The document discusses systems thinking and key concepts about systems. It defines a system as (1) created by nature or humans, (2) physical, abstract, or composed of humans, (3) separated from its environment by a border, and (4) either open or closed. Systems are hierarchical and composed of subsystems. Open systems receive inputs from their environment, transform those inputs, produce outputs, and self-regulate to maintain homeostasis. Feedback loops are important for self-regulation and development. Learning systems can change over time based on experiences, while non-learning systems lack this ability.
The document discusses systems thinking and key concepts about systems. It defines a system as (1) created by nature or humans, (2) physical, abstract, or composed of humans, (3) separated from its environment by a border, and (4) either open or closed. Systems are hierarchical with different levels that influence levels below but cannot be directly derived from higher levels. The document contrasts mechanistic and systemic worldviews and discusses open systems, feedback, homeostasis, and learning systems.
The document discusses the Delphi technique, which is used to structure group communication to understand complex problems and future developments. It involves a panel of experts who evaluate a topic through multiple rounds of questionnaires and feedback. The technique aims to dig out new viewpoints rather than consensus. It allows anonymity, iteration of arguments, and learning as experts' views change in response to feedback. The document provides details on how Delphi studies are conducted, including selecting experts, conducting rounds of questioning and feedback, and analyzing responses. It traces the history and evolution of Delphi from its origins in ancient Greece to its development and modern use.
The document discusses systems thinking and key concepts about systems. It defines a system as (1) created by nature or humans, (2) physical, abstract, or composed of humans, (3) separated from its environment by a border, and (4) either open or closed. Systems are hierarchical and composed of subsystems. Open systems receive inputs from their environment, transform those inputs, produce outputs, and self-regulate to maintain homeostasis. Feedback loops are important for self-regulation and development. Learning systems can change over time based on experiences, while non-learning systems lack this ability.
The document discusses systems thinking and key concepts about systems. It defines a system as (1) created by nature or humans, (2) physical, abstract, or composed of humans, (3) separated from its environment by a border, and (4) either open or closed. Systems are hierarchical with different levels that influence levels below but cannot be directly derived from higher levels. The document contrasts mechanistic and systemic worldviews and discusses open systems, feedback, homeostasis, and learning systems.
The document discusses the Delphi technique, which is used to structure group communication to understand complex problems and future developments. It involves a panel of experts who evaluate a topic through multiple rounds of questionnaires and feedback. The technique aims to dig out new viewpoints rather than consensus. It allows anonymity, iteration of arguments, and learning as experts' views change in response to feedback. The document provides details on how Delphi studies are conducted, including selecting experts, conducting rounds of questioning and feedback, and analyzing responses. It traces the history and evolution of Delphi from its origins in ancient Greece to its development and modern use.
The Meaning of Value Consideration in Futures Studiesanita rubin
The document discusses several key topics related to futures studies and consideration of values:
1. Futures studies aims to explore possible, probable, and desirable futures in order to help decision-making and diminish unwanted consequences. It does this by considering values that guide choices.
2. Values play a role in selecting ideal outcomes and means to achieve them. However, determining what ought to be done based on factual statements about what is can be challenging.
3. Living with constant change and technology dependence has increased social vulnerability and weakened the meaningfulness of decisions as traditional social structures change. Reconsidering ethics and values is important in guiding choices with less routine guidance.
New, Better Human Beings? The Role of Values in Futures Studiesanita rubin
Flechtheim believed futurology could create a better future by solving problems, eliminating hunger/misery, fighting exploitation, democratizing society, and creating "Homo Humanus." His insights were that some problems are global, systems thinking is needed, understanding the present affects the future, and research requires normativity. Predictability, transformability, and desirability are three dimensions in approaching the future regarding values. Technocratic futures studies focused on predictions while humanistic studies emphasized alternative futures and values. Different knowledge interests in futures studies aim at technical, practical, critical, or intuitive understanding.
The document discusses various topics related to social change and futures studies. It covers:
1) Theories of social change that recognize both slow evolution and rapid evolutionary jumps. Society can develop through consensus or conflict.
2) Four traditions in futures inquiry: empirical, cultural, critical, and integral. The integral tradition incorporates different ways of knowing.
3) Challenges of decision-making in a changing social reality where established rationalities may no longer apply. New models and institutions are needed.
4) Technologies are shaped by social factors and their effects can be seen as social properties. Rapid technological and social changes blur understandings of cause and effect.
Flechtheim believed futurology could help prevent wars, abolish poverty, fight deprivation and exploitation, and create "Homo Humanus." His insights included viewing problems as universal, complex, and able to be influenced by understanding the present with a moral view. Futures studies is multidisciplinary, aiming for a holistic view by considering multiple viewpoints like social, technological, ecological, economic, and political factors. True interdisciplinarity involves interaction between scientists from different fields to understand problems in a systematic way from various angles.
2. 19.04.10 Mahdolliset ja todennäköiset tulevaisuudet NYKYHETKI Kaikki mitä voimme kuvitella (science fiction, myytit, sadut, tarinat, unet, jne.) Kaikki mikä on mahdollista (rajoina mm. luonnonlait jne.) Kaikki mikä on todennäköistä Toivottavat asiat Vältettävät asiat Neut-raalit asiat Kaikki sellainen, mikä on olemassa, mutta mitä emme osaa kuvitella.
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7. 19.04.10 Syklit ja muutos x MUTTA: Äkillinen muutos toimintaympäristössä Aika NYT Mennyt aika n Ennustettava aika n/2 Kun tunnetaan kehityskulku n määrätyssä ajassa, voidaan tulevaa kehitystä ennustaa puolet niin pitkä aika eteenpäin (n/2) > kehitys muuttuu ennustamattomaksi Syklien pituus on ennustettava (pysyy aina samana): esim. ns. Kondratieffin taloudellinen sykli kestää 55 vuotta.
8. 19.04.10 Trendien ennakointi Trendiekstrapolaatio on tulevaisuuden ennakoimista, joka perustuu oletukseen, että tietyt ilmiöt todennäköisesti jatkuvat tulevaisuudessa. Ennakoimisessa selvitetään myös ilmiön suunnan dynamiikkaa (suunnan ja vauhdin mahdollisia muutoksia). Trendit voivat olla siis nousevia, laskevia, murtuvia (=päättyviä) tai muuttumattomia. Esim: Muotivirtaus, mm. minihame Uutiset joka puolen tunnin välein Väestön ikääntyminen
10. 19.04.10 Heikko signaali on ensimmäinen ilmaus muutoksesta tai se voi olla juuri se sysäys, joka muuttaa tapahtumien kulkua ratkaisevasti erilaiseen suuntaan. Sen yhteyttä tulevaan tilanteeseen ei välttämättä voida perustella tilastollisesti uskottavalla jatkuvuudella kuten historiallisella aikasarjalla. Heikot signaalit
11. 19.04.10 Heikkojen signaalien jäljittäminen ja erilaisten ilmiöiden ymmärtäminen heikoiksi signaaleiksi muodostaa yhden haastavimmista tulevaisuudentutkimuksen osa-alueista. Heikon signaalin jäljitys edellyttää useiden erilaisten ilmiöiden tai ilmiöalueiden tuntemusta ja tarkastelua, jossa on erotettava subjektiivisesti ja objektiivisesti uudet ilmiöt . Synonyymi englanninkieliselle termille ”Emerging issues” Heikot signaalit ja tulevaisuudentutkimus
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13. 19.04.10 Megatrendejä kutsutaan usein myös kriittisiksi trendeiksi . Megatrendit muodostuvat useista samaan suuntaan kehittyvistä trendeistä -- ne ovat ikään kuin trendien kimppuja. Megatrendin määritys tieteellisen täsmällisesti on vaikeaa – pikemminkin ne ovat arkiajattelun työkaluja. Megatrendit Megatrendit ovat kehityksen suuria aaltoja tai linjoja ja ilmiöiden tunnistettavia ja havaittavan historian omaavia yhtenäisiä kokonaisuuksia, joilla on selkeä kehityssuunta.
14. 19.04.10 Silti niistä muodostuvalla kokonaisuudella voidaan nähdä oma kehityssuunta, jonka uskotaan usein jatkuvan samansuuntaisesti myös tulevaisuudessa. Megatrendin luonne Megatrendin suuntaa ei voida määritellä pelkästään tarkastelemalla yksittäisiä toimijoita tai tekijöitä, vaan megatrendi on makrotason ilmiöiden ja tapahtumakuvausten laaja kokonaisuus, joka sisältää useita erilaisia ja jopa toisilleen vastakkaisia alailmiöitä ja tapahtumaketjuja.
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18. 19.04.10 Heikon signaalin / villin kortin muuttuminen trendiksi aika hallinnon instituutiot Esiintymien lukumäärä; ilmiöstä tietämisen määrä tiedemiehet, taiteilijat, radikaalit,hullut asiantuntijat, tieteelliset julkaisut ja web-sivut tieteen populaarilehdet, web-sivut, tv-dokumentit sanomalehdet, uutiset, aikakauslehdet globaalisti levinnyt ilmiö, muuttunut trendiksi ja/tai osaksi megatrendiä useita havaittuja tapauksia, muuttumassa trendiksi VILLI KORTTI vain pari paikallista tapausta;