Medium-term agricultural outlook

1. Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa
will drive global growth
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Wheat Rice Maize Other
coarse
grains
Fresh dairy Meat Fish Roots and
tubers
Sugar Vegetable
oil
%
Rest of World OECD Southeast Asia Sub-Saharan Africa China India
Regional share in total demand growth, 2017-26

2. Asia continues to increase
calorie availability per capita
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2006 2016 2026 2006 2016 2026 2006 2016 2026 2006 2016 2026 2006 2016 2026
Sub-Saharan Africa India China Southeast Asia OECD
kcal/day/person
Other Fish Dairy Sugar Meat Vegetable oils Roots and tubers Cereals

3. Convergence in per capita food consumption
patterns remains limited
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Sub-Saharan
Africa
India China Southeast Asia OECD World
kg/cap
Fish Sheepmeat Beef and veal Pigmeat Poultry
Per capita food consumption, 2026

4. Global demand for feed will grow at a slower pace
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2006-16 2016-26
Mt
Rest of World OECD
Southeast Asia Sub-Saharan Africa
China India
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
China European
Union
United
States
Brazil
Mt
2014-16 2026
Regional share in total demand growth Feed demand in key consuming regions

5. Biofuels market is expected to slow down as well
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
bln L
World ethanol production
World biodiesel production
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
% Maize Sugarcane Vegetable oil
Biofuel production, 2000-26 Biofuel use as % of total demand

6. Fish production increases, driven by aquaculture
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026
Thousands
Aquaculture Total capture Capture for human consumptionMt
Global fish production, by source

7. Agricultural trade growth is slowing down
compared to last decade
- 4
- 2
0
2
4
6
8
Wheat
Maize
Othercoarsegrains
Rice
Soybean
Otheroilseeds
Vegetableoils
Proteinmeals
Whitesugar
Rawsugar
Poultry
Pork
Beef
Sheep
Butter
Cheese
Skimmilkpowder
Wholemilkpowder
Fish
Ethanol
Biodiesel
Cotton
Cereals Oilseeds Sugar Meat Dairy Biofuels
% 2007-16 2017-26
Growth in trade volumes, by commodity

8. Agricultural exports are concentrated
among a few key suppliers
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
%
5th exporter 4th exporter 3rd exporter 2nd exporter 1st exporter Top 5 in 2014-16
Export shares of top 5 exporters in 2026, by commodity

9. Real prices are expected to remain at,
or below, current levels
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026
Index (2014-16=100)
Cereals Dairy Meat Oilseeds
Medium-term evolution of commodity prices in real terms