Seminar presented at the round table "Future of Food" in Columbia University - NY in may 2016.

1. Brazil's Progress Toward the Future of Agriculture
Cities’ Role Perspectives
Antonio Oliveira, Ph.D

2. CGEE - A Brief Description
CGEE ORIGINS
• Created in 2001
• Non-profit organization
• STI studies for economic
growth competitiveness and
well being in Brazil
CONTROLS
• Overseen by the Ministry of
Science Technology and
Innovation
• Subjected to auditing by
Brazilian Supreme Audit
Institutions
SIZE AND BUDGET
• Staff ~80 employees
• Annual budget 10M US$
STRENGTHS
• ~ 2000 experts from 300
institutions per year
• ~ 400 studies in Science
Technology and Innovation

3. To promote Science, Technology and Innovation to advance economic
growth, competitiveness and well-being in Brazil
Mission and core activities
Future Studies
Strategic Evaluation
Information and Knowledge Management
CGEE

4. The Study

5. Objective
Identifying integrated courses of action aiming at
strengthening Brazil's proactive role towards the
sustainability of food production

6. Main Challenges

7. 70%
100%
Developing
countries
world
2050
Em
tons of grains
1 billion
200 mi
tons of meat
Annual production must
increase at least¹:
Grain average growth²
Food demand
Challenges
¹ FAO 2013; ² FAO 2009;

8. Avoid food waste and losses
¹ FAO (201?); ² TESCO (2013);
World
30 – 50%
1,2 – 2 billion tons
per year
-25%
of waste
=
feed
500 milhões
people/year¹
14,5%
In UK (TESCO):
fruits and
vegetables
Waste in the UK²
21% 41% 50%
banana²backery items
1,5 Millions of
tons/year
Challenges

9. Workshop with specialists

10. Dimensions

11. Key Drivers

12. Drivers - Population growth
¹ FAO, 2009; ² UN data from Global Harvest Iniative GAP Report, 2011; ³ IBGE, 2013;
2050In
+ 2,3 billions¹ Major
population
growth²
total of 9,3 billions
41%
49%
“zero growth”
20502042
Brazil³
World
2013
201 mi
inhabitants
0 – 14
15 – 64
> 65
68,4%
7,4%
24,1%
63,2%
22,6%
14,1%
Demographic window
226 mi
inhabitants

13. ¹ FMI (2011)
per capita income (estimated)
39
em 2050
mil
(US$)
Brasil
Russia
China
Indonesia
India
100%
53%
85%
75%
67%
Brazil
World¹
Between 1990
and 2016
10.3
em 2013
mil
(US$) 21
em 2030
mil
(US$)
Drivers - per capita income growth

14. ¹ World Bank (2014); ² Painel Brasileiro de Mudanças Climáticas- PBMC (2013)
Soya
going
up
going
down
Sugarcane
+ =
35%
greenhouse
gases
emissions
Brazil²
World¹ | Greenhouse gases emissions (15%)
18%
enteric
fermentation
Estimated losses
in 2020: R$ 7,4 bilions
35% 20% 12%
Irrigated rice
(paddy)
Enteric fermentation Fertilizers
12%
Animal waste
Drivers - Global climate change

15. ¹Euromonitor (2012);
5 milhões
aging between
18 to 34 in 2010
270 million
people
in households occupied
by just one person
Brazil
World
10%
of households occupied
by just one person
searching for food easy
to prepare and consume
77%
28%
2006
Drivers - consumers habits and behaviors¹
Single person
household and
older people

16. Heathier food
Practical and convenience
Higher collective consciousness
Gourmet
Digital Cooking
Homemade
Vegetarianism
Health
Certified origin
Functional food
Good nutrition Easy preparation
Intelligent packaging
E-commerce
Personal satisfaction & collective well-being
Sustainability
Local production
Sensorial experiences
Differential in quality
Sophistication
Highly customized production (individual and industrial)
High variety of new ingredients
3D manufacturing
Cultural preferences
Homemade meals at working environments
Tradition
No animal protein intake (total or partial)
Animal protein substitutes (“fakemeat”)
Drivers - trends at consumers level

17. ¹ United Nations (2011); ² IBGE (2013)
Brazil²
1950 20502010
14% 6%
36,2%
Urban 70% Rural 30%
2012
2050
Urban 50% Rural 50%
World1
94%86%63,8%
urban
rural
Drivers - Urbanization

18. Analysis and interpretation

19. Pillars of Sustainable Food in Brazil
CT&I, educação e
capacidade
I
II
Viabilidade
econômica,sociale
ambiental
IIIInfraestrutura,
logísticaetecnologia
dainformação
VI
Consumo,saúdee
bem–estarV
Culturadecomércio
internacional
IV
Promoção de
empreendedorismo
Projeto alimentosSustainable
Food
Entrepreneurship
Science,
Technology,
Education and
Capacity
Building

20. External Agents of the Food Suply Chain
Certifying Agencies
Software industries
Regulatory
Agencies
International
Organizations
STI institutions
Funding
Agencies

21. Challenge: diversify food products in the market
Pilar I — STI, Education and Capacity Building
R&D applied to discovering new polymers
and substances obtained from biology
engineering platforms
Recommendation
Important to be competitive at
the 3D manufacturing market
Justification
Conclusion and Recommendations

22. Challenge: creating a competitive differential for the food industry
Pilar I — STI, Education and Capacity Building
Establish the carbon footprint in the
whole food chain
Recommendation
Selo Baixo Carbono, MMA; Coalizão
de Empresas pelo Clima, FBDS
Conclusion and Recommendations

23. The Role of Cities

24. The Role of Cities

25. Slide 25
§ 680 solutions organised in 12 interconnected themes
Results
5653 56 49 8460
38 78 63 415250
Energia
Health Agriculture Solid waste Water Security Governance
Built-in Environment Energy Economy Resilience Mobility Education

26. Slide 26
Urban &
Peri-urban
Agriculture
v Rooftop Farming
v Green Walls
v Green Belts
v Beekeeping
v Vertical Farming

27. Slide 27
Producers and
Consumers
Relationship
v Creation of cooperatives
v Agreements between
schools and small
farmers
v Online sales of products
v Municipal markets

28. Slide 28
Policies and
Programs
v Urban agriculture in city
planning
v tax incentives for production
urban and peri-urban food
v Regulate the re-location of the
food supply
v educational programs of
urban agriculture in
community spaces
v Food waste reduction

29. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pHcnhDtj2CU
How kids see the city of the future

30. Thanks for your attention
www.cgee.org.br
aoliveira@cgee.org.br