ2 − λ2 )/2γσ 2 . β = µ2 /2γσ 2 without transaction costs.
   • Investor indifferent between trading with transaction costs asset
        with volatility σ and excess return µ, and...
   • ...trading hypothetical frictionless asset, with excess return
          µ2 − λ2 and same volatility σ.
   • µ−       µ2 − λ2 is liquidity premium.
   • With this notation, buy and sell boundaries are π± = µ±λ .
                                                          γσ 2
Model                   Results               Heuristics              Method



                  Symmetric Trading Boundaries




   • Trading boundaries symmetric around frictionless weight µ/γσ 2 .
   • Each boundary corresponds to classical solution, in which
        expected return is increased or decreased by the gap λ.
   • With l(λ), u(λ) identified by π± in terms of λ, it remains to find λ.
   • This is where the trouble is.
Model                         Results                                Heuristics                          Method



                                   First Order ODE
   • Use substitution:
                                        log(z/l(λ))
                                                      w(y )dy ,                     l(λ)ey v (l(λ)ey )
                v (z) = e(1−γ)                                    i.e. w(y ) =       (1−γ)v (l(λ)ey )

   • Then linear decond order ODE becomes first order Riccati ODE

                                                2µ                                µ−λ     µ+λ
        w (x) + (1 − γ)w(x)2 +                  σ2
                                                      − 1 w(x) − γ                γσ 2    γσ 2
                                                                                                  =0
                                                                                          µ−λ
                                                                                          w(0) =
                                                                                          γσ 2
                                                                                          µ+λ
                                                                      w(log(u(λ)/l(λ))) =
                                                                                          γσ 2
                u(λ)        1 π+ (1−π− )               1 (µ+λ)(µ−λ−γσ 2 )
        where   l(λ)   =   1−ε π− (1−π+ )       =     1−ε (µ−λ)(µ+λ−γσ 2 ) .
   • For each λ, initial value problem has solution w(λ, ·).
   • λ identified by second boundary w(λ, log(u(λ)/l(λ))) = µ+λ .
                                                           γσ 2
Model                    Results                 Heuristics             Method



                               Shadow Market



   • Find shadow price to make argument rigorous.
                        ˜
   • Hypothetical price S of frictionless risky asset, such that trading in
        ˜
        S withut transaction costs is equivalent to trading in S with
        transaction costs. For optimal policy.
   • For all other policies, shadow market is better.
   • Use frictionless theory to show that candidate optimal policy is
        optimal in shadow market.
   • Then it is optimal also in transaction costs market.
Model                    Results                   Heuristics             Method



                           Shadow Price Form
   • Look for a shadow price of the form

                                     ˜    St
                                     St = Y g(eYt )
                                         e t
        eYt = (Xt /Xt0 )/l ratio between risky and safe positions at mid-price
        S, and centered at the buying boundary

                                     π−         (µ − λ)
                            l=            =    2 − (µ − λ)
                                                           .
                                   1 − π−   γσ

   • Idea: risky/safe ratio is the state variable of the shadow market.
   • Shadow price has stochastic investment opportunities.
   • Numbers of units ϕ0 and ϕ remain constant inside no-trade region.
   • Y = log(ϕ/lϕ0 ) + log(S/S 0 ) follows Brownian motion with drift.
Model                    Results               Heuristics                Method



               Shadow Price at Trading Boundaries

   • Y must remain in [0, log(u/l)], so Y reflected at boundaries:

                     dYt = (µ − σ 2 /2)dt + σdWt + dLt − dUt ,

        for L, U that only increase when {Yt = 0} and {Yt = log(u/l)}.
   • g : [1, u/l] → [1, (1 − ε)u/l] satisfies conditions

                    g(1) =1                 g(u/l) =(1 − ε)u/l
                   g (1) =1                 g (u/l) =1 − ε.

                          ˜
   • Boundary conditions: S equals bid and the ask at boundaries.
                                  ˜
   • Smooth-pasting: diffusion of S/S zero at boundaries.
Model                    Results                  Heuristics                 Method



                                   Shadow Price
                                                  ˜
   • Itô’s formula and conditions on g imply that S satisfies:

                         ˜ ˜
                       d St /St = (˜(Yt ) + r )dt + σ (Yt )dWt ,
                                   µ                ˜

        where
                                    2
                   µg (ey )ey + σ g (ey )e2y
                                2                                  σg (ey )ey
           µ(y ) =
           ˜                                 ,    and σ (y ) =
                                                      ˜                       .
                             g(ey )                                  g(ey )

                                                ˜
   • Local time terms vanish in the dynamics of S.
   • How to find function g?
   • First derive the HJB equation for generic g.
   • Then, compare HJB equation to that for transaction cost problem.
   • Value function must be the same.
        Matching the two HJB equations identifies the function g.
Model                      Results                   Heuristics              Method



                          Shadow HJB Equation
   • Shadow wealth process of policy π is:
                                     ˜
                       ˜      ˜       ˜ ˜      ˜       ˜˜        ˜
                     d Xt = r Xt dt + πt µ(Yt )Xt dt + πt σ (Yt )Xt dWt .
             ˜    ˜ ˜                                         ˜
   • Setting Vt = V (t, Xt , Yt ), Itô’s formula yields for d Vt :

         ˜      ˜ ˜                  ˜2                 2      2
                        ˜˜ ˜ ˜        2 ˜
                                          ˜ ˜
                                                       2
                                                          ˜
                                                              2
                                                                 ˜    σ˜ ˜ ˜
        (Vt + r Xt Vx + µπt Xt Vx + σ πt2 Xt2 Vxx +(µ−σ )Vy + σ Vyy +σ˜ πt Xt Vxy )d
           ˜                   σ˜ ˜ ˜         ˜
         + Vy (dLt − dUt ) + (˜ πt Xt Vx + σ Vy )dWt ,

     ˜
   • V supermartingale for any strategy, martingale for optimal strategy.
   • HJB equation:

              ˜      ˜ µ˜ ˜ ˜2 ˜             ˜         2
                                                         ˜     2
                                                                 ˜    σ˜ ˜
        supπ (Vt +rx Vx +˜π x Vx + σ π 2 x 2 Vxx +(µ− σ )Vy + σ Vyy +σ˜ π x Vxy ) = 0
           ˜                       2                  2       2

        with Neumann boundary conditions
                                 ˜        ˜
                                 Vy (0) = Vy (log(u/l)) = 0.
Model                   Results                           Heuristics                          Method



                                   Homogeneity
                                ˜
   • Homogeneous value function V (t, x, y ) = x 1−γ v (t, y ) implies:
                                                     ˜
                                          1    µ˜      ˜
                                                     σ vy
                                   πt =
                                   ˜             2
                                                   +              .
                                          γ    σ
                                               ˜     ˜ ˜
                                                     σ v
   • Plugging equality back into the HJB equation:
                                                                                        2
                                   σ2          σ2       1−γ                 µ˜     ˜
                                                                                   vy
        ˜             ˜
        vt + (1 − γ)r v + µ −           ˜
                                        vy +      ˜
                                                  vyy +                         +σ          ˜
                                                                                            v = 0.
                                   2           2         2γ                 σ
                                                                            ˜ 2    ˜
                                                                                   v
   • Certainty equivalent rate β = (µ2 − λ2 )/(2γσ 2 ) for shadow market
        must be the same as for transaction cost market. Set
                                                                      y
                                                                          ˜
                      v (t, y ) = e−(1−γ)(β+r )t e(1−γ)
                      ˜                                                   w(z)dz
                                                                                   ,
           ˜ ˜            ˜
   • Since vy /v = (1 − γ)w, equation reduces to Riccati ODE
                                                                                        2
                                  2µ             2β        1       µ
                                                                   ˜
         w + (1 − γ)w 2 +
         ˜          ˜             σ2
                                          ˜
                                       −1 w −    σ2
                                                      +   γσ 2     σ
                                                                   ˜
                                                                                    ˜
                                                                          + σ(1 − γ)w       =0
                                 ˜      ˜
        with boundary conditions w(0) = w(log(u/l)) = 0.
Model                    Results                    Heuristics                Method



                       Matching HJB Equations
   • Shadow market value function
                                                                 y
                       Vt = e−(1−γ)(β+r )t Xt1−γ e(1−γ)
                       ˜                   ˜                         ˜
                                                                     w(z)dz

        must coincide with transaction cost value function:
                                                                     y
                    Vt = e−(1−γ)(β+r )t (Xt0 )1−γ e(1−γ) w(z)dz
                        ˜
   • X 0 safe position, X shadow wealth. Related by
                    ˜
                   Xt                 ˜
                          ϕ0 S 0 + ϕt St
                       = t t0 0          = 1 + g(eYt )l = φ(Yt ).
                   Xt0        ϕt St
               ˜
   • Condition V = V implies that
                                               y
                    0 = log (1 + g(ey )l) +         ˜
                                                   (w(z) − w(z))dz,

   • Which in turn means that
                                      g (ey )ey l            φ (y )
                    ˜
                    w(y ) = w(y ) −           y )l
                                                   = w(y ) −        .
                                      1 + g(e                φ(y )
Model                  Results                     Heuristics              Method



                         Shadow price ODE
          ˜                  ˜
   • Plug w(y ) into ODE for w, use ODE for w, and simplify. Result:

                                                                2
                                        µ(y )
                                         ˜       g (ey )ey l
                   (1 − γ)w(y ) +              −                    = 0.
                                        σ˜ (y ) 1 + g(ey )l
                                         σ

   • Plug µ(y ) and σ (y ) to obtain (ugly) ODE for g:
          ˜         ˜

              g (ey )ey   2g (ey )ey l  2µ
                    y)
                        −         y )l
                                       + 2 + 2(1 − γ)w(y ) = 0.
               g (e       1 + g(e       σ
                           1+g(e )ly
   • Substitution k (y ) = g (ey )ey l makes ODE linear:

                                       2µ
                 k (y ) = k (y )          − 1 + 2(1 − γ)w(y ) − 1.
                                       σ2
Model                     Results                                    Heuristics                               Method



                                  Explicit Solutions
   • First, solve ODE for w(x, λ). Solution (for positive discriminant):

                              a(λ) tan[tan−1 ( b(λ) ) + a(λ)x] + ( σ2 − 1 )
                                               a(λ)
                                                                   µ
                                                                        2
                w(λ, x) =                                                                             ,
                                                               γ−1
        where
                              2       2                        2
                              −λ
         a(λ) =     (γ − 1) µγσ4 −                1
                                                  2   −   µ
                                                          σ2
                                                                   , b(λ) =       1
                                                                                  2   −   µ
                                                                                          σ2
                                                                                               + (γ − 1) µ−λ .
                                                                                                         γσ 2

   • Plug expression into ODE for k . Solution:
                                                                                                          2     2      2
        k (y ) = cos2 tan−1       b
                                  a       + ay         − a tan tan−1
                                                         1                        b
                                                                                  a   +ay + a2 + (aa2 (µ−λ)
                                                                                            b       +b )γσ


                                1             1                y 1
   • Plug into g(ey ) =        1−ε        +   l       exp      0 k (x) dx         − 1 , which yields:
                                                                                    l


                    1         γσ 2                                      1
         g(y ) =   1−ε   1+   µ−λ                                                                     −1
                                           1+ µ−λ
                                                2
                                                             b
                                                                 − 2a 2     tan[tan−1 ( b )+ay ]
                                                  γσ      b2 +a2  a +b                  a
Model                       Results                         Heuristics                               Method



                                       Verification

Theorem
                  ˜
The shadow payoff XT of π =
                        ˜                1   µ˜
                                                   + (1 − γ) σ w and the shadow
                                                               ˜
                                         γ   σ2
                                             ˜               σ
                                                             ˜
                                      · µ
                                        ˜                                           y
discount factor MT = E(−              0 σ dWt )T
                                        ˜
                                                                 ˜
                                                   satisfy (with q (y ) =               ˜
                                                                                        w(z)dz):

                 ˜ 1−γ =e(1−γ)βT E e(1−γ)(q (Y0 )−q (YT )) ,
               E XT              ˆ        ˜       ˜

                      1       γ                                                 γ
                   1− γ                                1     ˜       ˜
                                                     ( γ −1)(q (Y0 )−q (YT ))
             E MT                           ˆ
                                  =e(1−γ)βT E e                                     .

      ˆ                                                              ˆ
where E[·] is the expectation with respect to the myopic probability P:

         ˆ              T                                        T                      2
        dP                         µ
                                   ˜             1                       µ
                                                                         ˜
           = exp               −     + σ π dWt −
                                       ˜˜                            −     + σπ
                                                                             ˜˜             dt   .
        dP          0              σ
                                   ˜             2           0           σ
                                                                         ˜
Model                       Results                                 Heuristics                       Method



                                      First Bound (1)
     ˜ ˜ ˜ ˜
   • µ, σ , π , w functions of Yt . Argument omitted for brevity.
                                         ˜
   • For first bound, write shadow wealth X as:

          ˜ 1−γ                           T              σ2 2
                                                         ˜                                T
          XT = exp (1 − γ)                0       µπ −
                                                  ˜˜     2 π
                                                           ˜         dt + (1 − γ)         0   σ π dWt .
                                                                                              ˜˜

   • Hence:

                ˆ                                                                                2
         ˜ 1−γ                T                             σ2 2                        µ
                                                                                        ˜
         XT = d P exp
               dP             0        (1 − γ) µπ −
                                               ˜˜           ˜
                                                            2 π
                                                              ˜            +     1
                                                                                 2    − σ + σπ
                                                                                        ˜   ˜˜       dt
                             T                       µ
                                                     ˜
                 × exp       0        (1 − γ)˜ π − − σ + σ π
                                             σ˜      ˜   ˜˜                          dWt .

              1      µ˜
   • Plug π = γ
          ˜          σ2
                     ˜
                           + (1 − γ) σ w . Second integrand is −(1 − γ)σ w.
                                     σ
                                     ˜
                                       ˜                                 ˜
                          µ
                          ˜      2            2
   • First integrand is 1 σ2 + γ σ π 2 − γ µπ , which equals to
                        2˜
                                 ˜
                                 2 ˜       ˜˜
                 2                                          2
                           1−γ        µ
                                      ˜
        (1 − γ)2 σ w 2 +
                 2
                   ˜        2γ        σ
                                      ˜
                                                    ˜
                                          + σ(1 − γ)w           .
Model                         Results                             Heuristics                              Method



                                         First Bound (2)
                                1−γ
                 ˜
   • In summary, XT                      equals to:

           ˆ                     T                  2                                            2
          dP                                                      1       µ
                                                                          ˜
          dP    exp (1 − γ)      0        (1 − γ) σ w 2 +
                                                  2
                                                    ˜            2γ       σ
                                                                          ˜
                                                                                        ˜
                                                                              + σ(1 − γ)w                dt
                                     T
          × exp −(1 − γ)             0
                                           ˜
                                         σ wdWt .
                                               ˜      ˜
   • By Itô’s formula, and boundary conditions w(0) = w(log(u/l)) = 0,
                               T                        1   T
        ˜         ˜
        q (YT ) − q (Y0 ) =    0
                                     ˜
                                     w(Yt )dYt +        2   0
                                                                ˜
                                                                w (Yt )d Y , Y           t     ˜        ˜
                                                                                             + w(0)LT − w(u
                               T               σ2   ˜       σ2   ˜                  T
                                                                                          ˜
                         =     0          µ−   2    w+      2    w        dt +      0   σ wdWt .
                             T              ˜ 1−γ equals to:
                                 ˜
   • Use identity to replace 0 σ wdWt , and XT
            ˆ
           dP                        T
           dP   exp (1 − γ)          0
                                                                 ˜         ˜
                                         (β) dt) × exp (−(1 − γ)(q (YT ) − q (Y0 ))) .
            2                    2                                                                   2
                                                    σ2                1       µ
                                                                              ˜
     as σ w + (1 − γ) σ w 2 + µ −
         2
            ˜           2
                          ˜                         2
                                                            ˜
                                                            w+       2γ       σ
                                                                              ˜
                                                                                            ˜
                                                                                  + σ(1 − γ)w            = β.
   • First bound follows.
Model                              Results                            Heuristics                                  Method



                                             Second Bound
   • Argument for second bound similar.
                              · µ
                                ˜                            ˆ
   • Discount factor MT = E(− 0 σ dW )T , myopic probability P satisfy:
                                ˜
                1
             1− γ                 1−γ    T µ
                                           ˜             1−γ     T µ2
                                                                   ˜
        MT              = exp      γ     0 σ dW
                                           ˜         +    2γ     0 σ 2 dt
                                                                   ˜
                                                                              ,
              ˆ
             dP                   1−γ    T    µ
                                              ˜                         (1−γ)2       T       µ
                                                                                             ˜
                                                                                                             2
                = exp              γ     0    σ
                                              ˜
                                                        ˜
                                                    + σ w dWt −           2γ 2       0       σ
                                                                                             ˜
                                                                                                    ˜
                                                                                                 + σw            dt .
             dP
                             1
                          1− γ
   • Hence, MT                   equals to:
                                                                                                         2
         ˆ                         T                           T 1     µ2
        dP
        dP   exp − 1−γ
                    γ              0
                                          ˜
                                        σ wdWt +      1−γ
                                                       γ       0 2
                                                                       ˜
                                                                       σ2
                                                                       ˜
                                                                            +     1−γ
                                                                                   γ
                                                                                         µ
                                                                                         ˜
                                                                                         σ
                                                                                         ˜
                                                                                                ˜
                                                                                             + σw                dt .

                    2                          2                                                                      2
   • Note σ2 + 1−γ
          µ
          ˜
          ˜     γ
                                   µ
                                   ˜
                                   σ
                                   ˜
                                          ˜
                                       + σw         = (1 − γ)σ 2 w 2 +
                                                                 ˜              1
                                                                                γ
                                                                                     µ
                                                                                     ˜
                                                                                     σ
                                                                                     ˜
                                                                                                   ˜
                                                                                         + σ(1 − γ)w
          T
              ˜      ˜         ˜         T
   • Plug 0 σ wdWt = q (YT ) − q (Y0 ) − 0                                          σ2   ˜        σ2 ˜
                                                                            µ−      2    w+       2 w            dt
                                                1
                                             1− γ        ˆ
                                                        dP
                                                               1−γ
                                                                   βT − 1−γ (q (YT )−q (Y0 ))
                                                                             ˜       ˜
   • HJB equation yields MT                         =   dP e
                                                                γ        γ                        .
Model                   Results                 Heuristics            Method



                                  Conclusion


   • Portfolio choice with transaction costs.
   • Constant risk aversion and long horizon.
   • Formulas for trading boundaries, certainty equivalent rate, liquidity
        premium and trading volume. All in terms of gap parameter.
   • Gap identified as solution of scalar equation.
   • Expansion for gap yield asymptotics for all quantities.
   • Verification by shadow price.
   • Shadow price also explicit.

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Transaction Costs Made Tractable

  • 1. Model Results Heuristics Method Transaction Costs Made Tractable Paolo Guasoni Stefan Gerhold Johannes Muhle-Karbe Walter Schachermayer Boston University and Dublin City University Stochastic Analysis in Insurance and Finance University of Michigan at Ann Arbor, May 17th , 2011
  • 2. Model Results Heuristics Method Outline • Motivation: Trading Bounds, Liquidity Premia, and Trading Volume. • Model: Constant investment opportunities and risk aversion. • Results: Explicit formulas. Asymptotics. • Method: Shadow Price and long-run optimality.
  • 3. Model Results Heuristics Method Transaction Costs • Classical portfolio choice: 1 Constant ratio of risky and safe assets. 2 Sharpe ratio alone determines discount factor. 3 Continuous rebalancing and infinite trading volume. • Transaction costs: 1 Variation in risky/safe ratio. Tradeoff between higher tracking error and higher costs. 2 Liquidity premium. Trading costs equivalent to lower expected return. 3 Finite trading volume. Understand dependence on model parameters. • Tractability?
  • 4. Model Results Heuristics Method Literature • Magill and Constantinides (1976): the no-trade region. • Constantinides (1986): no-trade region large, but liquidity premium small. • Davis and Norman (1990): rigorous solution. Algorithm for trading boundaries. • Taksar, Klass, and Assaf (1998), Dumas and Luciano (1991): long-run control argument. Numerical solution. • Shreve and Soner (1994): Viscosity solution. Utility impact of ε transaction cost of order ε2/3 • Janeˇ ek and Shreve (2004): c Trading boundaries of order ε1/3 . Asymptotic expansion. • Kallsen and Muhle-Karbe (2010), Gerhold, Muhle-Karbe and Schachermayer (2010): Logarithmic solution with shadow price. Asymptotics.
  • 5. Model Results Heuristics Method This Paper • Long-run portfolio choice. No consumption. • Constant relative risk aversion γ. • Explicit formulas for: 1 Trading boundaries. 2 Certainty equivalent rate (expected utility). 3 Trading volume (relative turnover). 4 Liquidity premium. In terms of gap parameter. • Expansion for gap yields asymptotics for all other quantities. Of any order. • Shadow price solution. Long-run verification theorem. • Shadow price also explicit.
  • 6. Model Results Heuristics Method Model • Safe rate r . • Ask (buying) price of risky asset: dSt = (r + µ)dt + σdWt St • Bid price (1 − ε)St . ε is the spread. • Investor with power utility U(x) = x 1−γ /(1 − γ). • Maximize certainty equivalent rate (Dumas and Luciano, 1991): 1 1 1−γ 1−γ max lim log E XT π T →∞ T
  • 7. Model Results Heuristics Method Welfare, Liquidity Premium, Trading Theorem Trading the risky asset with transaction costs is equivalent to: • investing all wealth at hypothetical safe certainty equivalent rate µ2 − λ 2 CeR = r + 2γσ 2 • trading a hypothetical asset, at no transaction costs, with same volatility σ, but expected return decreased by the liquidity premium LiP = µ − µ2 − λ 2 . • Optimal to keep risky weight within buy and sell boundaries (evaluated at buy and sell prices respectively) µ−λ µ+λ π− = , π+ = , γσ 2 γσ 2
  • 8. Model Results Heuristics Method Gap Theorem • λ identified as unique value for which solution of Cauchy problem 2µ µ−λ µ+λ w (x) + (1 − γ)w(x)2 + − 1 w(x) − γ =0 σ2 γσ 2 γσ 2 µ−λ w(0) = , γσ 2 satisfies the terminal value condition: µ+λ u(λ) 1 (µ+λ)(µ−λ−γσ 2 ) w(log(u(λ)/l(λ))) = γσ 2 , where l(λ) = 1−ε (µ−λ)(µ+λ−γσ 2 ) . • Asymptotic expansion: 1/3 λ = γσ 2 3 2 4γ π∗ (1 − π ∗ )2 ε1/3 + O(ε).
  • 9. Model Results Heuristics Method Trading Volume Theorem • Share turnover (shares traded d||ϕ||t divided by shares held |ϕt |). 1 T d ϕ t σ2 2µ 1−π− 1−π+ ShT = lim 0 |ϕt | = σ2 −1 2µ − 2µ . T →∞ T 2 −1 (u/l) σ2 −1 (u/l) 1− σ2 −1 • Wealth turnover, (wealth traded divided by the wealth held): 1 T (1−ε)St dϕ↓ T St dϕ↑ WeT = lim t 0 ϕ0 St0 +ϕt (1−ε)St + t 0 ϕ0 St0 +ϕt St T →∞ T t t σ2 2µ π− (1−π− ) π+ (1−π+ ) = 2 σ2 −1 2µ −1 − 1− 2µ . (u/l) σ2 −1 (u/l) σ2 −1
  • 10. Model Results Heuristics Method Asymptotics 1/3 3 2 π± = π∗ ± π (1 − π∗ )2 ε1/3 + O(ε). 4γ ∗ 2/3 µ2 γσ 2 3 2 CeR = r + − π (1 − π∗ )2 ε2/3 + O(ε4/3 ). 2γσ 2 2 4γ ∗ 2/3 µ 3 2 LiP = π (1 − π∗ )2 ε2/3 + O(ε4/3 ). 2π∗2 4γ ∗ −1/3 σ2 3 2 ShT = (1 − π∗ )2 π∗ π (1 − π∗ )2 ε−1/3 + O(ε1/3 ) 2 4γ ∗ 2/3 γσ 2 3 2 WeT = π (1 − π∗ )2 ε−1/3 + O(ε). 3 4γ ∗
  • 11. Model Results Heuristics Method Implications • λ/σ 2 depends on mean-variance ratio µ = µ/σ 2 . Only. ¯ • Trading boundaries depend only on µ. ¯ • Certainty equivalent, liquidity premium, volume per unit variance depend only on µ. ¯ • Interpretation: certainty equivalent, liquidity premium, volume t 2 proportional to business time 0 σs ds. Trading strategy invariant. • All results extend to St such that: dSt = (r + µσt )dt + σt dWt ¯ St 1 T with σt independent of Wt and ergodic (limT →∞ T 0 σt2 dt = σ 2 ). ¯ • Same formulas hold, replacing µ/σ 2 with µ, and residual factor σ 2 with σ 2 . ¯ ¯
  • 12. Model Results Heuristics Method Trading Boundaries v. Spread 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.60 0.55 0.50 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 µ = 8%, σ = 16%, γ = 5. Zero discount rate for consumption.
  • 13. Model Results Heuristics Method Liquidity Premium v. Spread 0.012 0.010 0.008 0.006 0.004 0.002 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 µ = 8%, σ = 16%. γ = 5, 1, 0.5.
  • 14. Model Results Heuristics Method Liquidity Premium v. Risk Aversion 0.010 0.008 0.006 0.004 0.002 0.000 0 2 4 6 8 10 µ = 8%, σ = 16%. ε = 0.01%, 0.1%, 1%, 10%.
  • 15. Model Results Heuristics Method Share Turnover v. Risk Aversion 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0 2 4 6 8 10 µ = 8%, σ = 16%, γ = 5. ε = 0.01%, 0.1%, 1%, 10%.
  • 16. Model Results Heuristics Method Wealth Turnover v. Risk Aversion 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0 2 4 6 8 10 µ = 8%, σ = 16%, γ = 5. ε = 0.01%, 0.1%, 1%, 10%.
  • 17. Model Results Heuristics Method Welfare, Volume, and Spread • Liquidity premium and share turnover: LiP 3 = ε + O(ε5/3 ) ShT 4 • Certainty equivalent rate and wealth turnover: µ2 (r + γσ 2 ) − CeR 3 = ε + O(ε5/3 ). WeT 4 • Two relations, one meaning. • Welfare effect proportional to spread, holding volume constant. • For same welfare, spread and volume inversely proportional. • Relations independent of market and preference parameters. • 3/4 universal constant.
  • 18. Model Results Heuristics Method Wealth Dynamics • Number of shares must have a.s. locally finite variation. • Otherwise infinite costs in finite time. • Strategy: predictable process (ϕ0 , ϕ) of finite variation. • ϕ0 units of safe asset. ϕt shares of risky asset at time t. t • ϕt = ϕ↑ − ϕ↓ . Shares bought ϕ↑ minus shares sold ϕ↓ . t t t t • Self-financing condition: St St dϕ0 = − t 0 dϕ↑ + (1 − ε) 0 dϕ↓ t St St • Xt0 = ϕ0 St0 , Xt = ϕt St safe and risky wealth, at ask price St . t dXt0 =rXt0 dt − St dϕ↑ + (1 − ε)St dϕ↓ , t t dXt =(µ + r )Xt dt + σXt dWt + St dϕ↑ − St dϕ↓ t
  • 19. Model Results Heuristics Method Control Argument • V (t, x, y ) value function. Depends on time, and on asset positions. • By Itô’s formula: 1 dV (t, Xt0 , Xt ) = Vt dt + Vx dXt0 + Vy dXt + Vyy d X , X t 2 σ2 2 = Vt + rXt0 Vx + (µ + r )Xt Vy + X Vyy dt 2 t + St (Vy − Vx )dϕ↑ + St ((1 − ε)Vx − Vy )dϕ↓ + σXt dWt t t • V (t, Xt0 , Xt ) supermartingale for any ϕ. • ϕ↑ , ϕ↓ increasing, hence Vy − Vx ≤ 0 and (1 − ε)Vx − Vy ≤ 0 Vx 1 1≤ ≤ Vy 1−ε
  • 20. Model Results Heuristics Method No Trade Region V 1 • When 1 ≤ Vx ≤ 1−ε does not bind, drift is zero: y σ2 2 Vx 1 Vt + rXt0 Vx + (µ + r )Xt Vy + Xt Vyy = 0 if 1 < < . 2 Vy 1−ε • This is the no-trade region. • Ansatz: value function homogeneous in wealth. Grows exponentially with the horizon. V (t, Xt0 , Xt ) = (Xt0 )1−γ v (Xt /Xt0 )e−(1−γ)(β+r )t • Set z = y /x. For 1 + z < (1−γ)v (z) < 1−ε + z, HJB equation is v (z) 1 σ2 2 z v (z) + µzv (z) − (1 − γ)βv (z) = 0 2 • Linear second order ODE. But β unknown.
  • 21. Model Results Heuristics Method Smooth Pasting • Suppose 1 + z < (1−γ)v (z) < 1−ε + z same as l ≤ z ≤ u. v (z) 1 • For l < u to be found. Free boundary problem: σ2 2 z v (z) + µzv (z) − (1 − γ)βv (z) = 0 if l < z < u, 2 (1 + l)v (l) − (1 − γ)v (l) = 0, (1/(1 − ε) + u)v (u) − (1 − γ)v (u) = 0. • Conditions not enough to find solution. Matched for any l, u. • Smooth pasting conditions. • Differentiate boundary conditions with respect to l and u: (1 + l)v (l) + γv (l) = 0, (1/(1 − ε) + u)v (u) + γv (u) = 0.
  • 22. Model Results Heuristics Method Solution Procedure • Unknown: trading boundaries l, u and rate β. • Strategy: find l, u in terms of β. • Free bounday problem becomes fixed boundary problem. • Find unique β that solves this problem.
  • 23. Model Results Heuristics Method Trading Boundaries • Plug smooth-pasting into boundary, and result into ODE. Obtain: 2 l 2 l − σ (1 − γ)γ (1+l)2 v + µ(1 − γ) 1+l v − (1 − γ)βv = 0. 2 • Setting π− = l/(1 + l), and factoring out (1 − γ)v : γσ 2 2 − π + µπ− − β = 0. 2 − • π− risky weight on buy boundary, using ask price. • Same argument for u. Other solution to quadratic equation is: u(1−ε) π+ = 1+u(1−ε) , • π+ risky weight on sell boundary, using bid price.
  • 24. Model Results Heuristics Method Gap • Optimal policy: buy when “ask" weight falls below π− , sell when “bid" weight rises above π+ . Do nothing in between. • π− and π+ solve same quadratic equation. Related to β via µ µ2 − 2βγσ 2 π± = ± . γσ 2 γσ 2 • Set β = (µ2 − λ2 )/2γσ 2 . β = µ2 /2γσ 2 without transaction costs. • Investor indifferent between trading with transaction costs asset with volatility σ and excess return µ, and... • ...trading hypothetical frictionless asset, with excess return µ2 − λ2 and same volatility σ. • µ− µ2 − λ2 is liquidity premium. • With this notation, buy and sell boundaries are π± = µ±λ . γσ 2
  • 25. Model Results Heuristics Method Symmetric Trading Boundaries • Trading boundaries symmetric around frictionless weight µ/γσ 2 . • Each boundary corresponds to classical solution, in which expected return is increased or decreased by the gap λ. • With l(λ), u(λ) identified by π± in terms of λ, it remains to find λ. • This is where the trouble is.
  • 26. Model Results Heuristics Method First Order ODE • Use substitution: log(z/l(λ)) w(y )dy , l(λ)ey v (l(λ)ey ) v (z) = e(1−γ) i.e. w(y ) = (1−γ)v (l(λ)ey ) • Then linear decond order ODE becomes first order Riccati ODE 2µ µ−λ µ+λ w (x) + (1 − γ)w(x)2 + σ2 − 1 w(x) − γ γσ 2 γσ 2 =0 µ−λ w(0) = γσ 2 µ+λ w(log(u(λ)/l(λ))) = γσ 2 u(λ) 1 π+ (1−π− ) 1 (µ+λ)(µ−λ−γσ 2 ) where l(λ) = 1−ε π− (1−π+ ) = 1−ε (µ−λ)(µ+λ−γσ 2 ) . • For each λ, initial value problem has solution w(λ, ·). • λ identified by second boundary w(λ, log(u(λ)/l(λ))) = µ+λ . γσ 2
  • 27. Model Results Heuristics Method Shadow Market • Find shadow price to make argument rigorous. ˜ • Hypothetical price S of frictionless risky asset, such that trading in ˜ S withut transaction costs is equivalent to trading in S with transaction costs. For optimal policy. • For all other policies, shadow market is better. • Use frictionless theory to show that candidate optimal policy is optimal in shadow market. • Then it is optimal also in transaction costs market.
  • 28. Model Results Heuristics Method Shadow Price Form • Look for a shadow price of the form ˜ St St = Y g(eYt ) e t eYt = (Xt /Xt0 )/l ratio between risky and safe positions at mid-price S, and centered at the buying boundary π− (µ − λ) l= = 2 − (µ − λ) . 1 − π− γσ • Idea: risky/safe ratio is the state variable of the shadow market. • Shadow price has stochastic investment opportunities. • Numbers of units ϕ0 and ϕ remain constant inside no-trade region. • Y = log(ϕ/lϕ0 ) + log(S/S 0 ) follows Brownian motion with drift.
  • 29. Model Results Heuristics Method Shadow Price at Trading Boundaries • Y must remain in [0, log(u/l)], so Y reflected at boundaries: dYt = (µ − σ 2 /2)dt + σdWt + dLt − dUt , for L, U that only increase when {Yt = 0} and {Yt = log(u/l)}. • g : [1, u/l] → [1, (1 − ε)u/l] satisfies conditions g(1) =1 g(u/l) =(1 − ε)u/l g (1) =1 g (u/l) =1 − ε. ˜ • Boundary conditions: S equals bid and the ask at boundaries. ˜ • Smooth-pasting: diffusion of S/S zero at boundaries.
  • 30. Model Results Heuristics Method Shadow Price ˜ • Itô’s formula and conditions on g imply that S satisfies: ˜ ˜ d St /St = (˜(Yt ) + r )dt + σ (Yt )dWt , µ ˜ where 2 µg (ey )ey + σ g (ey )e2y 2 σg (ey )ey µ(y ) = ˜ , and σ (y ) = ˜ . g(ey ) g(ey ) ˜ • Local time terms vanish in the dynamics of S. • How to find function g? • First derive the HJB equation for generic g. • Then, compare HJB equation to that for transaction cost problem. • Value function must be the same. Matching the two HJB equations identifies the function g.
  • 31. Model Results Heuristics Method Shadow HJB Equation • Shadow wealth process of policy π is: ˜ ˜ ˜ ˜ ˜ ˜ ˜˜ ˜ d Xt = r Xt dt + πt µ(Yt )Xt dt + πt σ (Yt )Xt dWt . ˜ ˜ ˜ ˜ • Setting Vt = V (t, Xt , Yt ), Itô’s formula yields for d Vt : ˜ ˜ ˜ ˜2 2 2 ˜˜ ˜ ˜ 2 ˜ ˜ ˜ 2 ˜ 2 ˜ σ˜ ˜ ˜ (Vt + r Xt Vx + µπt Xt Vx + σ πt2 Xt2 Vxx +(µ−σ )Vy + σ Vyy +σ˜ πt Xt Vxy )d ˜ σ˜ ˜ ˜ ˜ + Vy (dLt − dUt ) + (˜ πt Xt Vx + σ Vy )dWt , ˜ • V supermartingale for any strategy, martingale for optimal strategy. • HJB equation: ˜ ˜ µ˜ ˜ ˜2 ˜ ˜ 2 ˜ 2 ˜ σ˜ ˜ supπ (Vt +rx Vx +˜π x Vx + σ π 2 x 2 Vxx +(µ− σ )Vy + σ Vyy +σ˜ π x Vxy ) = 0 ˜ 2 2 2 with Neumann boundary conditions ˜ ˜ Vy (0) = Vy (log(u/l)) = 0.
  • 32. Model Results Heuristics Method Homogeneity ˜ • Homogeneous value function V (t, x, y ) = x 1−γ v (t, y ) implies: ˜ 1 µ˜ ˜ σ vy πt = ˜ 2 + . γ σ ˜ ˜ ˜ σ v • Plugging equality back into the HJB equation: 2 σ2 σ2 1−γ µ˜ ˜ vy ˜ ˜ vt + (1 − γ)r v + µ − ˜ vy + ˜ vyy + +σ ˜ v = 0. 2 2 2γ σ ˜ 2 ˜ v • Certainty equivalent rate β = (µ2 − λ2 )/(2γσ 2 ) for shadow market must be the same as for transaction cost market. Set y ˜ v (t, y ) = e−(1−γ)(β+r )t e(1−γ) ˜ w(z)dz , ˜ ˜ ˜ • Since vy /v = (1 − γ)w, equation reduces to Riccati ODE 2 2µ 2β 1 µ ˜ w + (1 − γ)w 2 + ˜ ˜ σ2 ˜ −1 w − σ2 + γσ 2 σ ˜ ˜ + σ(1 − γ)w =0 ˜ ˜ with boundary conditions w(0) = w(log(u/l)) = 0.
  • 33. Model Results Heuristics Method Matching HJB Equations • Shadow market value function y Vt = e−(1−γ)(β+r )t Xt1−γ e(1−γ) ˜ ˜ ˜ w(z)dz must coincide with transaction cost value function: y Vt = e−(1−γ)(β+r )t (Xt0 )1−γ e(1−γ) w(z)dz ˜ • X 0 safe position, X shadow wealth. Related by ˜ Xt ˜ ϕ0 S 0 + ϕt St = t t0 0 = 1 + g(eYt )l = φ(Yt ). Xt0 ϕt St ˜ • Condition V = V implies that y 0 = log (1 + g(ey )l) + ˜ (w(z) − w(z))dz, • Which in turn means that g (ey )ey l φ (y ) ˜ w(y ) = w(y ) − y )l = w(y ) − . 1 + g(e φ(y )
  • 34. Model Results Heuristics Method Shadow price ODE ˜ ˜ • Plug w(y ) into ODE for w, use ODE for w, and simplify. Result: 2 µ(y ) ˜ g (ey )ey l (1 − γ)w(y ) + − = 0. σ˜ (y ) 1 + g(ey )l σ • Plug µ(y ) and σ (y ) to obtain (ugly) ODE for g: ˜ ˜ g (ey )ey 2g (ey )ey l 2µ y) − y )l + 2 + 2(1 − γ)w(y ) = 0. g (e 1 + g(e σ 1+g(e )ly • Substitution k (y ) = g (ey )ey l makes ODE linear: 2µ k (y ) = k (y ) − 1 + 2(1 − γ)w(y ) − 1. σ2
  • 35. Model Results Heuristics Method Explicit Solutions • First, solve ODE for w(x, λ). Solution (for positive discriminant): a(λ) tan[tan−1 ( b(λ) ) + a(λ)x] + ( σ2 − 1 ) a(λ) µ 2 w(λ, x) = , γ−1 where 2 2 2 −λ a(λ) = (γ − 1) µγσ4 − 1 2 − µ σ2 , b(λ) = 1 2 − µ σ2 + (γ − 1) µ−λ . γσ 2 • Plug expression into ODE for k . Solution: 2 2 2 k (y ) = cos2 tan−1 b a + ay − a tan tan−1 1 b a +ay + a2 + (aa2 (µ−λ) b +b )γσ 1 1 y 1 • Plug into g(ey ) = 1−ε + l exp 0 k (x) dx − 1 , which yields: l 1 γσ 2 1 g(y ) = 1−ε 1+ µ−λ −1 1+ µ−λ 2 b − 2a 2 tan[tan−1 ( b )+ay ] γσ b2 +a2 a +b a
  • 36. Model Results Heuristics Method Verification Theorem ˜ The shadow payoff XT of π = ˜ 1 µ˜ + (1 − γ) σ w and the shadow ˜ γ σ2 ˜ σ ˜ · µ ˜ y discount factor MT = E(− 0 σ dWt )T ˜ ˜ satisfy (with q (y ) = ˜ w(z)dz): ˜ 1−γ =e(1−γ)βT E e(1−γ)(q (Y0 )−q (YT )) , E XT ˆ ˜ ˜ 1 γ γ 1− γ 1 ˜ ˜ ( γ −1)(q (Y0 )−q (YT )) E MT ˆ =e(1−γ)βT E e . ˆ ˆ where E[·] is the expectation with respect to the myopic probability P: ˆ T T 2 dP µ ˜ 1 µ ˜ = exp − + σ π dWt − ˜˜ − + σπ ˜˜ dt . dP 0 σ ˜ 2 0 σ ˜
  • 37. Model Results Heuristics Method First Bound (1) ˜ ˜ ˜ ˜ • µ, σ , π , w functions of Yt . Argument omitted for brevity. ˜ • For first bound, write shadow wealth X as: ˜ 1−γ T σ2 2 ˜ T XT = exp (1 − γ) 0 µπ − ˜˜ 2 π ˜ dt + (1 − γ) 0 σ π dWt . ˜˜ • Hence: ˆ 2 ˜ 1−γ T σ2 2 µ ˜ XT = d P exp dP 0 (1 − γ) µπ − ˜˜ ˜ 2 π ˜ + 1 2 − σ + σπ ˜ ˜˜ dt T µ ˜ × exp 0 (1 − γ)˜ π − − σ + σ π σ˜ ˜ ˜˜ dWt . 1 µ˜ • Plug π = γ ˜ σ2 ˜ + (1 − γ) σ w . Second integrand is −(1 − γ)σ w. σ ˜ ˜ ˜ µ ˜ 2 2 • First integrand is 1 σ2 + γ σ π 2 − γ µπ , which equals to 2˜ ˜ 2 ˜ ˜˜ 2 2 1−γ µ ˜ (1 − γ)2 σ w 2 + 2 ˜ 2γ σ ˜ ˜ + σ(1 − γ)w .
  • 38. Model Results Heuristics Method First Bound (2) 1−γ ˜ • In summary, XT equals to: ˆ T 2 2 dP 1 µ ˜ dP exp (1 − γ) 0 (1 − γ) σ w 2 + 2 ˜ 2γ σ ˜ ˜ + σ(1 − γ)w dt T × exp −(1 − γ) 0 ˜ σ wdWt . ˜ ˜ • By Itô’s formula, and boundary conditions w(0) = w(log(u/l)) = 0, T 1 T ˜ ˜ q (YT ) − q (Y0 ) = 0 ˜ w(Yt )dYt + 2 0 ˜ w (Yt )d Y , Y t ˜ ˜ + w(0)LT − w(u T σ2 ˜ σ2 ˜ T ˜ = 0 µ− 2 w+ 2 w dt + 0 σ wdWt . T ˜ 1−γ equals to: ˜ • Use identity to replace 0 σ wdWt , and XT ˆ dP T dP exp (1 − γ) 0 ˜ ˜ (β) dt) × exp (−(1 − γ)(q (YT ) − q (Y0 ))) . 2 2 2 σ2 1 µ ˜ as σ w + (1 − γ) σ w 2 + µ − 2 ˜ 2 ˜ 2 ˜ w+ 2γ σ ˜ ˜ + σ(1 − γ)w = β. • First bound follows.
  • 39. Model Results Heuristics Method Second Bound • Argument for second bound similar. · µ ˜ ˆ • Discount factor MT = E(− 0 σ dW )T , myopic probability P satisfy: ˜ 1 1− γ 1−γ T µ ˜ 1−γ T µ2 ˜ MT = exp γ 0 σ dW ˜ + 2γ 0 σ 2 dt ˜ , ˆ dP 1−γ T µ ˜ (1−γ)2 T µ ˜ 2 = exp γ 0 σ ˜ ˜ + σ w dWt − 2γ 2 0 σ ˜ ˜ + σw dt . dP 1 1− γ • Hence, MT equals to: 2 ˆ T T 1 µ2 dP dP exp − 1−γ γ 0 ˜ σ wdWt + 1−γ γ 0 2 ˜ σ2 ˜ + 1−γ γ µ ˜ σ ˜ ˜ + σw dt . 2 2 2 • Note σ2 + 1−γ µ ˜ ˜ γ µ ˜ σ ˜ ˜ + σw = (1 − γ)σ 2 w 2 + ˜ 1 γ µ ˜ σ ˜ ˜ + σ(1 − γ)w T ˜ ˜ ˜ T • Plug 0 σ wdWt = q (YT ) − q (Y0 ) − 0 σ2 ˜ σ2 ˜ µ− 2 w+ 2 w dt 1 1− γ ˆ dP 1−γ βT − 1−γ (q (YT )−q (Y0 )) ˜ ˜ • HJB equation yields MT = dP e γ γ .
  • 40. Model Results Heuristics Method Conclusion • Portfolio choice with transaction costs. • Constant risk aversion and long horizon. • Formulas for trading boundaries, certainty equivalent rate, liquidity premium and trading volume. All in terms of gap parameter. • Gap identified as solution of scalar equation. • Expansion for gap yield asymptotics for all quantities. • Verification by shadow price. • Shadow price also explicit.